What is the chance of a real bicyle race to night?



T

Terryc

Guest
...instead of the usual bicycle parade?

It isn't like Kontour as a lucky first timer is owed any respect and it
is highly unlikely that Discovery could resist using their team power to
go 1-2.

Or does Cadel have a weak team and he doesn't have an icecube in hell 's
chance of getting a higher position?

As I understand it, Discovery will mop up all the time bonuses with
minor riders so Cadel doesn't have a chance.
 
Terryc said:
...instead of the usual bicycle parade?

It isn't like Kontour as a lucky first timer is owed any respect and it
is highly unlikely that Discovery could resist using their team power to
go 1-2.

Or does Cadel have a weak team and he doesn't have an icecube in hell 's
chance of getting a higher position?

As I understand it, Discovery will mop up all the time bonuses with
minor riders so Cadel doesn't have a chance.
Lotto will be trying to push Cadel up, the chances are it won't happen but you never know. I suspect he is just a bit too far back, but well see :).

A Discovery 1-2 is quite possible, realistically it's more likely than Cadel finishing first. I'd put my money on some real racing though. With such small gaps it's hard to see a parade.
 
On Jul 29, 5:32 pm, SomeGuy <SomeGuy.2uh...@no-
mx.forums.cyclingforums.com> wrote:
> Terryc Wrote:> ...instead of the usual bicycle parade?
>
> > It isn't like Kontour as a lucky first timer is owed any respect and it
> > is highly unlikely that Discovery could resist using their team power
> > to
> > go 1-2.

>
> > Or does Cadel have a weak team and he doesn't have an icecube in hell
> > 's
> > chance of getting a higher position?

>
> > As I understand it, Discovery will mop up all the time bonuses with
> > minor riders so Cadel doesn't have a chance.

>
> Lotto will be trying to push Cadel up, the chances are it won't happen
> but you never know. I suspect he is just a bit too far back, but well
> see :).


Unless one of them crashes, nothing will change tonight.
Notwithstanding the tradition of the tour, which both teams are fully
aware of, it would be a stalemate anyway. Cadel only needs to mark
Leipeimer, and neither will feature in the big bonuses at the finish
(they're not sprinters ...). Bruniell's not stupid, he won't risk
Contador's (lucky?!) win and the team win. It's money in the bank vs
nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.
 
Bleve said:
It's money in the bank vs
nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.

See this is what sh&ts about this sport sometimes, this is the time when they should be going for it, this Tour de France, has been nothing but normal and traditional. Cadels team has done basically nothing for him through the mountain stages, they should put everything on the line and push it to the limit and see what happens, who knows, there could easily be a crash if the pace heats up, someone could break, who knows.... freakin go for it... make it a goddam race.
 
On Jul 29, 8:01 pm, MikeyOz <MikeyOz.2uh...@no-
mx.forums.cyclingforums.com> wrote:
> Bleve Wrote:
>
> > It's money in the bank vs
> > nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
> > anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
> > 2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.

>
> See this is what sh&ts about this sport sometimes, this is the time
> when they should be going for it, this Tour de France, has been nothing
> but normal and traditional. Cadels team has done basically nothing for
> him through the mountain stages,



******** Mikey, you just didn't see it because SBS only show the last
bits. You don't see Cadel's team supporting him through all the flat
stages, the crosswinds, the early hills etc. All you see is the last
climbs where most of the domestiques have been dropped and it's up to
the GC riders to do their jobs. Your description of the team that
worked for Cadel is insulting to the riders who have blown themselves
to bits to help him, many of whom were there to serve two masters
(remember Robbie McEwen? that sprinter guy who's won 12 stages and two
green jerseys?). If you'd ever ridden (or really paid attention) in
any sort of tactical team context, you'd know just how insulting what
you have written above is to the riders who have worked for Cadel.

Cadel went for it yesterday and in the hills. Today, for GC, the race
is over. GC riders aim to survive the flat stages because that's all
that can be done on them. Did you see what happened to Moreau when
there was a crosswind and his team didn't react fast enough? Did you
see what happened to Mayo back in '05 on the cobbles?

> they should put everything on the line
> and push it to the limit and see what happens, who knows, there could
> easily be a crash if the pace heats up, someone could break, who
> knows.... freakin go for it... make it a goddam race.


It's a flat stage. Breaks only get away on flat stages when the other
teams aren't interested in chasing. Race tactics 101. It's *not* like
Triathalon.
 
"Bleve" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Jul 29, 5:32 pm, SomeGuy <SomeGuy.2uh...@no-
> mx.forums.cyclingforums.com> wrote:
>> Terryc Wrote:> ...instead of the usual bicycle parade?
>>
>> > It isn't like Kontour as a lucky first timer is owed any respect and it
>> > is highly unlikely that Discovery could resist using their team power
>> > to
>> > go 1-2.

