Saltwater kills brain cells??

It would explain why you¹re such a moron, that¹s for sure.

On 10/24/2004 05:06 PM, in article
[email hidden], "Steve"

Quoted message said:

Must be the saltwater.............

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

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Steve said:

Must be the saltwater.............

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

No... I think it's posting in HTML that does.

Or is that the result of dead brain cells...?

Steve said:

Must be the saltwater.............

I guess you are just jealous that they had brain cells to start with.

Don't worry, if salt water really does kill neurones, they'll eventually get down to your intellect Steve.

Steve said:

Must be the saltwater.............

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

Yeah, CNN just said that Florida is going Bush as
he's up by an average of 8 points over the last
two days, so I have no clue why it isn't red on there.

--
Scott Johnson / scottjohnson at kc dot rr dot com

Top Sirloin said:

Yeah, CNN just said that Florida is going Bush as
he's up by an average of 8 points over the last
two days, so I have no clue why it isn't red on there.

http://www.boomchicago.nl/images/Voting_Machine.wmv

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Top Sirloin said:

Steve said:

Must be the saltwater.............

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

Quoted message said:

Yeah, CNN just said that Florida is going Bush as
he's up by an average of 8 points over the last
two days, so I have no clue why it isn't red on there.

There was one of those unintentionally funny news stories a
couple of weeks ago in the papers here. Harris did a poll
that showed Bush with a 9 point lead here. The article
mentioned that they had done a poll at the same time four
years earlier that showed Bush with a 13 point lead in
a state that Gore won.

All signs from the campaigns are that we are dead even.
Both sides are going apeshit. There ain't no 9 point
difference.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Bob Schwartz said:

we are dead even.

I disagree.

--
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/polls/pollbias.html

Robert Chung said:

Bob Schwartz said:

we are dead even.

I disagree.

He is right for the wrong reason. I realized Nader is correct in that they are
very similar. Moreover, when it comes to our political institutions (balancing
of powers), it further reduces dissimilarities.

So by the homogenizing force, "we are dead even" when it comes to what the
actual result will be. (Hah, hah, I changed the terms.) The dissimilarities,
where they exist, are buffered in political practice after one of the dumbasses
takes the prize.

Bush won't be politically able to initiate any more warring (the major
contention), even if he wins. Congress (and the public) will say: "Fool me
once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." Kerry's dumbass agenda will
also be buffered by Congress, since it will probably stay in the opposition
column.

This was a nice epiphany, because it permits a vote on actual principles, rather
than a "least bad" vote.

"Fool me once... <pause>....<blank>.....<pause>....<blank>.....
well, you're just not going to fool me." -- GWB

Robert Chung said:

Bob Schwartz said:

we are dead even.

I disagree.

At first I thought, looking at that graph..."So, CBS, NBC and Pew would
be the best indicators of actual opinion..."
But then....

"...Jerome has word from a pollster that CBS spiked a Florida poll
because it showed Kerry up by a whopping 4 points. I had heard that the
4 point poll was what they got after redoing a previous poll they
weren't happy with - one which showed Kerry up by 8 or 9."
http://atrios.blogspot.com and
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/27/113421/70

Been getting many hits on that graph from CBS sources checking
calibration, Robert?

Stewart Fleming said:

At first I thought, looking at that graph..."So, CBS, NBC and Pew would
be the best indicators of actual opinion..."

That graph just tells you how polls compared to the all-poll average. It
doesn't mean that the average is the best indicator--in fact, I believe
the all-poll average is a biased estimator (biased in the statistical
sense of the term).

--
A proud member of the reality-based community.

Robert Chung said:

Bob Schwartz said:

we are dead even.

Quoted message said:

I disagree.

Well, here in Wisconsin we have never seen an election like
this. Coolidge once spent a summer as president at a resort
near Lake Superior. He was an avid fly fisherman and we
are blessed with some great trout streams there. But that
was the last time we've gotten this many visits.

Kennedy came through during the primary in 1960 and Bush
the Elder made a campaign stop in '92. Before that the
last presidential visit was Hoover. In the past few
months Bush the Younger has been here twice, both VP
candidates have been here, and assorted family members
have made trips. And this is not a major metro area
folks. You want cows, we got 'em here.

I am being canvassed through all available orifices into
my house. You can't sell a car on TV because there is no
ad time left. When I go home there will be at least one
robo-call on the answering machine and maybe one or two
more from live people. I've voted already and the campaigns
pick up on that and stop, but the 527s like ACT and MoveOn
don't. And the doorbell is getting heavy use.

All the typical strategies that are based on low overall
turnout are in the tank. In a typical election cycle the
battle is waged on getting your side to vote and hoping
voters for the other side sleep though it. This time the
turnout efforts are so strident that all campaigns are
leaving no stone unturned in looking for votes. It's nuts.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

Bob Schwartz said:

Quoted message said:

This time the
turnout efforts are so strident that all campaigns are
leaving no stone unturned in looking for votes. It's nuts.

I typically don't make predictions, for either bike race outcomes or politics
(or the Red Sox in the WS). But I'll break my habit and I do predict a record
turnout. I think we need anonymous.coward plots of voter turnout for wartime
versus peacetime. I have no clue who will win.

gwhite said:

predict a record turnout. I think we need anonymous.coward plots of
voter turnout for wartime versus peacetime.

http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/preturn.htm

--
A proud member of the reality-based community.

"Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

That graph just tells you how polls compared to the all-poll average. It
doesn't mean that the average is the best indicator--in fact, I believe
the all-poll average is a biased estimator (biased in the statistical
sense of the term).

Yeah, right.
"CAMPAIGN 2004 POLL AWARDS....So which poll gets bragging rights this
year for calling the race most accurately? The final popular vote went
to Bush 51%-48%, and the only poll that called it right on the money
was....

Pew Research! Congratulations, guys."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005091.php

Quoted message said:

From: [email hidden] (Stewart Fleming)

Quoted message said:

Yeah, right.
"CAMPAIGN 2004 POLL AWARDS....So which poll gets bragging rights this
year for calling the race most accurately? The final popular vote went
to Bush 51%-48%, and the only poll that called it right on the money
was....

Pew Research! Congratulations, guys."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005091.php

How the hell did Zogby blow it so bad?
Bill C

TritonRider said:

How the hell did Zogby blow it so bad?
Bill C

Hadn't calibrated against Robert's page for bias.

Stewart Fleming said:

"Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

That graph just tells you how polls compared to the all-poll average.
It doesn't mean that the average is the best indicator--in fact, I
believe the all-poll average is a biased estimator (biased in the
statistical sense of the term).

Yeah, right.
"CAMPAIGN 2004 POLL AWARDS....So which poll gets bragging rights this
year for calling the race most accurately? The final popular vote went
to Bush 51%-48%, and the only poll that called it right on the money
was....

Pew Research! Congratulations, guys."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005091.php

My vote has turned out to be an excellent predictor.

--
Still a proud member of the reality-based community.