getting the wind behind you



S

[email protected]

Guest
I cycled to Bristol from Oxford on saturday. The wind was behind me
and it was pure joy, especially the immense downhill from the cotswolds
through Wotton Under Edge to the plains above Bristol - stunning views.
Anyway, I was wondering about forecasts and how to know where the wind
will be pointing some time ahead. For circular routes its not so
important because what you lose in one direction you win in another.
For longer distances and especially lands end to john ogroats, it would
be nice to know the wind direction and strength with some confidence
some time ahead (so you can change the dates at work if it looks bad).
Compared with normal weather forecasting, it should be relatively easy,
in that we want to know whether the wind is going to be in our face or
at our back, rather than if it will rain and other incredibly variable
point variables. Does anybody know if anybody does mid range (days to
weeks ahead) forecasting of this nature? I just emailed the met office
and am waiting for something from them but wondered what you lot use
(if anything?).

cheers

Stew
 
[email protected] wrote:

> Does anybody know if anybody does mid range (days to weeks ahead)
> forecasting of this nature?

XCweather is an excellent site for live wind/weather information (designed
for glider pilots): http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ -- it also has some
short-term wind forecsats. Don't know about medium-term, I wouldn't trust a
forecast claiming to accurately predict weather a amtter of weeks ahead,
anyway.
 
[email protected] wrote:

> Compared with normal weather forecasting, it should be relatively easy,
> in that we want to know whether the wind is going to be in our face or
> at our back

Up to a point... Wind systems blow into but also around moving low
pressure areas, so according to how far a system has progressed and
exactly how you stand relative to its centre the wind may be in a
completely different direction after just a few hours, which when you're
trying to nail it down a few days in advance is Non Trivial work :-(

> I just emailed the met office
> and am waiting for something from them but wondered what you lot use
> (if anything?).

Cross fingers, chant mystic prayers, chalk magical symbols.

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net [email protected] http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/
 
Peter Clinch wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
>
> > Compared with normal weather forecasting, it should be relatively easy,
> > in that we want to know whether the wind is going to be in our face or
> > at our back
>
> Up to a point... Wind systems blow into but also around moving low
> pressure areas, so according to how far a system has progressed and
> exactly how you stand relative to its centre the wind may be in a
> completely different direction after just a few hours, which when you're
> trying to nail it down a few days in advance is Non Trivial work :-(
>
> > I just emailed the met office
> > and am waiting for something from them but wondered what you lot use
> > (if anything?).
>
> Cross fingers, chant mystic prayers, chalk magical symbols.

met office offered me a medium term forecast for 180 pounds
 
Simon Bennett wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
>
>
>>Does anybody know if anybody does mid range (days to weeks ahead)
>>forecasting of this nature?
>
>
> XCweather is an excellent site for live wind/weather information (designed
> for glider pilots): http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ -- it also has some
> short-term wind forecsats. Don't know about medium-term, I wouldn't trust a
> forecast claiming to accurately predict weather a amtter of weeks ahead,
> anyway.
>
>

Yes and no. Precise forecasts are just never going to exist more than a
few days out, but everywhere has prevailing conditions and the
prevailing winds aren't going to be from the same direction for all 12
months of the year, are they? Some sort of clue as to what winds are
likely for a particular area in a given time of the year must be feasible?
 
chris harrison wrote:

> Yes and no. Precise forecasts are just never going to exist more than a
> few days out, but everywhere has prevailing conditions and the
> prevailing winds aren't going to be from the same direction for all 12
> months of the year, are they?

Well... yes, I'm afraid. The UK has prevailing westerlies throughout
the year, meaning it's a bit more likely to be westerly than easterly,
northerly or southerly on any given random day. We get more weather
from over the Atlantic than for over Europe, it's all generally moving
westwards with the prevailing winds.

> Some sort of clue as to what winds are
> likely for a particular area in a given time of the year must be feasible?

As above. The area is "the UK", the time of year is January to
December. Note that "more likely" for a Westerly is not "sufficiently
more likely you should bet money on it" :-(
Note the e2es tend to do SW to NE in part because you're marginally more
likely to get wind with you rather than against you, but I don't think
you'll have to look /too/ hard to find someone that spent the majority
of the time into headwinds.