>>
>> > Or does Cadel have a weak team and he doesn't have an icecube in hell
>> > 's
>> > chance of getting a higher position?

>>
>> > As I understand it, Discovery will mop up all the time bonuses with
>> > minor riders so Cadel doesn't have a chance.

>>
>> Lotto will be trying to push Cadel up, the chances are it won't happen
>> but you never know. I suspect he is just a bit too far back, but well
>> see :).

>
> Unless one of them crashes, nothing will change tonight.
> Notwithstanding the tradition of the tour, which both teams are fully
> aware of, it would be a stalemate anyway. Cadel only needs to mark
> Leipeimer, and neither will feature in the big bonuses at the finish
> (they're not sprinters ...). Bruniell's not stupid, he won't risk
> Contador's (lucky?!) win and the team win. It's money in the bank vs
> nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
> anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
> 2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.
>


Out of interest, what are the rules / tradition concerning someone crashing
on the final stage. I know that riders in the past have waited for guys who
crashed or flatted (pretty sure Lance waited for Jan on a climb a few years
ago then blew him away once he caught up). If say Contador flatted or
crashed mid stage would it be considered poor form for Cadel and his team to
put the hammer down and try to gain back the 23 seconds?? (I assume that it
would be but reckon its sorta funny given that it would be OK to do it in
one of the early stages)

Just heard on the channel 9 news update (wife watching TV in other room) the
following pearl of wisdom: "Cadel Evans is carrying the hopes of the nation
as he attempts to win the TDF later tonight..." - obviously channel nine are
all over what will happen in the final stage!!!! My guess is that it will
be a cruisy stage and then the sprinters will have a crack at the end.

Gags
 
Gags said:
"Bleve" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Jul 29, 5:32 pm, SomeGuy <SomeGuy.2uh...@no-
> mx.forums.cyclingforums.com> wrote:
>> Terryc Wrote:> ...instead of the usual bicycle parade?
>>
>> > It isn't like Kontour as a lucky first timer is owed any respect and it
>> > is highly unlikely that Discovery could resist using their team power
>> > to
>> > go 1-2.

>>
>> > Or does Cadel have a weak team and he doesn't have an icecube in hell
>> > 's
>> > chance of getting a higher position?

>>
>> > As I understand it, Discovery will mop up all the time bonuses with
>> > minor riders so Cadel doesn't have a chance.

>>
>> Lotto will be trying to push Cadel up, the chances are it won't happen
>> but you never know. I suspect he is just a bit too far back, but well
>> see :).

>
> Unless one of them crashes, nothing will change tonight.
> Notwithstanding the tradition of the tour, which both teams are fully
> aware of, it would be a stalemate anyway. Cadel only needs to mark
> Leipeimer, and neither will feature in the big bonuses at the finish
> (they're not sprinters ...). Bruniell's not stupid, he won't risk
> Contador's (lucky?!) win and the team win. It's money in the bank vs
> nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
> anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
> 2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.
>


Out of interest, what are the rules / tradition concerning someone crashing
on the final stage. I know that riders in the past have waited for guys who
crashed or flatted (pretty sure Lance waited for Jan on a climb a few years
ago then blew him away once he caught up). If say Contador flatted or
crashed mid stage would it be considered poor form for Cadel and his team to
put the hammer down and try to gain back the 23 seconds?? (I assume that it
would be but reckon its sorta funny given that it would be OK to do it in
one of the early stages)

Just heard on the channel 9 news update (wife watching TV in other room) the
following pearl of wisdom: "Cadel Evans is carrying the hopes of the nation
as he attempts to win the TDF later tonight..." - obviously channel nine are
all over what will happen in the final stage!!!! My guess is that it will
be a cruisy stage and then the sprinters will have a crack at the end.

Gags
Churnelnoin actually mentioned cycling in a positive way but also in an ignorant of cycling's finer points way, typical of most commentators who follow the ballsie games (not in tough context mind you more like undeveloped immature cajones).

I doubt there will be any change tonight, Carl is right... if there is a change it will be because of what one of the other teams may have done which came unstuck and helped Cadel or Levi as a consequence...

