TdF--two man race?

[curt]

I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the TdF is
between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow. Sure, Lance
would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an awful lot
of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the TdF is very long
and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last year a couple of
times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too close to the
fans.

I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour when
so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have an
outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is looking a
little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is, he will show
up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any
younger.

Curt

 

[lazysegall]

Curt wrote:
> I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the
> TdF is between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow. Sure,
> Lance would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an
> awful lot of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the
> TdF is very long and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last year
> a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too
> close to the fans.
> I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
> when so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have
> an outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is
> looking a little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is,
> he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not
> getting any younger.
> Curt



I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The AP today put
out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes, and we all know the other
names, but if you'd like a disscussion.

Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So there are clearly
people out there and feel free to discuss them if you are so concerned



--

 

[jim gravity]

"curt" <[email protected]> wrote in message

> Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any
> younger.
>
> Curt

Neither is Ulrich:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2004/apr04/apr26news

 

[curt]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Curt wrote:
> > I have been reading here for several months and keep reading that the
> > TdF is between Lance and Jan. I really find that hard to swallow.
Sure,
> > Lance would be the favorite and Jan second I suspect, but there are an
> > awful lot of very good competitors in the race and as we all know the
> > TdF is very long and anything can happen. Lance almost lost it last
year
> > a couple of times--going off course and taking a dive while riding too
> > close to the fans.
> > I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
> > when so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and
have
> > an outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is
> > looking a little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he
is,
> > he will show up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not
> > getting any younger.
> > Curt
>
>
>
> I think people are talking about more than just Lance. The AP today put
> out an article on Tyler and his tour hopes, and we all know the other
> names, but if you'd like a disscussion.
>
> Tyler, Heras, Vino, Beloki, the basque riders ect. So there are clearly
> people out there and feel free to discuss them if you are so concerned

I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk about Lance and
Jan as if they are the only two in the race. I personally think Lance is on
his way out and someone will take him down this year or certainly the next
if he even competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he will
need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so many in a row as it
is. As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and they most likely do
not want to see a record six from an American. I would suspect that most of
Europe would like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't blame
them to be honest.

This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking forward to it and
hope we have some decent coverage and don't have to put up with some stupid
major network taking over on the last day and not even showing the race.

No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at other strong
riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's name mentioned, so he is
being looked at as a serious competitor.

Curt

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"curt" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:al%[email protected]...
><SNIP>>
> I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to win the tour
when
> so much can go wrong. You can be in the shape of your life and have an
> outstanding team and still lose if you have some problems. Jan is looking
a
> little fat right now, but I am sure being the pro that he is, he will show
> up in great form. Lance does look strong, but he is not getting any
> younger.
<SNIP>

If you are talking about all things being equal, who is capable of winning?
I still think it comes down to Lance, Jan, and Vino on the outside. Showing
good form on one stage when you're not considered a threat to the GC does
not make you a Tour contender. The winner will probably be in the top three
or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and have a team capable of chasing
down attacks. This eliminates a lot of riders who will have success going
after stages, but not the GC. Tyler Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a
lot of his sucess will depend on how much support he gets from Oscar
Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better chance this year if he stuck with CSC.
I haven't seen anything from Liberty Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past)
that makes me think they can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey.
Euskatel will do well in the mountains, but give away time everywhere else.
What other teams are out there that have a realistic shot?

-T

 

[lazysegall]

wrote:
> [
> If you are talking about all things being equal, who is capable of
> winning? I still think it comes down to Lance, Jan, and Vino on the
> outside. Showing good form on one stage when you're not considered a
> threat to the GC does not make you a Tour contender. The winner will
> probably be in the top three or four in each of the TTs, climb well, and
> have a team capable of chasing down attacks. This eliminates a lot of
> riders who will have success going after stages, but not the GC. Tyler
> Hamilton is no spring chicken, and a lot of his sucess will depend on
> how much support he gets from Oscar Sevilla. Tyler mat have had a better
> chance this year if he stuck with CSC. I haven't seen anything from
> Liberty Seguros this year (or ONCE in the past) that makes me think they
> can control the race and defend the Yellow Jersey. Euskatel will do well
> in the mountains, but give away time everywhere else. What other teams
> are out there that have a realistic shot?
> -T



I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the right light. You
seem to think the the tour will be won by someone who can put in a
credible threat to lance or Jan. The real question, however, is what if
lance and Jan don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack
what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then who can win?

I sort of think that outside of those few names then that is the only
way that someone besides lance, jan, tyler, vino can win. Remember that
the TTT is capped at a 3 minute loss, and there is mtt. This might mean
that a basque rider or heras is a legit threat. Furthermore, there might
not even be an issue of say defending the yellow if it isn't a powerful
team that has the jersey i.e. postal or telekom. Nonetheless, if Jan or
Lance don't crack then I really don't see anyone beating them in a
classic race besides Hamilton or Vino. I only say those two names
because those guys can actually TT. If Lance and Jan do crack then it is
wide open. Since no one else will put such significant time into the
feild in tts then it could be a climbers race as well. I suppose if
botero came on form then he could win a race that was pretty classic,
but I seem to doubt that the third guy on telekom who looked terrible
last year will really do that.



--

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
>
> I don't think that you are looking at this Tour in the right light. You
> seem to think the the tour will be won by someone who can put in a
> credible threat to lance or Jan. The real question, however, is what if
> lance and Jan don't win. If Jan and Lance have terrible form and crack
> what happens? If they both lose 10 minutes one day then who can win?
>

That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck), But if past
performance is any indication of future results, I don't think you'll see
Lance or Jan crack. One of the things that impressed me last year (And
hopefuly I've learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off the pace and
ride tempo to the top. In both cases they limited their losses to a few
seconds. A less experienced rider would have tried to hang on until they
bonk.

