What JU should do to try and win TdF 06



musette

New Member
Aug 29, 2003
2,434
0
0
LA has made the observation many times, and it is generally known, that JU needs to improve his first 10 days of the Tour. In Cycle Sport, LA notes:

"Jan is a special adversary. All these years, I've been serious when I said he was most dangerous rival. I'm convinced he will win the Tour again, and not only once. For that he only has to improve his condition a little. When you watch him in the second half of the Tour, you are watching a Tour winner. He climbs well, but the first 10 days always pose a problem for him," Armstrong said."

Particularly crucial is that JU not lose time to key rivals during the first mountain stage.
 
In order to win, JU needs to try not to lose time.

Hmm. If I follow the same strategy, I might win the Tour!
 
Jan Ullrich will be under more pressure in the TDF 2006, more than any time since 2000.

I believe that the expectation levels that he ought to win the 2006 TDF will be very very high.

If he manages to win the 2006 TDF, it will take a superb performance on his part.

If he had never won the TDF in 1997, I would probably favour him to win in 2006 more, given what has transpired since 1999.

But Basso, Valverde, Cunego & Co don't fear JU and this will make it harder for him to win in 2006.
 
Next years tour will be interesting to say the least. I think for JU to win he has to be on form for the prologue and take time out of the climbers like Basso, Cunego, Valverde. With Mic Rogers to help boost the team time trial T-Mobile should be able to win this stage, though CSC will give them a tough challenge if this year is anything to go by. Then its a case of staying with the climbers for as long as possible in the mountains to keep time losses to a minimum.

I think JU can win next years tour, but so could Basso, Valverde, Cunego etc. Or even LA if he makes a suprise comeback to ******** the French. Should be a nice tight race.
 
I'm rooting for JU. The Kaisaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

He needs more discipline in the 'off season' and not gain so much weight. He always does that mad dash to lose a few extra pounds a month before the Tour.
 
Provided he doesn't crash and provided another drug cheat doesn't come along, he should win. But i'm more than a little concerned with Basso's relationship with Mr 60%. ;)
 
JU should consider communicating that he expects his domestiques to all ride for him in 2006. For example, team management and JU should communicate to reinforce to M Rogers that he is to support JU 100%, and that Rogers will be given chances in later editions of the race, but not this one.

Nobody should waste their energies on winning stages except for JU (except that everybody should try and do their best in the prologue, to set up being last on the TTT).

They should practice as a group the TTT. Try out different configurations of who goes after whom in the TTT line. Bruyneel experimented with various formations before he came up with the 04/05 formation (the same, but subbing Popo and Savoldelli for Eki and Landis, respectively).

TM should think about how they will use their various domestiques in the mountains (e.g., sequence of boosting JU, if that becomes relevant during a stage).

JU should consider wind tunnel testing. Sure, he's very good in ITT. But who knows how much better he could be if he got tested?
 
musette said:
JU should consider communicating that he expects his domestiques to all ride for him in 2006. For example, team management and JU should communicate to reinforce to M Rogers that he is to support JU 100%, and that Rogers will be given chances in later editions of the race, but not this one.

Nobody should waste their energies on winning stages except for JU (except that everybody should try and do their best in the prologue, to set up being last on the TTT).

They should practice as a group the TTT. Try out different configurations of who goes after whom in the TTT line. Bruyneel experimented with various formations before he came up with the 04/05 formation (the same, but subbing Popo and Savoldelli for Eki and Landis, respectively).

TM should think about how they will use their various domestiques in the mountains (e.g., sequence of boosting JU, if that becomes relevant during a stage).

JU should consider wind tunnel testing. Sure, he's very good in ITT. But who knows how much better he could be if he got tested?


I hear what you're saying - except.

In the case of Armstrong - he owned his team. His financial input gave him extra impetus to demand and expect his team (employees ?) to work for him
and to concentrate solely on one race per year.

T Mobile employs Ullrich and all the rest of the riders.
So Ullrich doesn't have the same leverage that Armstrong could exercise.
In addition, TM do not regard the TDF as the be-all and end-all as far as a season goes.

As Eldtrack said elsewhere - different priorities each
 
JU has a lot of leverage now, because (1) Godefroot is gone and Kummer has been conveniently sidelined (although with nice cosmetics), (2) Pavenage is going to be in charge of the Tour coordination with Jan, (3) Olaf Ludwig is not going to go against JU, (4) TM will be subject to a lot of pressure from the German press and the German public if JU does not win because they failed to adopt a recommendation JU had, and (5) TM knows that 06 is the last year of JU's contract, and, from the perspective of the sponsor and marketing, it would be bad if JU were to hop over to, say, Discovery for his final attempt at the Tour in 07. That would not be incompatible with Popo still being seasoned by Bruyneel for team leadership in 08 (when Popo will still be relatively young).

Of course, with JU's leverage come greater expectations in terms of JU winning the Tour.

In the past, JU has not demanded this and there were other obstacles (e.g., Zabel's participation, Godefroot). Now, JU must be stronger as a leader and demand that everybody do what he believes will be best for him to win the Tour. If TM wants him to win the Tour, they will have to give him nothing less. And JU himself will have to be more demanding of his domestiques. Tell them to shape up if they do not seem to be doing what is expected of them. Make them understand they will be evaluated by how helpful they are to him, instead of their individual achievements at the Tour.
 
I still think that you're trying to apply a USPS approach to a different model.

The fact of the matter is that Ullrich's leverage in his team is limited - compared to Armstrong.
Ullrich cannot decide bonus's for his team unlike Armstrong for example.

