What's wrong Jan?

musette said:

If somebody doesn't ride a bike, but they have more analytical methods and apply them, that doesn't mean they are less insightful than people who ride bikes.

Analysis ?
You're more of a Discovery/LA cheerleader, I would have thought ?

And as for your analysis, the fact that you have never crashed on a bike, shouldn't be eliminated from your analysis.

musette said:

I don't think JU should have to assist Vino. JU is the team leader; he does not have to help Vino, even though that's better for TM. JU should have Guerini, Sevilla continuing to work for him. If JU allows Vino to become leader, he will have this same problem of every year having to be in front of his domestiques or being asked to sacrifice his own interests.

If JU cannot gain time on LA after the first week, and if Vino is ahead of JU on GC, JU ought to do the honourable thing and support Vino.

I know that these tactics might be new to you but cycling history has plenty of illustrations where a team leader who is not performing well, supported his
fellow team riders because they were doing better on GC.

davidbod said:

If you were to take Lance out of the tour and look at the perfomances I don't think you would come up with Jan as the favorite to win. I don't think Jan will ever win another tour, he just is not at the same level as other riders any more.

A few days before the Tour began, LA said that, if he had to choose who would win the 06 TdF, it would be JU. Although LA did mention Vino and Basso, along with JU, as his three main rivals.

On OLN's extended coverage last night - replay with more commentary - Paul Sherwin did an interview with Lance which must have been the day before or the morning of the first stage. He pretty much came out and said Vino was more of a threat than Jan and Basso was the big mystery card. He based this on Vino's performance in the Dauphine and Jan's performance, or the lack of in the Suisse. He marvelled at Basso's ITT performance in the Giro and clearly he is more worried about Basso and Vino than Jan. Normally you might think he would be doing this to get into Jan's head, but the timing and airing of the interview is such that I don't think so. Typically this kind of interview is the real deal on what Lance thinks.

And I'll reiterate, I'm not a Jan hater. If anything I'm just as dissapointed as the rest that he will apparently not be closer to Lance this year. The difference is I look at it objectively without the emotion some people do.

I hope if it does turn out that Vino is clearly the better contender that Jan does the right thing.

Ullefan said:

Lance could be involved in a crash today, it could happen. Today is another day right?

Wouldnt you want JU to beat LA head to head????? Not by a crash. I think there would be a little more honor and respect in it if he beat him head to head.

davidbod said:

On OLN's extended coverage last night - replay with more commentary - Paul Sherwin did an interview with Lance which must have been the day before or the morning of the first stage. He pretty much came out and said Vino was more of a threat than Jan and Basso was the big mystery card. He based this on Vino's performance in the Dauphine and Jan's performance, or the lack of in the Suisse. He marvelled at Basso's ITT performance in the Giro and clearly he is more worried about Basso and Vino than Jan. Normally you might think he would be doing this to get into Jan's head, but the timing and airing of the interview is such that I don't think so. Typically this kind of interview is the real deal on what Lance thinks.

And I'll reiterate, I'm not a Jan hater. If anything I'm just as dissapointed as the rest that he will apparently not be closer to Lance this year. The difference is I look at it objectively without the emotion some people do.

I hope if it does turn out that Vino is clearly the better contender that Jan does the right thing.

.......and the reason why LA always refers to JU as being his real challenger is because JU is the only other rider in the peloton to have won the TDF.

JU has historically been viewed by LA as the major threat because he can both ITT and climb. Historically, Vino had been considerably weaker than JU and LA in the ITTs.

Because LA himself is so strong in both ITT and climbing, he probably saw his major rival to have to be good in both disciplines as well. As everybody knows, LA has only been ever beaten by a few people in the Tour prologues or ITTs (e.g., Miller, JU, Botero). That is why Vino, before his recent form, was never as strong a threat as JU. He never had the capabilities to beat LA in the ITT.

That is why Heras and Mayo and the climbers cannot win whilst LA is around. That is in sharp contrast to Pantani RIP, who would have to gain seconds in the mountains that he had lost in the ITTs, or even Indurain, who very generally was a stronger ITTist than a climber relative to his stronger peers.

