What Ftp Does A 170 Lb Man Need To Do A 10 Hour Double Century?

[Weatherby]

From my experiences climbing and riding in the Alps, the climbs are separated by long valleys and that fact that they were racing and averaged around 33 kph should tell you something. They were on closed roads and being handed bottles and still barely kept this pace.

Here is my rule of thumb.....200-250 feet of elevation is equal to around 1 additional mile. Some use 100 feet as a rule of thumb. The Double that you wish to crack 10 hours will take an effort about equal to riding the flats at 23-24 mph all day long, which is why I had originally guestimated 350 watts. That the climbs are gentler helps you provided you can stay on the wheels of generous souls. It is really like a 230 mile flat ride when the effects of elevation are added. This is just my rule of thumb....YMMV depending upon your individual factors....body fat and power levels and weight etc.

How does "my" formula work? Yesterday, I did 127 miles mostly solo with around 8,200 feet of climbing in cold windy conditions and it took me 9:15 including a lunch stop and stops to replace frozen water in my bottles. Without the climbing, a similar ride would have taken me around 7:15-7:30 riding hard with others. To illustrate.....8,200 feet divided by 250 gives me an "additional" 32 miles in effect, so, the ride yesterday was like 160 miles on the flats....for me. Now, I am not sure how to figure in 25F and 20 mph headwinds but you get my point. Don't underestimate the effects of elevation changes. The place to really ride hard is up the hills where speed and power are linearly related, so, you get the most for your efforts. I suppose there are probably calculators online that are better than my personal rule of thumb but in any case, I hope this explanation is helpful. GL and hope you do it...not much more to say.

 

[LivingInThePast]

From my experiences climbing and riding in the Alps, the climbs are separated by long valleys and that fact that they were racing and averaged around 33 kph should tell you something. They were on closed roads and being handed bottles and still barely kept this pace....

As usual your thoughts are always valuable. I've never tried to be that analytical about it (of course neither do I have the case history to draw upon). Clearly this goal is unattainable but the journey has been its own reward. I hope to ride a century this weekend which will give me one data point. Sadly I'll be going into it without a rest day so again, it'll be hard to compare apples to oranges. I believe I could hold 23-24 miles all day on the flats sucking someone's wheel but those hills are going to make that hard. We'll just have to see. I've still got another month's training and I hope to drop down to 160 lbs by D-day. Thanks for your help, it's given me lots to think about.

 

[swampy1970]

"I've done a couple flat 50-milers solo in 2.5 hours without eating much and was pretty well wiped."

"I did the full 200 miles in 1979 which took 14 hours. Bloody painful. Don't wish to relive that experience. Tried again in 1991 and sagged out at the lunch stop after 5 hours. I think I'm in better shape than either of those attempts but I'm also 36 and 24 years older, respectively."

"I believe I could hold 23-24 miles all day on the flats sucking someone's wheel but those hills are going to make that hard."

I picked a few choice quotes from past posts in this thread. If I was a betting guy, I'd think there'd be someone else getting my "will finish under 10 hours" money... That last quote - I think you have as much chance of that as getting sub 11 hours - which is about the same as being greated by Unicorns and Rainbows anchored in pots of gold. Careful though, Davis is a Liberal town, they'd give all your money away for you...

 

[Weatherby]

I picked a few choice quotes from past posts in this thread. If I was a betting guy, I'd think there'd be someone else getting my "will finish under 10 hours" money... That last quote - I think you have as much chance of that as getting sub 11 hours - which is about the same as being greated by Unicorns and Rainbows anchored in pots of gold. Careful though, Davis is a Liberal town, they'd give all your money away for you...

350 watts was my guess....in a 70kg body. To do it in 15 hours....200 watts FTP. That part of the power/speed curve is so much kinder. Good goals are somewhat achievable. If I were the OP, I would have a goal of staying with the lead riders until the first big climb and then riding the rest at a particular power output or HR. Whatever time happens, happens. But breaking 10 hours is quite a stretch. I effectively did it once in a pack of 20 riders with the two motors on the front riding 42-44kph....TEMPO......their legs and scars screamed Cat 1 except they were Dutch.The rest of us only pulled thru and maybe turned the cranks 50 strokes and then the boys in blue with take 5 or more minute pulls.

