Roger Zoul said:Harold Groot wrote:
:: The other thing this does is point out the difficulties in assessing
:: the risks from obesity. The CDC originally estimated 400k annual
:: deaths, and when there was great outcry about that number they
:: dropped it to 365k. Now here it is only a few months later and they
:: drop it to 26k. Quite a change in a short time.
Quoted message said:This is a valid reason for not rushing off to define a new "normal".
From what I understand a lot of this is "old data". For that matter,
I recall seeing articles 20 years ago that claimed the Metropolitan
Life "normal" figures (about 50 years old at that time IIRC) were no
longer representational based on then-current actuarial tables. This
just seems a confirmation on that point.
There appears to be some difficulty in assigning ROOT CAUSES to
various deaths as shown by the swing in the above figures for "death
caused by obesity". However, there is very little difficulty about
getting "expected life" data. Insurance companies do this on a
routine basis, it's part of how they determine the premiums on a
policy. People get age and weight recorded at physical exams and this
is compared to how old they are when they die. If you have a sample of
hundreds of thousands of people, the random events average out and you
get very reliable figures for average expected life.
The problem is, it can be very difficult to change something once it
has been established - and the "normal weight" tables got very well
established. But many things have changed about our society in the
past 70 or so years. Typical amounts of physical activity, how many
indulge in risky behavior (smoking, etc.), nutritional values of
typical diets, availability of emergency medical treatment (for heart
attacks, strokes and other things), the list is long. Some push
things one way, some push things the other way, some have no overall
impact on expected lifespan. But the "normal weight" tables remained
unchanged for a long, long time.
It all seems rather similar to the way the established medical
community reacted with horror to the idea of a low carb diet. They
didn't want to look at studies, they just repeated the dogma they had
been taught - that all that fat would lead to heart attacks, etc.
Even when there were many studies showing that their old way of
thinking was wrong, they continued to attack low carb diets with
falsehoods like that up until a few years ago. These days their
acceptance of low carb diets is still most grudging, and still loaded
with cautionary words that they "don't know if it's safe in the long
run", but they at least seem to have admitted that they don't have any
data to indicate it ISN'T safe.
Change comes slowly.