Virenque Eyes Polka Dots--Avoids Confrontation



gntlmn

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Jul 28, 2003
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Did you notice that Virenque finished back 11 minutes plus today? His intent is to get the KOM title again, and to do so he would want to avoid being a serious contender for the GC. Today, he stepped a little closer by taking himself out of GC contention while still holding a huge KOM lead and resting relative to the other good climbers. Now the peloton will let him go when he chooses because he is not a threat in the Tour. He is setting himself up for another stage win or first to the summit ascent.
 
This is his standard approach. He views the polka dot jersey as his personal property. At least he has improved in his old age and does not do every single cat 4 kom sprint for a few points (although I do not understand why Bettini did it this year).

I think that the 'old' strong Pantani said something to that effect - (I paraphrase) - ...Virenque only rides for the KOM, when everyone, even the rocks by the roadside (Italian saying, doesn't really translate, I know) know I am a stronger climber. :D

FORZA BASSO!
 
gntlmn -- Virenque's going more slowly definitely had the advantage you describe (and probably intentionally). However, it was also also beneficial for another reason. Even though the final climb of the day carries more points for his jersey, he probably guessed LA would be very interested in winning the stage and would engage in one of his signature moves. Therefore, he likely thought that the people behind him for the polka dot race would not get the points (nor would Virenque) on the final mountain stage. Why not rest up for another long breakway in the Alps?

In fact, Virenque is less than 15 minutes down from LA in the GC. If I were Virenque, I would have gone even slower, so that LA would give me even more room in Tuesday's stage to get the mountain points.
 
musette said:
gntlmn -- Virenque's going more slowly definitely had the advantage you describe (and probably intentionally). However, it was also also beneficial for another reason. Even though the final climb of the day carries more points for his jersey, he probably guessed LA would be very interested in winning the stage and would engage in one of his signature moves. Therefore, he likely thought that the people behind him for the polka dot race would not get the points (nor would Virenque) on the final mountain stage. Why not rest up for another long breakway in the Alps?

In fact, Virenque is less than 15 minutes down from LA in the GC. If I were Virenque, I would have gone even slower, so that LA would give me even more room in Tuesday's stage to get the mountain points.

Yes. Plateau de Beille would have indeed been a pyrrhic victory for Virenque. He knows what he wants, and he's going to get it.

The fact that he is 11 minutes behind is probably enough to relieve the GC contenders given that Virenque is a lousy time trialer. Alpe d'Huez TT, on the other hand, mmmm.... He might do pretty good there. He might even win that one.

As badly as Heras and Mayo cracked in the mountains, it would be tough to argue that they could have beaten Virenque even if they had adopted his tactics and avoided contending for GC. They would still have been beaten.
 
I wonder if a Yellow Jersey can win the Polka Dot, or does that mean the second person in line for the Polka Dot gets it. Virenque is at 177 pts, only 35 points before LA's 142. ;)

Interesting, here are the KOM points rules, from cycling4all.com:

Hors Category -- 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 1 -- 15, 13, 11, 9, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 2 -- 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 3 -- 4, 3, 2 et 1
Category 4 -- 3, 2, et 1

if a mountain of the "hors" category or of the categories 1 or 2 is the last climb of the stage, the points which can be obtained on this mountain will be doubled.

Tomorrow:
1 Hors Category
3 mountains at Category 1 (1 is the last climb of the day and double points, for 30 POINTS!)
1 mountain at Category 2

Day after:
1 mountain at Category 2
2 at Category 3
2 at Category 4

To Paris:
1 at Category 4

Virenque needs to do another solo independent ride attempt tomorrow, to gather up as many points as possible. Unfortunately for Virenque, there are others who are desperate to get onto the podium (JU) or to provide insulation from slipping off the podium (Basso, given his poor flat ITT skills), and those other people are not people LA will let ride off. Virenque has to get into a break that does not include those JU, Kloden or Basso. Yet Basso's CSC probably won't let him do that, as Basso wants every time bonus he can get at the end to provide further insulation from Kloden. So, Virenque will be controlled by CSC.

Basso's going to want to gain time on Kloden and JU. If I were in Ris' shoes, I would approach Bruyneel and suggest collaboration with USPS to set a high tempo, in a bid to drop Kloden and JU earlier rather than later. As Ris, I would offer to do most of the work, in return for LA letting Basso win the stage if the two were the only ones left at the end. That way, Basso gets only 8" on LA, but trieds to build up further the buffer from Kloden/JU. LA might agree to that, given Basso no longer being as big a threat and given their non-cycling friendship.
 
musette said:
I wonder if a Yellow Jersey can win the Polka Dot, or does that mean the second person in line for the Polka Dot gets it. Virenque is at 177 pts, only 35 points before LA's 142. ;)

Interesting, here are the KOM points rules, from cycling4all.com:

Hors Category -- 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 1 -- 15, 13, 11, 9, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 2 -- 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 et 5
Category 3 -- 4, 3, 2 et 1
Category 4 -- 3, 2, et 1

if a mountain of the "hors" category or of the categories 1 or 2 is the last climb of the stage, the points which can be obtained on this mountain will be doubled.

