TdF--two man race?

[Michael]

"Tom Kunich" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

> Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
> that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
> winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
> very well for that young man.

I agree. I think he will do very well this year, and you never know what
will happen.

M.

 

[Richard Adams]

Tom Kunich wrote:

> "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>"Michael" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>news:[email protected]...
>>
>>
>>>The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
>>>bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a
>
> close
>
>>>race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
>>>
>>>Final 8 from Last Year:
>>>
>>>1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
>>>2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
>>>3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
>>>4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
>>>5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
>>>6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
>>>7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
>>>8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
>>>
>>
>>I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to
>
> attack.
>
>>Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
>>for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs
>
> to
>
>>stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for
>
> the
>
>>whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
>>wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
>>(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
>>not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be
>
> back
>
>>to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
>>can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
>>Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the
>
> top
>
>>5.
>
>
> IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino because
> he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
>
> I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more on the order of 3-4
> minutes. There will be some 20 seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau
> de Beille, 30 seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe d'Huez
> and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance retires from the European
> peloton at the end of 2004 then perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if
> Lance is there I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what you
> hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark
> at 7 Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record forever.

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

 

[lazysegall]

wrote:
> As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.



It might be Vino who ends as the T-mobile threat. Vino was third, Lance
will focus on Jan, and Jan's form is bad. Furthermore, Vino has been ok
in the early season...not bad, but he looks like a man ready to peak for
the tour...I would watch out and I will go out on a limb and say that he
has a better chance to "win" not finish second...i mean win than jan.



--

 

[Howard Kveck]

In article <[email protected]>,
Ewoud Dronkert <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> >Zubeldia and Mayo are
> >wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
> >(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.
>
> In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
> form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs, anyway.
In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
Hamilton).

> >Basso and Moreau are not threats.
>
> I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I have hope for
> him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the Ardennes classics, but
> we'll see how he does in Romandie. So far, so good.

Basso's still pretty young, and he does seem to be focusing on the Tour
a bit. I think he'll have a good TdF this year.

> >Leipheimer could be a darkhorse
>
> Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to expect.
> Can't be worse than last year though.

Well, he could crash before he even starts the race - that'd be worse. I
hope he has a good Tour.

--
tanx,
Howard

Q: Can we call it a quagmire yet?

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

 

[Tom Kunich]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
> better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
> always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
> canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.

Not in my opinion. Heras cannot keep a steady high speed on a climb unless
it is very steep. You'll notice that in every climb that didn't have those
high pitches that he was riding at or off of the back of the climbers, often
unable to keep a steady pace and rocking back and forth on and off.

In a TT up such a climb where he doesn't have a group to pace him, I think
that he'll be far too slow on the lesser gradients to make up for it. L'Alpe
is too shallow for Heras anyway.

 

[Tom Kunich]

"Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Tom Kunich wrote:
> >
> > IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino
because
> > he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
>
> As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case demonstrating
just how strong the Posties really are.

Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"Tom Kunich" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > >
> > > IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino
> because
> > > he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
> >
> > As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> > to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> > you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> > the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.
>
> In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
> mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case
demonstrating
> just how strong the Posties really are.
>
> Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
> believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.
>
>


I agree with Jan not being able to dictate the pace on climbs (but Jan
didn't ride in 2002.) In 2001 I remember Jan having Vino and Livingston
with him in the mountains and they weren't able to drop Lance. I wouldn't
be surprised if Vino wasn't treated as a second "protected" rider by
T-Mobile (especially with Jan's condition in question) This would allow him
to attack, and force Postal to cover, while Jan just sits on chase looking
for opportunity to counter.

-T

 

[Chris]

"curt" <[email protected]> wrote in message

> I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk about Lance and
> Jan as if they are the only two in the race.

That is merely *your* impression. Everyone knows there is a GC that ranks
every finisher.

>I personally think Lance is on
> his way out and someone will take him down this year or certainly the next
> if he even competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he will
> need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so many in a row as
it
> is.

It is what it is.

>As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and they most likely do
> not want to see a record six from an American.

I see you are catching on...

> I would suspect that most of
> Europe would like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't blame
> them to be honest.

Most? I doubt that. Lance has plenty of fans on both sides of the ocean.
Winning 6 is obviously unoprecedented and many people enjoy the excitement
that comes from seeing something that has never happened before. Still,
there are as many opinions as there are people so I would say you should
just let them speak for themselves.


