The Next 5 Time Tour de France Champion

[gntlmn]

I am wondering what young talent is coming up through the ranks anywhere in the world. Who will have a strong chance to win the Tour de France 5 times? Clearly, it won't be Jan Ullrich or Roberto Heras or Tyler Hamilton. These people might win one or two, but a 5 time champion will probably need to be quite a bit younger. Who are these emerging talents? Where are they from? Is there a Freddy Adu (14 year old pro soccer star) of road racing? With Millar sidelined currently for drugs, I suppose he may come back eventually to be a multi champion, but it may be harder for him after this cloud, not to speak of how his using EPO may have articially inflated his performance and hence our expectations thus far. Maybe he's not as good as we think. But surely there must be standouts which are very young, perhaps even as young as 16 to 20 years old, who show a lot of promise. Let's hear about them here. Thanks in advance.

 

[keydates]

How old is Denis Menchov? He's been doing relatively well as a junior.

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by keydates
How old is Denis Menchov? He's been doing relatively well as a junior.

It looks like he's 26 years old, according to this website linked here. I think he might be getting a little old to hope for 5 Tour de France wins, unless he wins the next 5 in a row. I don't think he'll get past Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton or Mayo this year on GC. He doesn't have many more chances before Father Time bids him farewell.

http://uk.sports.yahoo.com/cy/profiles/4365.html

 

[patch70]

Originally posted by gntlmn
I am wondering what young talent is coming up through the ranks anywhere in the world.

I think you'd have to list Cunego as a chance provided he doesn't fall into the trap of letting a very early Grand Tour victory go to his head.
Also, I don't think Menchov is too old at 26. Lance won his first tour just before turning 28.

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by patch70

Also, I don't think Menchov is too old at 26. Lance won his first tour just before turning 28.

I was thinking about this on my ride today, but you beat me to the punch. If Menchov improves a lot between now and next year, and Lance, Jan, and Tyler begin to fade, he could conceivably win 6 Tours, assuming no one else becomes a superstar.

Your point is well taken. I will keep an eye on Menchov in this year's Tour to see if he is showing signs of improving talent.

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by patch70
I think you'd have to list Cunego as a chance provided he doesn't fall into the trap of letting a very early Grand Tour victory go to his head.

Damiano Cunego (Saeco) is only 22 years old and the youngest rider to win the Giro, which he just won, since Giuseppe Saronni won in 1979 a year younger, 21. Also, he is a great climber but also has a good sprint.

All of a sudden I'm thinking about Eddy Merckx who was sensational at all 3 specialties: climbing, sprinting, time trialling. And remember, Lance used to not be that great at TT's. That has come with long training. If Damiano comes along, it may be his day in the sun. He is the perfect age to come on as a next generation grand champion. It will be interesting to watch him progress.

This Giro victory is particularly significant because Alberto Simoni was the team leader, and Damiano attacked in the mountains, leaving Simoni behind. Damiano was the stronger rider, but Simoni may have won if Damiano would have loyally played domestique as he was expected to do. Simoni makes it sound like the victory would have been his if he would not have held back to support Damiano when Damiano took a convincing lead.

Damiano Cunego says he does not expect to try the Tour until 2006, at which point Lance may be gone, and Ullrich getting older. It may then be the time for Damiano. He will then be 26. I think he is being wise to pace himself as he does, in light of the powers that be (current favorites). Also, even though the Giro is a grand tour, it is not quite as grueling as the Tour de France. Maybe it won't affect him as badly as if he would have won the TdF.

 

[iBanesto]

cunego looks great!!!

 

[Lisbon]

I'm not sure who might be the next, it might take a couple of years to find him. As for Freddy Adu he could be the next big thing in the US. Hpefully boost soccer up.

 

[Lisbon]

ok this is a little bit off topic but, i am 14 years old just like Freddy Adu. It's just amazing to see such a young person performing at such a compeditive level, I know I couldn't imagine me there playing with the MLS teams. Maybe in a couple of years though.

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by Lisbon
ok this is a little bit off topic but, i am 14 years old just like Freddy Adu. It's just amazing to see such a young person performing at such a compeditive level, I know I couldn't imagine me there playing with the MLS teams. Maybe in a couple of years though.

It kind of gets you dreaming, doesn't it? It sounds like Freddy is having fun now, feeling much more relaxed than he did when he first started pro. We'll see if he is the next Pele. It's kind of early to tell.

