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Hey Mr. Lafferty ...

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Road Cycling
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4 November 2004
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Dave Stoller
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  1. "Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    "Scott Hendricks" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    The latest independent survey taken through all the cities of Iraq, put


    the

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    death toll of Iraqis in the war at 300,000. That's a big number. Much


    bigger

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    then I would of thought. This was done by going to all the cities and
    talking to Iraqis. According to them the largest percentage was women


    and

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    children. Also children continue to die from playing with unspent


    cluster

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    bombs that they pick up as toys to bring home and show mama. I'm sure


    that

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    doesn't set well with all insurgents along all religious and ethnic


    lines.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    As long as this continues so does the resistance. I haven't been


    converted

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    to Laffertism but he sounds like he gets it. I hate the Neo-cons, war
    mongers.

    That's rich... the time-worn 'kids dying by playing w/ unexploded
    ordinance' story.

    Here's a news flash for you: there were more explosives in Iraq
    before we got there than after, and kids in Iraq were dying in great
    numbers before we got there, and had a large probability of dying a
    hostile death before we got there. In the short term, there may be
    innocent children dying that perhaps wouldn't have had we not invaded,
    but... the long term prospects for the country as a whole are much
    rosier than before.

    Here's an another news flash. Cluster bombs were not supposed to be used
    since they learned the lesson from the first Bush family war. They denied
    cluster bombs were being used until they got caught red handed. Cluster
    bombs were used in suburbs of Baghdad. After children were documented
    getting blown apart by playing with them, the military came clean and said
    they wouldn't use them again, after broken promises from the last time.
    Cluster bombs are different. They are very small little munitions just right
    size for kids to play with. So, yes there were tons of stuff in Iraq but no
    cluster bombs. These are especially grevious little child killers. There
    were cluster bombs in the south left over from the killing fields, but
    mostly out in the desert away from cities and children.

    Rosier then before? Which war are you following?

    If I had to guess, I'd say we're following the same war. I'm not
    getting my info from the media (mainstream or otherwise), though. I
    still have many friends who are either in Iraq or who are still in
    very close contact with folks in Iraq.

    For those who thought the war in Iraq should've been a cakewalk, or
    that what we're seeing now represents some sort of 'failure', well,
    those folks have a VERY distorted, VERY incorrect understanding of
    warfare. I can't imagine what folks thought would be required, but if
    you think we should've, or could've, been in and out by now, you're
    very uneducated about the conduct of war.

    For those who don't think we're winning the war in Iraq (or the war on
    terrorism), well, be patient... these things take time.

    Scott
    (not a neocon, not a warmonger, just a retired Army officer with a
    background in operational planning at the division/corps level)

  2. antoineg said:

    Look - I'm no fan of Bin Laden. However, I am smart enough to know
    that this is not Global Politco-Theater 3000, "Bush vs. Bin Laden: CAGE
    MATCH!!!!"

    Thank you for that description. It is the most succinct summation of US
    foreign policy I've seen, with the possible exception of the theme song
    from "Team America".

    If you haven't seen "Team America", do.

    --

    --------------------

    Remove CLOTHES to reply

  3. TritonRider said:
    Quoted message said:

    From: Steven Bornfeld [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    Check those laws, esp. those in Ohio and Louisiana.

    Steve

    Steve I'd say that those laws at least in part were the response to the fact
    that they expected to have Gay Mariage rammed down their throats. Reaction -
    overeaction, and so it goes.
    When Vt. aproved Civil Unions there was some noise and another vote, but it
    was NOT a huge nationwide issue. When the Supreme Court here in Ma. declared
    that marriage was legal due to OUR constitution that didn't have to blow up
    either. The most of the rest of the country thinks we're off the deep end
    anyway. What triggered the HUGE backlash was the activists screaming that they
    were going nationwide now.
    Extremism breeds extremism. They had to have EVERYTHING now, they and we, got
    nothing. Even worse than nothing.
    Pure stupidity IMO.
    Bill C