At the mo it is a liesurely ride past the Chateaux and Villages time for bart Simpson masks to be worn (Charlie Wegelius) and Contador to talk to Lance at the back... ( no champagne tho)

Its been a good month to stay up and watch this unfold, Ive enjoyed it...the eyes have been heavy a bit, but gee, three cheers for nachos, popcorn , pinot noir and muscat....

we come back in 08 and watch the titanic struggle with clean riders from the start ( I hope)

vive le tour
 
On 2007-07-29, Gags (aka Bruce)
was almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea:
> Out of interest, what are the rules / tradition concerning someone crashing
> on the final stage. I know that riders in the past have waited for guys who
> crashed or flatted (pretty sure Lance waited for Jan on a climb a few years
> ago then blew him away once he caught up). If say Contador flatted or
> crashed mid stage would it be considered poor form for Cadel and his team to
> put the hammer down and try to gain back the 23 seconds??


You forgot to add "I wish to know for a school project."

Yes Gags, feel perfectly free to throw a pump into the spokes of
Contador.

--
TimC
Perl 6 will give you the big knob. -- Larry Wall
 
MikeyOz wrote:
> Bleve Wrote:
>
>>It's money in the bank vs
>>nothing significant given that Discovery has just about everything
>>anyway (yellow, white, teams, two riders on the podium). Cadel came
>>2nd, be happy about it. It's an awesome result.

>
>
> See this is what sh&ts about this sport sometimes, this is the time
> when they should be going for it, this Tour de France, has been nothing
> but normal and traditional.


Yep, tonight is the real Tour de Farce and I have to watch it cos the
missus wants to watch it rather than one of the movies. It is **** boring.

Sad when you find yourself wishing for another dog, so that something
might actually happen.

why bother writing to complain about the ABC's inaccurate waffle, when
it is such a farce.
 
On 2007-07-29, rooman (aka Bruce)
was almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea:
> At the mo it is a liesurely ride past the Chateaux and Villages time
> for bart Simpson masks to be worn (Charlie Wegelius) and Contador to
> talk to Lance at the back... ( no champagne tho)


Dammit, the clouds have just disappeared for a moment, and I've got to
leave the observer's tea room and open the darned dome. Rargh.

--
TimC
vi is [[13~^[[15~^[[15~^[[19~^[[18~^ a
muk[^[[29~^[[34~^[[26~^[[32~^ch better editor than this emacs. I know
I^[[14~'ll get flamed for this but the truth has to be
said. ^[[D^[[D^[[D^[[D ^[[D^[^[[D^[[D^[[B^
exit ^X^C quit :x :wq dang it :w:w:w :x ^C^C^Z^D
-- Jesper Lauridsen <[email protected]> from alt.religion.emacs
 
Bleve said:
******** Mikey, you just didn't see it because SBS only show the last bits. You don't see Cadel's team supporting him through all the flat
stages, the crosswinds, the early hills etc.you'd know just how insulting what
you have written above is to the riders who have worked for Cadel.

O f&*k off Carl, insulting give me a break like anybody on those teams give a flying kangaroo what I say. I know whats going on, it's not rocket science its professional cycling. I know they have worked hard for Cadel, however, where was his team in the mountains when Boogerd was leading Rasmussen up the hill climbs, thats what he needed. McEwen was gone early into the Tour, hopefully next year he either rides for a team that wants a GC winner and not try to half hope it by going for a Sprint winner or fluke a GC winner.

Bleve said:
It's a flat stage. Breaks only get away on flat stages when the other teams aren't interested in chasing. Race tactics 101. It's *not* like
Triathalon.
Oh owww.. physically wounded I am, woo is me and a jaded reference to Triathlon and that fact I don't know sh&t about racing and you know everything there is.

Remember opinions are like arsholes...... yours is just one of many like mine :)
 
MikeyOz wrote:
> Bleve Wrote:


>> ******** Mikey, you just didn't see it because SBS only show the last
>> bits. You don't see Cadel's team supporting him through all the flat
>> stages, the crosswinds, the early hills etc.you'd know just how
>> insulting what
>> you have written above is to the riders who have worked for Cadel.


> Oh owww.. physically wounded I am, woo is me and a jaded reference to
> Triathlon and that fact I don't know sh&t about racing and you know
> everything there is.
>
> Remember opinions are like arsholes...... yours is just one of many
> like mine :)


Yes, but his opinion makes sense, unlike yours. :)

Theo
 
rooman wrote:

> we come back in 08 and watch the titanic struggle with clean riders
> from the start ( I hope)


They found 2 out of 180 (20x9?)
That means 98% are clean.

The third was sacked by his team for lying, ducking and weaving.

Unless they suddenly annouce another dozen or more have been caught,
that is pretty clean to me.

What other sport comes that clean?
 
Terryc said:
rooman wrote:

> we come back in 08 and watch the titanic struggle with clean riders
> from the start ( I hope)


They found 2 out of 180 (20x9?)
That means 98% are clean.

The third was sacked by his team for lying,
Unless they suddenly annouce another dozen or more have been caught,
that is pretty clean to me.