I did 128 miles (200k Brevet) riding pretty hard a little bit ago and as it only had 4000 feet climbing per the organizer, I did it in 7:30 with stops to fill my own bottles and get brevet cards signed 5 times. Even, so....this was only an 11.5 hour pace extrapolated to an Imperial double. We rode the flats at 22-23 mph and climbed as slow as the slowest rider of the 4 of us. Going out to a 200k today with 30mph winds and I doubt few of the 90-100 riders will break 8 hours and most will do it in 10 hours. I alluded to four local racers doing a hilly double in 10:08....if it was flatish, I am sure these Cat 2 and Cat 3 riders would have cracked 9 hours. If the OP is fixated on a sub 10 hour double, find a flat course with the right group of riders. If I were him or her, I would pick a couple centuries between now and then and see if I could break 4.5 hours.

 

[LivingInThePast]

But breaking 10 hours is quite a stretch. I effectively did it once in a pack of 20 riders with the two motors on the front riding 42-44kph....TEMPO......their legs and scars screamed Cat 1 except they were Dutch.The rest of us only pulled thru and maybe turned the cranks 50 strokes and then the boys in blue would take 5 or more minute pulls.

That's the experience I'm hoping to reproduce. In '90 I was in a group led by two tandem teams and we were running 42-45 kph all the way to Monticello Dam. No one else even had to pull. I never moved that fast on a bicycle in my life. I was seriously under-trained at that time, much worse shape than I am now, and still managed to hit the lunch stop at 5 hours. That's what gives me heart to think it's possible to do this with an FTP in the 290 range. If I can't find such a group again, my whole scheme falls apart. The part I haven't figured out is whereto find a second draft pack led by two Dutch motors after I get out of the hills because there's no way I'm going to hold onto those monsters through the hills.

I could have kept going on that ride in 1990 (I was mistaken about it being in 1991) but my knees were quite sore and my bike had tried to kill me on a fast descent (it went into a hysterical sinusoidal shimmy at 40 mph which I never want to experience again) so I just decided to bag it and be happy with my 5 hour century. Just the week prior I'd gotten into a bad wreck and thought it was a bad time to leave my wife pregnant with our first child.

If, when I'm out on course, it looks like I can't make 10 hours but I can still make it in under 11 I'll probably see it through to the end. If it looks like it'll be a 12+ hour death march then I'll bag it. I have to nurse this old body along for another 40 years.

 

[LivingInThePast]

The Double that you wish to crack 10 hours will take an effort about equal to riding the flats at 23-24 mph all day long, which is why I had originally guestimated 350 watts.

Is that 350 watts riding solo or 350 watts drafting? If the former, what wattage would you expect would be required to draft?

 

[LivingInThePast]

I picked a few choice quotes from past posts in this thread. If I was a betting guy, I'd think there'd be someone else getting my "will finish under 10 hours" money... That last quote - I think you have as much chance of that as getting sub 11 hours - which is about the same as being greated by Unicorns and Rainbows anchored in pots of gold. Careful though, Davis is a Liberal town, they'd give all your money away for you...

Bear in mind, those rides were in January without eating. I've been training hard every day since.

I believe Weatherby was assuming 23-24 mph solo. Drafting gives you about a 30% net reduction in energy expenditure so the necessary speed drops substantially, maybe even to 19mp which I think I could hold all day on the flats riding solo.

 

[swampy1970]

Don't think, know.

Go out and ride for 4 to 5 hours at 20 mph and see how it feels.

Why would you go out and ride for 50 miles without food? If you had the legs to just sit at 25mph tempo then sure but since you're in the ranks of mere mortals then it just makes no sense.

 

[LivingInThePast]

Don't think, know.

Go out and ride for 4 to 5 hours at 20 mph and see how it feels.

Why would you go out and ride for 50 miles without food? If you had the legs to just sit at 25mph tempo then sure but since you're in the ranks of mere mortals then it just makes no sense

I'm pretty sure I can't hold 20 solo all day. But I may be able to hold 19 and I'm sure I can hold 18 and one of those two numbers might be enough for me to squeak by. It all hinges on how much benefit I get from drafting.

