In Jason O'Rourke said:
That's not surprising to me - there is a danger is using a multipler of winning times at each
distance. The 50m winner is the best at the sprint. But most people don't get that much speed, so
their ratio will be shorter.
Ok. Let's try those USMS statistics again, but only look at the longer events this time. This is the
2002 USMS LCM nationals, men ages 45-49, in case I didn't mention before.
Event Winning Time 200m 2:00.89 400m 4:21.13 800m 9:14.77 1500m 18:46.29
If you plot these four points, they're not quite linear. As you might expect, the times for the
longer distances are a little slower than a simple proportion would indicate. Adding the point (0,0)
to the set to make 5 points, I took the liberty of fitting the set with a quadratic instead of a
line. The fit was pretty good.
t = M0 + M1*x + M2*x^2 M0 = -3.146 <-- essentially zero, to this accuracy. M1 = 0.627 M2 = 8.401e-5
Projecting backward along the curve, a winning distance swimmer "should" be capable of doing 50m in
about 28.22 seconds. So the ratio of 400m/ 50m "should" be about 9.25 for a distance swimmer.
Now let's take that pseudo-information and apply it to the original poster. He said he could do 50m
in 33.00 seconds. If he was training as a true distance swimmer, and if the above analysis was
really significant, we'd expect him to be capable of doing 400m in 5:05. In fact, his personal best
is pretty close to that.
Given all the uncertainties, that's not bad agreement.
Ross