As for Cunego, I wonder if Simoni was a little off in the Giro. Maybe he wasn't in top form. But if he was, Cunego's seizing the lead really makes a big statement about his future. We'll see how Simoni stacks up at the end of the Tour this year.

 

[marv800]

It will be Lance.... 5 x 2 = 10!!!

 

[Dermo]

All that hype about a VERY ordinary cyclist now known to be using the old enhancements.

Menchov maybe
Cunego definitely
Scanlon hopefully

 

[Lisbon]

Originally posted by gntlmn
It kind of gets you dreaming, doesn't it? It sounds like Freddy is having fun now, feeling much more relaxed than he did when he first started pro. We'll see if he is the next Pele. It's kind of early to tell.

As for Cunego, I wonder if Simoni was a little off in the Giro. Maybe he wasn't in top form. But if he was, Cunego's seizing the lead really makes a big statement about his future. We'll see how Simoni stacks up at the end of the Tour this year.

yea it does get me dreaming because i play soccer too. But he has settled down from when he started, because when he did he was hesitant but he is playing well now with a couple goals

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by Dermo
All that hype about a VERY ordinary cyclist now known to be using the old enhancements.

Menchov maybe
Cunego definitely
Scanlon hopefully

Ok. I'm ready to hear what you know. You give Cunego a definitely, but how can you be so sure. Is he another David Millar? Do you suspect (or know) he is using EPO?

By the way, Simoni is showing weakness in the Tour de France. Perhaps Cunego saw this early on and took advantage of it before it became known to the rest of us.

 

[homeycheese]

Look at the babies like Voelker and Cancellara

 

[gntlmn]

Originally posted by homeycheese
Look at the babies like Voelker and Cancellara

I don't think either of them are good in the mountains, are they? Sure, Cancellara is good on the flats--Voelker too. But those that go on to become Tour champions have to show some promise in the mountains.

 

[gntlmn]

How about this guy Vladimir Karpets? He's 6'3" and weighs 174 lbs. and was this year's white jersey winner at the 2004 TdF. He came up from 100th place last year to 13th this year. That's quite a jump, and he was still only less than 24 years old. I see he lost quite a bit of time to Armstrong on a couple of mountain stages, but not too much on the others. I think the big gap on stage 5 was Voeckler et al's breakaway stage.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/cycling/riders/page/400261

and here's a photo, to give you an idea of his stature--even taller than Indurain who also rode for Banesto. Indurain is 6'2" and weighed 172 lbs.

http://home.scarlet.be/~vanderb1/karpets/gallery01/pages/07.html

 

[craigstanton]

Well, this is an interesting question. But, look back for a moment and think of young Ullrich compared to young Armstrong. People are still obviously debating about the likelihood and physical possibility of someone built like Lance was to come back and dominate as he has. Just goes to show you -- reality is bizarre. The expected rarely happens, and it is really difficult to say what will happen to guys like Karpets, Cunego, Scanlon, etc . . . Who will be the next 5 time tour winner? Maybe he is laying around in a hospital bed somewhere with a chemo drip and no hair, or maybe some 21 year old unknown is recovering from a freak hunting accident in a hsopital room somewhere . . . and he'll show up next year to dominate the tour. Things at least this strange have happened

 

[gntlmn]

Well, this is an interesting question. But, look back for a moment and think of young Ullrich compared to young Armstrong. People are still obviously debating about the likelihood and physical possibility of someone built like Lance was to come back and dominate as he has. Just goes to show you -- reality is bizarre. The expected rarely happens, and it is really difficult to say what will happen to guys like Karpets, Cunego, Scanlon, etc . . . Who will be the next 5 time tour winner? Maybe he is laying around in a hospital bed somewhere with a chemo drip and no hair, or maybe some 21 year old unknown is recovering from a freak hunting accident in a hsopital room somewhere . . . and he'll show up next year to dominate the tour. Things at least this strange have happened

That's a good point. I have wondered at times whether a two year break from competition might be a help, considering both Lemond and Armstrong.

 

[philoakley]

How about Iban Mayo (i think he's 26 or 27)? He had a bad tour this year but he has a good climbing pedigree and has improved his time trialing. That said, he will have to win the next five in a row but it has been pointed out that Armstrong was a winner three months short of his 28th birthday.