T
Tom Ewall
Guest
This (Zeno's post below) is well written and well reasonsed. The fact of the matter is the rain
helped Ullrich's chances for two reasons. First of all, it's easier to gain time on a slower course,
not a faster one. Secondly the rain added a large chance factor by making crashes possible. The
possibility of a crash was by far LA's greatest danger of losing the race.
If you look at the five prevous TDF time trials before this year, Lance won all 5. The first TT this
year started out even and then Lance faded. There was no reason whatsoever to expect that Ulrich
would win by a large margin.
I think both riders are very evenly matched and am fans of both. It's a shame one had to lose.
> Michael wrote:
>
> >> That's faulty - The turns didn't come until the last 10k. Up till then it was straight and
> >> flat and JAN was not dominant.
> >
> >
> > Not quite so faulty. At Cap Decouverte, Ullrich and Armstrong had exactly the same time at the
> > first checkpoint, just as they did today at Nantes. In Cap Decouverte, Ullrich turned on the
> > jets and put a minute and a half on Armstrong in the latter half of the race.
> >
> > That's his modus operandi, but the weather did not permit a full out race for him.
> >
>
> I knew after the first 15K time check that Lance had it in the bag, if he didn't crash.
>
> It is not in his "modus operandi" to lose more than 10 lbs of body weight in a 50k TT like he did
> at Cap Decouverte. That was the result of a week of riding at record breaking 90 degree+(f)
> temperatures, capped by over 100 degrees in the TT, combined with inadequate hydration. That was
> clearly *the* contributing factor why Jan was able to pick up that much time over the last 35K.
> And of course, the effects of that dehydration became more and more pronounced as that TT went on.
>
> This fluid loss is conveniently ignored by Jan's sympathizers when they discuss the implications
> of that stage. The lingering effects of the loss cost LA more time to Jan in the next mountain
> stage, hut his linear recovery over the next few days was plain to see and culminated in Luz.
>
> This is not to take anything away from Jan's victory at Cap Decouverte. He won under very adverse
> conditions that were shared by all. But to take away from that particular TT victory the notion
> that "Jan is now
> 1:30 faster on a 50K TT than Lance" was IMO, fanciful wishful thinking. That Armstrong "only" lost
> about 1:30 in that TT, considering his condition, was in fact remarkable. There was no way that
> that was going to happen again after he recovered in anything like normal temperatures.
>
> That's why I knew after the first 15K time check that Lance had it in the bag. (The first 15k, I
> might add, were not all that adversely effected by the rain) There was no way Jan was going to
> pick up close to a minute over 35K on Lance in normal temperatures. It could be close but not
> decisive for either of them.
>
> Zeno
helped Ullrich's chances for two reasons. First of all, it's easier to gain time on a slower course,
not a faster one. Secondly the rain added a large chance factor by making crashes possible. The
possibility of a crash was by far LA's greatest danger of losing the race.
If you look at the five prevous TDF time trials before this year, Lance won all 5. The first TT this
year started out even and then Lance faded. There was no reason whatsoever to expect that Ulrich
would win by a large margin.
I think both riders are very evenly matched and am fans of both. It's a shame one had to lose.
> Michael wrote:
>
> >> That's faulty - The turns didn't come until the last 10k. Up till then it was straight and
> >> flat and JAN was not dominant.
> >
> >
> > Not quite so faulty. At Cap Decouverte, Ullrich and Armstrong had exactly the same time at the
> > first checkpoint, just as they did today at Nantes. In Cap Decouverte, Ullrich turned on the
> > jets and put a minute and a half on Armstrong in the latter half of the race.
> >
> > That's his modus operandi, but the weather did not permit a full out race for him.
> >
>
> I knew after the first 15K time check that Lance had it in the bag, if he didn't crash.
>
> It is not in his "modus operandi" to lose more than 10 lbs of body weight in a 50k TT like he did
> at Cap Decouverte. That was the result of a week of riding at record breaking 90 degree+(f)
> temperatures, capped by over 100 degrees in the TT, combined with inadequate hydration. That was
> clearly *the* contributing factor why Jan was able to pick up that much time over the last 35K.
> And of course, the effects of that dehydration became more and more pronounced as that TT went on.
>
> This fluid loss is conveniently ignored by Jan's sympathizers when they discuss the implications
> of that stage. The lingering effects of the loss cost LA more time to Jan in the next mountain
> stage, hut his linear recovery over the next few days was plain to see and culminated in Luz.
>
> This is not to take anything away from Jan's victory at Cap Decouverte. He won under very adverse
> conditions that were shared by all. But to take away from that particular TT victory the notion
> that "Jan is now
> 1:30 faster on a 50K TT than Lance" was IMO, fanciful wishful thinking. That Armstrong "only" lost
> about 1:30 in that TT, considering his condition, was in fact remarkable. There was no way that
> that was going to happen again after he recovered in anything like normal temperatures.
>
> That's why I knew after the first 15K time check that Lance had it in the bag. (The first 15k, I
> might add, were not all that adversely effected by the rain) There was no way Jan was going to
> pick up close to a minute over 35K on Lance in normal temperatures. It could be close but not
> decisive for either of them.
>
> Zeno