What other sport comes that clean?
"found" being the operative word.... 2% is 2% too many ... like being a bit pregant.

The effect that 2% had on the outcome of the stages though is what matters.

Rassmussen committed a "drugs" offence, in his team's opinion and his team took the initiative, it would have been an issue IMO as the effect of him lying about his whereabouts supports the "warnings" for not giving his diary in to UCI testers on time. Rassmussen was ducking and weaving over his whereabouts related closely to his diary and missing drug tests and warnings..not about him visiting his sick grandma, so his is drug related too!

And Rassmussen having the warnings for missing OOC tests and not being able to be "found" (there's that word again), was building and raising that other word "" suspicion" of using drugs, which ASO relies upon to remove riders from the Tour. ASO were scathing of the UCI over Rassmussen in the end. Thay ask why werent they told he had a cloud of suspicion building into a storm?.

We know from Cadel's statements what effect Rassmussen had on him and his recovery from the attacks he had to fend off when Rasmussen and Contador worked against him.

Even Vinokourov was a serious GC threat in the event. He cost cadel a TT stage win cermeony. Consider what that would have done to Cadel's motivation and status in the peleton, especially the Discovery reaction.

..The positive tests also meant that innocent riders in those +ve rider's teams had to leave the tour, it forced Klóden out, who was well placed on GC ( and he and others might now end their own careers as well).
How do you think the Cofidis and Astana riders are feeling?.
Although his team largely continued, how is Michael Boogerd feeling these days?...He busted his heart out for Rassmussen, and got S%!t for Suger.
IMO Chicken should never have started the event.

I see where you are coming from, and sure it wasnt a dozen riders tossed out for drugs, but it was more than a dozen who suffered the effect of those removed drug doping riders.

Like deaths on roads for culpable driving, nothing is acceptable beyond zero tolerance.

and speaking of % of "road" users on drugs check this out :
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22138184-24331,00.html
 
MikeyOz said:
O f&*k off Carl, insulting give me a break like anybody on those teams give a flying kangaroo what I say. I know whats going on, it's not rocket science its professional cycling. I know they have worked hard for Cadel, however, where was his team in the mountains when Boogerd was leading Rasmussen up the hill climbs, thats what he needed. McEwen was gone early into the Tour, hopefully next year he either rides for a team that wants a GC winner and not try to half hope it by going for a Sprint winner or fluke a GC winner.
Wasn't Horner with Evans on most of the mountain stages, doing all sorts of domestiquey things? Sure he fell off at the very end when the attacks started going crazy, but by that time usually it was Rasmussen's and Contador's accellerations that had just about everyone falling off, including most of their own teammates, and a lot of other "contenders" - Valve, Sastre, Kloden, Pereiro. Even Leipheimer was dropped at times, and take a look where he finished.

Ash
 
rooman wrote:

> I see where you are coming from, and sure it wasnt a dozen riders
> tossed out for drugs, but it was more than a dozen who suffered the
> effect of those removed drug doping riders.
>
> Like deaths on roads for culpable driving, nothing is acceptable beyond
> zero tolerance.


Wish it were so.


So, overall, there is probably a very good case for lifetime ban for
illegal/unchecked drug taking.

and maybe a few years retirement forthe team?
 
TimC said:
On 2007-07-29, rooman (aka Bruce)
was almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea:
> At the mo it is a liesurely ride past the Chateaux and Villages time
> for bart Simpson masks to be worn (Charlie Wegelius) and Contador to
> talk to Lance at the back... ( no champagne tho)


Dammit, the clouds have just disappeared for a moment, and I've got to
leave the observer's tea room and open the darned dome. Rargh.

--
TimC
vi is [[13~^[[15~^[[15~^[[19~^[[18~^ a
muk[^[[29~^[[34~^[[26~^[[32~^ch better editor than this emacs. I know
I^[[14~'ll get flamed for this but the truth has to be
said. ^[[D^[[D^[[D^[[D ^[[D^[^[[D^[[D^[[B^
exit ^X^C quit :x :wq dang it :w:w:w :x ^C^C^Z^D
-- Jesper Lauridsen <[email protected]> from alt.religion.emacs
this guy is another one Tim...is there a breeding programme ?
 
a5hi5m said:
Wasn't Horner with Evans on most of the mountain stages, doing all sorts of domestiquey things?

Yep.... and on that important stage when Boogerd was pushing the pace, Horner was tucked nicely in behind Evans, I watched that stage and when he needed some help really didn't have any. But anyway..... thats the team he was in, it was interesting his comment about how other teams should now be aware of his ability to ride this race when interviewed after the race was finished. Be surprised to see him at Lotto next year.
 

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