TdF--two man race?

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by curt, Apr 25, 2004.

  1. curt

    curt Guest

    I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the TdF is
    between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow. Sure, Lance
    would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an awful lot
    of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the TdF is very long
    and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last year a couple of
    times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too close to the
    fans.

    I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour when
    so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have an
    outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is looking a
    little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is, he will show
    up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any
    younger.

    Curt
     
    Tags:


  2. lazysegall

    lazysegall Guest

    Curt wrote:
    > I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the
    > TdF is between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow. Sure,
    > Lance would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an
    > awful lot of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the
    > TdF is very long and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last year
    > a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too
    > close to the fans.
    > I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
    > when so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have
    > an outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is
    > looking a little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is,
    > he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not
    > getting any younger.
    > Curt




    I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The AP today put
    out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes, and we all know the other
    names, but if you'd like a disscussion.

    Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So there are clearly
    people out there and feel free to discuss them if you are so concerned



    --
     
  3. jim gravity

    jim gravity Guest

  4. curt

    curt Guest

    "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    > Curt wrote:
    > > I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the
    > > TdF is between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow.

    Sure,
    > > Lance would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an
    > > awful lot of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the
    > > TdF is very long and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last

    year
    > > a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too
    > > close to the fans.
    > > I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
    > > when so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and

    have
    > > an outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is
    > > looking a little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he

    is,
    > > he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not
    > > getting any younger.
    > > Curt

    >
    >
    >
    > I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The AP today put
    > out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes, and we all know the other
    > names, but if you'd like a disscussion.
    >
    > Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So there are clearly
    > people out there and feel free to discuss them if you are so concerned


    I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk about Lance and
    Jan as if they are the only two in the race. I personally think Lance is on
    his way out and someone will take him down this year or certainly the next
    if he even competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he will
    need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so many in a row as it
    is. As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and they most likely do
    not want to see a record six from an American. I would suspect that most of
    Europe would like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't blame
    them to be honest.

    This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking forward to it and
    hope we have some decent coverage and don't have to put up with some stupid
    major network taking over on the last day and not even showing the race.

    No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at other strong
    riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's name mentioned, so he is
    being looked at as a serious competitor.

    Curt
     
  5. "curt" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:al%[email protected]
    ><SNIP>>
    > I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour

    when
    > so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have an
    > outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is looking

    a
    > little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is, he will show
    > up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any
    > younger.

    <SNIP>

    If you are talking about all things being equal, who is capable of winning?
    I still think it comes down to Lance, Jan, and Vino on the outside. Showing
    good form on one stage when you're not considered a threat to the GC does
    not make you a Tour contender. The winner will probably be in the top three
    or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and have a team capable of chasing
    down attacks. This eliminates a lot of riders who will have success going
    after stages, but not the GC. Tyler Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a
    lot of his sucess will depend on how much support he gets from Oscar
    Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better chance this year if he stuck with CSC.
    I haven't seen anything from Liberty Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past)
    that makes me think they can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey.
    Euskatel will do well in the mountains, but give away time everywhere else.
    What other teams are out there that have a realistic shot?

    -T
     
  6. lazysegall

    lazysegall Guest

    wrote:
    > [
    > If you are talking about all things being equal, who is capable of
    > winning? I still think it comes down to Lance, Jan, and Vino on the
    > outside. Showing good form on one stage when you're not considered a
    > threat to the GC does not make you a Tour contender. The winner will
    > probably be in the top three or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and
    > have a team capable of chasing down attacks. This eliminates a lot of
    > riders who will have success going after stages, but not the GC. Tyler
    > Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a lot of his sucess will depend on
    > how much support he gets from Oscar Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better
    > chance this year if he stuck with CSC. I haven't seen anything from
    > Liberty Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past) that makes me think they
    > can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey. Euskatel will do well
    > in the mountains, but give away time everywhere else. What other teams
    > are out there that have a realistic shot?
    > -T




    I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the right light. You
    seem to think the the tour will be won by someone who can put in a
    credible threat to lance or Jan. The real question, however, is what if
    lance and Jan don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack
    what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then who can win?