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net [email protected] http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/
 
The more different weather forecasting sites you look at the more confusing
it gets, but least you can pick and choose which to believe depending on
your personal optimism/pessimism levels.
Several years in the run-up to the Glastonbury festival I've trawled around
for indications as to how much of a mudbath we're going to get and they all
disagree. I was even moved to write to the BBC to ask why their 5 day
forecasts disagree so often with those of the Met Office, and to the Met
Office to ask why day 1 of their 5 dayers disagree with their own 24 hour
forecasts. The answers came down to "interpretation".
The BBC does a monthly outlook:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml
 
POHB wrote:
> The more different weather forecasting sites you look at the more confusing
> it gets, but least you can pick and choose which to believe depending on
> your personal optimism/pessimism levels.

I've noticed this has brought about a certain way of going about things
when lining up something to do. There's a tendency to skip about sites
and either confirm if you find /anything/ good or cancel if there's
/anything/ bad, or some shade in between according to mood.

Given the range of forecasts now available, it often seems short
circuiting the browsing and going according to mood anyway might be
easier...

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net [email protected] http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/
 
Peter Clinch wrote On 02/28/06 10:55,:
> POHB wrote:
>
>>The more different weather forecasting sites you look at the more confusing
>>it gets, but least you can pick and choose which to believe depending on
>>your personal optimism/pessimism levels.
>
>
> I've noticed this has brought about a certain way of going about things
> when lining up something to do. There's a tendency to skip about sites
> and either confirm if you find /anything/ good or cancel if there's
> /anything/ bad, or some shade in between according to mood.
>
> Given the range of forecasts now available, it often seems short
> circuiting the browsing and going according to mood anyway might be
> easier...

As in so many things, I think Jerome K Jerome had it right...

---
But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it
comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand. The
prophet we like is the old man who, on the particularly gloomy-looking
morning of some day when we particularly want it to be fine, looks round
the horizon with a particularly knowing eye, and says:

"Oh no, sir, I think it will clear up all right. It will break all right
enough, sir."

"Ah, he knows", we say, as we wish him good-morning, and start off;
"wonderful how these old fellows can tell!"

And we feel an affection for that man which is not at all lessened by
the circumstances of its NOT clearing up, but continuing to rain
steadily all day.

"Ah, well," we feel, "he did his best."

For the man that prophesies us bad weather, on the contrary, we
entertain only bitter and revengeful thoughts.

"Going to clear up, d'ye think?" we shout, cheerily, as we pass.

"Well, no, sir; I'm afraid it's settled down for the day," he replies,
shaking his head.

"Stupid old fool!" we mutter, "what's HE know about it?" And, if his
portent proves correct, we come back feeling still more angry against
him, and with a vague notion that, somehow or other, he has had
something to do with it.
---

Mike
 
Peter Clinch wrote:
> chris harrison wrote:
>
>> Yes and no. Precise forecasts are just never going to exist more than
>> a few days out, but everywhere has prevailing conditions and the
>> prevailing winds aren't going to be from the same direction for all 12
>> months of the year, are they?
>
>
> Well... yes, I'm afraid. The UK has prevailing westerlies throughout
> the year, meaning it's a bit more likely to be westerly than easterly,
> northerly or southerly on any given random day. We get more weather
> from over the Atlantic than for over Europe, it's all generally moving
> westwards with the prevailing winds.

Right, I'm with you most of the way but I *know* that there are
peculiarities for particular areas of the country for particular times
of year that are predictable.

I'm a rower and I know that the 2000m course at Nottingham sees a shift
in the wind patterns from Winter to Summer - that the prevailing
conditions shift around which makes unrowable conditions more likely in
the summer (i.e. regatta racing season) than winter (training sessions
for the local clubs). Perhaps this is due to the land-locked nature of
the area and hotter earth temperatures.

Whatever the reasons, this kind of local pecularities might be
predictable with a little more specificity than "we're in the UK,
south-west is where it's generally at"?
 
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