Tour 2006 predictions.

[Roadrash Dunc]

To be honest CSC rode a **** 2005 Tour..... everyone says there were the second best team in this year's tour but what was the strategy ? I thought it was for Basso to win...? so what the f*ck were they doing sending Voight up the road for 200km to take the yellow jersey for a day ! He got sick two days later no doubt for his efforts... he should of been next to Basso the entire time... then they had Jacob Pil going up the road trying to win a stage and even Sastre..... it just seemed so muddled up the whole time... they should of been riding for Basso and Basso only.... what point is there have riders shooting of the front for individual stage glory when the aim should have been the big prize.... now before you say discovery sent Hincapie up the road on one stage there was one big difference... Discovery had the yellow jersey and it was the final week...... why send guys up the road in week 1 ! ?

Because if deep down they were honest with you , Riis and Basso would admit they didnt think they could beat Armstrong after he laid down the marker on the opening prologue.That was Tour over barring accident or illness.

CSC are a savvy outfit and have to be to keep sponsorship - they've almost gone bust a few times so stage wins in the Tour mean ALOT to them.Getting Zabriske and Voigt in Yellow wasnt just for the riders , it was for the sponsors and for the team as a whole - they ended the year top of the UCI Pro Tour team rankings.Thats not the sign of a team that doesnt know what its doing.

Next year will probably be different for CSC and Basso.There is no-one for them to fear (perversely true for T-Mobile and Ullrich aswell , so it *should* be a cracking race)

There are 2 things that play into Ullrichs hand thought next year : the lack of TTT (which obviously hurts CSC and Basso) and over 100k of ITT.
The course really is set up for him - its relatively easy the first 2 weeks - all the hurdles and chance to gain/lose alot of time are in the last week , when he is usually strong.

Next year has to be his best chance since he won it so i wouldnt rule him out - its almost on a silver platter for him.Just stay off the cakes Jan!
T-mobiles team ethic should be better without Vino aswell (and a good replacement in Rogers , even though he doesnt seem to peak for July) and perhaps for the first time in a while they will have 8 riders behind 1 leader.

(i'd rule Valverde out because of the sheer number of K against the clock. His TTing is still at least a step or 2 down from whats needed to win the TdF , the Testers GT.Maybe in 07 or 08 for him - should make podium)

 

[barnstorm]

2006 is going to be a blast. I enjoyed the Lance years a lot but am going to love seeing a more open field fight away. Perhaps it will be like this year's Giro that was amazing right to the finish.

Favorited have to be Basso and Ullrich

Basso - Pros
Greatly improved TT skills that could continue to improve
Great experience
Great team
DS who has won the tour himself

Basso - Cons
Will lose some time in TTs
If a pure climber shows up with form, he might lose mountain time, especially in the alps where he tends to be weaker
CSC doesn't seem to be able to get behind one rider a la Postal/Disco and loves sending the breakaway bandits up the road like Voigt, Piil, Sastre
No TTT where they would be the sure favorite going in

Ullrich - Pros
Seems determined to keep weight under control and has it in his contract, saw a cyclingnews story that compared his early season weight to tour performance year by year and low weight at season start correllates well to better tour performance
He was given full control of the team at the end of this season, brought back his man Rudy, given how awful a team Tmobile has been this can only be an improvement. I have believed that Tmo as a team was just a death sentence for riders. Look at all of the riders who failed with them then rejuvenated after leaving.
He has won before and clearly would have won more except for Lance. I think the race will be run much differently without Lance there and he will have a chance at losing less time in the mountains and he will be the one taking time on the TTs.

Ullrich - Cons
I still don't totally trust Tmobile as a decent team that gets the most out of its riders.
Does he have the killer instinct to get there in top form and destroy the opposition when the chips are down?

Next category is the young guns. These would be Cunego and Valverde. Valverde looks better in that he was in the tour before and showed he could compete. Cunego, on the other hand, climbed his way to a grand tour win. They are the future but is the future now? Wouldn't really suprise me but I predict their arrival in the fight for the top podium step to still be a year or two from now.