    I sort of think that outside of those few names then that is the only
    way that someone besides lance, jan, tyler, vino can win. Remember that
    the TTT is capped at a 3 minute loss, and there is mtt. This might mean
    that a basque rider or heras is a legit threat. Furthermore, there might
    not even be an issue of say defending the yellow if it isn't a powerful
    team that has the jersey i.e. postal or telekom. Nonetheless, if Jan or
    Lance don't crack then I really don't see anyone beating them in a
    classic race besides Hamilton or Vino. I only say those two names
    because those guys can actually TT. If Lance and Jan do crack then it is
    wide open. Since no one else will put such significant time into the
    feild in tts then it could be a climbers race as well. I suppose if
    botero came on form then he could win a race that was pretty classic,
    but I seem to doubt that the third guy on telekom who looked terrible
    last year will really do that.



    --
     
  7. "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    >
    >
    >
    > I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the right light. You
    > seem to think the the tour will be won by someone who can put in a
    > credible threat to lance or Jan. The real question, however, is what if
    > lance and Jan don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack
    > what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then who can win?
    >


    That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck), But if past
    performance is any indication of future results, I don't think you'll see
    Lance or Jan crack. One of the things that impressed me last year (And
    hopefuly I've learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
    where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off the pace and
    ride tempo to the top. In both cases they limited their losses to a few
    seconds. A less experienced rider would have tried to hang on until they
    bonk.

    There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the mountains,
    but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are only a few who are
    there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
    unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or more) time off of
    Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they better not give up too much in the
    TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel riders will have.

    -T
     
  8. Michael

    Michael Guest

    "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    > There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the mountains,
    > but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are only a few who are
    > there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
    > unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or more) time off of
    > Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they better not give up too much in the
    > TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel riders will have.


    The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can bet
    they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a close race.
    Any of the following riders have a great chance:

    Final 8 from Last Year:

    1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
    2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
    3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
    4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
    5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
    6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
    7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
    8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

    Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability
    to break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
    other guys have the stuff to win.

    I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
    form, he would be included.

    Mike
     
  9. "Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]

    > The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can

    bet
    > they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a close

    race.
    > Any of the following riders have a great chance:
    >
    > Final 8 from Last Year:
    >
    > 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
    > 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
    > 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
    > 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
    > 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
    > 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
    > 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
    > 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
    >
    > Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability
    > to break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
    > other guys have the stuff to win.
    >
    > I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
    > form, he would be included.
    >
    > Mike



    I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to attack.
    Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
    for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs to
    stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for the
    whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
    wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
    (without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
    not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be back
    to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
    can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
    Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the top
    5.

    -T
     
  10. lazysegall

    lazysegall Guest

    Michael wrote:
    > "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:J-
    > [email protected]:Jnckc.57795$172.259-
    > [email protected]...
    > > There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the
    > > mountains, but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are
    > > only a few who are there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino,
    > > etc.) I think it's unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5
    > > minutes or more) time off of Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they
    > > better not give up too much in the TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel
    > > riders will have.

    > The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
    > bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a
    > close race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
    > Final 8 from Last Year:
    > 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
    > 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
    > 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
    > 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
    > 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
    > 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
    > 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
    > 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
    > Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability to
    > break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
    > other guys have the stuff to win.
    > I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
    > form, he would be included.
    > Mike




    Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the 7th best
    chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
    to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.



    --
     
  11. Michael

    Michael Guest

    "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]> Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe
    he has the 7th best
    > chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
    > to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.


    Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
    then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
    contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
    time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
    out year, but maybe not this year.

    Mike
     
  12. On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
    >Zubeldia and Mayo are
    >wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
    >(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.


    In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
    form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

    >Basso and Moreau are not threats.


    I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I have hope for
    him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the Ardennes classics, but
    we'll see how he does in Romandie. So far, so good.

    >Leipheimer could be a darkhorse


    Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to expect.
    Can't be worse than last year though.
     
