Tour 2006 predictions.

I think the biggest prediction for the 2006 Tour is whether OLN will even show it. Based on their non-existant cycling schedule to date it doesn't appear there will be any cycling coverage until le Tour imposes some contractual obligations on them in July. Hollywood Reporter had the outline of their contract with ASO some time ago but I can't remember what obligations it imposed. But even if they are required to do a daily show it could be a 20 minute show (not counting commercials for bull riding) with 15 minutes of cheap US based studio talk with 5 minutes of coverage.

They will also blame the poor ratings on lack of interest and conveniently forget they convinced Dishnetwork to drop them by overcharging for the NHL (which barely pulls any more ratings than cycling) and losing 1/3 of their viewers right off the bat.

At any rate if Ullrich doesn't win this year he's an even bigger waste of talent than I thought.

Ullie
Basso
The Floyd
Leipheimer
Evans
Valverde
Vino
Popo
Cunego
Mancebo

dm69 said:

And where does cadel evans fit on your list? 😠 . Surely he will place higher than hincapie probably leipheimer, popovych and landis will all struggle to keep with cadel in only his 2nd tour attempt. Tyler Hamilton has no hope of winning let alone getting top 10.

My Order

Ullrich (ger)
Basso (ita)
Valverde (esp)
Vinokourov (kaz)
Evans (aus)
Kloden (ger)
Mancebo (esp)
Landis (usa)
Popovych (rus)
Cunego (ita)

...I think I got the nationalities right :p

Cadel will break his collarbone,,,again,,,for the fourth time/

lwedge said:

What a character Thomas Voeckler.
He is a very good rider, could be a great rider. In my opinion, he would surprise people but he needs a team, guidance and self-confidence.

Lw

haven't I mentioned that he is french?

bobke said:

Cadel will break his collarbone,,,again,,,for the fourth time/

Cadel won't break anything, he will ride a great tour....

Kloden's view on things:

"CN: Armstrong is now gone. How do you think that will change the shape of the race? AKloden: I think the Tour is open for everybody. For Jan, for Basso, for Vinokourov. I think that many riders can win the Tour, including those from Discovery Channel too.

CN: You are strong, Jan is strong and Michael Rogers is also a good rider. Because of that, does a more open Tour suit T-Mobile? AK: Yes, for sure. But we will be dedicated to Jan. We will have one captain, no more than that. It will be the same as Discovery last year, working for Armstrong. And US Postal before that. I think that's the best way to do it; to have just one leader, with everyone else riding for him."

musette said:

On Courcheval, Ace was originally intended by Bruyneel earlier that day to be second-to-last in defense of LA (before Popo and after Hincapie). However, DC reported that Ace "called an audible" and requested that he switch with Hincapie. Bruyneel must not have been happy with that. :p

DC's PR person wrote about the Courcheval stage on paceline:

"Armstrong said it was Johan who set the order that was team rode in - ... Pavel, Triki and Benjamin set a fierce tempo ... and then Chechu and Paolo took over at the start of the climb to Courchevel. Next up was Jose, who, as Lance stated, "called an audible," switching with George after saying he wasn't feeling 100%. George then set it up for Popovych, who was Lance's last teammate on the climb."

LA observed: "We never go into the day with a true order of guys for the last climb. We start the stage and see how guys are doing and see how guys are feeling and on the road, for example, we finish the Roselend, we do the descent, I asked Johan, I said 'Ok, Johan, what do you want to do? What order do you want to go in?' He talks to each and every guy and says 'how do you feel?' and then he sets the order. It was complicated because Popo crashed on the descent and we weren't sure how he was. George told us he was very good; Chechu said he was good, so Johan set the order and we went with that and it worked out. We even saw sort of an audible on the final climb because Azevedo didn't feel so good and so he went to George and swapped places with George on his own, which is fine too."

So, Popo had crashed earlier in the stage -- bad enough to require Bruyneel to no longer use his Subaru. Chechu was only "good". People were sort of counting on Ace to be among the last rocket boosters for LA on Courcheval. Somewhere along the descent of the penultimate climb, Ace had apparently told Bruyneel he was feeling well enough that Bruyneel placed him after Hincapie, who had improved his climbing and said he was feeling "very good". Yet Ace had not been placed as the final teammate, even though Popo had crashed earlier in the stage and it was not clear to Bruyneel/LA how reliable Popo would be.

musette said:

DC's PR person wrote about the Courcheval stage on paceline:

"Armstrong said it was Johan who set the order that was team rode in - ... Pavel, Triki and Benjamin set a fierce tempo ... and then Chechu and Paolo took over at the start of the climb to Courchevel. Next up was Jose, who, as Lance stated, "called an audible," switching with George after saying he wasn't feeling 100%. George then set it up for Popovych, who was Lance's last teammate on the climb."

