Tour 2006 predictions.
- Thread starter tcklyde
- Start date
I think that the 2006 TDF is very very open to be honest.
As with every year there will only be a select bunch who are capable of the TDF.
My view is that Ullrich, Kloden, Landis, Basso, Valverde, Heras, Cunego, possibly Vino and possibly Simoni are the only riders capable of winning the 2006 TDF.
I can't see anyone outside of these people with a realistic chance of winning it.
Looking at the contenders that I have listed, I think that Kloden, Vino are not as consistently strong as the other contenders listed.
That leaves Ullrich, Landis, Basso, Valverde, Heras, Cunego and Simoni.
In respect of Cunego, 2005 was patchy compared to 2004.
In respect of Ullrich, 2005 indicated that JU might be starting to decline in strength.
In respect of Simoni, he never really performs at the TDF and given that age is not on his side, I think his chances of winning are limited.
In respect of Landis : he's a tough nut. I think 2005 did show that he lacked something though and he doesn't strike me as a real prospect for overall.
Which leaves Heras, Basso and Valverde.
Valverde is a class act but injury has robbed him of opportunities in the last two years : I think AV will win the TDF at some point but my gut tells me that 2006 might not be the year.
Which leave me with Heras and Basso.
Basso is the heir apparent. Heras is a proven rider.
The 06 TDF is eight months away - I think Heras could be the man. His team are strong and they had a good TDF and a super Vuelta.
Manolo Saiz never did get the timing right for the TDF in the ONCE era with Jalabert/Zulle.
Saiz has won everything else in the sport and he badly wants a TDF title.
All evidence points to Basso though : he has a great team and he is a classy rider.
The one caveat : Ullrich is the only man still in the peloton to have won the TDF.
It'll be a Heras/Basso fight as favourites : with everyone fearing Ullrich.
As with every year there will only be a select bunch who are capable of the TDF.
My view is that Ullrich, Kloden, Landis, Basso, Valverde, Heras, Cunego, possibly Vino and possibly Simoni are the only riders capable of winning the 2006 TDF.
I can't see anyone outside of these people with a realistic chance of winning it.
Looking at the contenders that I have listed, I think that Kloden, Vino are not as consistently strong as the other contenders listed.
That leaves Ullrich, Landis, Basso, Valverde, Heras, Cunego and Simoni.
In respect of Cunego, 2005 was patchy compared to 2004.
In respect of Ullrich, 2005 indicated that JU might be starting to decline in strength.
In respect of Simoni, he never really performs at the TDF and given that age is not on his side, I think his chances of winning are limited.
In respect of Landis : he's a tough nut. I think 2005 did show that he lacked something though and he doesn't strike me as a real prospect for overall.
Which leaves Heras, Basso and Valverde.
Valverde is a class act but injury has robbed him of opportunities in the last two years : I think AV will win the TDF at some point but my gut tells me that 2006 might not be the year.
Which leave me with Heras and Basso.
Basso is the heir apparent. Heras is a proven rider.
The 06 TDF is eight months away - I think Heras could be the man. His team are strong and they had a good TDF and a super Vuelta.
Manolo Saiz never did get the timing right for the TDF in the ONCE era with Jalabert/Zulle.
Saiz has won everything else in the sport and he badly wants a TDF title.
All evidence points to Basso though : he has a great team and he is a classy rider.
The one caveat : Ullrich is the only man still in the peloton to have won the TDF.
It'll be a Heras/Basso fight as favourites : with everyone fearing Ullrich.
I think (or do i hope... I have met him once for a charity campaign and i really like him..) Ullrich will win the Tour. BUT it is gonna be a very hard (open) tour. Cunego will try, Menchov is having a strong team (Boogerd, Weening, Rasmussen) and is a dangerous opponent. And ofcourse Basso, Valverde and Vinokourov.limerickman said:
Boonen is going for the green jersey.
Heras - will ride the Tour as training - maybe go for a stage win. Too many TT miles for him even to think about GC.
Simoni - hates the Tour, won't ride it at all unless his team force him to. Also hates Cunego and wants to squash him in the Giro for all of Italy to see.
Cunego - Too much riding on a Giro repeat to even think about the Tour. Maybe if he has to sit the Giro out for injury or illness he'll go for it in the Tour, the way Basso did in 2005.
Kloden - Three crappy years, one good year, one mediocre year... I predict more mediocrity for 2006.
Vino - Likes people to think he's a GC guy, but he's happy with stage wins.
Landis - His team won't be behind him. You've gotta have confidence in your man.
Ullrich - Will pull ahead in the TTs and lose time in the mountains to Valverde and Basso.
Valverde - Won't get enough advantage in the mountains to make up for losses in TTs.
Basso - Will be the most consistent overall and wear yellow into Paris.
Simoni - hates the Tour, won't ride it at all unless his team force him to. Also hates Cunego and wants to squash him in the Giro for all of Italy to see.
Cunego - Too much riding on a Giro repeat to even think about the Tour. Maybe if he has to sit the Giro out for injury or illness he'll go for it in the Tour, the way Basso did in 2005.
Kloden - Three crappy years, one good year, one mediocre year... I predict more mediocrity for 2006.
Vino - Likes people to think he's a GC guy, but he's happy with stage wins.
Landis - His team won't be behind him. You've gotta have confidence in your man.
Ullrich - Will pull ahead in the TTs and lose time in the mountains to Valverde and Basso.
Valverde - Won't get enough advantage in the mountains to make up for losses in TTs.
Basso - Will be the most consistent overall and wear yellow into Paris.