    I think I understand what you're saying here.
    In my opinion, there are two issues involved, in this instance in
    conflict with each other.
    On the one hand, there are normal civil rights for homosexuals. The
    religious right presents these as "special rights" since there are no
    specific laws defending the rights of heterosexuals. This is, of course
    true. But I think a good case could be made that since homosexuals
    historically have been singled out for discrimination in housing, in the
    workplace, etc., that the fundamental right to life, liberty and the
    pursuit of happiness has not applied to gays.
    On the other hand, marriage is not only a social institution, it is
    also a religious sacrament. So laws defining marriage in heterosexual
    terms can be seen as protection of religious rights, ie: protecting the
    sacrament.
    Personally, it would be easier for me to believe this is the true
    motivation of the religious right if it were to support the guarantee of
    basic rights, including rights regarding the workplace, employee
    benefits for dependents, rights of survivorship and inheritance, etc.
    So the battle for gay marriage is cast in terms that both sides can
    view as being an abrogation of their own agenda. For me, this means
    that probably the use of the work "marriage" in federal statute should
    not be used. If basic rights associated with the workplace, inheritance
    etc. were guaranteed to legal partners, then the dispute could be
    viewed as a civil rights issue and not a religious issue. Opposition to
    rights for domestic partners and their families could then be seen for
    the bigotry it is, without clouding the issue with religion.
    BTW, I don't know that you've heard this, but you appear to me to be in
    basic agreement with Dianne Feinstein and Barney Frank on this issue.
    This is from Friday's NY Times:

    Some Democrats Blame One of Their Own
    By DEAN E. MURPHY

    SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 4 - A year into his job, Mayor Gavin Newsom could
    hardly be more popular. A survey last weekend put his approval rating
    among San Franciscans at 80 percent.

    Polls show that a mainstay of the Democratic mayor's support has been
    his stance on same-sex marriage. But with his party reeling from Senator
    John Kerry's defeat on Tuesday, Mr. Newsom's decision in February to
    open City Hall to thousands of gay weddings has become a subject of
    considerable debate among Democrats.

    Some in the party were suggesting even before the election that Mr.
    Newsom had played into President Bush's game plan by inviting a showdown
    on the divisive same-sex-marriage issue.

    Most of the talk has been behind closed doors. But when Senator Dianne
    Feinstein, a fellow Democrat and Newsom supporter, answered a question
    about the subject at a news conference outside her San Francisco home on
    Wednesday, the prickly discussion spilled into the open.

    "I believe it did energize a very conservative vote," Ms. Feinstein said
    of the same-sex marriages here. "I think it gave them a position to
    rally around. I'm not casting a value judgment. I'm just saying I do
    believe that's what happened."

    "So I think that whole issue has been too much, too fast, too soon,''
    she added. "And people aren't ready for it."

    Kate Kendell, executive director of the National Center for Lesbian
    Rights, who was a witness at the first same-sex marriage at San
    Francisco City Hall, said she received a flurry of angry e-mail messages
    on Thursday from people upset about Ms. Feinstein's public dressing down
    of Mr. Newsom.

    The topic was also raised with Mr. Newsom himself at a news conference
    on Wednesday and when he was a guest on a radio talk show here Thursday
    morning. He said he had no regrets.

    Some of his backers were less restrained. In an interview, Ms. Kendell
    accused Ms. Feinstein of looking for "easy scapegoats."

    "Shame on Senator Feinstein and other Democratic leaders for latching to
    the most facile and shallow of explanations for the results," she said.
    "What Mayor Newsom did really accelerated the conversation and the
    movement, and I will never accept an analysis that says a leader who
    stands for equality and fairness and who has the courage of his
    convictions is doing the wrong thing."