OK with the change in management, there might well be an opportunity to get the team more focussed but then the team and it's management are beholden to TM the company.
TM are massive sponsors of sports events and teams : in soccer alone they're huge and they want to see their brand sport as widely as possible.
TM's corporate view would be to have uniform coverage through good results throughout the season in cycling, rather than putting all eggs in to one basket (TDF).
This makes sense in a corporate sense.
 
You forget that it is not only LA's control over his domestiques' financial compensation that makes the team so cohesive -- it is also Bruyneel and LA picking domestiques with the very idea of somebody who would devote themselves wholeheartedly and willingly to LA's cause of winning the maillot jaune. As mentioned in the thread on whose team is better, Bruyneel sees personality (i.e., loyalty, willingness to be team players) as very important in recruiting.

I'm not sure TM has traditionally taken that approach. :p
 
Ullrich has to show some aggression and attack. A good, dedicated, loyal team is important, but at the end of the day, you have to be in the front to win.
 
spacelord said:
Ullrich has to show some aggression and attack. A good, dedicated, loyal team is important, but at the end of the day, you have to be in the front to win.
Next tour is gonna be an open tour like the ones after Indurain. Jan could win the tour but there are many riders who can: Cunego, Valverde, Basso, Rujano and Menchov (yes Menchov! He won`t be alone like during this years Vuelta, he will be supported by Rasmussen, Boogerd, Thomas Dekker, Pieter Weening, Rabobank has a pretty strong team next year), maybe Popovych or Savoldelli...

The peleton will be very chaotic, they won`t accept a team to rule, there will be many attacks, it`s gonna be a great tour!
 
I think we can be agreed that the 2006 TDF should be a great tour - given that the race ought to be more open.

In relation to the contenders, I think Menchov could be a contender, as are Cunego, Basso, Valverde, Ullrich, Vino.

My wish for 2006 in it's totality is that we will have riders who race more and specialise less.
Since 1999, the so called grand champions have never delivered a la Indurain, Merckx, Hinault.

The road men (Bettini, Freire, Petacchi, Zabel) for my money are more worthy riders cause they race all season and try to win all season.

Ullrich Armstrong Heras Beloki Mayo - they don't cut the muster for me.
 
limerickman said:
I think we can be agreed that the 2006 TDF should be a great tour - given that the race ought to be more open.

In relation to the contenders, I think Menchov could be a contender, as are Cunego, Basso, Valverde, Ullrich, Vino.

My wish for 2006 in it's totality is that we will have riders who race more and specialise less.
Since 1999, the so called grand champions have never delivered a la Indurain, Merckx, Hinault.

The road men (Bettini, Freire, Petacchi, Zabel) for my money are more worthy riders cause they race all season and try to win all season.

Ullrich Armstrong Heras Beloki Mayo - they don't cut the muster for me.
Yeah i agree, we need less specialized riders (we don`t need them at all...) and more road men who try to win all season (Cunego could be one as well, he had a bad season this year but i think he will be there again in the coming year and he rides the whole year as well, last year Giro Lombardia, this year some semi classics in Italy, i wonder in what shape he will be in Zürich..)
 
It's like apples and oranges to compare sprinters like Zabel, Petacchi with GC contenders. I can't even respond to that with a normal reply. :confused:
 
JU prep is becoming more and more like LA.

-- The team is now riding behind him as sole leader.
-- They are training together more as a unit, for his key mountain domestiques, way before the summer.
-- They are doing ITT testing on a track.
-- They are now even doing equipment testing with riders in a wind tunnel.

"Apart from being supported with vehicles from Audi’s model range, the athletes regularly meet at the ultra-modern wind tunnel centre in Ingolstadt to test and optimise materials and new equipment in perfect conditions. (tmo)"

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tm...rID=2006/monthID=1/itemID=83844/id=78100.html

Now what does that say about the effectiveness of Bruyneel's system? :p
 
Agreed you raise some good points, apart from the drugs culture that USPS.Disco cultivated, systemized and propagated to other teams T-Mobile is very similar... however and fortunately T-Mobile have maintained a 100% clean record amongst all Protour teams which is in stark contrast to others.... It wouldn't surprise me if Bruyneel/Armstrong looks towards the clean T-Mobile model as the future for Discovery in the new heavily tested cycling future... here’s hoping Disco can produce some good cyclist without the use if drugs…

musette said:
JU prep is becoming more and more like LA.


-- The team is now riding behind him as sole leader.
-- They are training together more as a unit, for his key mountain domestiques, way before the summer.
-- They are doing ITT testing on a track.
-- They are now even doing equipment testing with riders in a wind tunnel.

"Apart from being supported with vehicles from Audi’s model range, the athletes regularly meet at the ultra-modern wind tunnel centre in Ingolstadt to test and optimise materials and new equipment in perfect conditions. (tmo)"

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/archive/news/templateId=renderInternalPage/yearID=2006/monthID=1/itemID=83844/id=78100.html

Now what does that say about the effectiveness of Bruyneel's system? :p
 
What's for sure, since it is by admission of TM and its cyclists, is that they are veering closer to LA's model for success in the TdF in the modern era. what is not at all proven, but based on conjecture, are various allegations against LA and Beltran. ;)
 
musette said:
What's for sure, since it is by admission of TM and its cyclists, is that they are veering closer to LA's model for success in the TdF in the modern era. what is not at all proven, but based on conjecture, are various allegations against LA and Beltran. ;)
Agreed Disco is covered with dirty underground allegations which haven't been proven by the authorities.... hearsay, rumour and innuendo cover Armstrong, Beltran and co.... thankfully Ullrich and his close-knit team of riders have nothing to do with banned doctors or convicted criminals and no such slurs are thrown upon them... Ullrich knows the company he keeps and stays well away from convicted criminals and former drugs users like Bruyneel..... he is the modern cyclist who epitomises clean riding….. no wonder the peleton speak of him so highly…..... :p