Tomorrow:
1 Hors Category
3 mountains at Category 1 (1 is the last climb of the day and double points, for 30 POINTS!)
1 mountain at Category 2

Day after:
1 mountain at Category 2
2 at Category 3
2 at Category 4

To Paris:
1 at Category 4

Virenque needs to do another solo independent ride attempt tomorrow, to gather up as many points as possible. Unfortunately for Virenque, there are others who are desperate to get onto the podium (JU) or to provide insulation from slipping off the podium (Basso, given his poor flat ITT skills), and those other people are not people LA will let ride off. Virenque has to get into a break that does not include those JU, Kloden or Basso. Yet Basso's CSC probably won't let him do that, as Basso wants every time bonus he can get at the end to provide further insulation from Kloden. So, Virenque will be controlled by CSC.

Basso's going to want to gain time on Kloden and JU. If I were in Ris' shoes, I would approach Bruyneel and suggest collaboration with USPS to set a high tempo, in a bid to drop Kloden and JU earlier rather than later. As Ris, I would offer to do most of the work, in return for LA letting Basso win the stage if the two were the only ones left at the end. That way, Basso gets only 8" on LA, but trieds to build up further the buffer from Kloden/JU. LA might agree to that, given Basso no longer being as big a threat and given their non-cycling friendship.

I really didn't think Lance would be in contention for the KOM jersey before the Tour started, but it appears that may be the case.

A rider is not limited to only one jersey. He may win all three--overall, mountains and points--without penalty for having another. Eddy Merckx is the only Tour de France rider to win all three jerseys in one year, 1969--the same year he also won all three jerseys in the Tour of Italy. He won 445 professional races in all, an untouchable record.

As for Virenque riding off with Eddy's son Axel again, I kind of doubt it given that Virenque took the stage win on that very long stage he won. But he may have already made plans with another to attack. He can't pick one of the GC contenders for the reasoning you mention. But someone who is fairly close to contention and wants to gain time but is not an overall GC threat for the podium will be motivated. It's just a matter of attacking when the others don't suspect it.

Armstrong is the main threat to Virenque's polka dots. He may tail attacks to avoid having them get away, but he may not be too motivated to get more mountain points. In that case, Virenque would retain the jersey. Virenque will be watching carefully who gets the points. If Basso, Kloden, Ullrich, Rasmussen each win, Virenque's job is easier.

Virenque 177pts
Armstrong 142
Basso 101
Kloden 96
Rasmussen 95
Ullrich 93
Moreau 78
 
Someone like Rasmussen or Leipheimer, for that someone also needs to be a good climber, but, as you mention, not that high up in the GC (each at least 15 minutes away from LA). Although each of them might still be too high at this late stage in the TdF. Which one is the weaker ITT?

The person Virenque picks should be (1) at least 15-20 minutes down in the GC, (2) a known mediocre ITT or at least not good, and (3) be a good climber who can last. Virenque has to go before the Madeleine on his solo/duo attempt. Virenque knows LA may win the stage.

On second thought, Sevilla at 25 minutes down from LA might be a decent choice of Sevilla can show some decent form.
 
Simoni should have given Virenque the highest points on the Col de la Madeleine. Simoni is not going for anything, with his only advantage to being first being the 5000 euros prize. He should have known Virenque is going for a historic 7th jersey, and let Virenque get the full HC points. Fortunately, the difference between first and second is only 2 points.
 
musette said:
Simoni should have given Virenque the highest points on the Col de la Madeleine. Simoni is not going for anything, with his only advantage to being first being the 5000 euros prize. He should have known Virenque is going for a historic 7th jersey, and let Virenque get the full HC points. Fortunately, the difference between first and second is only 2 points.
I think Simoni was making a statement by making it first across the summit of the Col de la Madeleine. It wasn't a very big statement considering the margin, but he did get there first, edging out Virenque. That was the highest summit of the 2004 Tour where the air is thinnest, and indeed it is an hors category climb.

The thing is, there's nothing in it for Simoni to have given anything to Virenque. They aren't on the same teams, and they're not from the same countries.

Virenque now increased his lead, after stage 17, from 35 points ahead of Armstrong to 58. It was a very good day for Virenque. I think Landis actually did better on the mountains today than Virenque, but Virenque knows when to lay it on and when he can rest. He doesn't care about GC or being a domestique. Likewise, Landis job was to help Lance, not to compete for KOM.

It appears that Virenque has the KOM jersey cinched for this year. He will be breaking the all time record for the most overall King of the Mountains jerseys ever. After the 2003 Tour, he was tied with Van Impe and Bahamontes with 6 overall polka dot jerseys. Now he will have 7.

Here is a computation of how much a competitor can gain on Virenque by the end of the Tour if one guy wins all remaining climbs.

Stage 18--Friday
1 Cat 2 10
2 Cat 3 2*4 8
2 Cat 4 2*3 6

Stage 19--Saturday TT, no climbs

Stage 20--Sunday
1 Cat 4 3

Total 27 pts.

Since the spread between Virenque and 2nd place Lance is 58 pts now for KOM after stage 17, it is impossible for anyone but Virenque to win the Polka Dot Jersey when the Tour ends in Paris unless Virenque does not finish or gets dq'd. He doesn't have to win any more mountain points at all.

The reason that the stage or overall GC contenders don't follow Virenque is that he attacks when it makes no sense from a stage win or GC perspective. Like for example today, when he was pouring it on to get to the summit of the Col de la Madeleine. The Posties knew that would use up too much energy too soon in the stage. So they let him go, conserving their energy for the stage win.