    One openly gay member of Congress, Representative Barney Frank of
    Massachusetts, disagreed. Mr. Frank was opposed to the San Francisco
    weddings from the start and told Mr. Newsom as much before the
    ceremonies began. He urged the mayor to follow the Massachusetts path,
    which involved winning approval for the marriages in court before
    issuing licenses.

    In a telephone interview on Thursday, Mr. Frank said he felt vindicated
    by the election results. In Massachusetts, every state legislator on the
    ballot who supported gay rights won another term. By contrast,
    constitutional amendments against gay marriage won handily in 11 states
    - including Ohio, an important battleground - in large part, Mr. Frank
    said, because of the "spectacle weddings" in San Francisco.

    Mr. Frank said Mr. Newsom had helped to galvanize Mr. Bush's
    conservative supporters in those states by playing into people's fears
    of same-sex weddings.

    Had the Massachusetts approach been followed, he said, "I think there
    would have been some collateral damage'' in the election, but "a lot less.''

    "The thing that agitated people were the mass weddings,'' he said,
    adding, "It was a mistake in San Francisco compounded by people in
    Oregon, New Mexico and New York. What it did was provoke a lot of fears."

    "He created a sense there was chaos,'' Mr. Frank said of Mr. Newsom,
    "rather than give us a chance to show, as we have in Massachusetts, that
    this doesn't mean anything to anyone else."

    Some conservative opponents of same-sex marriages concurred. Though the
    backlash against gay weddings was kick-started by court rulings in
    Massachusetts - and even earlier in Alaska and Hawaii - opposition
    resonated with a much broader group of conservatives after Mr. Newsom
    put San Francisco at the heart of the debate, said Jordan Lorence, a
    lawyer with the Alliance Defense Fund, a Christian group that sued to
    block the marriages here.

    The California Supreme Court eventually declared the 4,000 or so
    weddings invalid, but the images of same-sex couples' embracing in San
    Francisco were permanently etched in the public's mind, Mr. Lorence said.

    "The court decisions have been the triggers, but Mayor Newsom definitely
    accelerated the reaction," Mr. Lorence said. "I think we can get 10 or
    15 more state constitutional amendments in the 2006 and 2008 election
    cycle, and maybe even more, because people feel so strongly about this."

    In a telephone interview, Mr. Newsom acknowledged that he had taken some
    heat from fellow Democrats. But he said the criticism was off the mark.
    Mr. Bush decided to use gay marriage as a political wedge well before
    the weddings in San Francisco, the mayor said, and the issue had already
    been politicized by the court rulings in Massachusetts.

    Mr. Newsom offered no apologies.

    "If you think something is right,'' he said, "you have a moral
    obligation to act.''

    Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company | Home | Privacy Policy |
    Search | Corrections | RSS | Help |

    --
    Mark & Steven Bornfeld DDS
    http://www.dentaltwins.com
    Brooklyn, NY
    718-258-5001

  4. "Scott Hendricks" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    "Scott Hendricks" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    "Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    > The latest independent survey taken through all the cities of Iraq,


    put

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    the

    Quoted message said:

    > death toll of Iraqis in the war at 300,000. That's a big number.


    Much

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    bigger

    Quoted message said:

    > then I would of thought. This was done by going to all the cities


    and

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > talking to Iraqis. According to them the largest percentage was


    women

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    and

    Quoted message said:

    > children. Also children continue to die from playing with unspent


    cluster

    Quoted message said:

    > bombs that they pick up as toys to bring home and show mama. I'm


    sure

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    that

    Quoted message said:

    > doesn't set well with all insurgents along all religious and ethnic


    lines.

    Quoted message said:

    > As long as this continues so does the resistance. I haven't been


    converted

    Quoted message said:

    > to Laffertism but he sounds like he gets it. I hate the Neo-cons,


    war

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > mongers.

    That's rich... the time-worn 'kids dying by playing w/ unexploded
    ordinance' story.

