Who would have won the 2003 TDF

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by davidbod, Nov 16, 2003.

  1. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    Who would have won the 2003 TDF if Joseba Beloki had not crashed out?

    Well we've had the 'how many more tours will Lance win' poll and the thread on whether LA or JU is the better rider. How about who you think would have won the 2003 TDF if Joseba Beloki had not crashed out. How do you think the top 5 finishes might have been affected.

    I think LA would have still won, but I think JB would have been 2nd and the rest one place down from there.
     
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  2. Daremo

    Daremo New Member

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    I'd have to throw it in for Beloki .........

    He was dominating LA up to the point he crashed except for the TT. And ONCE is typically the best team.
     
  3. flyinghatchet

    flyinghatchet New Member

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    ONCE is no more. i guess la boulangere will be the new team to finish second or third with ullrich behind armstrong next year.
     
  4. RalleighOke

    RalleighOke New Member

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    I still think LA would have pulled something out of the bag to win it.
     
  5. Julian Radowsky

    Julian Radowsky New Member

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    I would have to say Beloki. However, the rider to watch for the future is probably Vinokourov.
     
  6. Daremo

    Daremo New Member

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    I know ONCE is gone, but they have always been the strongest team throughout the years.
     
  7. flyinghatchet

    flyinghatchet New Member

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    Agreed.
     
  8. donhix1

    donhix1 New Member

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    Once always won the team time trial, but individually riders would have a bad day like they did in the Vuelta.
    THere was no doubt that Lance didn't have his best tour but he sucked it when it counted and came through. Ulrich really missed his chance.
    Once is sort of reforming with most of its riders and the same director. I forgot what the new sponsor is.
     
  9. xc_gumby

    xc_gumby New Member

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    It woulda been much tougher for LA to stay on top. As it was, he was being pretty closely marked by Euskatel. For mine, they had the best tour considering they're a geographic wild card entry. Haimar Zubeldia - what a discovery!

    I reckon with some Basque esprit de corps in the Pyrenees the story might have been a bit different.

    But would this have suited Beloki over Ullrich?

    I think so. A minute over all lead isn't much.

    Anyway, it could have just as easily have been LA on the ground in the Nantes time trial.
     
  10. donhix1

    donhix1 New Member

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    The reason Lance has won five TOurs is that on his off days he is abe to limit his losses. Every other rider drops a minute on some time trial or a mountain stage.
    Ulrich would have still stayed ahead of Beloki.
    Lance lost probably half a minute on the Beloki crash. Beloki was more worried about losing his podium spot other wise he wouldn't have been chasing so hard, he would have been marking Lance.

    The reason Armstrong wasn't on the ground at the Nantes time trial is that he has proven that he is a superior bike handler to Ulrich.

    THe real question is what would have happened in the Nantes time trial if hadn't rained and Ulrich could have gone all out.

    I do think Lance will have problems with Ulrich next year. He has matured, is on a better team and is really motivated. I would put money on Ulrich next year (if that sort of thing was legal in the states).

    Anyway, next Tour with all the mountain stages and an uphill time trial all buched up in the last third of the tour. It will be Epic.
     
  11. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    What a simplistic answer to your question. LA 1st, JB 2nd & everyone else move down a spot.

    LA would have been to worried & busy fighting off JB. Then JU would have slipped by for the victory. With even JB at 2nd. LA was weak, didn't even take a TT. With JB & team attacking. This would have been to much for LA to handle.....

    Memph
     
  12. donhix1

    donhix1 New Member

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    Probably the same way the Once boys attacked Heras in the last few stages of the Vuelta
     
  13. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    It was simply meant to get the conversation started. For those of you still dreaming about JU winning a tour over LA, dream on. From what I have learned in the post op of this tour, LA had two very bad days. The first was on the Alpe D'Huez stage where he went up and over the Galibier and realized about 2/3 through the 160K that his rear brake was rubbing. He later remarked that the pad that was rubbing was gone! The second was the first ITT where he was clearly severely dehydrated.

    The fact that he overcame both of these (not to mention the numerous other remarkable recoveries) and still managed to put the tour away with a single one of his trademark mountain efforts says it all. I think if you put JU or JB through either of these 2 bad days that LA had they would have been 5 minutes back all said and done. I also think if JB had stayed in the race ONCE would have pushed Postal much harder than Bianchi did and that would have simply meant JU would not have been as close as he was.

    When LA was clearly hurting after that ITT a strong team should have put him away. Maybe JB and ONCE could have done it, JU and Bianchi clearly tried and failed. I think that was as close of an opportunity to beat LA as there ever will be until he retires, and we know what the outcome was.

    David
     
  14. donhix1

    donhix1 New Member

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    Don't take my word just listen to some of the interviews Lance has given. THe only person he was worried about was Jan and he has said on many occasions that Jan is the most athletically gifted rider in the peleton.
    What sets them apart is Lances training and incredibly tough attitude. If all things are even I think Lance will win going away, and Jan will get second which has happened a few times already.
     
  15. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    Nice excuses for the weakness of LA. What USPS is too poor to set up bike right? They use cheap equipment? Also the 1st ITT was a surprize to LA? He didn't know about it? Well else would he not prepare for it better. Unless it was yet another excuse.

    Heck if JU had a stronger team & not lost so much time in the TTT, race would have been different.

    Face it, LA showed his weakness. His team got him that lucky win.....

    Memph
     
  16. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    The heat was the wildcard factor in that ITT. At 100+ F and the fact that he warmed up outside and probably didn't drink much during his warm up as to not carry extra weight, he was on his way to dehydration before he ever left the start gate. A mistake he will certainly not make again.

    When you do it five times in a row, luck has nothing to do with it, unless it is bad luck that makes things look closer than they would have been otherwise. The one thing JU has going for him is that LA will probably retire before JU is over the hill.

    David
     
  17. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    As I wrote earlier. Was this his 1st ITT ever? So what if heat was that high, what it suddenly jumped 10-15F hotter from start time of other favourites? LA does not know how to drink water? Does not how to prepare for an ITT? More excuses to cover his lack of strength in the ITT.

    Luck has everything to do with winning. LA was lucky that Belonki crashed & he made it thru the grass without dumping his bike. Lucky that his bike or him was not hurt worse as he spilled on the uphill climb. Lucky the final ITT was wet, so JU could not make up more time. Shall I go on.....

    Memph
     
  18. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    Yes keep going right into 2004 and 2005 with all that luck. "Belonki" now that's funny.

    David
     
  19. jstraw

    jstraw New Member

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    I think the more interesting question is where would an uninjured Tyler Hamilton have finished.

    The future of the major stage races look awfully good to me in the coming post-Armstrong years...so much talent coming up from all over...a golden age may be just around the corner...we may not see anyone win back to back tours again for a while and that would be *great*. I'd like to see the season move away from being THE TOUR and everything-else. I'd like to see the Giro become really important again.

    I really like the philosophy behind the changes the UCI is about to bring forward regarding teams and participation and the impact that will have on other races and especially what it will mean for sponsors that may no longer base their participation on Tour results alone...
     
  20. limerickman

    limerickman Moderator

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    How do you think Tyler will fare this year ?
    New team, new structure at Phonak.
    I thought that he had agreat 2003 TDF and perhaps should have
    considered staying at CSC for another year.
    (Riis is a good manager).

    Have to say that Ia gree with you about there being too much focus on the TDF to the exclusion of everything else in a season.
    Giro/Vuelta/Classics are all worthy of merit.
     
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