TDF - Why Isn't Final Stage Competitive

[YeeHaa]

Hi , first post. I'm not a racer, but I've been watching the TDF all this week. And I'm confused.

All week I thought the race finished tomorrow (Sunday). But at the end of today's time trial the commentators basically inferred that the race was finished and Landis had won.

So checked the official website at www.letour.fr. Seems tomorrow's stage is a 154.5km ordinary stage into Paris. There was no mention about it being non-competitive.

Now I wouldn't have thought that Landis's lead over Pereiro (or a bunch of other) would be insurmountable over 150+km. So I Googled the matter.

Depending on the source, it seems the final stage has been non-competitive since 1970 or 1975.

But nowhere can I find WHY. Apparently there is nothing in the official rules that declares the final stage non-competitive.

So the way I see it, if Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans or Menchov decided to break, and beat the peleton (assuming Landis stays in there) by the required margin, there is nothing to stop him being declared the winner.

Can somebody tell me why this is not the case?

 

[MGM]

Hi , first post. I'm not a racer, but I've been watching the TDF all this week. And I'm confused.

All week I thought the race finished tomorrow (Sunday). But at the end of today's time trial the commentators basically inferred that the race was finished and Landis had won.

So checked the official website at www.letour.fr. Seems tomorrow's stage is a 154.5km ordinary stage into Paris. There was no mention about it being non-competitive.

Now I wouldn't have thought that Landis's lead over Pereiro (or a bunch of other) would be insurmountable over 150+km. So I Googled the matter.

Depending on the source, it seems the final stage has been non-competitive since 1970 or 1975.

But nowhere can I find WHY. Apparently there is nothing in the official rules that declares the final stage non-competitive.

So the way I see it, if Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans or Menchov decided to break, and beat the peleton (assuming Landis stays in there) by the required margin, there is nothing to stop him being declared the winner.

Can somebody tell me why this is not the case?

From my understanding, like in baseball, it's just one of those "unwritten rules." Just like you dont go stealing bases when you are up 15-0 in the 9th inning.

 

[limerickman]

Hi , first post. I'm not a racer, but I've been watching the TDF all this week. And I'm confused.

All week I thought the race finished tomorrow (Sunday). But at the end of today's time trial the commentators basically inferred that the race was finished and Landis had won.

So checked the official website at www.letour.fr. Seems tomorrow's stage is a 154.5km ordinary stage into Paris. There was no mention about it being non-competitive.

Now I wouldn't have thought that Landis's lead over Pereiro (or a bunch of other) would be insurmountable over 150+km. So I Googled the matter.

Depending on the source, it seems the final stage has been non-competitive since 1970 or 1975.

But nowhere can I find WHY. Apparently there is nothing in the official rules that declares the final stage non-competitive.

So the way I see it, if Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans or Menchov decided to break, and beat the peleton (assuming Landis stays in there) by the required margin, there is nothing to stop him being declared the winner.

Can somebody tell me why this is not the case?

I think that there is only 32 seconds bonus available for points wins on stage 20 (that includes 2 intermediate sprints = 6 secs each and 20 seconds for finishing first on Stage 20).

Pereiro needs more than 32 seconds bonus to catch Landis.

 

[davidbod]

There are a lot of unwritten rules like:

No attacking when a leader is having a natural break.
No attacking during or just after a feed zone.
No attacking when a leader has a mechanical.
etc.

It is a matter of honor. You don't want to win the tour by attacking when a competitor is having a pee at the side of the road.

As for the last stage it is filled with traditions: letting the winning team lead the peloton into Paris and onto the Champs, Champagne for the winning team and DS, all the other DS and their cars come along side the winner and congratulate him. Its the same principal, you don't attack during these traditional ceremonies.

Once the Peloton does hit the Champs, the real racing will begin for the last stage though. At that point it is basically a criterium and it would be near impossible to gain 59 seconds on a competitor on such a stage, but not impossible.

 

[Orla_24]

From my understanding, like in baseball, it's just one of those "unwritten rules." Just like you dont go stealing bases when you are up 15-0 in the 9th inning.

Well, I imagine there would be no breakaway - not to mention that I can't see Landis letting them go ANYWHERE...

But if it was 20 secs difference at the end and a race for intermediate points - would they not have raced it? I think they would have - what happened in the past when the margine was that small into the final stage?

Or.

 

[limerickman]

Well, I imagine there would be no breakaway - not to mention that I can't see Landis letting them go ANYWHERE...

But if it was 20 secs difference at the end and a race for intermediate points - would they not have raced it? I think they would have - what happened in the past when the margine was that small into the final stage?