    Here's a news flash for you: there were more explosives in Iraq
    before we got there than after, and kids in Iraq were dying in great
    numbers before we got there, and had a large probability of dying a
    hostile death before we got there. In the short term, there may be
    innocent children dying that perhaps wouldn't have had we not invaded,
    but... the long term prospects for the country as a whole are much
    rosier than before.

    Here's an another news flash. Cluster bombs were not supposed to be used
    since they learned the lesson from the first Bush family war. They


    denied

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    cluster bombs were being used until they got caught red handed. Cluster
    bombs were used in suburbs of Baghdad. After children were documented
    getting blown apart by playing with them, the military came clean and


    said

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    they wouldn't use them again, after broken promises from the last time.
    Cluster bombs are different. They are very small little munitions just


    right

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    size for kids to play with. So, yes there were tons of stuff in Iraq but


    no

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    cluster bombs. These are especially grevious little child killers. There
    were cluster bombs in the south left over from the killing fields, but
    mostly out in the desert away from cities and children.

    Rosier then before? Which war are you following?

    If I had to guess, I'd say we're following the same war. I'm not
    getting my info from the media (mainstream or otherwise), though. I
    still have many friends who are either in Iraq or who are still in
    very close contact with folks in Iraq.

    For those who thought the war in Iraq should've been a cakewalk, or
    that what we're seeing now represents some sort of 'failure', well,
    those folks have a VERY distorted, VERY incorrect understanding of
    warfare. I can't imagine what folks thought would be required, but if
    you think we should've, or could've, been in and out by now, you're
    very uneducated about the conduct of war.

    Cakewalk was what Bush and company thought. I never thought so, neither did
    I approve of the war to start with. Afghanstan was one thing, and I was
    behind that one until they screwed it up. I was never for Iraq war. That
    baby was dead on delivery. I always felt that if we went into Iraq that we
    would get stuck there like Vietnam and I had friends in Vietnam, quite a
    few. We are not losing servicemen like Vietnam, but the cost is huge, state
    of the art technology costs us dearly and over the long run, that's a
    tremendous drain on our economy. I don't see the war effort is going that
    well and to single out one case in point just recently, 40-50 newly trained
    Iraqis soldiers were executed when they were ambushed. They had (no)
    protection. How absurd and sad is that? Insurgents have a free run and
    strike anywhere they want, even the green zone the lastest market blast
    proves. Contractors are afraid to work there as the monthly beheadings scare
    them off. The oil pipeline has been blow up more times then you can count.
    Iraqis don't want our brand of democracy, and they are all divided along
    religious and ethnic lines. They not only kill Americans but they kill each
    other and just about anything else that walks or crawls. Sounds like the
    denizens of hell, blackhole for radical gihadist ideology that runs rampant
    among warlords of different factions. Considering it will be years and years
    to even get the basics of civilization to take root, as a country that is
    footing 90 percent of the cost, I simply don't want to be a party to it. But
    if I stop paying taxes they will put me in jail. I have no choice.

    Quoted message said:


    For those who don't think we're winning the war in Iraq (or the war on
    terrorism), well, be patient... these things take time.

    I would rather see the 300 billion go into jobs and healthcare, schools,
    parks, roads and bridges. Death Valley has a hole in the ceiling that needs
    repair. It's not bad and I could repair that in one weekend. According to
    park officals that repair cannot be funded until 2009. And what about our
    borders. 5 million illegals are projected to stream over for 2005. One could
    be a terrorist. Why not build security into our borders, mexico and canada,
    and how about our ports? I think the money would be more wisely spent here
    at home instead of pouring it into a sand pit in Iraq.

    They might as well just take the 300 billion dollars and throw it out by the
    side of the road somewhere.

    As for Iraq, let the dead take care of the dead. Saddam was doing a good job
    of that.

  5. Scott Hendricks said:

    Here's a news flash for you: there were more explosives in Iraq
    before we got there than after,

    You mean, we went there without any weapons and used theirs against them?