Looking at http://mccraw.co.uk/wind-resistance-cycling-speed/suggests to me that if I get a 30% benefit from drafting and I need to put out the power of someone doing 24 solo then I'm going to need to be able to hold 20 solo all day. :-( Oh well.

As for the food, I wasn't worried about running out of gas because I knew I could get home with whatever I had in me. I'm also interested in dropping some weight. If you look back a few pages you'll see Weatherby can go much longer than that without eating.

 

[Nigel Doyle]

So how's the training going? You should be doing a big ride every weekend now e.g. 160 - 200km and 4 rides / workouts on 3 days of the week with the 4th on the weekend. That then allows 2 days of rest. That then would answer some of your questions re avg speed solo plus allow you to get your nutrition plan nailed.

Now if this was me doing a double century I would be planning on riding the whole thing as part of a bunch i.e. drafting and riding mid range of my Zone 3 heart rate. For me that would be around 30 - 32 k/ph. My last century (actually 149km) I drafted the whole way / rode in a paceline and averaged 37.3 km/h and did it in 4 hours flat. My heart rate was high zone 3 and zone 4 for most of the ride. No way would I have been able to maintain this pace for another lap. My FTP at the time in January 2015 was about 260. I'm now on 278.

Good luck. Rather you than me.

 

[swampy1970]

I'm pretty sure I can't hold 20 solo all day. But I may be able to hold 19 and I'm sure I can hold 18 and one of those two numbers might be enough for me to squeak by. It all hinges on how much benefit I get from drafting.

Looking at http://mccraw.co.uk/wind-resistance-cycling-speed/suggests to me that if I get a 30% benefit from drafting and I need to put out the power of someone doing 24 solo then I'm going to need to be able to hold 20 solo all day. :-( Oh well.

As for the food, I wasn't worried about running out of gas because I knew I could get home with whatever I had in me. I'm also interested in dropping some weight. If you look back a few pages you'll see Weatherby can go much longer than that without eating.

You need to actually go out and see if you can hold 19 or 20mph for hours at a time.

Going out and riding for a few hours and not eating really doesn't aid in losing weight fast. Eating properly and riding more does.

 

[An old Guy]

I'm pretty sure I can't hold 20 solo all day. But I may be able to hold 19 and I'm sure I can hold 18 and one of those two numbers might be enough for me to squeak by. It all hinges on how much benefit I get from drafting.

If 10 hours is all day, I don't think you can hold 18mph all day.

5 minutes to fill your water bottles and grab some food every couple hours really knocks down the average. And 5 minutes is a quick stop for most.

Time on the internet does not improve one's condition.

 

[LivingInThePast]

So how's the training going? You should be doing a big ride every weekend now e.g. 160 - 200km and 4 rides / workouts on 3 days of the week with the 4th on the weekend. That then allows 2 days of rest. That then would answer some of your questions re avg speed solo plus allow you to get your nutrition plan nailed.

Now if this was me doing a double century I would be planning on riding the whole thing as part of a bunch i.e. drafting and riding mid range of my Zone 3 heart rate. For me that would be around 30 - 32 k/ph. My last century (actually 149km) I drafted the whole way / rode in a paceline and averaged 37.3 km/h and did it in 4 hours flat. My heart rate was high zone 3 and zone 4 for most of the ride. No way would I have been able to maintain this pace for another lap. My FTP at the time in January 2015 was about 260. I'm now on 278.

Nigel,

I'm guessing my FTP is around 274 but I'm probably heavier than you (168 now). Do you think you could have done "another lap" if your paceline was averaging 33 km/h instead of 37.3? Did that 4 hour time include stops???

What 'Zone 3' definition are you using? This is what TrainerRoad uses:


Heart Rate Zone

Percent of LTHR

Active Recovery

<68% LTHR

Endurance

68% to 83%

Tempo

83% to 94%

Sweet Spot

94% to 95%

Threshold

95% to 105%

VO2Max

105% to 220 BPM

 

[Nigel Doyle]

re 33k/ph and another lap. Maybe, it would have been tough. This was optimal conditions with virtually no wind. I'm 182cm tall / 6ft and 74kg / 163 lbs. The 4 hours was non stop. I was a few kg's heavier when I did the race and FTP was about 260. I've moved into a more intensive training schedule since then with high intensity interval training and a lot less miles. Prior to the 149km race I was doing 300 - 400 km per week with only one modest zone 4 interval session during the week.

