The Euro : Greece, German, PIIGS : what a mess

[limerickman]

I've got to put my cards on the table and state that I live in a country (Ireland) which is in the Euro and which is bankrupt.
And which was in receipt of an EU/IMF bailout in November 2010.

Watching the situation in Greece makes for painful stuff.
Greece was admitted to the Eurozone in 2001 after it's books were cooked by Goldman Sachs.
It seems that the "healthy" tag for their economy was anything but and that Greece had run budget deficits for decades.
But French President Chirac and German Chancellor Schroder did not know this and Greece was politically fast tracked in to the
Eurozone.

Since 2008 with the demise of the asset/credit bubble several Eurozone countries, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS)
have come under pressure as regards funding. The bond markets have turned their backs on some of these country's because their debt levels were too high.
Their tax yields did not equal their government spending and in some cases their debt levels, relative to the gross domestic product
(GDP) was so out of kilter that it was no surprise that the bond markets were not interested.

In my own country's case because our banks were insolvent, the Irish state decided to nationalise the liabilities of our banks which meant that the state agreed to meet all bank liabilities. This pushed our debt to astronomical levels and the bond markets too fright.
This meant that we had to borrow from the EU/IMF.
In Italy because of it's rolling over of historic debt from 70/80's meant that interest repayments, as well as the principal debt, make Italy unattractive to bond markets.
Spain and Portugal suffered similar problems accessing credit from the bond markets.

Greece's problems totally outstripped all the other problem countries. In 2010, Greece was shut out of the bond markets and it had to go cap in hand for a bailout. The Germans insisted that any bailout must include the IMF and so Greece obtained the loan subject to terms and conditions such as selling public utilities, increasing taxes, reducing costs, cracking down on tax dodgers etc.
Austerity was imposed and Greece limped along but it quickly became apparent that burden of debt upon more debt was heavy.
Greece's economy began to contract sharply. Terms that were agreed started to slip.
Germany started to accuse Greece of being unhelpful : Greece counterattacked saying that the terms and conditions were too punitive.

Talk turned to a second EU/IMF Greek bailout.
Holland and Finland started to complain that Greece did not have the will to implement the medicine needed and that a second bailout would not solve Greece's problem.
German industrialists like the Bosch CEO said that Greece should be booted out of the Eurozone.
Now Germany has said that all political parties in Greece must sign up to the new terms and conditions for a second bailout.
Germany has also demanded that Greece install a technocrat government (general elections are due in April).

We now have Europe at each others throats. Countries questioning each other sovereignty and bona fides.

This project looks to be going down the drain.

In the meantime irish taxpayers are funding the banks so that those banks can repay German/French/British/American banks who lent money to those Irish banks.

It is a mess.

 

[jhuskey]

It may be sylish to be an insect of the roach family in he near future. We are not very smart to be the the top of the food chain.Remember the dinos were the most successful animals of all time and they are all dead.

 

[alienator]

I've always wondered why there weren't more questions/noise about the EU encroaching on the sovereignty of its member nations. I'd say that the member nations demanding a particular kind of government from another member nation goes several meters beyond encroaching and damn well blows bast that line.

 

[64Paramount]

Originally Posted by alienator .

I've always wondered why there weren't more questions/noise about the EU encroaching on the sovereignty of its member nations. I'd say that the member nations demanding a particular kind of government from another member nation goes several meters beyond encroaching and damn well blows bast that line.

Exactly, it makes me wonder if that wasn't their intent all along.

Heck, it's much cheaper than declaring war...just take over a country financially and tell them how the government in their country will operate. Comply or no more money.......

 

[alienator]

Exactly, it makes me wonder if that wasn't their intent all along.
 
Heck, it's much cheaper than declaring war...just take over a country financially and tell them how the government in their country will operate. Comply or no more money.......
 
 
 

I don't think that was the intent all along. I think Germany's suggestion just shows the desperation caused by the financial mess that the world has been in.

 

[limerickman]

Difficult to know where sovereignty ends and where surrender starts.

For the Americans here, think of a time with no common currency. 16 states sign up to a currency called the USD. Some of those states use the collective interest rate of the 16 for their own means.
The banks in some of the 16 - loosen borrowing terms to the extent that they're non-existant.

As things stand Greece is in an awful situation. It's politicians have since joining the Euro said that things are fine. Dig a bit deeper and they're not.
But ask a Greek to solve this problem? This spells trouble.
The Greek won't because he sees nothing wrong with the fact that his country's debts are not down to him/her,

Ireland? We got locked in to a USA type house price asset bubble. Bubble dies and the taxes that were earned from the bubble died. Banks go bankrupt. Instead of letting the banks die, Ireland decides to indemnify all bank liabilities./img/vbsmilies/smilies/mad.gif

Bond markets close because they don't know the depth of the liabilities In Ireland. So the only folks loaning money to this country are the EU/IMF.
Ireland borrows. Ireland says it will repay even if takes and reduced government spending means that the country dies econmically
Irish citizens will stand on the heads to prepay the loans = and repay them as fast as possible in order to get out of this mess, ulike the Greeks.