    Quoted message said:

    and kids in Iraq were dying in great
    numbers before we got there and had a large probability of dying a
    hostile death before we got there.

    Perhaps so, but it appears that kids in Iraq are dying in even greater
    numbers now.

  6. "Scott Hendricks" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Rosier

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6403689/

  7. Sierraman said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Rosier

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6403689/

    Or http://www.salite.ch/rosier.htm

    --
    Firefox Web Browser - Rediscover the web - http://getffox.com/
    Thunderbird E-mail and Newsgroups - http://gettbird.com/

  8. "Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    They might as well just take the 300 billion dollars and throw it out by
    the
    side of the road somewhere.


    Well made points. Could they drop that money on Rt. 83 on the CT/MA border
    this morning, about 11:30?

  9. "B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    They might as well just take the 300 billion dollars and throw it out by
    the
    side of the road somewhere.


    Well made points. Could they drop that money on Rt. 83 on the CT/MA


    border

    Quoted message said:

    this morning, about 11:30?

    Would you give it to WADA?

  10. "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:zUpjd.14395$233.5152@okepread05...

    Quoted message said:


    "B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    They might as well just take the 300 billion dollars and throw it out
    by
    the
    side of the road somewhere.


    Well made points. Could they drop that money on Rt. 83 on the CT/MA


    border

    Quoted message said:

    this morning, about 11:30?

    Would you give it to WADA?

    Hell no!

  11. "B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:zUpjd.14395$233.5152@okepread05...

    Quoted message said:


    "B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    Quoted message said:

    > They might as well just take the 300 billion dollars and throw it out
    > by
    > the
    > side of the road somewhere.
    >
    Well made points. Could they drop that money on Rt. 83 on the CT/MA


    border

    Quoted message said:

    this morning, about 11:30?

    Would you give it to WADA?

    Hell no!

    If I found it, there were be a huge (CRY) throughout the land about the
    money being poured into Womens cycling! First thing of course would be a
    (match race) on Mt. Evans between Jeanson, Faby, Joane S. and Brandli. :-)

  12. "Robert Chung" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Sierraman said:


    The latest independent survey taken through all the cities of Iraq, put
    the death toll of Iraqis in the war at 300,000. That's a big number.
    Much bigger then I would of thought. This was done by going to all the
    cities and talking to Iraqis. According to them the largest percentage
    was women and children.

    You're probably talking about the Lancet study that got released last
    week. It was based on a cluster sample technique, and they give estimates
    for "excess" deaths that are lower than your number for all Iraqi deaths,
    but it seems to fit the general outlines of what you're talking about.
    http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol364/iss9446/early_online_publication

    Can you post that? Too much [censored] to fill out to register.

  13. Sierraman said:
    Quoted message said:


    You're probably talking about the Lancet study that got released last
    week. It was based on a cluster sample technique, and they give
    estimates for "excess" deaths that are lower than your number for all
    Iraqi deaths, but it seems to fit the general outlines of what you're
    talking about.


    http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol364/iss9446/early_online_publication

    Quoted message said:


    Can you post that? Too much [censored] to fill out to register.

    I'll post the summary, but not the entire paper. If you really want to see
    the entire paper, it's worth it to register.

    ------

    Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq:
    cluster sample survey

    Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert
    Burnham

    Summary

    Background. In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the
    UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period
    of 14.6 months before the invasion with the 17.8 months after it.

    Methods. A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during
    September 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about
    household composition, births, and deaths since January 2002. In those
    households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent
    deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated
    with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17.8
    months after the invasion with the 14.6-month period preceding it.

    Findings. The risk of death was estimated to be 2.5-fold (95%CI 1.6 - 4.2)
    higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period.
    Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city
    of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1.5-fold
    (1.1 - 2.3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths
    than expected (8000 - 194000) happened after the invasion outside of
    Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major
    causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction,
    cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the
    invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were
    widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to
    coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces
    were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period
    after the invasion was 58 times higher (95%CI 8.1 - 419) than in the
    period before the war.