LA observed: "We never go into the day with a true order of guys for the last climb. We start the stage and see how guys are doing and see how guys are feeling and on the road, for example, we finish the Roselend, we do the descent, I asked Johan, I said 'Ok, Johan, what do you want to do? What order do you want to go in?' He talks to each and every guy and says 'how do you feel?' and then he sets the order. It was complicated because Popo crashed on the descent and we weren't sure how he was. George told us he was very good; Chechu said he was good, so Johan set the order and we went with that and it worked out. We even saw sort of an audible on the final climb because Azevedo didn't feel so good and so he went to George and swapped places with George on his own, which is fine too."

So, Popo had crashed earlier in the stage -- bad enough to require Bruyneel to no longer use his Subaru. Chechu was only "good". People were sort of counting on Ace to be among the last rocket boosters for LA on Courcheval. Somewhere along the descent of the penultimate climb, Ace had apparently told Bruyneel he was feeling well enough that Bruyneel placed him after Hincapie, who had improved his climbing and said he was feeling "very good". Yet Ace had not been placed as the final teammate, even though Popo had crashed earlier in the stage and it was not clear to Bruyneel/LA how reliable Popo would be.

Yes all true, but Popo was laughing and smiling at the team car after the crash on TV to show he was going good...an important factor since after the stage a couple of days before Lances team got shelled.

Chechu had a chest cold and rode like [censored] the whole Tour and felt very bad about it.
Ace was invisible.
Think about it, when George took over there were only twenty riders left.
He took over and it was he that droped Vino and Ullrich!
Then he peeled off and Popo sprinted like a madman and dropped Basso and Levi.
I was actually standing there watching it happen as it turns out.
Lance pulls over, looks to the side and sees only Chickenlegs, Valverde and Mancebo and pulls up to Rasmussen and starts yelling to ride hard..there was a lot of negative racing for the last ten km that day with no one pulling through for Lance.
I think Lance was yelling something like if you want to win or podium go hard to Rasmussen.

musette said:

DC's PR person wrote about the Courcheval stage on paceline:

"Armstrong said it was Johan who set the order that was team rode in - ... Pavel, Triki and Benjamin set a fierce tempo ... and then Chechu and Paolo took over at the start of the climb to Courchevel. Next up was Jose, who, as Lance stated, "called an audible," switching with George after saying he wasn't feeling 100%. George then set it up for Popovych, who was Lance's last teammate on the climb."

LA observed: "We never go into the day with a true order of guys for the last climb. We start the stage and see how guys are doing and see how guys are feeling and on the road, for example, we finish the Roselend, we do the descent, I asked Johan, I said 'Ok, Johan, what do you want to do? What order do you want to go in?' He talks to each and every guy and says 'how do you feel?' and then he sets the order. It was complicated because Popo crashed on the descent and we weren't sure how he was. George told us he was very good; Chechu said he was good, so Johan set the order and we went with that and it worked out. We even saw sort of an audible on the final climb because Azevedo didn't feel so good and so he went to George and swapped places with George on his own, which is fine too."

So, Popo had crashed earlier in the stage -- bad enough to require Bruyneel to no longer use his Subaru. Chechu was only "good". People were sort of counting on Ace to be among the last rocket boosters for LA on Courcheval. Somewhere along the descent of the penultimate climb, Ace had apparently told Bruyneel he was feeling well enough that Bruyneel placed him after Hincapie, who had improved his climbing and said he was feeling "very good". Yet Ace had not been placed as the final teammate, even though Popo had crashed earlier in the stage and it was not clear to Bruyneel/LA how reliable Popo would be.

Musette, that is most excellent analysis, especially this early in the morning. Popo is great but clearly Ace wasn't the Ace of 2004

Also, I wonder who was designated to assist LA (if that was necessary for a Category 2 climb) for the Col de la Sclucht (spelling) part of Stage 8? 😉 It was not Savoldelli, who tried to pull back the last attacks while LA had a teammate, because Savoldelli somewhere stated (I can't find it) that he was not the person designated for that day to protect LA most directly.

I wonder if one of those riders might have been Beltran, because Bruyneel was originally not going to renew Beltran's contract for 2006 and it was only LA suggesting that Bruyneel do so, according to Beltran's own admission, that he is staying with the team. You would think Bruyneel would have wanted to use Beltran for the Giro 06 (which he is doing), and would have offered to renew Beltran. There could have been a problem with Beltran (apart from his crashing out of the Tour 05 early) on one of the stages.

musette said:

Also, I wonder who was designated to assist LA (if that was necessary for a Category 2 climb) for the Col de la Sclucht (spelling) part of Stage 8? 😉 It was not Savoldelli, who tried to pull back the last attacks while LA had a teammate, because Savoldelli somewhere stated (I can't find it) that he was not the person designated for that day to protect LA most directly.

