C
Chris M
Guest
Anyone that thinks Floyd has the race won already is really stupid.
Below are the riders in rough place where I expect them to finish. The
number to the right of each name is GC position between the first ITT
going in to stage 8. There are a combination of riders from several
distinct groups. The first group are riders reaching the age where they
can hope to challenge for the podium for the first time in their
careers. That would be Evans, Menchov and any other rider that is
around 25 to 30 and racing consistently during the Armstrong era,
biding time and maturing while waiting for the chance to show his team
the form required to prove his value enough to justify having a team
strong enough to compete against Discovery or T-Mobile. The last group
that is drawn from are riders that have had flashes of brilliance in
the past and that indicates both great talent and also a lack of good
fortune, good health or whatever flaky personatlity impediment keeping
them from showing their class on a consistent basis. The difference
between Evans and Moreau is their age and even though Moreau can brag
some impressive results in the Tour, he hes not been the best of this
year's riders for several years. I say that because he did finish a
very strong 4th several years ago behind IIRC Armstrong, Ullrich and
Beloki none of whom are in this Tour. If each of these guys somehow
were able to repeat their very best results and moved up according to
who neat them that year before being DNS this year that would make
Kloden the winner and Moreau 2nd. I think that explains the 2 numbers
to the right of each name. The first number to the right is where I
expect them to place if they have a ride at their ideal form. The
second number is the likely worst place if they ride somewhere between
the best and just average results. It is difficult to gauge because the
course and field is more like a Diet Coke version of this race and that
benefits so many guys that barely survived the mountain stages during
the Lance reign.
So, back to Kloden. He has a better than 50% chance at winning the
yellow jersey in Paris. In fact, if he does not choke under the
pressure or have something wreck his Tour then nobody else in the race
has ever shown the strengths it would take to defeat Kloden if his form
takes him to Paris the way he rode in 2004. Floyd is the next, for
reasons he demonstrated so far in every race other than the Tour and I
think up to now that was intentional. Most people did not notice that
Floyd is a lot like Lance in character except without the confidence of
having Lance's results. It would have been to humiliating for Floyd to
attack Lance all 3 weeks last year only to lose either a little but in
front of everyone or to wreck his whole Tour last year by trying to
accomplish the near impossible (beating Lance in any of the past 7
Tours).
The next group has riders who have been very consistent while riding
for the last 2 seasons or so and are due to move up or move out (as in
give up on the Tour GC because of age, like Gonchar). I have 3 Disco
boys next to each other and though I think possibly 2 can challenge for
podium or just off the podium (Azevedo has placed 5th in the Tour IIRC
and has other high GT results) but it is possible that if another
Discovery rider gets in the right break or has a great ride in the
mountains then the Spanish Mafia on the Disco team will let the bet
positioned rider put their "Lance" hat on and that may cause a Disco
rider with high GC form to end up losing time from doing the inevitable
work on the initial mountain passes and the time spent riding after
blowing up will push them in to the teens GC wise. If they (Disco) race
conservatively and without an obvious star then they could easily
finish as I have indicated if that is what they attempted. The rest of
the list is self-explanatory.
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 1 4
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 1 3
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 3 5
1 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 3 bust
33 José Azevedo (Por) Discovery 5 10
13 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery 5 10
17 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery 5 15
37 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 5 10
9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 9 10
7 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 9 15
27 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel 9 10
23 Yaroslav Popovyvch (Ukr) Discovery 12 15
24 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) Discovery 13 15
16 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 14 20
12 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R 15 20
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 16 20
35 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile 17 20
Below are the riders in rough place where I expect them to finish. The
number to the right of each name is GC position between the first ITT
going in to stage 8. There are a combination of riders from several
distinct groups. The first group are riders reaching the age where they
can hope to challenge for the podium for the first time in their
careers. That would be Evans, Menchov and any other rider that is
around 25 to 30 and racing consistently during the Armstrong era,
biding time and maturing while waiting for the chance to show his team
the form required to prove his value enough to justify having a team
strong enough to compete against Discovery or T-Mobile. The last group
that is drawn from are riders that have had flashes of brilliance in
the past and that indicates both great talent and also a lack of good
fortune, good health or whatever flaky personatlity impediment keeping
them from showing their class on a consistent basis. The difference
between Evans and Moreau is their age and even though Moreau can brag
some impressive results in the Tour, he hes not been the best of this
year's riders for several years. I say that because he did finish a
very strong 4th several years ago behind IIRC Armstrong, Ullrich and
Beloki none of whom are in this Tour. If each of these guys somehow
were able to repeat their very best results and moved up according to
who neat them that year before being DNS this year that would make
Kloden the winner and Moreau 2nd. I think that explains the 2 numbers
to the right of each name. The first number to the right is where I
expect them to place if they have a ride at their ideal form. The
second number is the likely worst place if they ride somewhere between
the best and just average results. It is difficult to gauge because the
course and field is more like a Diet Coke version of this race and that
benefits so many guys that barely survived the mountain stages during
the Lance reign.
So, back to Kloden. He has a better than 50% chance at winning the
yellow jersey in Paris. In fact, if he does not choke under the
pressure or have something wreck his Tour then nobody else in the race
has ever shown the strengths it would take to defeat Kloden if his form
takes him to Paris the way he rode in 2004. Floyd is the next, for
reasons he demonstrated so far in every race other than the Tour and I
think up to now that was intentional. Most people did not notice that
Floyd is a lot like Lance in character except without the confidence of
having Lance's results. It would have been to humiliating for Floyd to
attack Lance all 3 weeks last year only to lose either a little but in
front of everyone or to wreck his whole Tour last year by trying to
accomplish the near impossible (beating Lance in any of the past 7
Tours).
The next group has riders who have been very consistent while riding
for the last 2 seasons or so and are due to move up or move out (as in
give up on the Tour GC because of age, like Gonchar). I have 3 Disco
boys next to each other and though I think possibly 2 can challenge for
podium or just off the podium (Azevedo has placed 5th in the Tour IIRC
and has other high GT results) but it is possible that if another
Discovery rider gets in the right break or has a great ride in the
mountains then the Spanish Mafia on the Disco team will let the bet
positioned rider put their "Lance" hat on and that may cause a Disco
rider with high GC form to end up losing time from doing the inevitable
work on the initial mountain passes and the time spent riding after
blowing up will push them in to the teens GC wise. If they (Disco) race
conservatively and without an obvious star then they could easily
finish as I have indicated if that is what they attempted. The rest of
the list is self-explanatory.
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 1 4
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 1 3
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 3 5
1 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 3 bust
33 José Azevedo (Por) Discovery 5 10
13 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery 5 10
17 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery 5 15
37 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 5 10
9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 9 10
7 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 9 15
27 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel 9 10
23 Yaroslav Popovyvch (Ukr) Discovery 12 15
24 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) Discovery 13 15
16 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 14 20
12 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R 15 20
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 16 20
35 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile 17 20