    Interpretation. Making conservative assumptions, we think that about
    100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of
    Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes
    from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown
    that collection of public-health information is possible even during
    periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and
    should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.

    -------

    I'm guessing that someone who hasn't read the paper and who doesn't
    understand the methodological issues will be along shortly to criticize
    the findings.

  14. Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    I'm guessing that someone who hasn't read the paper and who doesn't
    understand the methodological issues will be along shortly to criticize
    the findings.

    That night be me. My question would be what provision was made, or percentage
    allowed for flat out lying? That seems to have become a common occurence with
    exit polling, or at least is being cited as such. I would think that the
    anti-US factions would lie their asses off to paint a picture worse than it is.
    I would be concerned how to handle this factor.
    Bill C

  15. TritonRider said:
    Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    I'm guessing that someone who hasn't read the paper and who doesn't
    understand the methodological issues will be along shortly to criticize
    the findings.


    That night be me. My question would be what provision was made, or
    percentage allowed for flat out lying? That seems to have become a
    common occurence with exit polling, or at least is being cited as such.
    I would think that the anti-US factions would lie their asses off to
    paint a picture worse than it is. I would be concerned how to handle
    this factor. Bill C

    Death certificates. They had the same worries you do, so they wanted to
    make sure people weren't fabricating deaths. They sub-sampled some of the
    households where a death was reported for proof, and they only asked for
    the certificates at the end of the interview, after the deaths had already
    been reported. In four-fifths of the households where death certificates
    were asked for, it was immediately produced. In the cases where the
    certificate wasn't immediately produced, the household respondent gave a
    good reason (like, the death was very recent so no certificate had yet
    been obtained, or the death certificate was locked away and the head of
    the household who wasn't around right then had the key).

  16. Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    Death certificates. They had the same worries you do, so they wanted to
    make sure people weren't fabricating deaths. They sub-sampled some of the
    households where a death was reported for proof, and they only asked for
    the certificates at the end of the interview, after the deaths had already
    been reported. In four-fifths of the households where death certificates
    were asked for, it was immediately produced. In the cases where the
    certificate wasn't immediately produced, the household respondent gave a
    good reason (like, the death was very recent so no certificate had yet
    been obtained, or the death certificate was locked away and the head of
    the household who wasn't around right then had the key).

    I'm still not sure how that keeps the hospitals which were, as far as I know,
    socialized medicine centers under Hussein from faking certificates, but that's
    stretching things on my part. I really don't think that there is any way to get
    good numbers here because everyone being surveyed is emotionally and
    politically involved.
    We are having big problems with military types we thought were good to, but
    are turning out to be part of the opposition.
    The huge jump between prior estimates, and these make me really wonder about
    them that's all.
    Bill C

  17. TritonRider said:


    I'm still not sure how that keeps the hospitals which were, as far as
    I know, socialized medicine centers under Hussein from faking
    certificates, but that's stretching things on my part.

    So you're thinking that hospitals issued tens of thousands of phony or
    post-dated death certificates up to three years in advance because they
    knew that in 2004 some researchers would put together a cluster sample
    survey? Whoa, that's what I'd call clever. I'd be very worried about an
    enemy that could see that far into the future.

  18. Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    So you're thinking that hospitals issued tens of thousands of phony or
    post-dated death certificates up to three years in advance because they
    knew that in 2004 some researchers would put together a cluster sample
    survey? Whoa, that's what I'd call clever. I'd be very worried about an
    enemy that could see that far into the future.