The difficulty here is that my own country is prepared to do what it takes to get the debt burden off our shoulders. Other countries, in the same economic union, blame their creditors for demanding to be repaid.

 

[Dave Cutter]

Never before have we seen a global monetary collapse. But I am pretty sure this is exactly what one looks like. As we have seen individual nations currency's collapse before, we know what to look for. Soon we may hear rumors of new currency's, moneys printed in different colors, or called by different names. Expect limits on the exchange rate from old money to new money, and limits on amounts that will be allowed to be exchanged to a new currency.

 

[64Paramount]

Originally Posted by alienator .


I don't think that was the intent all along. I think Germany's suggestion just shows the desperation caused by the financial mess that the world has been in.

So you think that it's just a "threat" ( for lack of a better word ) to get them to be financially responsible, rather than an outright attempt to influence the political structure of that country?

Or am I still missing your point?

 

[64Paramount]

Originally Posted by limerickman .

Difficult to know where sovereignty ends and where surrender starts.

For the Americans here, think of a time with no common currency. 16 states sign up to a currency called the USD. Some of those states use the collective interest rate of the 16 for their own means.
The banks in some of the 16 - loosen borrowing terms to the extent that they're non-existant.

As things stand Greece is in an awful situation. It's politicians have since joining the Euro said that things are fine. Dig a bit deeper and they're not.
But ask a Greek to solve this problem? This spells trouble.
The Greek won't because he sees nothing wrong with the fact that his country's debts are not down to him/her,

Ireland? We got locked in to a USA type house price asset bubble. Bubble dies and the taxes that were earned from the bubble died. Banks go bankrupt. Instead of letting the banks die, Ireland decides to indemnify all bank liabilities./img/vbsmilies/smilies/mad.gif

Bond markets close because they don't know the depth of the liabilities In Ireland. So the only folks loaning money to this country are the EU/IMF.
Ireland borrows. Ireland says it will repay even if takes and reduced government spending means that the country dies econmically
Irish citizens will stand on the heads to prepay the loans = and repay them as fast as possible in order to get out of this mess, ulike the Greeks.

The difficulty here is that my own country is prepared to do what it takes to get the debt burden off our shoulders. Other countries, in the same economic union, blame their creditors for demanding to be repaid.

We have people in the USA that think the same way as you have described the people of Ireland and we also have people who think the same way as you have described the some of the other countries in the EU.

I was taught as a child that when you owe money to someone, then that debt must be repaid regardless of any personal sacrifice you have to make to repay it.

But, I have also known many citizens of the USA that feel that they are entitled to a living and that our government is there to make sure that they are protected, sheltered, and fed....regardless of whether they lift a finger to help themselves or not. And if the goverment gets in financial trouble, well so what, they didn't have anything to with that. That's the fault of all those politicians....

 

[alienator]

So you think that it's just a "threat" ( for lack of a better word ) to get them to be financially responsible, rather than an outright attempt to influence the political structure of that country?
 
Or am I still missing your point?

I don't believe that the intent of the EU all along was to encroach on and then dissolve sovereignty of its member nations. I think Germany's suggestion is a sign of desperation.

 

[alienator]

We have people in the USA that think the same way as you have described the people of Ireland and we also have people who think the same way as you have described the some of the other countries in the EU.
 
I was taught as a child that when you owe money to someone, then that debt must be repaid regardless of any personal sacrifice you have to make to repay it.
 
But, I have also known many citizens of the USA that feel that they are entitled to a living and that our government is there to make sure that they are protected, sheltered, and fed....regardless of whether they lift a finger to help themselves or not. And if the goverment gets in financial trouble, well so what, they didn't have anything to with that. That's the fault of all those politicians....
 
 
 

Oh, yes. Here it goes...... Time to exit this thread.

 

[64Paramount]

My comments were to try to stimulate the discussion on the topic and if my comments offended anyone, then I apologise....

 

[Dave Cutter]

I really don't know what the intent of any other human being is.... heck it's difficult to be honest enough with myself to actually be confident of my own true intent. To assume the intent of a nation or group of nations would be imaginative speculation... at best. At least... on my part.

But even if you could accurately guess an intent what good would it be? Intent... is meaningless. Is a solution possible, or is the possible solutions tolerable, is the only meaningful questions. I expect many (nations as well as powerful people) to use this disaster for their own benefit. This would include (at both ends of the extremes) dissolving the Euro (and the EU) as well as establishing a new global currency. These aren't new ideas... this has been a long time in the making: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/04/21/soros-bretton-woods-conference-accelerates-push-new-global-economy/

But... I don't see ether extreme as likely possibility's. What we will likely see in the future is a repeat of what we've seen in the past. Collapse, depression, and war... is, would be, and always has been, the normal result of poor government leadership.