Next category, the top 10 types who might make a breakthrough. Landis - I don't think he has the talent to actually separate from the field, Levi - same deal. Vino - too erratic, Mancebo - terrible TTs and always loses just a little time in the mts. I don't see any of these guys breaking through

Next category, the overrated. These riders are always talked about because of performances elsewhere but who never can really put it together and crack huge when winning the TDF is really expected of them. Simoni, Heras (he may be done anyway), Mayo - huge talent but a complete sissy head case. Don't look for these guys on the podium or anywhere close

Final category - the Discos. Salvodelli will ride the Giro all out and not be the team leader at the tour, Hincapie - interesting buzz about this and could do top 10 but don't see Georgie winning, Popo - top 10 this year then we shall see but not yet.
so, my prediction, it's a coin flip right now between Ullrich and Basso but I have to go with Ullrich right now because all of the right things are happening at the team and in his camp. If those actually happen, he is the favorite, if they don't it's Basso's to lose.

 

[yjuosj]

One things is for sure!!! Next year the TDF will be one of the most exciting!!! If Ullrich manages to bring his tt & climbing abilities to the table (think 2003 TDF!). And Basso do what his been doing... Then I can tell you... We are in for one hell of a show!!! One thing is for sure all this expectations and predictions are very interisting and exciting to read!!! But who knows! maybe some rider that nobody expects to do anything to all, ends up win!!! I can't wait this next 8 and a half months are going to be eternally loooonnngggg!!!

 

[tcklyde]

I don't know what to say about Mancebo... I don't know enough about him. Is he in the shadow of Heras, Mayo, Valverde, Pereiro, Sastre?

But I am surprised few people have mentioned him. He rode a great final TT this year... Definitely above expectations. Sure, he rarely seems to figure in the last moments of the big climbs, but he is rarely more than a few seconds down. He is very consistent, if never stellar. And with a 6th place finish in 2004 and 4th this year, he is surely being underrated for 2006.

On what I know, I'd put him ahead of Landis, Kloden, and even Vino.

 

[tcklyde]

I threw this thread out on a whim and suggested Valverde will win. It's been a month or two, but I thought I'd offer a quick explication of why I think Valverde can do it.

First, narrow the field: Who are the riders capable of wining the TdF next year?

I see contending: Ullrich, Basso, Valverde, Cunego, Mancebo, Leipheimer, Vino, Kloden, Heras (assuming... well, you know), Evans, Azevedo, Menchov.

Who I don't see contending: Mayo, Hincapie, Popo (can win the TdF, but not next year), Rasmussen, Sastre.

A few observations:

Cunego: I assume that he is aiming for Giro no. 2. His time will come when he focuses on the TdF.

Ullrich: I agree with Lim -- he seems to have lost strength. But I would be a fool to write off Jan ... his natural talent is amazing... I reserve judgment. Even if he never wins again, he will be a great cyclist. I just wish he would race a bit more.

Landis: Good. Not great.

Heras: No TT, well, except with EPO.

Leipheimer: Consistent, strong. I'm a big fan. But I think just a tad too little on natural talent. His TT suffered this year. Good in the TdG, didn't figure in the TdF climbs.

Kloden: I don't much care for Kloden. If he trains and doesn't get injured, maybe.

Vino: Like DiabloScott says, he cares about stages, not the overall. He does do a nice TT, though.

Azevedo: Extremely underrated, but like Landis, one peg below the best.

Mancebo: Like I said, I wish I knew more. Probably underrated, but can he deliver?

Basso: The favorite. But Basso has been a slow build: he's an exceptional climber and has shown steady improvement. But he has never shown the sort of raw power and ambition that the TdF demands. Can he explode on a big climb and put time into the other climbers? Perhaps, but I just don't feel like I've seen it yet. I thought he rode a stronger Tour in 2004 than 2005, despite a better placing in 2005. If he can't match 2004, he won't match Valverde in 2006.

Of those that I see contending, none are as explosive as Valverde. He blitzed LA on Courchevel, in a move LA clearly respected. I think his showing at the Worlds shows a well wounded rider. He wants to win the TdF. And I think he has more natural talent than Basso.