I wonder if one of those riders might have been Beltran, because Bruyneel was originally not going to renew Beltran's contract for 2006 and it was only LA suggesting that Bruyneel do so, according to Beltran's own admission, that he is staying with the team. You would think Bruyneel would have wanted to use Beltran for the Giro 06 (which he is doing), and would have offered to renew Beltran. There could have been a problem with Beltran (apart from his crashing out of the Tour 05 early) on one of the stages.

not sure who was assigned but nobody showed up for work. I would have hated to be a DC teammate at dinner that night. Getting screamed at by Lance after getting dropped can't be great for the digestion.

musette said:

Also, I wonder who was designated to assist LA (if that was necessary for a Category 2 climb) for the Col de la Sclucht (spelling) part of Stage 8? 😉 It was not Savoldelli, who tried to pull back the last attacks while LA had a teammate, because Savoldelli somewhere stated (I can't find it) that he was not the person designated for that day to protect LA most directly.

Savoldelli's statement was reported in cyclingnews:

"2005 Giro d'Italia winner Paolo Savoldelli was there for a while on the final ascent and told Alessandra Di Stefano of RAI-TV, "We were tired when we got to the base of the final climb. We tried to get rid of (maillot jaune) before but it just didn't happen. On the final climb, I closed a gap on Vinokourov and could have stayed there but Armstrong told me to back off. I wasn't even one of the riders who were supposed to stay with (Armstrong) today."

Which begs the question which cyclists were supposed to be doing that? 😉

8 – Selon vous, qui va gagner le prochain Tour de France ?



Mon favori pour le Tour de France, c’est Jan Ullrich.

Flecha rules 😎

Gilbert Simoni is talking up a win on L'Alpe D'Huez...... good chance me thinks..... I think he will win the Giro ahead of Basso....

"Don't forget my top goal is the Giro," he said. "Depending on how much strength I have, but that's the idea. At the Tour, I already have my goal - to win the stage at Alpe d'Huez."

velonews.com9450.0.htmlOpen ↗

whiteboytrash said:

Gilbert Simoni is talking up a win on L'Alpe D'Huez...... good chance me thinks..... I think he will win the Giro ahead of Basso....

"Don't forget my top goal is the Giro," he said. "Depending on how much strength I have, but that's the idea. At the Tour, I already have my goal - to win the stage at Alpe d'Huez."

velonews.com9450.0.htmlOpen ↗

Simoni is back to talking up his performances in July again. Too funny. Can he win a climb like that? Of course. Will he? doubtful. Would it be cool to see him show up in July with climbing legs? Legs at all? Yes.

1st Jan

2nd Ivan

3rd Big George

Green Jersey

Boom Boom
O'Grady
Zabel

I think Discovery are formulating a little plan to gate crash the party in Paris. He may not be a rated climber but he is a class act with years of tdf racing behind him.

[font=Times New Roman] [/font]

I may have to change my predictions since the rumors out of Italy are saying Rujano may not even ride for Selle at all this year and start his season with Quick-Step. That would completely suck, and if I was his new employer I would be wondering if I had just signed up a big problem (in a little package).

oscar744 said:

1st Jan

2nd Ivan

3rd Big George

Green Jersey

Boom Boom
O'Grady
Zabel

I think Discovery are formulating a little plan to gate crash the party in Paris. He may not be a rated climber but he is a class act with years of tdf racing behind him.

i think big george is wishful thinking (not for me), there are probably ten guys who can destroy him, popovych was ahead of him last year and they were both riding as domestiques and popovych didn't gain any time sitting on pereiro's wheel

i like the guy, but i dont think he has a chance, i would rather see him try to take out a big classic like paris roubaix

moviekindoflife said:

i think big george is wishful thinking (not for me), there are probably ten guys who can destroy him, popovych was ahead of him last year and they were both riding as domestiques and popovych didn't gain any time sitting on pereiro's wheel

i like the guy, but i dont think he has a chance, i would rather see him try to take out a big classic like paris roubaix

I agree, but as Big George said in his Velonews interview...I got more notice and press for a stage win if the TdF--admittedly a big deal, than I ever would have for winning Paris Roubaix which is arguably as hard or harder than any stage in the Tour. He got a day named after him, thousands of interviews internationally. I mean George himself said I have won maybe not THE biggest but some pretty big races. Nothing touched what happened compared to the press and fame of winning that stage--I would add while Lance came up behind.

Read: this is a career and PR move folks...my sponsorship deals and post racing life will do far far better for trying to be "the heroic Lance ex-domestique and now replacement and struggling in the Tour" than if I won 3 Paris Roubaixs.
He is totally right BTW like it or not. Being face recognized on OLN, interviewed by Bob Roll, on the American juggernaut team, he will get tons more press than Levi or Floyd no matter where they end up. Thats my TYour de France prediction.

bobke said:

Read: this is a career and PR move folks...my sponsorship deals and post racing life will do far far better for trying to be "the heroic Lance ex-domestique and now replacement and struggling in the Tour" than if I won 3 Paris Roubaixs.

Exactly! The audience of the English-speaking world will be far more interested in George's attempt than Popo's or Savoldelli's.

patch70 said:

Exactly! The audience of the English-speaking world will be far more interested in George's attempt than Popo's or Savoldelli's.

Yes but he won't win...