 

[alienator]

Wow. You really know an article is going to be objective when it starts off with "When the anti-American......" That says a lot about Fox News and those that believe that shite. Certainly it adds credibility to everything you just said, Dave. What a tactic: describe people and and anything opposed to your ideas as anti-American. It worked for Bush and his ilk when they named people opposed to his wars as anti-American. It worked for McCarthy. Uh-huh. Oh well. So much for critical thought.

 

[Dave Cutter]

Originally Posted by alienator .

That says a lot about Fox News and those that believe that shite.
What a tactic: describe people and and anything opposed to your ideas as anti-American. It worked for Bush and his ilk when they named people opposed to his wars as anti-American. It worked for McCarthy. Uh-huh. Oh well. So much for critical thought.

The link I provided was as a search suggestion... I could care less what you think of Fox news. Most people (I think) still read books to know whats-what in the world.

Do you have a link for that? You know where Bush called someone... ANYONE anti-American? I can't recall that myself. However Vice President Biden calling all Republicians anti-American at a Union fund raiser in Columbus Ohio... just last week. Yeah I do recall that.

I think the history you remember of McCarthy is actually based on an old black and white movie that used to play on TV (or maybe the more recent remake). If you decide to read books sometime... the actual history is a little different (than the movie) and more interesting as well.

You're apparently drinking and typing again alienator. You post nasty (and stupid) stuff when you're drinking. You should get some help. You don't need to live like this!

 

[ambal]

Originally Posted by Dave Cutter .

You're apparently drinking and typing again alienator. You post nasty (and stupid) stuff when you're drinking. You should get some help. You don't need to live like this!

He seems to do this quite a bit, it could be time for an intervention.

 

[Dave Cutter]

Originally Posted by ambal .
He seems to do this quite a bit, it could be time for an intervention.

Beats me!

alienator seems to have degraded to the point where he can no longer tell the difference between the real life... and his life. He apparently is feeling like life's victim. But it would be my guess that as long as he has strength and willpower enough to continue cycling he will refuse to accept help.

It is a darn shame as he had so much to contribute about bicycles and cycling. Now... we're left to try to sort out the knowledge from the rants.

 

[alienator]

 
Beats me!
 
alienator seems to have degraded to the point where he can no longer tell the difference between the real life... and his life. He apparently is feeling like life's victim. But it would be my guess that as long as he has strength and willpower enough to continue cycling he will refuse to accept help.
 
It is a darn shame as he had so much to contribute about bicycles and cycling. Now... we're left to try to sort out the knowledge from the rants.
 

I'm not sure where you get your information or how you imagine you're in place where you're qualified to make the judgements you make. Clearly you're trying to make a political point. As for Bush and his, ilk your article is one bit of proof for which you asked. Also, it was overtly implied on many occasions. As for you're posting the link, it wasn't a suggestion, and you never said as much. It was a direct link. If you had said the article was just one example of what people were saying, that would have been different. Alas, that is not what you said. Let's review specifically what you said:

I expect many (nations as well as powerful people) to use this disaster for their own benefit. This would include (at both ends of the extremes) dissolving the Euro (and the EU) as well as establishing a new global currency. These aren't new ideas... this has been a long time in the making: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/04/21/soros-bretton-woods-conference-accelerates-push-new-global-economy/

Now let's tighten the focus a bit more:

These aren't new ideas... this has been a long time in the making: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/04/21/soros-bretton-woods-conference-accelerates-push-new-global-economy

Your are clearly at least implying that among other things establishing a new global currency is in fact a process that is in progress. Exactly where is the evidence that is the case? I'm not sure how you make the assumptions you do, but you clearly are making them with very little background information. Drinking and posting? Really? You have evidence? Let me share this with you: I have all of about 1 beer a month, two in a busy month. Alcohol severely impairs the function of immunosuppressants and increases the likelihood of transplant rejection. Since I have a donation from the family of a deceased loved one, I'm not anxious to waste their gift and my health. Feel free to cling to whatever assumptions you've made, no matter what the evidence is.

 

[alienator]

He seems to do this quite a bit, it could be time for an intervention.

Given that you've only been on this forum for a short time, it's unlikely that you've read enough of my posts to make any statistically significant assessment of what I am likely or unlikely to do.

 

[Dave Cutter]

Originally Posted by alienator .

Your are clearly at least implying that among other things establishing a new global currency is in fact a process that is in progress. Exactly where is the evidence that is the case?
Feel free to cling to whatever assumptions you've made, no matter what the evidence is.

So.... will you be posting that link where Bush made that anti-American statement soon?

As far as the currency... I got that mostly from a book written by George Soras. He has of course written several (and I read all the local library could order in for me) so I am not sure in which book he fully exposed his plan. You could try reading these two: Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism, Financial Turmoil in Europe and the United States: Essays. I haven't heard of any plans for ether book to be made into a movie.... so you might want to start with just watching the news or reading a newspaper.

Thanks for your permission for me to cling.... but trust.... me your permission means nothing to me. Sorry to hear you have health concerns... but then don't we all.