  13. On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:44:30 GMT, Michael wrote:
    >Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
    >then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
    >contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
    >time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
    >out year, but maybe not this year.


    I'm not sure if you're being serious or not. I hope not.
     
  14. Tom Kunich

    Tom Kunich Guest

    "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    >
    > "Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > news:[email protected]
    >
    > > The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
    > > bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a

    close
    > > race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
    > >
    > > Final 8 from Last Year:
    > >
    > > 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
    > > 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
    > > 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
    > > 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
    > > 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
    > > 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
    > > 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
    > > 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
    > >

    > I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to

    attack.
    > Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
    > for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs

    to
    > stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for

    the
    > whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
    > wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
    > (without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
    > not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be

    back
    > to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
    > can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
    > Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the

    top
    > 5.


    IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino because
    he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.

    I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more on the order of 3-4
    minutes. There will be some 20 seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau
    de Beille, 30 seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe d'Huez
    and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance retires from the European
    peloton at the end of 2004 then perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if
    Lance is there I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what you
    hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark
    at 7 Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record forever.
     
  15. Tom Kunich

    Tom Kunich Guest

    "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    >
    > Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the 7th best
    > chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
    > to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.


    Heras is no threat at all. He's hellishly fast in super steep climbs but
    slow as snot elsewhere and he couldn't TT to save his ass on a flat road.

    Beloki will be a threat in 2005 if 2004 doesn't destroy his morale.

    Basso is on the edge of a breakthrough. He is just reaching the age where
    you'd expect him to start performing.

    Moreau is a very good rider who has a lot of potential still. I don't know
    what his training is like but I suspect that he could improve a hell of a
    lot with a first rate trainer. I think that you could tell a lot about
    European training methods by reading some of their statements: Roberto
    Laiseka said "They give me a training plan at the beginning of the year and
    I just throw it away. I know how to train." That's about the same thing I
    heard Alexi Grewal say one time. And we all know what a great career he had.
     
  16. jim gravity

    jim gravity Guest

    Tom Kunich wrote:
    > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
    > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
    > unbroken record forever.




    True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
    won #6 yet.

    I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
    that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
    restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?

    I can't.



    --
     
  17. Tom Kunich

    Tom Kunich Guest

    "jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    > Tom Kunich wrote:
    > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
    > > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
    > > unbroken record forever.

    >
    > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
    > won #6 yet.
    >
    > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
    > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
    > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
    >
    > I can't.


    Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
    ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
    saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.

    Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?
     
  18. Tom Kunich

    Tom Kunich Guest

    "Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    >
    > "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > news:[email protected]> Can you explain how

    Ivan basso would win? Maybe
    > he has the 7th best
    > > chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
    > > to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.

    >
    > Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
    > then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
    > contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
    > time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
    > out year, but maybe not this year.


    Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
    that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
    winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
    very well for that young man.
     
  19. lazysegall

    lazysegall Guest

    Tom Kunich wrote:
    > "jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:iW-
    > [email protected]:[email protected]
    > usenetserver.com...
    > > Tom Kunich wrote:
    > > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in
    > > > 2005 because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain
    > > > an unbroken record forever.

    > >
    > > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
    > > won #6 yet.
    > >
    > > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
    > > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
    > > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
    > >
    > > I can't.

    > Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going
    > to ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted
    > as saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
    > Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?




    Bike riders haven't quit at the top, but other superstar US atheletes
    have. I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
    better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
    always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
    canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.



    --
     
  20. psycholist

    psycholist Guest

    "Tom Kunich" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    > "jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > news:[email protected]
    > > Tom Kunich wrote:
    > > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in

    2005
    > > > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
    > > > unbroken record forever.

    > >
    > > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
    > > won #6 yet.
    > >
    > > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
    > > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
    > > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
    > >
    > > I can't.

    >
    > Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
    > ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
    > saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
    >
    > Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?
    >


    Bernard Hinault ... retired at 32 after helping LeMond win ... a promised
    payback. I think it could be argued that he was still at least very near
    the top of his game.

    Bob C.
     
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