DiabloScott said:
Here's the list of all the winners. During some years there wasn't an actual white jersey, but there was still the best young rider competition.
1975 Francesco Moser
1976 Enrique Martinez-Heredia
1977 Dietrich Thurau
1978 Henk Lubberding
1979 Jean-Rene Bernadeau
1980 Johan Vandervelde
1981 Peter Winnen
1982 Phil Anderson
1983 Laurent Fignon
1984 Greg Lemond
1985 Fanio Parra
1986 Andy Hampsten
1987 Raul Alcala
1988 Eric Breukink
1989 Fabrice Philippot
1990 Gilles Delion
1991 Alvaro Mejia
1992 Eddy Bouwmans
1993 Antonio Martin
1994 Marco Pantani
1995 Marco Pantani
1996 Jan Ullrich
1997 Jan Ullrich
1998 Jan Ullrich
1999 Benoit Salamon
2000 Francisco Mancebo
2001 Oscar Sevilla
2002 Ivan Basso
2003 Denis Menchov
2004 Vladimir Karpets
Now there's maybe a half dozen or so of those guys who never became GC podium finishers later in their careers, but for the most part the white jersey competition is pretty good at finding GT champions. You have to ride for the white jersey the way you would for the yellow (but you don't have to be quite as good), and if you ride for GC you can't be going for green jersey points. Boonen is just not the type to take white.
I'm in the Valverde camp on this one.
Here's a list of past Tour de France Yellow Jersey winners:
Year Winning Cyclist Nationality Winning Time Distance
(km) Team
2005 The 2005 Tour de France - 2nd to 24th July 3607 ?
2004 Lance Armstrong USA 83h 36m 02s 3391 US Postal - Berry Floor
2003 Lance Armstrong USA 83h 41m 12s 3427 US Postal - Berry Floor
2002 Lance Armstrong USA 82h 05m 12s 3278 US Postal Service
2001 Lance Armstrong USA 86h 17m 28s 3453 US Postal Service
2000 Lance Armstrong USA 92h 33m 08s 3662 US Postal Service
1999 Lance Armstrong USA 91h 32m 16s 3687 US Postal Service
1998 Marco Pantani Italy 92h 49m 46s 3850 Mercatone Uno - Bianchi
1997 Jan Ullrich Germany 100h 30m 35s 3950 Team Deutsche Telekom
1996 Bjarne Riis Denmark 95h 57m 16s 3753 Team Deutsche Telekom
1995 Miguel Indurain Spain 92h 44m 59s 3535
1994 Miguel Indurain Spain 103h 38m 38s 3972
1993 Miguel Indurain Spain 95h 57m 9s 3720
1992 Miguel Indurain Spain 100h 49m 30s 3983
1991 Miguel Indurain Spain 101h 1m 20s 3915
1990 Greg LeMond USA 90h 43m 20s 3449
1989 Greg LeMond USA 87h 38m 35s 3250
1988 Pedro Delgado Spain 84h 27m 53s 3300
1987 Stephen Roche Ireland 115h 27m 42s 4235
1986 Greg LeMond USA 110h 35m 19s 3833
1985 Bernard Hinault France 113h 24m 23s 4006
1984 Laurent Fignon France 112h 3m 40s 3900
1983 Laurent Fignon France 105h 7m 52s 3750
1982 Bernard Hinault France 92h 8m 46s 3573
1981 Bernard Hinault France 96h 19m 38s 3740
1980 Joop Zoetemelk Netherlands 109h 19m 14s 3996
1979 Bernard Hinault France 103h 6m 50s 4108
1978 Bernard Hinault France 108h 18m 0s 4103
1977 Bernard Thevenet France 115h 38m 30s 4096
1976 Lucien Van Impe Belgium 116h 22m 23s 4016
1975 Bernard Thevenet France 114h 35m 31s 3999
And now past whites going on to win yellows: Fignon, Lemond, Ullrich, Pantani. Of course, this list may not be complete yet. I think Basso and Karpets are strong for future Yellow contention. But counting only the Tour de France and not the other GT's, it's still not at all a foregone conclusion that a white will go to yellow. In fact, the odds are still long.