TDF TT strategy

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Neptunium, Jul 18, 2003.

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  1. Neptunium

    Neptunium Guest

    when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo, "He
    has perfect tempo". To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he
    certainly deserves credit. But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it
    comes to the mountains. I expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he
    will sprint out to gain 2 minutes back over Jan tomorrow.
     
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  2. On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:10 +0000, NEPTUNIUM wrote:

    > when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    > loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    > there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo, "He
    > has perfect tempo". To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he
    > certainly deserves credit. But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it
    > comes to the mountains. I expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he
    > will sprint out to gain 2 minutes back over Jan tomorrow.

    Tomorrow the Loud Mouth will find out all about the Alamo
     
  3. Dave

    Dave Guest

    I agree completely. Lance is too good a tactician, and I suspect he knew Ullrich was going to go all
    out, especailly since it was reported (in Cycle Sport among other places) that Ullrich was trying to
    emulate Lance's high cadence pedaling style, which is very suitable for a TT. I believe Lance wanted
    to make sure he kept it close, and once he saw Ullrich's time (via radio) he knew what he had to do
    to stay with it and keep the yellow and not kill himself, and save it for the mountains and the
    final TT. Now Lance has a team that Ullrich does not to blow him apart in the mountains after he
    went all out today. I have a feeling tomorrow will be an outrageous race to watch. Heras, Pena,
    Beltran and Rubiera all working to burn up Ullrich while Lance watches and waits for his moment...

    --
    Dave [email protected] "NEPTUNIUM" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to
    do is
    > gloat about Lance loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did
    today
    > reflects what you will do tomorrow. there was a mention on OLN coverage of
    the
    > race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo, "He has perfect
    tempo".
    > To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he certainly deserves credit.
    > But tomorrow I question if he will have paid
    the
    > price for it when it comes to the mountains. I expect that Roberto will
    carry
    > Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he will sprint out to gain 2 minutes
    back
    > over Jan tomorrow.
     
  4. Traditionally, GC contenders don't hold back during time trials. It's not worth it.

    I just think Ullrich handled the heat well. Maybe Armstrong didn't. Armstrong still rode a solid
    time trial. Take Ullrich out of the standings, and the results look at least as good as last
    year's ITTs:

    http://www-tcad.stanford.edu/~djconnel/cycling/ITT1.pdf (revised)

    Dan

    Dave wrote:
    > I agree completely. Lance is too good a tactician, and I suspect he knew Ullrich was going to go
    > all out, especailly since it was reported (in Cycle Sport among other places) that Ullrich was
    > trying to emulate Lance's high cadence pedaling style, which is very suitable for a TT. I believe
    > Lance wanted to make sure he kept it close, and once he saw Ullrich's time (via radio) he knew
    > what he had to do to stay with it and keep the yellow and not kill himself, and save it for the
    > mountains and the final TT. Now Lance has a team that Ullrich does not to blow him apart in the
    > mountains after he went all out today. I have a feeling tomorrow will be an outrageous race to
    > watch. Heras, Pena, Beltran and Rubiera all working to burn up Ullrich while Lance watches and
    > waits for his moment...
     
  5. Warren

    Warren Guest

    In article <[email protected]>, Daniel Connelly
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    > Traditionally, GC contenders don't hold back during time trials. It's not worth it.

    Agree completely. Trying to get back the 1:35 Lance lost can be much harder on a climb when Ullrich
    knows he only has to stay on Lance's wheel (or claw his way back to it). These guys won't have any
    trouble recovering from the TT before tomorrow.

    -WG
     
  6. On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 16:55:49 -0400, "Dave" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >I agree completely. Lance is too good a tactician, and I suspect he knew Ullrich was going to go
    >all out, especailly since it was reported (in Cycle Sport among other places) that Ullrich was
    >trying to emulate Lance's high cadence pedaling style, which is very suitable for a TT.

    He hasn't done it. LA wasn't able to get into his high cadence, though.

    >went all out today. I have a feeling tomorrow will be an outrageous race to watch. Heras, Pena,
    >Beltran and Rubiera all working to burn up Ullrich while Lance watches and waits for his moment...

    ... and Ullrich will only watch Lance and let Heras, Pena et al. do whatever they want. He would
    take at least 5 minutes out of them in the next ITT anyway, so why hother.
     
  7. Java Man

    Java Man Guest

    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    > when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    > loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    > there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo, "He
    > has perfect tempo".

    I wouldn't put any stock in that.

    > To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he certainly deserves credit.
    > But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it comes to the mountains. I
    > expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he will sprint out to gain 2
    > minutes back over Jan tomorrow.
    >
    That is certainly possible, and we'll know within 14 hours.

