Ullrich's Intentions

[Cam the Ram]

Ullrich has finished 2nd in the Tour 5 times! Wouldn't you think he was tired of being in this position? Does Ullrich make a lot of money being Armstrong's "toughest rival"? I would say screw the coaches and managers and ride the race on my terms, if I was Ullrich. Don't you think he should be attacking on all the stages? What does he have to lose?

 

[patch70]

What does he have to lose by attacking on every stage?
The race! Why bother exhausting yourself in flat stages when it will be relatively easy to chase him down by the end of the stage?
Better to conserve his legs for when it matters: the time trials and the hills. That is where the race can potentially be won by Jan.

 

[Cam the Ram]

I have never seen Ullrich and Armstrong in an all out flat-stage chase. If Ullrich has the chance to rip even 30 seconds off Armstrong, he should do it!

 

[patch70]

Originally posted by Cam the Ram
I have never seen Ullrich and Armstrong in an all out flat-stage chase. If Ullrich has the chance to rip even 30 seconds off Armstrong, he should do it!

To get those 30 seconds would require a super human effort and would leave him weaker later on in the hills when big time differences are possible.

 

[gntlmn]

Ullrich gets mega publicity from Lance and the media. Every Tour, they keep talking about the Ullrich threat. Yes, he would be getting much more exposure and higher earnings if he won, but I wouldn't mind being in Ullrich's shoes as far as respect and acclaim are concerned. He is a force to be reckoned with.

As for his bragging last year about how strong he was going to be this year, comparing his and Lance's rivalry to the Stallone's "Rocky", well, I'm not so sure. Jan is doing well, but not dominating yet. We'll see if he's holding something back so far. I was expecting him to be closer to Lance in the Time Trial prologue. And the TTT was not much more forgiving for him either. But of course, he also doesn't have Vinokourov. When he made big claims, he still thought Vino would be in the Tour.

 

[Cam the Ram]

Well, hopefully he is just playing mind games with Armstrong right now. I really want to see Ullrich dominate this time around. I wouldn't mind seeing Tyler or Heras winning this Tour as well...

 

[ed073]

Originally posted by Cam the Ram
Well, hopefully he is just playing mind games with Armstrong right now. I really want to see Ullrich dominate this time around. I wouldn't mind seeing Tyler or Heras winning this Tour as well...

Get your video out of the 1997 Tour if you want to see Jan dominate. Untouchable.

 

[musette]

One who is attempting the GC win doesn't relinquish seconds in the Prologue and not win the TTT just to play mind games with one's major rival, the five-time-winner. It's sad for JU, but JU would be crazy not to be trying his best at this point.

I wonder what Pavenage's role has been in the Tour 04 so far.

 

[patch70]

Jan, like Lance, is saving himself for the second half of the tour as that is where the real action will be. Less than a minute difference now is acceptable provided he can peak in the mountains.

 

[musette]

How exactly is Jan going to peak in the mountains, as you say? How is Jan going to take time from LA there?

 

[patch70]

Strangely enough, by beating him! Lance is human remember. It is not guaranteed that Lance is going to have all good days in the hills. With constant attacks from the GC contenders plus the climbers, Lance is vulnerable. This was shown last year and anyone that wants to win has to try this again.

 

[ed073]

Originally posted by musette
One who is attempting the GC win doesn't relinquish seconds in the Prologue and not win the TTT just to play mind games with one's major rival, the five-time-winner. It's sad for JU, but JU would be crazy not to be trying his best at this point.

I wonder what Pavenage's role has been in the Tour 04 so far.

WTF??? "Relinquish seconds"???

You try riding 6km in 7 minutes and see how many seconds you "relinquish"....

 

[Cam the Ram]

Well, as we saw in Stage 5, minutes can be gained in the right flat-stage attack. I wish Ullrich could have been in that group of riders who managed to gain more than 10 minutes!

 

[patch70]

Originally posted by Cam the Ram
Well, as we saw in Stage 5, minutes can be gained in the right flat-stage attack. I wish Ullrich could have been in that group of riders who managed to gain more than 10 minutes!

There is a bit of difference letting 5 non-GC contenders go away compared to letting Jan ride away.
Quite a few people tried to break away but anyone that was vaguely a threat (icluding Hincapie!) was chased down.

 

[steve]

Originally posted by Cam the Ram
Well, as we saw in Stage 5, minutes can be gained in the right flat-stage attack. I wish Ullrich could have been in that group of riders who managed to gain more than 10 minutes!

If Ullrich was in that group, it wouldnt have gained 10 seconds.

regards

 

[limerickman]

I can see the basis of your question – why shouldn’t JU attack and attack each and every stage ?

The TDF in recent years has adopted the tactic of minimizing time lost in the first few stages and then hoping that if there is a weakness amongst the major contenders on GC,
that this weakness will be exposed in the high mountains.
More often than not, it is JU who wilts before LA does, in the mountains.
There is some validity in thinking that perhaps a different tactical approach might work for JU against LA.
Perhaps.
But JU is aware that in this years TDF, LA has now also got TH to contend with (whereas last year, LA had really only had JU to consider as a possible challenger)
JU may be keeping his powder dry in the expectation that sooner or later TH will have to start going for GC against LA and that in doing so, JU might just be able to benefit if TH puts up a tough enough challenge.
JU could find himself being overhauled by TH, in the event of his (TH’s) challenge to LA.

There is still over two weeks to go in the TDF – a lot can happen in that time frame.
But yes, the window of opportunity reduces the longer JU (and TH) refrain from attacking outright, LA.

 

[musette]

There just aren't that many opportunities for time gains on flat stages, if you are a major contender like JU and other major GC contenders' teams are going to watch you closely. I don't think JU is missing opportunities -- there are fewer opportunities in this phase of the TdF. Also, note that JU also knows LA has a stronger team who can control the peloton extremely effectively.

LA has a wasted spot with Zabel. A problem-ridden rider and not too dependable rider in Santiago Botero. He has his buddies that he likes to ride with. But, if JU needed to distance himself from LA on the flats, how is he going to do that?

 

[DeRosa_AV]

There is no point in attacking LA in these early stages USP would just chase everything down. It will be won in the mountains and ITT. I think mayo may well be the wild card now he is so far down on GC and has nothing to lose by being agressive, TH and JU benefit because USP will be weaker in having to defend the lead. A couple of really hot days for the TT and JU could be in business, Armstrongs ability to quickly change pace on the mountain TT will not give him any advantage.

 

[limerickman]

I agree with Musette and De Rosa - effectively there is no point in attacking on the flat stages for JU.
However I can see that the usual tactics of waiting for the mountains and for one of the GC candidates to crack tactics, has not worked for JU in the past either.

It's a quandry - I think the ommission of Cadel Evans and the inclusion of Zabel has effectively tied one hand behind JU's back.

 

[DiabloScott]

This is going to be the most tactically interesting Tours in a long time. There are so many people who can and will attack, each with their own strengths, none of them can afford to just wait and react - they'll have to make their own race. I think we'll see some pretty creative moves, and while the favorites are marking each other the spoilers will be forcing their hands. The stage to La Mongie looks like the official ringing of the bell.