Yes, one more rider bites the dust.cheapie said:you guys can cross heras off your list.
But at least with this one we can see the incredible up and down pattern, looked like **** in this year's TdF, and flew like crazy in the Vuelta.
Give me a break.
If ROberto does it, everyone does it.
On the other hand, if he had a 4 minute lead going into the last ITT, why would he micro dose EPO?
He was gonna win.
Why would he not just ride it out and win.
You would think that he would have micr dosed earlier to come back in the mountains like after he crashed etc.
He was super cool and confident of course, but if he were to turm positive, you would think that it would have been earlier.
Maybe its just a French conspiracy.
cheapie said:you guys can cross heras off your list.
Not until/unless his B sample comes back positive. There have actually been quite a few A+ B- tests for whatever reason (technicality, bad procedures, maybe even unreliable test?). He's suspended pending the B sample results but he wasn't planning on entering any races anyway.
The specifics of Heras's test make for good debate if you read up on microdosing and windows of testing.
Do not count out the Chicken. He will not make a fool of himself again in the ITT. Heras, Landis, Cunego, Simoni - no. The ones who kept close to Armstrong in the steep mountains will be the same ones to watch next year. Vinko didn't quite have it, over the long haul. Basso has to be the clear favourite, esp if his ITT skills continue to improve. CSC needs some more strength in support.
I think it will be Basso. I feel his team (CSC) is superior to the others and this will be a factor in the mountains. I think Ivan will do well in the ITT's but will be beaten by Ulle and and Zabriskie if he can stay on his bike. It breaks my heart but I don't think Ulle has a chance for GC next year. From the outside looking in, it seems T-Mobile lacks focus during the stages, on the other hand Riis seems have his team ready with a solid game plan.DiabloScott said:
I will miss the TTT in the 2006 TDF.
Have you seen the TDF tour poster for 2006 ? He He He
Lw
I suspect it's Basso's time. He is the most well-rounded of the contenders, IMO, and if he indeed dedicates himself to the TdF, then I think only a mishap or illness would stop him from winning it.
But I'd really love to see Ullrich do it again. For all his faults, he's really the only rider that has consistently created suspense during Armstrong's run. Ullrich is a flawed talent, and that's what makes him so intriguing, and, IMO, appealing in a decidedly non-Lance way. He will always be remembered as the perennial 2nd place to Armstrong, but if he could possibly will himself to a second top-of-the-podium finish, his career would also be defined by being a man who's TdF wins bookended Armstrong's dominance.
I will be rooting very hard for Der Kaiser next July.
But I'd really love to see Ullrich do it again. For all his faults, he's really the only rider that has consistently created suspense during Armstrong's run. Ullrich is a flawed talent, and that's what makes him so intriguing, and, IMO, appealing in a decidedly non-Lance way. He will always be remembered as the perennial 2nd place to Armstrong, but if he could possibly will himself to a second top-of-the-podium finish, his career would also be defined by being a man who's TdF wins bookended Armstrong's dominance.
I will be rooting very hard for Der Kaiser next July.
lwedge said:
Riis might very well like to pencil Valverde in for the Giro instead of the Tour, but unfortunately for Riis, Illes Balears DS José-Miguel Echávarri will be doing the penciling when it comes to Valverde.
I think you are probably thinking of CSC's Christian Vandevelde, who has been rumored to be CSC's top Giro rider.
Thanks tcklyde... You're right I was thinking of Vandevelde and no matter how many times I looked at Valverde it registered Vandevelde in my brain. I tried to change the post last night but could not access the thread do to the under powered laptop they use to serve this forum site. I tried for over an hour to access and kept getting " Server too busy, please try again later " ,I finally gave up.tcklyde said:
Well anyway, you started a good thread and it will be an interesting season for professional cycling.
Lw
lwedge said:I think it will be Basso. I feel his team (CSC) is superior to the others and this will be a factor in the mountains. I think Ivan will do well in the ITT's but will be beaten by Ulle and and Zabriskie if he can stay on his bike. It breaks my heart but I don't think Ulle has a chance for GC next year. From the outside looking in, it seems T-Mobile lacks focus during the stages, on the other hand Riis seems have his team ready with a solid game plan.
I will miss the TTT in the 2006 TDF.
Have you seen the TDF tour poster for 2006 ? He He He
Lw
Great poster LW.
To be honest CSC rode a **** 2005 Tour..... everyone says there were the second best team in this year's tour but what was the strategy ? I thought it was for Basso to win...? so what the f*ck were they doing sending Voight up the road for 200km to take the yellow jersey for a day ! He got sick two days later no doubt for his efforts... he should of been next to Basso the entire time... then they had Jacob Pil going up the road trying to win a stage and even Sastre..... it just seemed so muddled up the whole time... they should of been riding for Basso and Basso only.... what point is there have riders shooting of the front for individual stage glory when the aim should have been the big prize.... now before you say discovery sent Hincapie up the road on one stage there was one big difference... Discovery had the yellow jersey and it was the final week...... why send guys up the road in week 1 ! ?
lwedge said:I think it will be Basso. I feel his team (CSC) is superior to the others and this will be a factor in the mountains. I think Ivan will do well in the ITT's but will be beaten by Ulle and and Zabriskie if he can stay on his bike. It breaks my heart but I don't think Ulle has a chance for GC next year. From the outside looking in, it seems T-Mobile lacks focus during the stages, on the other hand Riis seems have his team ready with a solid game plan.
I will miss the TTT in the 2006 TDF.
Have you seen the TDF tour poster for 2006 ? He He He
Lw
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