Many people question Valverde in TT. But I'm not sure we've seen Valverde's true potential against the clock yet. Basso has been working and fans have followed his improvement, but no one really knows what Valverde is capable of on a TT. My guess is that he is a lot better than people think. And when you add those two together, I think we have a new TdF winner.

 

[limerickman]

In thinking about the TDF 2006 - and I might add this concentration upon the TDF is ridiculous when you consider all of the great racing between the start of the season and the TDF - I think that ultimately the battle will come down to TMobile and CSC, with possibly DC featuring.

I would not be surprised if DC aligned itself with Basso (or any other contender) to try to deprive Ullrich (Telekom) of victory, if no DC is in the running to win overall.
Given Armstrong's pathological hatred of Telekom (not Ullrich) this could well occur.

Regarding Mancebo : he's been a very consistent rider in all grand tours but he just seems to be that 1% below the radar when it comes to getting top spot.
He's a great rider nonetheless.

 

[Capt.Injury]

I threw this thread out on a whim and suggested Valverde will win. It's been a month or two, but I thought I'd offer a quick explication of why I think Valverde can do it.

First, narrow the field: Who are the riders capable of wining the TdF next year?

I see contending: Ullrich, Basso, Valverde, Cunego, Mancebo, Leipheimer, Vino, Kloden, Heras (assuming... well, you know), Evans, Azevedo, Menchov.

Who I don't see contending: Mayo, Hincapie, Popo (can win the TdF, but not next year), Rasmussen, Sastre.

A few observations:

Cunego: I assume that he is aiming for Giro no. 2. His time will come when he focuses on the TdF.

Ullrich: I agree with Lim -- he seems to have lost strength. But I would be a fool to write off Jan ... his natural talent is amazing... I reserve judgment. Even if he never wins again, he will be a great cyclist. I just wish he would race a bit more.

Landis: Good. Not great.

Heras: No TT, well, except with EPO.

Leipheimer: Consistent, strong. I'm a big fan. But I think just a tad too little on natural talent. His TT suffered this year. Good in the TdG, didn't figure in the TdF climbs.

Kloden: I don't much care for Kloden. If he trains and doesn't get injured, maybe.

Vino: Like DiabloScott says, he cares about stages, not the overall. He does do a nice TT, though.

Azevedo: Extremely underrated, but like Landis, one peg below the best.

Mancebo: Like I said, I wish I knew more. Probably underrated, but can he deliver?

Basso: The favorite. But Basso has been a slow build: he's an exceptional climber and has shown steady improvement. But he has never shown the sort of raw power and ambition that the TdF demands. Can he explode on a big climb and put time into the other climbers? Perhaps, but I just don't feel like I've seen it yet. I thought he rode a stronger Tour in 2004 than 2005, despite a better placing in 2005. If he can't match 2004, he won't match Valverde in 2006.


I think Mancebo can very likely be the rider to take the 3rd podium spot behind Ullrich and Basso. He has consistently been in the Top 10. He always seems like a rider who just tries to stay wit hthe leaders without attacking. Any guy who can finish 4th in 2 Grand Tours in the same year, seems to me a dangerous guy to keep an eye on nonetheless. The question is how strong will his AG2r team will be to help. I can't think of too many times he has received help from his team in setting the tempo in the TDF, or even helping him out, so if his new team rides for him, maybe that will help him vault up to the podium spot.

In terms of Vino, He does seem to focus on stages, but his aggresive nature, can take a toll on the rest of the race. This TDF has a few medium mountain stages, which seems to be the stages he likes to take advantage of. Heck, this man took advantage of a little lull in the field, and won the final stage in Paris, beating out all the sprinters on a notorious sprinters-heavy stage.