There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the mountains,
but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are only a few who are
there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or more) time off of
Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they better not give up too much in the
TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel riders will have.

-T

 

[Michael]

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the mountains,
> but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are only a few who are
> there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino, etc.) I think it's
> unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5 minutes or more) time off of
> Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they better not give up too much in the
> TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel riders will have.

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can bet
they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a close race.
Any of the following riders have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability
to break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
other guys have the stuff to win.

I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
form, he would be included.

Mike

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

> The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
bet
> they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a close
race.
> Any of the following riders have a great chance:
>
> Final 8 from Last Year:
>
> 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
> 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
> 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
> 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
> 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
> 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
> 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
> 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
>
> Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability
> to break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
> other guys have the stuff to win.
>
> I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
> form, he would be included.
>
> Mike


I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to attack.
Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs to
stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for the
whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be back
to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the top
5.

-T

 

[lazysegall]

Michael wrote:
> "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:J-
> [email protected]:Jnckc.57795$172.259-
> [email protected]...
> > There are a lot of riders who have one or two good days in the
> > mountains, but give up 20-30 minutes on other stages. There are
> > only a few who are there for every stage (Lance, Jan, Tyler, Vino,
> > etc.) I think it's unlikely that any GC threat will take big (5
> > minutes or more) time off of Lance or Jan. If that's the case, they
> > better not give up too much in the TT's - A weakness the Eusaktel
> > riders will have.
> The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
> bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a
> close race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
> Final 8 from Last Year:
> 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
> 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
> 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
> 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
> 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
> 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
> 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
> 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
> Well, maybe not Moreau so much, but the other riders have the ability to
> break through and win it. I would like to see Armstrong win, but these
> other guys have the stuff to win.
> I asked earlier about Joseba Beloki. If he somehow manages to get into
> form, he would be included.
> Mike



Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the 7th best
chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.



--

 

[Michael]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...> Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe
he has the 7th best
> chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
> to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.

Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
out year, but maybe not this year.

Mike

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
>Zubeldia and Mayo are
>wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
>(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.

In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

>Basso and Moreau are not threats.

I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I have hope for
him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the Ardennes classics, but
we'll see how he does in Romandie. So far, so good.

>Leipheimer could be a darkhorse

Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to expect.
Can't be worse than last year though.

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:44:30 GMT, Michael wrote:
>Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
>then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
>contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
>time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
>out year, but maybe not this year.

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not. I hope not.

 

[Tom Kunich]

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
> > The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
> > bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a
close
> > race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
> >
> > Final 8 from Last Year:
> >
> > 1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
> > 2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
> > 3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
> > 4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
> > 5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
> > 6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
> > 7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
> > 8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
> >
> I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to
attack.
> Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
> for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs
to
> stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for
the
> whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
> wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
> (without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
> not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be
back
> to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
> can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
> Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the
top
> 5.

IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino because
he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.

I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more on the order of 3-4
minutes. There will be some 20 seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau
de Beille, 30 seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe d'Huez
and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance retires from the European
peloton at the end of 2004 then perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if
Lance is there I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what you
hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark
at 7 Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record forever.

 

[Tom Kunich]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Can you explain how Ivan basso would win? Maybe he has the 7th best
> chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
> to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.

Heras is no threat at all. He's hellishly fast in super steep climbs but
slow as snot elsewhere and he couldn't TT to save his ass on a flat road.

Beloki will be a threat in 2005 if 2004 doesn't destroy his morale.

Basso is on the edge of a breakthrough. He is just reaching the age where
you'd expect him to start performing.

Moreau is a very good rider who has a lot of potential still. I don't know
what his training is like but I suspect that he could improve a hell of a
lot with a first rate trainer. I think that you could tell a lot about
European training methods by reading some of their statements: Roberto
Laiseka said "They give me a training plan at the beginning of the year and
I just throw it away. I know how to train." That's about the same thing I
heard Alexi Grewal say one time. And we all know what a great career he had.

 

[jim gravity]

Tom Kunich wrote:
> Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
> because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> unbroken record forever.



True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?

I can't.



--

 

[Tom Kunich]

"jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Tom Kunich wrote:
> > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
> > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> > unbroken record forever.
>
> True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> won #6 yet.
>
> I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
>
> I can't.

Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.

Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?

 

[Tom Kunich]

"Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...> Can you explain how
Ivan basso would win? Maybe
> he has the 7th best
> > chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
> > to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.
>
> Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
> then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
> contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
> time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
> out year, but maybe not this year.

Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
very well for that young man.

 

[lazysegall]

Tom Kunich wrote:
> "jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:iW-
> [email protected]:[email protected]
> usenetserver.com...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in
> > > 2005 because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain
> > > an unbroken record forever.
> >
> > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> > won #6 yet.
> >
> > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
> >
> > I can't.
> Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going
> to ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted
> as saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
> Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?



Bike riders haven't quit at the top, but other superstar US atheletes
have. I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.



--

 

[psycholist]

"Tom Kunich" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "jim gravity" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in
2005
> > > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> > > unbroken record forever.
> >
> > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> > won #6 yet.
> >
> > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
> >
> > I can't.
>
> Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
> ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
> saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
>
> Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?
>

Bernard Hinault ... retired at 32 after helping LeMond win ... a promised
payback. I think it could be argued that he was still at least very near
the top of his game.

Bob C.