> This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking forward to it and
> hope we have some decent coverage and don't have to put up with some
stupid
> major network taking over on the last day and not even showing the race.

Who cares about the last day except those rare editions when it ends in an
ITT?

> No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at other strong
> riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's name mentioned, so he is
> being looked at as a serious competitor.
>
> Curt

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is that
with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a rider that
has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong (unless you
count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys are getting the
majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2 most consistent
riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the race are so low
that it is surprising some of the others can even stay motivated to pursue
GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).

I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more than a
longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are really
only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing yellow in
Paris.

 

[lazysegall]

wrote:
> Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
> that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
> rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong
> (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys
> are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2
> most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the
> race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even stay
> motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more
> than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are
> really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing
> yellow in Paris.



In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
Lance anything could happen.



--

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> wrote:
> > Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
> > that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
> > rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten
Armstrong
> > (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these
guys
> > are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2
> > most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking
the
> > race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even stay
> > motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> > I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more
> > than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there
are
> > really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing
> > yellow in Paris.
>
>
>
> In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
> 3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
> things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
> injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
> Lance anything could happen.
>

Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
wheels.

-T

 

[Tom Kunich]

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > wrote:
> > > Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
> > > that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
> > > rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten
> Armstrong
> > > (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these
> guys
> > > are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the
2
> > > most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking
> the
> > > race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even
stay
> > > motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> > > I would love to think that there are other riders out there with
more
> > > than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there
> are
> > > really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at
wearing
> > > yellow in Paris.
> >
> > In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
> > 3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
> > things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
> > injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
> > Lance anything could happen.
>
> Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
> remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
> wheels.

Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
lesser jersey holders I think.

 

[alex]

"Howard Kveck" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> In article <[email protected]>,
> Ewoud Dronkert <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> > >Zubeldia and Mayo are
> > >wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one
year
> > >(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.
> >
> > In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
> > form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.
>
> I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs,
anyway.
> In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
> the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
> Hamilton).

You are right. In fact Mayo arrived to the TdF03 a bit in a downward state
of shape. He definitely had not prepared specifically for it. Let's not
forget he had won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (beating Tyler in the last TT!),
then he was second in LBL and finally he was the only one that could put
Lance into trouble during the (Dauphine?). I think people is exagerating his
TT "disability".

As much as I like the Euskaltel concept, I think the major handicap for Mayo
and Zubeldia is that they are in a team with amateurish direction and
management. And this is not likely to change, as the founder of foundation
that created the team is also the top manager (and it seems that the
sponsors are not ready to demand more professionality just yet).

 

[NFN Smith]

Tom Schulenburg wrote:

>
> That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck), But if past
> performance is any indication of future results, I don't think you'll see
> Lance or Jan crack. One of the things that impressed me last year (And
> hopefuly I've learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
> where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off the pace and
> ride tempo to the top. In both cases they limited their losses to a few
> seconds. A less experienced rider would have tried to hang on until they
> bonk.

True, but Things Happen that you can't expect. Last year, Beloki
crashed. In 1989, Pedro Delgado missed his prologue start time.

Actually, the best example to watch for is Indurain in '96. He was the
favorite, having won 5 consecutive tours, but he was also at the end of
his career. He cracked on a cold, rainy mountain stage, and as it
turned out, Riis was the stronger rider that year.

In the case of Armstrong, the real question is in how much he has left
in his career. I think he's now at the point where his most prominent
opponent may not necessarily be Ullrich, but his own advancing age.
Lance is still close enough to the top that he can still compete at the
top level, and win, but that isn't going to be much longer. If
Armstrong doesn't crack this year, the chances of doing so next year are
much higher.

The primary reason that Ullrich isn't quite facing the same problem is
mostly a matter of age, and that he's a couple of years younger than
Armstrong. However, given Ullrich's battles with his weight over his
career, he might be susceptible to cracking at an earlier age.

As we see Armstrong and Ullrich begin to reach the ends of their careers
at the top, it may be more productive to look for the identity of the
next Tour winner not in the guys who have challenged, come close, but
not quite made it to the top step of the podium, but guys who are
considerably younger. I will admit that I haven't followed the
competition for the young rider white jersey in recent years, but that
may be the more likely place to see who's going to be next.