    Rick
     
  8. Keith

    Keith Guest

    On 18 Jul 2003 20:39:10 GMT, [email protected] (NEPTUNIUM) wrote:

    >when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    >loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    >there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo, "He
    >has perfect tempo". To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he
    >certainly deserves credit. But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it
    >comes to the mountains. I expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he
    >will sprint out to gain 2 minutes back over Jan tomorrow.

    That's you right? Doesn't sound at all like Phil to make such a "predictive" comment. If anything
    Heras hasn't been up to much good this year unlike last year. He gets dropped much too early to be
    much of a factor. Good thing Beloki isn't here anymore to take over when Heras drops out.

    On top of that tomorrow's single Cat1 climb is 20+km from the top, so what you write doesn't make a
    lot of sense...
     
  9. Keith

    Keith Guest

    On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 22:43:56 GMT, Java Man (Espressopithecus) <[email protected]> wrote:

    >In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    >> when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    >> loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    >> there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo,
    >> "He has perfect tempo".
    >
    >I wouldn't put any stock in that.
    >
    >> To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he certainly deserves
    >> credit. But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it comes to the
    >> mountains. I expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he will sprint
    >> out to gain 2 minutes back over Jan tomorrow.
    >>
    >That is certainly possible, and we'll know within 14 hours.

    Make that 36, tomorrow's stage is NOT a mountain top finish. You guys should look at the stage
    profile...
    >
    >Rick
     
  10. Ewc

    Ewc Guest

    On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 21:24:51 GMT, warren <[email protected]> wrote:
    >Trying to get back the 1:35 Lance lost can be much harder on a climb when Ullrich knows he only has
    >to stay on Lance's wheel (or claw his way back to it).

    Assuming for the sake of argument that the next TT plays out exactly the same as today's, Lance
    needs to put over 1'02" on Ullrich in the mountains before then to keep the yellow from Ullrich, and
    Vinokourov needs 2'23" over Ullrich and 1'21" over Armstrong. So Ullrich just needs to limit his
    loses to Armstrong and Vino; Armstrong needs to attack Ullrich and limit his loses to Vino; and Vino
    needs to attack the other two.

    --
    EWC
     
  11. Nick Burns

    Nick Burns Guest

    "Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message

    <snip> Make that 36, tomorrow's stage is NOT a mountain top finish. You guys
    > should look at the stage profile...
    > >
    > >Rick

    Huh? One mountain up, then down and up a second one to finish at the top? What do you call that?
     
  12. EWC wrote:
    >
    > On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 21:24:51 GMT, warren <[email protected]> wrote:
    > >Trying to get back the 1:35 Lance lost can be much harder on a climb when Ullrich knows he only
    > >has to stay on Lance's wheel (or claw his way back to it).
    >
    > Assuming for the sake of argument that the next TT plays out exactly the same as today's, Lance
    > needs to put over 1'02" on Ullrich in the mountains before then to keep the yellow from Ullrich,
    > and Vinokourov needs 2'23" over Ullrich and 1'21" over Armstrong. So Ullrich just needs to limit
    > his loses to Armstrong and Vino; Armstrong needs to attack Ullrich and limit his loses to Vino;
    > and Vino needs to attack the other two.
    >
    > --
    > EWC

    In other words...

    We are going to see a bloodbath the next three days in the Pyrenees!

    Jow
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  13. Neptunium

    Neptunium Guest

    1.5 196.0 D.820 Bonascre
    ==================
    .0 197.5 AX 3 DOMAINES Finish 1e Sprint B
    ==================
    it looks like they will be in a tremendous climb. there is a sprint coming at the finish, a strategy
    could play out like this. lance knowing that the sprint is near will lead off and away from the
    leaders possibly by himself. 5 km is roughly 3 miles. by taking off at this point that would mean
    1.5 miles of accelerated climb. this burns out any competition with aching legs. the heat, the
    strain, weakens anybody following. 1.5 miles of sprint left, while others are still climbing lance
    is speeding away to the finish.
     
  14. Keith

    Keith Guest

    On 19 Jul 2003 06:25:20 GMT, [email protected] (NEPTUNIUM) wrote:

    >1.5 196.0 D.820 Bonascre
    >==================
    >.0 197.5 AX 3 DOMAINES Finish 1e Sprint B
    >==================
    >it looks like they will be in a tremendous climb. there is a sprint coming at the finish, a
    >strategy could play out like this.

    This is a BONUS sprint, none of the GC contenders pay attention to these ?!

    >lance knowing that the sprint is near will lead off and away from the leaders possibly by
    >himself. 5 km is roughly 3 miles. by taking off at this point that would mean 1.5 miles of
    >accelerated climb. this burns out any competition with aching legs. the heat, the strain, weakens
    >anybody following. 1.5 miles of sprint left, while others are still climbing lance is speeding
    >away to the finish.