 

[Andrija]

This is how I see the things, Ullrich, Basso and Vinokurov will be on the podium. I'm almost 100% sure Vino will take the third place, just because he will have team tailored for him working for him. He's not capable of wining 'cause he can't calculate his strength (we saw that this year), he's killing himself on the climbs. About Valverde, he will win the Tour (several times) but not next year. Here's why, he is weak time trialist even in medium and short TTs, not to mention TDF 50+ km. TTs. He will improve his time trialing, that's certain, but he can't do much about that just in one winter time. He is probably the best climber among GC contenders (and most explosive), but I see just one explosive climb in 2006 TDF - L' Alpe d' Huez and all big guns will be preparing and carefully watching that climb, so Valverde won't be able to gain much time on L' Alpe d' Huez. I see his chance in Armstrong-like attack on the first mountain-top finish of the race - Pla d' Beret, although it's not to steep and hard climb, it's first and if he can surprise Basso, Ullrich and Vinokurov he can, maybe, finish on the podium (not higher than third). And one more thing, not too important but interesting to mention, he has never finished the Tour (in fact it will be his second), so we actually don't know how does he look in third week.

And now about winner, I say (again) it will be decided in final TT. Basso will gain some time in the mountains, Ullrich on TTs, so who does better where is weak, he will win. I truly hope it will be Ullrich.

And about other riders like Landis, Leipheimer, Mancebo, Heras (if...)etc. I don't see them like true TDF GC contenders, more like top 10 riders.

And there is the future of cycling - Cunego, he will ride next Tour to learn and probably to win L' Alpe d' Huez, 'cause there is no chance for him on this kind of route for GC, second - his main objective is Giro and winning L' Alpe d' Huez would be the only way for him to show his class and potential, besides Simoni hinted L' Alpe d' Huez as his main Tour objective so I think Cunego has something to say about that (imagine that showdown after numerous Giro duels). And the only thing bigger than winning L' Alpe d' Huez is winning the Tour, so Alpe is the only stage on Cunegos level of reputation.

In the future, Cunego vs. Valverde will be duel to watch and talk about, but next year it's still Basso vs. Ullrich.

 

[barnstorm]

Great points guys. Limerickman nailed it about Mancebo. Great rider, totally loveable. He has the funny head tilt and crazy pained facial expressions regardless of how he is riding. Hangs a lot in the mts. Attacks the short uphill finishes. But TTs like **** with the big boys. He TTs ok at the Vuelta but let's face it, Vuelta tts and TDF TTs are not in the same league. The TDF TTs are where the big boys really come out to play. He will always figure but never for the top step. Will he take third in the tour once... maybe at best

Andrija's point about Cunego and ADH is very interesting. What a great way to arrive at the TDF when he might not have the body of work behind him to win YET. Like Mayo when he did it in 2003, if Cunego is willing to sell out for one big mt stage win, I don't thing there is a soul in the world who can go with him.... including Simoni as proven in 2004 Giro. The only other people who might have been in the same sentence with Cunego as pure climbers are Mayo who has completely cracked under the pressure he created for himself by winning the Dauphine in 2004 and H(EPO)ras who might have been able to keep up on a given day but now we know why. So, an argument can be made that ADH will be a goal for Cunego and if it is, look the hell out.

 

[tcklyde]

In terms of Vino, He does seem to focus on stages, but his aggresive nature, can take a toll on the rest of the race. This TDF has a few medium mountain stages, which seems to be the stages he likes to take advantage of. Heck, this man took advantage of a little lull in the field, and won the final stage in Paris, beating out all the sprinters on a notorious sprinters-heavy stage.

You're right. No question: Vino's move on the last stage showed him to be a brilliant tactical rider. Sometimes he hopes for more than he actually has ... but you have to miss a few shots to occasionally score the big one. Vino is one of the most exciting riders in the peloton. Riders like Voigt, Peirero and Vino always keep it exciting.

 

[bobke]

In thinking about the TDF 2006 - and I might add this concentration upon the TDF is ridiculous when you consider all of the great racing between the start of the season and the TDF - I think that ultimately the battle will come down to TMobile and CSC, with possibly DC featuring.

I would not be surprised if DC aligned itself with Basso (or any other contender) to try to deprive Ullrich (Telekom) of victory, if no DC is in the running to win overall.
Given Armstrong's pathological hatred of Telekom (not Ullrich) this could well occur.

Regarding Mancebo : he's been a very consistent rider in all grand tours but he just seems to be that 1% below the radar when it comes to getting top spot.
He's a great rider nonetheless.