Smith

 

[lazysegall]

Tom Kunich wrote:
> "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:O-
> [email protected]:OWykc.3716$7X1.2198@n-
> ewssvr27.news.prodigy.com...
> >
> > "lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:q-
> > [email protected]:q_xkc.5681$k74.2470@fe13-
> > .usenetserver.com...
> > > wrote:
> > > > Of course they are looking at others. What you need to
> > > > understand is that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has
> > > > been competing with a rider that has never placed lower than
> > > > second AND never beaten
> > Armstrong
> > > > (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that
> > > > these
> > guys
> > > > are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also
> > > > the
> 2
> > > > most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2
> > > > taking
> > the
> > > > race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can
> > > > even
> stay
> > > > motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> > > > I would love to think that there are other riders out there with
> more
> > > > than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that
> > > > there
> > are
> > > > really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at
> wearing
> > > > yellow in Paris.
> > >
> > > In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
> > > 3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that
> > > weird things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have
> > > also been injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again
> > > with Jan and Lance anything could happen.
> >
> > Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
> > remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just
> > sucking wheels.
> Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of
> those lesser jersey holders I think.



First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated. Second, we don't just
remember them because of the jersey. Third, I was talking about finances
not memories. Fourth, the gc contenders who we are talking about can't
win jerseys other than KOM, which is not that prestigous or good for
sponsers. Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
wins. Vino and tyler for instance.



--

 

[David Off]

Tom Kunich wrote:

> "Tom Schulenburg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>>Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
>>remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
>>wheels.
>
> Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
> lesser jersey holders I think.

erm... that is what he said

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"lazysegall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
<SNIP>

> First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated.

How many TdF's did Marco Pantani win? Bjarne Riis? Pedro Delgado? They are
in the record books, and remembered as champions.

<SNIP>

> Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
> is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
> to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
> get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
> wins. Vino and tyler for instance.

Vino is not a lesser name and was in the mix for the GC - Threatening to
take the Yellow Jersey. Tyler won his stage because he was not a threat to
the GC, and Euskatel was not capable of protecting their riders ahead of
him.

I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
than a fourth place finish.

-T

 

[Bob Schwartz]

Tom Schulenburg <[email protected]> wrote:
> I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
> than a fourth place finish.

I don't know that I agree with that. A fourth place GC finish can
establish a rider as a contender to win someday. Grand Tour victors
most often come from a fairly small group of possible winners. In
the case of the Tour de France it is almost unheard of for someone
to win with no prior Grand Tour top placings. Perhaps LANCE comes
close in 1999 although he had placed fourth in the prior year's
Vuelta. I think Fignon in 1983 might be the most recent example of
this.

It is the potential winners that draw the most attention. A good
illustration of the value of a potential winner is Berzin, who
was able to keep finding spots on teams well after it was clear
his career had dead ended, just on the possibility that he might
regain his form.

Another example is Levi Leipheimer. If he were nothing more than
a stage winner he might be back in the US riding for Noble House
like Marty Jemison. While a cynic might conclude that he owes his
spot on Rabobank to his pom pom waving wife, it is really because
of the 3rd place finish in the Vuelta that puts him on that
exclusive list.

Bob Schwartz
[email protected]

 

[Tom Schulenburg]

"Bob Schwartz" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

> Another example is Levi Leipheimer. If he were nothing more than
> a stage winner he might be back in the US riding for Noble House
> like Marty Jemison. While a cynic might conclude that he owes his
> spot on Rabobank to his pom pom waving wife, it is really because
> of the 3rd place finish in the Vuelta that puts him on that
> exclusive list.

Yes, but had he finished 4th, I don't think it would have meant as much
without stage wins. If a team thought he could win stages in Grand Tours,
he'd find a team regardless of his GC placings. I think Teams and Sponsors
focus on the podium, the jersey's, and stage wins (not necessarily in that
order) - Just look at all the adds in bike magazines after the Tour that
tout riders who win stages - CSC sponsors played up Tyler's stage win (along
with 2 other team mates), Not his fourth place finish.

In most races, finishing fourth or lower means that you've been consistent,
not really contending for the GC. I agree with you that lower placed riders
may show promise for future races, but don't you think a team would risk
defending 4th or 5th place on GC for a chance at a stage win?

-T