Where's Jan ?

Discussion in 'Professional Cycling' started by whiteboytrash, Mar 9, 2006.



  1. patch70

    patch70 New Member

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    Regarding "innocent until proven guilty", the fact that I have the opinion that CSC are doping with the best of them does not constitute "guilt". Just like I believe OJ Simpson to be "guilty" but he's still officially "innocent".

    Also, proving "guilt" with respect to doping is extremely difficult with the current testing. If teams are microdosing Epo, using human growth hormone & hemopure, getting dodgey doctors' certificates saying that all their riders are asthmatic and have contact dermatitis so that they can then use beta 2 agonists and corticosteroids respectively, or are using new agents that are not yet being tested for, they will come up "innocent". It is only those riders that are stupid or badly advised or extremely unlucky that are "guilty".

    I do love the racing and watch it every opportunity I get. Even if it were completely clean, all those pro cyclists would thrash me on the bike no matter how hard I train. I would prefer that the sport were clean but I am not so naive as to pretend it is not a problem affecting many professional sports. As long as the majority of fans don't care about or don't know about doping, then the UCI etc will continue to pretend that it isn't really happening.
     
  2. tomkay

    tomkay New Member

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    Lim,

    An overweight Lance at the beginning of March is not the same thing as an overweight Ullrich at the end of April! At this point Ullrich should have been very near his Tour weight, instead he looks to be atleast 10 - 15 lbs overweight. I'm not saying he can't or won't lose the extra pounds, it's just that we have seen this thing played out countless times and this year is not looking any different. I'm beginning to think that Riis was correct in his assesment of Ullrich, his form does look to be 'catastrophic' and Basso is light years ahead of him.
     
  3. patch70

    patch70 New Member

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    Yes, she's got brilliant double standards.
    Paris-Nice 2005 prologue and Armstrong finishes 140th (out of 168) but that means nothing. It was just Paris-Nice, not the Tour. He wasn't trying etc etc.
    Ullrich cruises in this prologue and let's abuse him!!!
     
  4. tomkay

    tomkay New Member

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    Again, we need to put this in perspective. We are at the end of April, not the beginning of March. Guys like Basso, Valverde, Landis, etc are showing tremendous form and have won some important races. Sure we can all say it's still early and Ullrich has time but isn't that what we said every year? It seems to me that Ullrich just doesn't want to learn from all his past mistakes, his head is in the sand. Riis' observations on Ullrich were 100% correct.
     
  5. bobke

    bobke New Member

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    One only need look at past performance as a predictor of future behavior.

    Lance was in awful form in Paris Nice, but showed up in 2005 start for TdF in THE FORM OF HIS LIFE, to quote him, and he PROVED ITin the prologue by passing Ullrich for over a minute.

    Jan on the other hand does the same crap every year. This year is no different. Fat and out of shape.

    In 2003 he was in good shape at this point in the season, finished in hte lead peloton in LBL and rode off in Rundfarht am Koln on a 50 km break solo...a sign of things to come in the tour when he beat Lance in a ITT and attacked him in the mountains.

    This year?
    Jan is fat and lazy and undertrained as usual.
    He never learns.

    He will not podium even, he is over.
    Maybe he should try to do something he can win.
     
  6. tinks

    tinks New Member

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    I'd be much more interested to see how Jan looks at the end of Romandie.

    If he has done as much training over the break as he says he has and his base fitness is there, those 10-15 pounds will melt off no problem.
     
  7. cyclingheroes

    cyclingheroes New Member

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    I agree, first of all you could see it very well in the curves of the prologue, he defenitly didn't push himself. Second: Riis is getting pretty arrogant, i hope that Basso will ride a good Giro and TdF but the Italian press will probebly remind Basso of Riis his big mouth (not only the things he said about Ullrich, also 3 riders in the final of L-B-L, we are going to win the double and so on..). But i have to say my opinion is maybe not very objective: i never liked Riis.
     
  8. guncha

    guncha New Member

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    I think that this 4km ITT doesn't mean anything. Pla-De-Beret, the first tour's mountaintop finish, will show whether Jan has chances to win the tour. Vuelta 2003 finished at the Beret and GC top5 crossed the line together that time. At the same time the Beret stage of this year's TDF is harder because Tourmalet is added as bonus in comparsion to the 2003 Vuelta's stage with Aspin, Peyresourde, Portillon and Beret only.
     
  9. Bjorn P.Dal

    Bjorn P.Dal New Member

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    Nice info that, thanks.
     
  10. micron

    micron New Member

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    you know who Riis always reminded me of? Homer Simpson on a bike... ;)
     
  11. jhuskey

    jhuskey Moderator

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    What do have against Homer? What did he ever do to you? :D
     
  12. bobke

    bobke New Member

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    This is why the course is designed for him!
    The first mnt stage is a downhill finish.
    The second is Pla de Beret which is not that steep or selective and will give him a chance to not get dropped the way he does every time the race hits the mountains!!!!!!!!!!!!! The tourmalet before will make no difference. There is enough time for everyone to regroup. I cant see CSC blowing the race apart on Tourmalet to isolate Jan.

    However, other climbers could try to get away, but why would Valverde, he'll beat evryone at the line.

    The only chance would be if a number of climbers go away together like Basso Valverde Evans to try and get time on Jan but Basso wont.

    Anyway... this is why I feel they designed the course for Jan, the selective climbs like AlpedHuez wont happen till he already has climbing in his legs as he always does the second or third week.l
     
  13. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    I agree that the Pla D Beret stage is the absolute key. Jan has gotten crushed on the first mt. stage for years now. Even in 2003, his best tour post 97, he lost over two minutes on Alpe D'Huez with a "fever" La Mongie, everyone said was not that hard, and he got dropped badly (2004). Courchevel, 2005, long but not steep, same deal. If he get to the top and lose under a minute, I believe he will win the tour. If he loses two or more, he will lose. I believe this stage is that decisive. Alpe D'Huez is later and he usually can hang in there by the last week. It is so hard to calculate the no-Lance factor.

    Bottom line, the tour is won or lost on the first mt. top in Spain. under a minute, he wins, over two he loses. That is my prediction and I will stand by it.
     
  14. tcklyde

    tcklyde New Member

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    Jan has a round face. I actually don't think he looks too bad. Encouraging to see his rib cage protruding over his stomach.
     
  15. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    I did see that but as someone who is forced to suck my stomach in order to feel less embarrassed, I know that the protruding rib thing is a direct result of the sucking in. He wouldn't be sucking his stomach in if there was nothing to suck.

    Can I make a suggestion???? Can we make a choice to do this thread OR the Ullrich's new team thread? They really should be the same discussion. The whole team debate can stay in the Discovery in Disarray love fest and we could use this one for the Jan Ullrich fan club vs. Jan Ullrich critics debate. It's tough when the same debate is going on in different threads. We need a little consolidation in my view.
     
  16. jhuskey

    jhuskey Moderator

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    How about doing one for cycling fans who love the sport and have no hate for any specific cyclist.
     
  17. musette

    musette New Member

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  18. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    baby steps orange man, baby steps. BTW, are you a Vols fan? I lived up the road in Asheville for years and it seemed like everyone from east tennessee bleeds orange.
     
  19. jhuskey

    jhuskey Moderator

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    Need you ask? Of course I am,even when they suck,like last season. There is nothing like a Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium "tailgating".
     
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