Or.

To be sure they would have raced it, if the gap was only 20 secs.

There are 32 bonus secs available on tomorrows stage - if the gap going in to tomorrows stage was 20 seconds, you can be sure it would have been raced.

 

[YeeHaa]

To be sure they would have raced it, if the gap was only 20 secs.

There are 32 bonus secs available on tomorrows stage - if the gap going in to tomorrows stage was 20 seconds, you can be sure it would have been raced.

Thanks for that.

So this does this mean that the non-racing "convention" isn't really a convention at all, but just a pragmatic recognition of an insurmountable points lead?

 

[bobke]

To be sure they would have raced it, if the gap was only 20 secs.

There are 32 bonus secs available on tomorrows stage - if the gap going in to tomorrows stage was 20 seconds, you can be sure it would have been raced.

Agreed, which is why FLoyd needed to win with around 45 seconds or so over Pereiro, same as Lance and Ullrich 2003. To make it way over the 32 bonifications, and to not make the race the famous 8 second difference, or his 6 seconds in the start house difference--to make the gap respectable in other wrods. If the riders tied on time then the race gets thrown into stage wins and other stuff I cant recall.

But the last stage was competetive one year for sure since 1970. Just ask Laurent Fignon. Yet another reason it has not been raced competetively since then!!

 

[limerickman]

Thanks for that.

So this does this mean that the non-racing "convention" isn't really a convention at all, but just a pragmatic recognition of an insurmountable points lead?

You're welcome.

For the most part, yes it's convention which states that the final stage isn't raced by the overall GC contenders.

Usually by the time the TDF arrives at the final stage, the winner has a decisive lead : so the leading riders on GC don't contest the stage as the overall result has been decided.
1989 being the exception because the final stage was an Individual Time Trial.

But.
To win a sprint on the final stage is special.
So tomorrow you will see the remaining big name sprinters battling for the stage win.

 

[Tonto]

But the last stage was competetive one year for sure since 1970. Just ask Laurent Fignon. Yet another reason it has not been raced competetively since then!!

I think it was 1979 when Joop Zoetemelk, in second, attacked on the Champs Elysees and Hinault, in yellow, went with him. Zoetemelk couldn't shake off Hinault who eventually outsprinted him for a stage win.
Funnily enough, Zoetemelk later that day tested positive in drugs test and was docked 10 mins. He still finished second overall.
Hinault also won the final stage in 1982 while wearing the yellow jersey....greedy b******

 

[limerickman]

But the last stage was competetive one year for sure since 1970. Just ask Laurent Fignon. Yet another reason it has not been raced competetively since then!!

1989 was the exception because unlike tomorrow, there was no finite time gains
available, being an ITT.
Tomorrows stage has finite time gains.

 

[El Loto]

Did Pedro Delgado not attack Stephen Roche in 88?

 

[longbottom]

Vinokourov attacked last year as well and gained one or two places in the Overall Classement, though he still missed the Podium. And I suppose he did it for the stage win anyway.

 

[El Loto]

Vinokourov attacked last year as well and gained one or two places in the Overall Classement, though he still missed the Podium. And I suppose he did it for the stage win anyway.

They said all time and bonuses for the stage were cancelled. Yet he leapfrogged Leipheimer.

 

[limerickman]

Did Pedro Delgado not attack Stephen Roche in 88?

You're right, Pedro did attack Stephen beforethe hit the outskirts of Paris.
I'd forgotten that!

 

[tiogar]

Thanks for that.

So this does this mean that the non-racing "convention" isn't really a convention at all, but just a pragmatic recognition of an insurmountable points lead?

Hole in one there my friend except it is a time lead not a points lead - all Robbie has to do is keep breathing to collect the maillot vert.

If it was a 10 second differential and if the second was a hinault or indeed a roche ther would be a race tomorrow adn no mistake but why upset convention when you are not going to get away adn are not going to win a sprint.

The way it has developed is that sprinters effectively don't take part in the main or G.c. race at all which is for climbers who can TT and TTers who can climb.. The last maillot vert who tried to win the race was sean kelly over 20 years ago. paris is a sprinters race and the G.C. candidates let them have thier fun.

 

[texasdiver]

There is the tradition of not racing for yellow on the final day that others have described. Of course there will be a mad sprint finish for the stage win, but not likely a race for yellow.

But it is more than just tradition. It would be near impossible for a GC rider like Pereiro to take a minute out of Landis. Pereiro is a climber not a sprinter. What would the strategy be? The only conceivable strategy for Pereiro to take a minute from Landis is to win in a break away because simply winning the stage (assuming a climber like Pereiro has a snowball's chance in hell in winning a sprint finish in Paris) will still not win yellow.