    What are you on ?!
     
  15. Keith

    Keith Guest

    On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 00:29:12 GMT, "Nick Burns" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >
    >"Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    >
    ><snip> Make that 36, tomorrow's stage is NOT a mountain top finish. You guys
    >> should look at the stage profile...
    >> >
    >> >Rick
    >
    >Huh? One mountain up, then down and up a second one to finish at the top? What do you call that?

    I think you should visit an eye doctor - Today's stage - http://makeashorterlink.com/?F21F22155
    Tomorrow's stage - http://makeashorterlink.com/?T12F21155 Which one do you think will create the
    largest gaps...
     
  16. Spot

    Spot Guest

    On 18 Jul 2003 20:39:10 GMT, [email protected] (NEPTUNIUM) wrote:

    > But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it comes to the mountains.

    You think armstrong didn't ride a 100% effort?
     
  17. "Joseph Cipale" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > EWC wrote:
    > >
    > > On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 21:24:51 GMT, warren <[email protected]> wrote:
    > > >Trying to get back the 1:35 Lance lost can be much harder on a climb when Ullrich knows he only
    > > >has to stay on Lance's wheel (or claw his way back to it).
    > >
    > > Assuming for the sake of argument that the next TT plays out exactly the same as today's, Lance
    > > needs to put over 1'02" on Ullrich in the mountains before then to keep the yellow from Ullrich,
    > > and Vinokourov needs 2'23" over Ullrich and 1'21" over Armstrong. So Ullrich just needs to limit
    > > his loses to Armstrong and Vino; Armstrong needs to attack Ullrich and limit his loses to Vino;
    > > and Vino needs to attack the other two.
    > >
    > > --
    > > EWC
    >
    > In other words...
    >
    > We are going to see a bloodbath the next three days in the Pyrenees!

    This has the potential to be great. About time. Haven't had an exciting Tour since 1989.
     
  18. Nick Burns

    Nick Burns Guest

    "Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > On Sat, 19 Jul 2003 00:29:12 GMT, "Nick Burns" <[email protected]> wrote:
    >
    > >
    > >"Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > >
    > ><snip> Make that 36, tomorrow's stage is NOT a mountain top finish. You guys
    > >> should look at the stage profile...
    > >> >
    > >> >Rick
    > >
    > >Huh? One mountain up, then down and up a second one to finish at the top? What do you call that?
    >
    > I think you should visit an eye doctor - Today's stage - http://makeashorterlink.com/?F21F22155
    > Tomorrow's stage - http://makeashorterlink.com/?T12F21155 Which one do you think will create the
    > largest gaps...

    Dude, the first mountain is 2000 meters or more than 6000 feet! It is a ranked category 1 only
    because it is the first climb. It would be an HC if it was other than the first. Of the three, it is
    the easiest but that does not mean it is not a mountain stage. What kind of logic is that? You said:

    Make that 36, tomorrow's stage is NOT a mountain top finish. You guys
    > >> should look at the stage profile...

    Duh. It is a MOUNTAIN TOP FINISH.

    (and then he told me to get glasses...shit)
     
  19. Neptunium

    Neptunium Guest

    keith: take a chill pill. I don't claim to know everything. Of course you know more but that is how
    I am learning things. Your so mad that people don't know as much as you. Well God bless you man. I
    didn't know what sprint B meant until you said so. It's a bonus sprint. We got people talking about
    the Tour, mainly that is what is going on here.

    spot: Lance did try 100% no doubt about that but his mouth was dry as cardboard and his tongue stuck
    to the roof of his mouth. Is that a valid excuse? could be. so is a puncture, or chain derailing, or
    running into a spectator. the time you come in with is the time you get
     
  20. David Ryan

    David Ryan Guest

    Davey Crockett wrote:
    >
    > On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:10 +0000, NEPTUNIUM wrote:
    >
    > > when I read everybody's post today I cannot believe that all you want to do is gloat about Lance
    > > loosing out to Jan. But the point is that what you did today reflects what you will do tomorrow.
    > > there was a mention on OLN coverage of the race, and it was Phil that mentioned Lance's tempo,
    > > "He has perfect tempo". To get that extra 1:36 Jan must have had the best TT of his life and he
    > > certainly deserves credit. But tomorrow I question if he will have paid the price for it when it
    > > comes to the mountains. I expect that Roberto will carry Lance up to the last 5-6 km and then he
    > > will sprint out to gain 2 minutes back over Jan tomorrow.
    >
    > Tomorrow the Loud Mouth will find out all about the Alamo

    After the Alamo came San Jacinto....
     
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