Re Heart Rate zones. I use:

Zone 3: 84 - 94% of LTHR

Zone 3+: 95 - 98% of LTHR

I did a zone 3+ ride last Sunday and hovered between high zone 3+ and low zone 4 for just over 2 hours. Pretty comfortable but no way could I maintain that solo doing a double century. Even riding in a bunch I would want to be zone 3 only for most of it and being rarely careful on hills not to overcook it.

On Trainerroad I go by power and use power profiles for the video workouts or custom profiles that I have made to replicate outdoor workouts. My heart rate zones are a few beats lower inside on a trainer than outside.

By now with your training hopefully well under way you should know how you hard you can go for 5 - 6 hours. This ride is going to take you 9.5 hours +.

Are you doing any group riding practice? I prefer training alone but prior to any endurance race I'll try to do a few for practice.

What was your training for the last week?

Are you doing any core / off the bike work? Strengthening your core would help this ride a lot. Not necessarily to go faster but to hold it together without fatiguing so much. Your back, neck and arms are going to take a beating.

 

[LivingInThePast]

re 33k/ph and another lap. Maybe, it would have been tough. This was optimal conditions with virtually no wind. I'm 182cm tall / 6ft and 74kg / 163 lbs. The 4 hours was non stop. I was a few kg's heavier when I did the race and FTP was about 260. I've moved into a more intensive training schedule since then with high intensity interval training and a lot less miles. Prior to the 149km race I was doing 300 - 400 km per week with only one modest zone 4 interval session during the week.

Re Heart Rate zones. I use:

Zone 3: 84 - 94% of LTHR

Zone 3+: 95 - 98% of LTHR

I did a zone 3+ ride last Sunday and hovered between high zone 3+ and low zone 4 for just over 2 hours. Pretty comfortable but no way could I maintain that solo doing a double century. Even riding in a bunch I would want to be zone 3 only for most of it and being rarely careful on hills not to overcook it.

On Trainerroad I go by power and use power profiles for the video workouts or custom profiles that I have made to replicate outdoor workouts. My heart rate zones are a few beats lower inside on a trainer than outside.

By now with your training hopefully well under way you should know how you hard you can go for 5 - 6 hours. This ride is going to take you 9.5 hours +.

Are you doing any group riding practice? I prefer training alone but prior to any endurance race I'll try to do a few for practice.

What was your training for the last week?

Are you doing any core / off the bike work? Strengthening your core would help this ride a lot. Not necessarily to go faster but to hold it together without fatiguing so much. Your back, neck and arms are going to take a beating.

I wish I had good data for a 5-6 hour ride but I don't. I haven't been doing organized rides so I basically have been downloading routes from the web and following the turn-by-turn instructions. I waste a lot of time in traffic and getting bad directions from the navigation software, and traversing miles of gravel which I expected to be paved, or nursing painful feet. I did a 55-miler last weekend which was nearly half dirt/gravel. When I was on pavement toward the end I was holding 22-23 mph solo but that was only for 1-2 hours at most.

I'm probably logging around 10 hours a week but it's 90% on my Wahoo Kickr with TrainerRoad. I don't prefer training alone, but the trainer works better with my schedule. I've been following their Sweet Spot II High Volume plan and I'm in the 5th week. I'm finally getting to watch Star Trek TNG which I've never seen before (who said "Time on the internet does not improve one's condition."? - Ha!)

I don't know what to do about my neck. That's the weakest link and the thing that makes me want to stop before all else. That's what's driving me to want to get this over with as fast as possible. Any suggestions? I've gone so far as to contrive a heads-up display using a helmet cam and a vuzix display but I was stopped by the cost.

Why did you switch to the higher intensity lower mileage training regimen? I'm getting a lot of advice to start upping my mileage but I'm not sure whether that's a better plan than sticking with TR's regimen or not. I will say that the longer rides do shake out the problems like sore sit bones, foot pain (bad cleat placement and and poor arch support), too small bike (the Century I rode last month was on a 46 cm bike I bought from my son as a sympathy gesture - turns out I needed a 56).