So how does Pereiro win on a break away? Only way to do that is if the Peleton lets the entire CAISSE D’EPARGNE team away on a break so that they can carry Pereiro along in team time trial formation. But none of the other teams will let this happen. At this point it isn't just Phonak that has an interest in chasing down breaks. Every team with a sprinter who wants to win the stage in Paris will also have a powerful motivation to chase down any such break. And the likehood that a team like Pereiro's team could hold off the entire Peleton on a flat stage is pretty slim.

In addition, Pereiro has absolutely no chance of successfully joining any breakaway that is not composed of his own team. Why? If a break of say 10 riders from various teams gets free of the Peleton and then looks around and realizes that Pereiro is with them they are going to swear at him then just sit up and coast back into the Peleton. Why? Because they know that with Pereiro with them the hounds of hell will be breathing down their neck in the form of Phonak and Landis. And no one wants to suffer in a break like that when the Peleton is sweating blood to haul them back.

Landis was able to do what he did on stage 17 because it was a mountain stage with little flat terrain. Had he tried the same thing in stage 18 he would have been chased down in a matter of miles.

So in point of fact, tradition or no tradition there is simply no reasonable strategy in which Pereiro could ride himself back into yellow on the final stage. And given that his team knows this as well as anyone else it is unlikely in the extreme that they would even bother to try. The more likely scenario for his team and all the others is to ride so that you position your best sprinter for a chance at the stage win which is glory in and of itself.

 

[texasdiver]

There is the tradition of not racing for yellow on the final day that others have described. Of course there will be a mad sprint finish for the stage win, but not likely a race for yellow.

But it is more than just tradition. It would be near impossible for a GC rider like Pereiro to take a minute out of Landis. Pereiro is a climber not a sprinter. What would the strategy be? The only conceivable strategy for Pereiro to take a minute from Landis is to win in a break away because simply winning the stage (assuming a climber like Pereiro has a snowball's chance in hell in winning a sprint finish in Paris) will still not win yellow.

So how does Pereiro win on a break away? Only way to do that is if the Peleton lets the entire CAISSE D’EPARGNE team away on a break so that they can carry Pereiro along in team time trial formation. But none of the other teams will let this happen. At this point it isn't just Phonak that has an interest in chasing down breaks. Every team with a sprinter who wants to win the stage in Paris will also have a powerful motivation to chase down any such break. And the likehood that a team like Pereiro's team could hold off the entire Peleton on a flat stage is pretty slim.

In addition, Pereiro has absolutely no chance of successfully joining any breakaway that is not composed of his own team. Why? If a break of say 10 riders from various teams gets free of the Peleton and then looks around and realizes that Pereiro is with them they are going to swear at him then just sit up and coast back into the Peleton. Why? Because they know that with Pereiro with them the hounds of hell will be breathing down their neck in the form of Phonak and Landis. And no one wants to suffer in a break like that when the Peleton is sweating blood to haul them back.

Landis was able to do what he did on stage 17 because it was a mountain stage with little flat terrain. Had he tried the same thing in stage 18 he would have been chased down in a matter of miles.

So in point of fact, tradition or no tradition there is simply no reasonable strategy in which Pereiro could ride himself back into yellow on the final stage. And given that his team knows this as well as anyone else it is unlikely in the extreme that they would even bother to try. The more likely scenario for his team and all the others is to ride so that you position your best sprinter for a chance at the stage win which is glory in and of itself.

Of course Landis still has to ride the stage to win the tour. So you'll see Phonak be nervous as hell about him crashing out of the race or something tragic like that. You'll see Phonak riding in a protective shell of green around Landis and keeping towards the front of the Peleton just to make sure some crazy accident doesn't take him out of the tour.

I imagine that if Landis did actually crash or break down in some way that wasn't totally his fault, you'd actually see the Peleton sit up and wait for him. Certainly all the riders who are high in the GC standings. They have a sense of honor about that sort of thing and none of them would ever be able to live down the dishonor of having stolen the race that way.

 

[TrekDedicated]

I'm glad it won't be to the extent that it could, my heart/emotions can't take much more after this year's Tour!

 

[Orla_24]

Texasdiver, that was a really good explanation, thanks.

Though I suspect that if it had come to a time gap a sprint could have changed that Pereiro would have tried to do something, just to feel like he tried (hey, worked for Landis when no one thought it was possible, and who thought Cunego would stay in white and deliver the TT of his life? Maybe Pereiro has sprinting abilities we didn't know about!) but than Robbie McEwen would have been his bigger problem, not Landis