How would DC align itself with CSC? How would it work in Disco's favour?
I see no evidence that Lance bears any ill feeling toward T-Mobile-he tried to recruit Vino and Ullrich apparently. Is there soem story of bad blood?

Mancebo is very consistent as a GT rider and has been below the radar in terms of press. In fact, he probably has been the most consistent GT rider
besides Armstrong Basso and only a few others, but has far more results and consistency than a lot of others touted as possible winners--Mayo Landis Levi etc. Mancebo has steadily improved since winning the white jersey. It would be interesting if he got Riis or Bruyneel to work with. Wonder why he hasn't or why they haven't?

Mancebo a la TdF:
7 participations
1999 28e
2000 9e A remporté le maillot blanc
2001 13e
2002 7e
2003 10e
2004 6e
2005 4e

 

[limerickman]

Re Ag2R : there was an article in yesterdays Irish Times about Ag2R and their prospects for getting a TDF spot for 2006 : Mancebo has signed for them and
the team includes two Irish riders (Mark Scanlon 1998 U-21 World Road Race Champion and Philip Deignan).

Ag2R are confident that they will get an invite to the TDF : Scanlon was interviewed for the article and he says that Mancebo signed with the objective of leading Ag2R in the 2006 TDF.

Just looking at some other riders, Leipheimer had a storming 2004 and a great TDF.
He's certainly a candidate for top 10 - could he podium ?

And I agree with the words about Vino : he's a very exciting rider.

I look forward to seeing Cunego in France as well : Alpe D'Huez should be good too.

 

[Capt.Injury]

Re Ag2R : there was an article in yesterdays Irish Times about Ag2R and their prospects for getting a TDF spot for 2006 : Mancebo has signed for them and
the team includes two Irish riders (Mark Scanlon 1998 U-21 World Road Race Champion and Philip Deignan).

Ag2R are confident that they will get an invite to the TDF : Scanlon was interviewed for the article and he says that Mancebo signed with the objective of leading Ag2R in the 2006 TDF.

Just looking at some other riders, Leipheimer had a storming 2004 and a great TDF.
He's certainly a candidate for top 10 - could he podium ?

And I agree with the words about Vino : he's a very exciting rider.

I look forward to seeing Cunego in France as well : Alpe D'Huez should be good too.

For some reason I think I remembevr Ag2r having another good signing, a guy with some good results in the TDF in the past that could help Mancebo and help AG2R's case. Maybe Christophe Rinero? Thats the name that is coming to mind for some reason.

 

[limerickman]

For some reason I think I remembevr Ag2r having another good signing, a guy with some good results in the TDF in the past that could help Mancebo and help AG2R's case. Maybe Christophe Rinero? Thats the name that is coming to mind for some reason.

Christophe Moreau, perhaps ?

 

[Capt.Injury]

Christophe Moreau, perhaps ?

Wow I need to work on your memory recall, thanks Lime.

 

[limerickman]

Wow I need to work on your memory recall, thanks Lime.

No problem - as an after thought, Christophe Rinero is/was cycling with RAGT team.
I remember him finishing third in the 1998 TDF and winning the KOM's jersey

 

[Capt.Injury]

Wow I need to work on your memory recall, thanks Lime.

Amendment, My Memory Recall

 

[barnstorm]

Christophe Moreau, perhaps ?

Moreau signed with AG2R? I missed that one. I am usually up to speed on the important moves. I guess he doesn't really matter though... being French and all.

 

[cyclingheroes]

Moreau signed with AG2R? I missed that one. I am usually up to speed on the important moves. I guess he doesn't really matter though... being French and all.

Yeah Moreau signed with AG2R.

By the way, i was at the team presentation of Gerolsteiner yesterday and Levi Leipheimer told me that he felt much stronger as last year. He is going for a top 3 spot at the TDF and said that a surprise is possible. He believes that it will be an open race full of surprises...

 

[Mtventoux]

1. Basso
2. Valverde
3. Vino
4. Ullrich
5. Evans
6. Leipheimer
7. Popovich
8. Landis
9. Mancebo
10.Cunego