Is It Already Over For Some????????

I believe much over three minutes deficit to Armstrong going into mountain stages, will not be recoverable. Armstrong has shown in previous tours that he can climb. I also believe Mayo is really out of contention for yellow already. Heras may also be, depending on his losses in team time trial. I hate to say it but it looks like the real question is who will finish in the 2,3, and 4 slots in the general classification?

snyper0311 said:

After a couple days of racing, some of my "dark-horse" riders are already three minutes down. Mayo, Savilla, Heras are all out somewhere between 2:45 and 3:05 out. Some of the others on my favorite team are only two minutes down.

My question is, is that too much time to make up? I know that most of the riders listed above are climbers and will make up time in the mountains, but does Lance look that good? Are some of the others looking as strong as I think they look? So far, it's shaping up to be another "wait and see" tour. I hope we start to see some pressure form others. :eek: :eek: :eek:

YES. Look at history. Who in the last six years has made significant time on Lance in the mountains, that would then not lose double that time in a ITT at the end of the tour. He is unbeatable at this point in the tour already, unless he beats himself or has a misshap.

The Tour's not over until the Tour is over. The percentages don't look great right now for some, but strange things happen. The lessons of history say that there is a lot of time left. Who can forget Ullrich's blow up in 1998 on the way to Les Deux Alpes, for example?

Some questions have been answered, many more remain.

snyper0311 said:

After a couple days of racing, some of my "dark-horse" riders are already three minutes down. Mayo, Savilla, Heras are all out somewhere between 2:45 and 3:05 out. Some of the others on my favorite team are only two minutes down.

My question is, is that too much time to make up? I know that most of the riders listed above are climbers and will make up time in the mountains, but does Lance look that good? Are some of the others looking as strong as I think they look? So far, it's shaping up to be another "wait and see" tour. I hope we start to see some pressure form others. :eek: :eek: :eek:

I think the only ones with a chance to overtake LA are JU, Basso, and Vino. Also you have to figure in at least one surprise(like Kloden of last year).

tcklyde said:

Who can forget Ullrich's blow up in 1998 on the way to Les Deux Alpes, for example?

Yeahh, or when Indurain bonked in 1996 on the way to Les Arcs?

Well, it probably is over for a few of the boys. Chances are the ones who did not do well in the ITT and who get trounced in the TTT will be demoted to chasing stage wins. I am really curious to see if some of the 'other' teams (à la CSC) have improved as much as some say in the TTTing abilities... and whether someone can put some time into Lance and the Discovery boys.

Yes, I am clutching at anything to make the GC race at least somewhat interesting...🙄

It ain't over yet for Karpets. I'm interested if he can bust into the top 5 this year. He's better positioned than most of the so called contenders. I don't see him as a possible winner on GC, but I'm thinking ahead on him and Popovych for future Tours. It's interesting to see how they stack up. The difference is that Karpets is team leader, and Popo is in a supporting role. So naturally, Popo is not going to show his potential as transparently as Karpets. Still, I find this Tour interesting in that regard, plus how dominant Lance turns out to be.

In 2003, Lance barely squeaked by. It seems to have scared him. 2004 showed him in devastatingly good form, having started training with a vengeance not long after the end of the Tour. It seems that 2005 finds him the same, although he wasn't even sure he'd ride until February. Judging the whole Tour by the first TT might be a mistake, but when you post the kind of crushing form Lance did, it's hard not to. I'd like to see just how much he dominates this year. It's one thing to try to win with your best in a TT. It's quite another when it seems that you could have won, but choose the most advantageous position for the overall GC win in Paris, which is fractionally shy of the yellow jersey in the first TT, and the pressure of the daily media blitz. He's right there where he wants to be.

As for counting people out, I sure hope we don't have a huge crash like we did last year. That's sour grapes for too many people who have a lot invested in this Tour, particularly peaking of elusive best form. I'd hate to see that go to waste again.

