>>>>> "Bleve" == Bleve <
[email protected]> writes:
Bleve> heh, there's a paper with an axe to grind
Just about every paper published has an axe to grind. A paper doesn't
get written unless someone's trying to prove something.
Bleve> Interestingly, it cites stats that somewhere around 30-45% of
Bleve> teenagers and adults stopped riding in the two years after
Bleve> helmets were made compulsory - but also states that there was
Bleve> a 35-70% reduction in head injurys reported.
Bleve> Now, I didn't do super well at Uni when doing maths (I got to
Bleve> do a few subjects rather more than once
), but I'd find it
Bleve> difficult to draw any conclusions from that (and the author
Bleve> admits, not very good quality research) that didn't suggest
Bleve> that there was a significant improvement.
Bleve> I'm intrigued as to the use of pedestrians as a control
Bleve> group, and the reduction of head injuries there that seem to
Bleve> match. There's no attempt to suggest why peds were showing
Bleve> up less at hospitals with serious head injuries. Did
Bleve> something change in the water in 1985?
Indeed, so if pedestrians head injury rate is going down in sympathy
with that of cyclists, how does that prove that helmets have been
effective in reducing the incidence of head injury?
Bleve> Now, Euan, read the second last paragraph. I'll save you the
Bleve> effort of finding it : "helmets undoutably prevent wounds to
Bleve> the head". My take on that paper is that it's desperatly
Bleve> looking for ways to show that helmets don't work, and even
Bleve> then, it has to admit it in the end, where no-one will look,
Bleve> after muddying up a lot of already very muddy statistics, and
Bleve> somehow claiming that white, educated people have less
Bleve> prangs, not that they're more likely to wear a lid. I didn't
Bleve> see anything in the paper that matched if people presenting
Bleve> with HI's were actually *wearing* their lids, but I may have
Bleve> missed that bit, if it's in there somewhere?
Fair point, however it would be a long bow to suppose that all the
admissions were not wearing helmets when compliance with the law has
gone up to 85%. It's also possible that that data isn't available.
It's only recently in the UK that those statistics have started to be
collected, can't speak for here.
I'm not disputing that helmets offer some protection in some cases. I'm
stating two things:
1) Helmets effectiveness is vastly over-rated by the majority of
practicing cyclists.
2) Compulsion reduced the number cycling and may still be a barrier to
cycling.
So let's stop batting the ``helmet saved my life'' stories. I've
proved that I believe I've had significant head accidents and walked
away relatively scot free, you've proved that you believe wearing a
helmet saved you from significant head trauma, so let's move on and
debate 1) and 2).
Bleve> It also harps on about decining numbers of riders as a safety
Bleve> concern. I say that in the long term numbers of people
Bleve> riding bikes has probably not changed significantly because
Bleve> of helmet law, but *may* have changed becase now joe average
Bleve> can afford two cars. Or maybe not. But you don't know either
Bleve> way.
It's one of these things that's hard to pin down. I know my
mother-in-law won't consider cycling because a helmet will muss up here
hair. I'd have thought the wind would have done that quite adequately
but there you go.
It's one of those imponderables that we'll never know. I suspect if
compulsion were lifted we'd see more people cycling. You believe
otherwise.
Bleve> At the end of the day, that paper is all guesswork.
Which bits are guesswork? The time-series data regarding head injury
pre and post compulsion compared with that of random breath testing
being introduced seems quite significant to me.
Bleve> add bugger-all weight (mine's 200-odd grams and isn't
Bleve> sticking out like a pendulum, my hair, when wet and long,
Bleve> probably weighed more ...) compared to motorbike helmets
Bleve> which are very heavy and may well increase the injury rate
Bleve> for rotational force crashes. I reckon the tradeoff is so
Bleve> minor that the inconvenience of a helmet (worrying about
Bleve> helmet-head? That wind will blow your hair all over the shop
Bleve> anyway ....
Hmm, guess who's replying to the post as he's reading it ;-) See
earlier.
Bleve> you'll still have to brush it if it's an issue) is far
Bleve> outweighed by the (even if it's very slim) reduction in the
Bleve> severity of some classes of head injury.
It's not the injury reduction I'm arguing, it's the reduction in the
number of cyclists. I believe helmet compulsion is a barrier and I've
yet to be convinced otherwise.
--
Cheers | ~~ __@
Euan | ~~ _-\<,
Melbourne, Australia | ~ (*)/ (*)