TdF: July 2, 2005 - 19 Km TT

go on then i'm on a nightshift, its 4.20am i'm as bored as hell so i'll start the debate off - fabian cancerella. ok done it last year over shorter trip but just won the swiss national tt over longer so on form. ok ok it was only the swiss...

nope i've changed my mind. Ivan Basso will win the opening stage and wear yellow all the way to Memphis er i mean Paris! get down to the bookies now!

sopas said:

TdF: July 2, 2005 - 19 Km TT

Unlike the short 5-8 km prologues of previous years, 19 Km are enough to make the difference and get 1 or 2 minutes on your opponents. Who do you think is going to win this "strange long prologue" next week? Who will be in yellow at the end of the day?

19km is not long enough to make that big gap,1 or 2 minutes.
The prologue of 2000TOur is about 17KM. the following is the result.
1. David Millar (GBr) Cofidis 19.03.11 (51.968 km/h)
2. Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 0.02
3. Laurent Jalabert (Fra) ONCE-Deutsche Bank 0.13
4. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom-ARD 0.14
5. David Canada (Spa) ONCE-Deutsche Bank 0.16
6. Alex Zulle (Swi) Banesto 0.20
7. Vjatceslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal Service 0.21
8. Simone Borgheresi (Ita) Mercatone Uno 0.27
9. Tyler Hamilton (USA) US Postal Service 0.33
10. Erik Dekker (Ned) Rabobank 0.36

My vote goes to Mick Rogers. 🙂

yace said:

19km is not long enough to make that big gap,1 or 2 minutes.
The prologue of 2000TOur is about 17KM. the following is the result.
1. David Millar (GBr) Cofidis 19.03.11 (51.968 km/h)
2. Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 0.02
3. Laurent Jalabert (Fra) ONCE-Deutsche Bank 0.13
4. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom-ARD 0.14
5. David Canada (Spa) ONCE-Deutsche Bank 0.16
6. Alex Zulle (Swi) Banesto 0.20
7. Vjatceslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal Service 0.21
8. Simone Borgheresi (Ita) Mercatone Uno 0.27
9. Tyler Hamilton (USA) US Postal Service 0.33
10. Erik Dekker (Ned) Rabobank 0.36

But if we compare LA to his 10 main rivals in GC gaps are as follows:
1. Lance Armstrong 0.00
2. Jan Ullrich 0.12
3. Joseba Beloki 0.38
4. Christophe Moreau 1.01
5. Roberto Heras 1.29
6. Richard Virenque 1.29
7. Santiago Botero 0.58
8. Fernando Escartin 1.30
9. Francisco Mancebo 1.16
10. Daniele Nardello 0.52

Armstrong, Ullrich, mcgee, cancellara will all be close. I doubt that there will be bigger time gaps then 30 sec between them.

My vote from a mental point: armstrong needs to get the yellow there. Silence all his critics and the (hopes of) contenders.......

guncha said:

But if we compare LA to his 10 main rivals in GC gaps are as follows:
1. Lance Armstrong 0.00
2. Jan Ullrich 0.12
3. Joseba Beloki 0.38
4. Christophe Moreau 1.01
5. Roberto Heras 1.29
6. Richard Virenque 1.29
7. Santiago Botero 0.58
8. Fernando Escartin 1.30
9. Francisco Mancebo 1.16
10. Daniele Nardello 0.52

MJtje said:

Armstrong, Ullrich, McGee, Cancellara will all be close. I doubt that there will be bigger time gaps then 30 sec between them.

I am going for the same first four. Also agree with the 30 sec gap between them.

patch70 said:

I am going for the same first four. Also agree with the 30 sec gap between them.

Can't argue with those guys, though I'd thow my personal fav Rogers into the mix. Landis has TT'd long and short quite well this year. I'd figure him in the top 10. Maybe a bit short for Botero... Basso seems a wild card to me, but I wouldn't put him in the top five.

tcklyde said:

Can't argue with those guys, though I'd thow my personal fav Rogers into the mix. Landis has TT'd long and short quite well this year. I'd figure him in the top 10. Maybe a bit short for Botero... Basso seems a wild card to me, but I wouldn't put him in the top five.

well am at the end of another night shift so've had time to mull it allll over. think youre right on basso bein more of a wild card for that, the more hilly time trial towards the end of the tour might be more up his street? read he's been practisin his TT-ing all off season and it showed in the giro, but were not discussing that are we....? yet...