[font=Verdana]The Tour is far from over and I think Lance has peaked way to early.... in addition the training you didn't do in February catches up with you in weeks 2 and 3... Ullrich knows this..... I think Vino will be a good show later on.... repeated attacks will sap Armstrong and his team’s strength... do they chase or do they wait with Ullrich.... this tour is far from over mark my words… you will see some rampant [/font][font=Verdana]petulance [/font][font=Verdana]when we get to the mountains and there are no more races after the Tour for Lance to pay people back at…. No gifts !
[/font]

gntlmn said:

It ain't over yet for Karpets. I'm interested if he can bust into the top 5 this year. He's better positioned than most of the so called contenders. I don't see him as a possible winner on GC, but I'm thinking ahead on him and Popovych for future Tours. It's interesting to see how they stack up. The difference is that Karpets is team leader, and Popo is in a supporting role. So naturally, Popo is not going to show his potential as transparently as Karpets. Still, I find this Tour interesting in that regard, plus how dominant Lance turns out to be.

In 2003, Lance barely squeaked by. It seems to have scared him. 2004 showed him in devastatingly good form, having started training with a vengeance not long after the end of the Tour. It seems that 2005 finds him the same, although he wasn't even sure he'd ride until February. Judging the whole Tour by the first TT might be a mistake, but when you post the kind of crushing form Lance did, it's hard not to. I'd like to see just how much he dominates this year. It's one thing to try to win with your best in a TT. It's quite another when it seems that you could have won, but choose the most advantageous position for the overall GC win in Paris, which is fractionally shy of the yellow jersey in the first TT, and the pressure of the daily media blitz. He's right there where he wants to be.

As for counting people out, I sure hope we don't have a huge crash like we did last year. That's sour grapes for too many people who have a lot invested in this Tour, particularly peaking of elusive best form. I'd hate to see that go to waste again.

Oke was it that LA was that good..........or was it that the others didn't live to the expectations. LA own words: 'I tell you what I felt good, but the other who were supposed to be good weren't good'! (interview NOS last year)

Clearly LA was less explosive in 2004..........but he has stated he trained this year more in the mountains.......haha and still did such a TT! Scary😄

gntlmn said:

It ain't over yet for Karpets. I'm interested if he can bust into the top 5 this year. He's better positioned than most of the so called contenders. I don't see him as a possible winner on GC, but I'm thinking ahead on him and Popovych for future Tours. It's interesting to see how they stack up. The difference is that Karpets is team leader, and Popo is in a supporting role. So naturally, Popo is not going to show his potential as transparently as Karpets. Still, I find this Tour interesting in that regard, plus how dominant Lance turns out to be.

In 2003, Lance barely squeaked by. It seems to have scared him. 2004 showed him in devastatingly good form, having started training with a vengeance not long after the end of the Tour. It seems that 2005 finds him the same, although he wasn't even sure he'd ride until February. Judging the whole Tour by the first TT might be a mistake, but when you post the kind of crushing form Lance did, it's hard not to. I'd like to see just how much he dominates this year. It's one thing to try to win with your best in a TT. It's quite another when it seems that you could have won, but choose the most advantageous position for the overall GC win in Paris, which is fractionally shy of the yellow jersey in the first TT, and the pressure of the daily media blitz. He's right there where he wants to be.

As for counting people out, I sure hope we don't have a huge crash like we did last year. That's sour grapes for too many people who have a lot invested in this Tour, particularly peaking of elusive best form. I'd hate to see that go to waste again.

snyper0311 said:

After a couple days of racing, some of my "dark-horse" riders are already three minutes down. Mayo, Savilla, Heras are all out somewhere between 2:45 and 3:05 out. Some of the others on my favorite team are only two minutes down.

My question is, is that too much time to make up?...

Unfortunately, a two minute lead on LA going in to the mountains will be too much to make up.

Yes, but there we have the great one, who could put three and four minutes into supposedly good climbers. Which begs the question How many minutes would Armstrong need for advantage over the best Pantani (1999?) to maintain yellow. Four minutes were not enough for Ullrich in 1998, even with an ITT still on the schedule following the mountains.

tcklyde said:

The Tour's not over until the Tour is over. The percentages don't look great right now for some, but strange things happen. The lessons of history say that there is a lot of time left. Who can forget Ullrich's blow up in 1998 on the way to Les Deux Alpes, for example?

Some questions have been answered, many more remain.