The reason LA is so hard to dethrone is that, when he is in good form and his competitors are in their respective best forms, LA can win over everybody in both the ITTs and the climbs. Add to that that his team are good TTTists, and he has the best DS. What weakness is there?

Also, Vino is only ahead of JU by a little bit. True, he was third, but in terms of time gain over JU, Vino's was limited. Nobody should be already arguing that JU should consider ceding team leadership to Vino.

thebluetrain said:

Wouldnt you want JU to beat LA head to head????? Not by a crash. I think there would be a little more honor and respect in it if he beat him head to head.

Oh for sure, but it doesn't look like that will happen, seeing as Jan had a serious accident the day before the ITT. 😎

Jan pulls back 5 seconds on eveybody, apparently, but I don't think he did because there was a crash? :eek:

No..wait...yes...yes i'm right...5 seconds woohoo...

Ullefan said:

Jan pulls back 5 seconds on eveybody, apparently, but I don't think he did because there was a crash? :eek:

No..wait...yes...yes i'm right...5 seconds woohoo...

Haha, yes I noticed it too. 😄
He moves from the 12th position to the 6th position.
It is great he got some time back in a race like today because usually the peloton doesn´t break and everyone has the same time.

He deserves it, after the terrible crash he suffered, he always keeps fighting.
I still hope he can win this tour. 😎

Ullefan said:

Lance could be involved in a crash today, it could happen. Today is another day right?

I would consider myself more of an ulrich fan than LA but there is no way I would want ulrich to win because LA crashed out, that is just [censored] man. 🙁

Watch_be said:

Haha, yes I noticed it too. 😄
He moves from the 12th position to the 6th position.
It is great he got some time back in a race like today because usually the peloton doesn´t break and everyone has the same time.

He deserves it, after the terrible crash he suffered, he always keeps fighting.
I still hope he can win this tour. 😎

Huh? Cyclingnews is reporting that there were no time gaps? 😕
cyclingnews.comtour05Open ↗

Ullefan said:

Huh? Cyclingnews is reporting that there were no time gaps? 😕
cyclingnews.comtour05Open ↗

The Race Directors must have changed the outcome. Immediately after the race Cyclingnews had Ullrich down by 1:03.

musette said:

Also, Vino is only ahead of JU by a little bit. True, he was third, but in terms of time gain over JU, Vino's was limited. Nobody should be already arguing that JU should consider ceding team leadership to Vino.

I did state that if JU could not regain time on LA after a week, and if Vino is ahead of JU on GC, JU should do the honourable thing and pull for Vino.

There are no time gaps because of the rule that, if there is a crash during the last 3 km of a stage, people get the time of the group they were with at the time of the crash. Hence, JU did not regain a few seconds.

According to Procycling, Pavenage questioned whether JU should have been pedaling such large gears during the ITT stage.

musette said:

DC is in very good form as a team. Bold font means very strong DC climbers.

As I have argued on the "which team is better" thread, DC has mountain goats who can TTT. Beltran is the worse ITTist, but even he isn't a bad TTTist. DC has the whole team (except Padrnos) having at least low-to-moderate mountain good climbing skills. on top of that, Ace, Chechu, Beltran, Popo can really stay with LA (at least two of them on every climb) for quite a while.

2 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 0.02
4 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel 0.57
16 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) Discovery Channel 1.16
17 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel 1.18
22 Benjamin Noval (Spa) Discovery Channel 1.28
31 Pavel Padrnos (Cze) Discovery Channel 1.34
32 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 1.35
34 Jose Azevedo (Por) Discovery Channel 1.39
70 Manuel Beltran (Spa) Discovery Channel 2.14
Meanwhile, TM:

3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 0.53
12 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.08
51 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.00
88 Stephan Schreck (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.29
89 Tobias Steinhauser (Ger) T-Mobile Team
98 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team 2.31
117 Daniele Nardello (Ita) T-Mobile Team 2.43
125 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) T-Mobile Team 2.44
168 Matthias Kessler (Ger) T-Mobile Team 3.09

DC's website indicates that D Demol was especially happy that six out of the nine DC ITTists caught their one-minute man: Beltran didn't of course catch Vino. Padrnos didn't catch Guerini. Benjamin didn't catch Kloden.