    I was just questioning the newly issued ones. I don't see why this isn't a
    valid concern given how much voter fraud we have in a much less emotionally
    charged environment.
    Bill C

  19. "TritonRider" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    So you're thinking that hospitals issued tens of thousands of phony or
    post-dated death certificates up to three years in advance because they
    knew that in 2004 some researchers would put together a cluster sample
    survey? Whoa, that's what I'd call clever. I'd be very worried about an
    enemy that could see that far into the future.

    I was just questioning the newly issued ones. I don't see why this isn't


    a

    Quoted message said:

    valid concern given how much voter fraud we have in a much less


    emotionally

    Quoted message said:

    charged environment.
    Bill C

    I wouldn't trust the military to do this survey and considering some of the
    most bizarre underground videos I have seen on the net of engagements and
    current conversations of troops, I wouldn't doubt it at all about those
    numbers being very high and very factual. I think they want us to believe
    that engagements are precise and that there is a minimal loss of life, but
    from everything I have read and seen from various websites over the last
    year including Arab sites, everything becomes a bit clearer as to what's
    happening. Everything I have seen seems more like a lack of patience from
    frustration with their targets. There was even a video on one of network
    feeds of a group of Iraqis civilians walking down the street very carefree
    like on the way to church or something and the guy asked his commander if he
    should take them out with a air strike and without even asking for details,
    the commander just quickly said to take them out, like I'm tired don't
    bother me, just blow um away!

    Sick, sick, sick, I have seen some pretty sick stuff like that on one video
    of troops taking target practice of some poor old Iraqis man walking down
    the street. After they shoot him about a million times they give the big
    Hooya, like out of the movies. I think someday down the road we will find
    out more about the indiscriminate killings of Iraqis just like in Vietnam.

  20. TritonRider said:
    Quoted message said:

    From: "Robert Chung" [email hidden]

    Quoted message said:

    So you're thinking that hospitals issued tens of thousands of phony or
    post-dated death certificates up to three years in advance because they
    knew that in 2004 some researchers would put together a cluster sample
    survey? Whoa, that's what I'd call clever. I'd be very worried about an
    enemy that could see that far into the future.

    I was just questioning the newly issued ones. I don't see why this
    isn't a valid concern given how much voter fraud we have in a much less
    emotionally charged environment.
    Bill C

    Bill, it's good to be sceptical. It's even better to be realistically
    sceptical rather than to toss up objections simply for the sake of
    objecting.

    Think about what you're saying. This is a sample survey across all of Iraq
    of about 1000 households. How many falsified death certificates would
    these hospitals have had to create and spread out across the country in
    order to leave a measurable trail for some future survey to find? Plus,
    you can't walk in and say "Okay, who died," make a little tally mark on a
    sheet of paper and then move on to the next house. Interviewers are
    trained not to tip the purpose of the study--in most instances the
    interviewers don't even know all the purposes of the study so there's
    nothing to tip. In any event simply knowing the number of deaths doesn't
    let you calculate the things that appear in that study. For that study you
    actually need moderately detailed household compositional information. A
    common way to collect and organize the data (I don't know if they did it
    this way, but it's reasonably common among the retrospective household
    surveys I've used) is to show a timeline and ask the respondent to mark
    down who was a member of the household at the beginning of the timeline,
    their name, age, sex, relationship to the household (son, daughter,
    parent, sibling, cousin, friend) and other characteristics, and then to
    continue the line all the way to the end if they're still a household
    member. Births and people who've moved in during the period have a line
    that starts part way through, deaths and out-migrants have lines that end
    part way through. If a line ends before the end of the timeline, you ask
    whether that person moved out, or died; if he died, you ask what the cause
    of death was. If the timeline stretches left and right across the page you
    can look down at any date and see how many people were in the household
    and who they were. If, as you suggest, death certificates were being
    ginned up, the families would have to be coached to create fake names,
    ages, sexes, dates, relationships, and causes of death consistent with a
    death certificate that no one may ever ask for--and this would have to be
    done in hundreds of thousands of households across the country so that the
    sample survey would be able to find them.

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