 

[Nigel Doyle]

I'm doing the Cyclo 90 Master's program

I've been following this guy for a while on Youtube and his podcasts and thought now that I'm heading into my off season I have nothing to lose. What he says about high intensity training makes a lot of sense and there's one or two high intensity workouts per week in addition to moderate intensity workouts / rides and one day of off the bike core training. Sure if you're going to be doing a double century you need to be doing some serious miles and as you've figured out by increasing your FTP you'll be able to ride faster and longer at a lower heart rate / with less effort. This guy's marketing is way over the top but the training works. My FTP has increased along with getting fitter plus I'm lighter as well.

Today for example his program had me doing off the bike core training using a kettlebell and dumbbells plus some yoga type exercises for an hour. I supplemented this with half an hour of stretching exercises and foam roller work for tight muscles. Tomorrow's workout is a 75 minute ride with short high load intervals followed by an hour at zone 2. In the past I would have gone out for 2 hours with no goal or plan of what I should be doing other than some of my rides needed to be kinda hard.

Let's say you increase your FTP / Fitness and knock off an hour from your finish time and do the ride in 10 hours rather than 11. Even at 9 hours, if you've got neck issues you're going to have them well before you've finished. Off the bike core training is what you need to help with this.

I doubt that my butt could withstand a double century. I'd need to be doing a big ride of 7-8 hours a week to work up to doing the double. Fitnesswise I could do one riding at zone 3 but my butt would be damn sore. This distance just does nothing for me.

I've just looked at the Sweet Spot Base - High Volume II plan on Trainerroad. Yeah maybe except the long weekend ride needs to be longer or you add an hour to the duration each time so that by the week before your double century you're up to doing say 8 hours.

Good luck. Keep us posted how it turns out.

 

[swampy1970]

A 10 hour ride may be possible this year. Hot off the press, well email from the organizers:

Davis Double Riders,

With the ride less than one month away, we have to announce a course modification. The short version is that, well, the course will be shorter this year. Twelve miles shorter, to be exact, for a total of 188 miles.

The distance is still well within California Triple Crown standards, and the 2015 Davis Double counts as a full double toward fulfilling your CTC credit.

Important: For those of you who downloaded a map or que sheet from the DBC website or the Ride With GPS map website, the instructions you have are obsolete and incorrect. Please revisit the map site (http://ridewithgps.com/routes/6786121) to download the updated map and que sheet. All riders will be given a printed map and cue sheet when they check in for the ride.

For those who are interested in the details . . .

For this year, we were planning to take the riders up along the west shore of Lake Berryessa on the Knoxville Berryessa Road to Pope Valley Road. As it turns out, that area is under federal jurisdiction. Apparently, the feds found $8 million to put into road repair there, and the road is (or soon will be) torn up at least through Memorial Day.

We did not learn from Napa County until April 15 that it was not issuing any permits on Knoxville Berryessa Road. This late notice came to us despite the fact that we’ve had a permit application on file with Napa County since late January. The County representative said they were surprised by the repaving project as well.

The good news is that the road should be really nice for the Knoxville Double, and for the Davis Double next year if we move to that route. The bad news is that for this year, we had to take our route back to the route we’ve been using (Lower Chiles Road). We lost a number of milesin doing so, and also have fewer miles between rest stops 1 and 2 than we have had in recent years. As a result, the Davis Double will be short this year: 188 miles.

 

[quenya]

Chiming in a little late here. I'm 68 and change kilos with a pretty solid ftp ~4.9 w/kg. On my TT rig and really trying maybe I could do a 10 hour effort on the shortened version but no guarantee. If I'm waiting for someone on the climbs, no way.

I suppose you might get lucky and find a couple tandems and a handful of cat 2 level ftps who will let you sit in but that's not a particularly good strategy.

In a one on one setting you'd struggle to hold someone with my power's wheel, even in a group if they wanted to push it on a climb and you'd lose minutes...

 

[LivingInThePast]

You guys are so mean to me!! First Swampy throws me one end of a lifeline and then quenya ties the other end to an anchor and kicks it off the boat!

If anyone's looking for me I'll be in the garden eating worms.

 

[quenya]

Dude, please don't think we're being mean. If I'd said 235 W should be fine... that would have been mean.

Realistic expectations.