1. Lance
2. Landis
3.Cancellara
4. Ullrich
5. Rogers
6. Mcgee
7. Leipheimer

the gaps will be single digits, no more than 20 seconds will separate the top 5

1. Ullrich
2. Rogers
3. McGee
4. Cancellara
5. Armstrong
179. Tugaboat (Tyler Hamilton's doped up dog)

I will put it out there and say Ulle will finish 30 seconds ahead of 5th place..... Word has it from a source that he has been training for this stage specifically to gain an intial advantage….. in addition Armstrong fell off his TT bike on the weekend.... nerves maybe ?

hombredesubaru said:

1. Lance
2. Landis
3.Cancellara
4. Ullrich
5. Rogers
6. Mcgee
7. Leipheimer

the gaps will be single digits, no more than 20 seconds will separate the top 5

I do so hope you're right . If Ullrich's on form there is no reason why he shouldn't win. On his day he's the best time trialist there is. It is vitally important that Jan puts some time into Lance on the opening day. As someone who really wants Jan to win I am more worried about the TTT. The T-Mobile team cannot allow to lose a load of time to Discovery as in previous years (lets hope that Discovery don't have the same luck here as in 2003 when they were the only team to go round without the rain). I am also unhappy that there is one less ITT this year, which helps Armstrong rather than Ullrich.

[font=Verdana]The rain factor has not been talked about much but it was like an act of god last year where everyone got it except USPS ! T-mobile have a good TTT squad and besides this year you still have that ridiculous system of only losing factored time dependent on your placing.... e.g. 10 seconds for 2nd, 20 seconds 3rd...... so it should keep everyone bunched together…….
[/font]

alibat said:

I do so hope you're right . If Ullrich's on form there is no reason why he shouldn't win. On his day he's the best time trialist there is. It is vitally important that Jan puts some time into Lance on the opening day. As someone who really wants Jan to win I am more worried about the TTT. The T-Mobile team cannot allow to lose a load of time to Discovery as in previous years (lets hope that Discovery don't have the same luck here as in 2003 when they were the only team to go round without the rain). I am also unhappy that there is one less ITT this year, which helps Armstrong rather than Ullrich.

Oke 2 things:

1) USPS started the TTT last year in pouring rain.......you probably forgot that😎

2) That is the most stupid rule ever.........(Btw a rule to supposedly make the tour less boring!). I think that a team needs to get the time they deserve and if a mayo loses 3 min toooooooo bad!

whiteboytrash said:

[font=Verdana]The rain factor has not been talked about much but it was like an act of god last year where everyone got it except USPS ! T-mobile have a good TTT squad and besides this year you still have that ridiculous system of only losing factored time dependent on your placing.... e.g. 10 seconds for 2nd, 20 seconds 3rd...... so it should keep everyone bunched together…….
[/font]

MJtje said:

Oke 2 things:

2) That is the most stupid rule ever.........(Btw a rule to supposedly make the tour less boring!). I think that a team needs to get the time they deserve and if a mayo loses 3 min toooooooo bad!

I agree.... there is no point in having the event if actual time is not actual time......

....as for rain it stopped just after they started !

whiteboytrash said:

[font=Verdana]The rain factor has not been talked about much but it was like an act of god last year where everyone got it except USPS ! T-mobile have a good TTT squad and besides this year you still have that ridiculous system of only losing factored time dependent on your placing.... e.g. 10 seconds for 2nd, 20 seconds 3rd...... so it should keep everyone bunched together…….
[/font]

It's only Monday but there is a fair chance for rain this weekend, particularly out where the TT is taking place. Could definitely throw a wrench in the works, but lets see...who crashed in a long TT in TdF 2003, Ullrich? right!
Im sure Jan has been training and as omens go, bee or wasp or whatever, Lance crashed and has a black eye. Not cool. Bad omen.

Aye postal got lucky with the weather last year. WRT T-mobile Klöden had a puncture and they obviously waited for him.. They very well could have finished second. CSC again would also have gone alot better if their riders could have stayed on their bikes... As it was
1 US Postal presented by Berry Floor 1.12.03 (53.71 km/h)
2 Phonak Hearing Systems 1.07
3 Illes Balears-Banesto Santander 1.15
4 T-Mobile Team 1.19
5 Team CSC 1.46

From cyclingnews' report http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=results/stage4

Quoted post said:

As a double-barreled low pressure area blew across northern France Wednesday afternoon, the rain poured, the wind blew and the black clouds of the alleged curse of the sixth Tour de France victory swirled above the USPS-Berry Floor team bus in Arras, but when their nine riders rolled out of Cambrai bound for Arras 64.5km away, it soon seemed like Lance Armstrong's team was blessed. The rain and wind let up and the Postal Blue Train rolled across the flat wheat fields like a TGV towards its second consecutive Tour de France Team Time Trial win.

sopas said:

Unlike the short 5-8 km prologues of previous years, 19 Km are enough to make the difference and get 1 or 2 minutes on your opponents.

Another difference from this long prologue is that the successful 1st week sprinters may not get any chance of getting into the yellow jersey.

I'll cross my fingers and go:

1. Ulle
2. LA
3. McGee
4. Cancellara
5. Rogers
6. Leipheimer