LA/JU

George Hincapie 0.57
Tobias Steinhauser 2.29

Paolo Savoldelli 1.35
Matthias Kessler 3.09

Jose Luis Rubiera 1.16
Sevilla 2.44

Ace 1.39
Nardello 2.43

Popovych 1.18
Scheck 2.29
.

The TM performances as a team are shown to be poor by Guerini's coming in only fourth last on his team. Guereini! :eek:

So, not only do the DC cyclists seem to be doing better in the ITTs in Stage 1, but also they are a stronger technical TTT-skilled team. (Also, each of the six DC members who caught their TM one-minute man is better in the mountains by a significant margin than their one-minute man, including Chechu/Sevilla, taking into account the form of the last few years)

It must be demoralizing for the TM team. To have LA catch JU, but also to be caught, in almost every case except for Vino, Kloden and Guereini, to be caught by the DC rider following them. It must have been depressing for somebody like Matthais Kessler, having Savoldelli pass him and knowing that Savoldelli was not riding in his very best possible way. Knowing that that was the Giro 2005 and former Giro winner, and he was LA's domestique, and he is chasing you.

As I have been long discussing, TM's problems are not limited to exclusion of Zabel from the team. The TM climbing domestiques are first of all, not as good in the mountains as the DC climbing domestiques. Equally depressingly, they are not as good in the TTT as the DC climbing domestiques, who are actually pretty decent ITTists. Ace is very strong in the ITT, as is Popo. Beltran is acceptable, and Rubiera is improving and a fairly good TTTist. Each domestique (except Padrnos) can both TTT and climb. Even Noval and Hincapie can climb.

Look at the TM team. Some can't even climb. And those who can climb are either (1) GC hopefuls themselves whose loyalty to JU is questionable, or (2) not strong TTTists. Sevilla may be an exception, if he were in better form than he currently has (or that he has had in the last few years). A lot of wasted slots on the TM team, even after Zabe lis left off.

Gee, I wonder how much time JU will lose Tuesday. 😕

But is that really the case: I think that Basso will be really good and LA thinks the same if you read between the lines what he says. He is LA's biggest threat!

limerickman said:

.......and the reason why LA always refers to JU as being his real challenger is because JU is the only other rider in the peloton to have won the TDF.

Despite good ITTing in the Giro, we need to see a bit more of Basso's ITT capabilities before we can fully evaluate how much of a challenge Basso will be post-LA era. Of course he will be a big challenger; the question is whether he can win over JU.

Jan's Diary:

What happened yesterday took me a while to digest. Going into the first stage I felt in pretty good shape - that made me optimistic. But, as Lance passed me, I couldn´t quite believe it. So, of course, I´m still not particularly happy with the opener.

But it is amazing what a difference a day makes: I´m looking ahead now. I believe, as I did before, that I am in good shape and that this Tour is still wide open.

I had an off-day, but Lance could also have an off-day, so we must be ready for this. Whatever happens, I´m going to fight on and give it everything.

There will be some hectic and dangerous finales to the coming stages, but with Tuesday´s team time trial in mind, our team will be concentrate on staying out of trouble. It went well for us today - we all made it across the line in Les Essarts unscathed, despite the hectic finale. We were also able to conserve our strength for the challenges to come.

Overall, I rode a much better race today than yesterday, when I suffered from fatigue.

There is a long way to go in this Tour - I´m hoping for your continued support!

Later,

Jan

So he was suffering from fatigue? It's well documented that after such trauma, the body goes into defensive mode and fatigue is a symptom of the immune system's reaction.

Ullefan said:

Jan's Diary:

So he was suffering from fatigue? It's well documented that after such trauma, the body goes into defensive mode and fatigue is a symptom of the immune system's reaction.

Trauma schauma! He went through a piece of glass had a freaking cut on his neck that lost a few ounces of blood. This minor accident is a non-factor in his performance.

babylou said:

Trauma schauma! He went through a piece of glass had a freaking cut on his neck that lost a few ounces of blood. This minor accident is a non-factor in his performance.

Bull [censored], I have ridden with problems before and they can absolutely throw you down.
This is the TDF you are either in tip top form or you are just another # in the peloton.
Yes ,physical and or mental distractions can limit your performance. It is wayYYYYY too soon to count any body out.