let's not rush to judgement quite yet

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

Could be. Part of the problem is the Pro Cycling has last all
credibility to the point that some people presume everyone is guilty,
some going even so far as to say that the enforcement of anti-doping
rules is the problem. When your sport has gotten to that point, it's
hard for people not to rush to judgement.

Preston

email hidden said:

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have
been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain
his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges.
let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

Could be. Part of the problem is the Pro Cycling has last all
credibility to the point that some people presume everyone is guilty,
some going even so far as to say that the enforcement of anti-doping
rules is the problem. When your sport has gotten to that point, it's
hard for people not to rush to judgement.

Preston

Part of that is brought on by the organization itself, which half the time
doesn't understand the results of the tests given to it or what could
affect the test results.

--
Bob in CT

Quoted message said:

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

Could be. Part of the problem is the Pro Cycling has last all
credibility to the point that some people presume everyone is guilty,
some going even so far as to say that the enforcement of anti-doping
rules is the problem. When your sport has gotten to that point, it's
hard for people not to rush to judgement.

Preston

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Nancy2 said:

Quoted message said:

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Nah! Here is the calculation.
A Chance of winning without "help" =0.0%

B Chance of winning with "help" = some positive percentage

C Chance of getting caught = some positive percentage

As long as B-C is some positive number it will be greater than A

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

If that's the case, then it was an interesting coincidence that Floyd
dropped the "hip problem" bombshell to the media on the rest day. Right
around stage 17. Hmm, stage 17 is the stage where they found the high
level of testosterone, right?

Are cortisone and testosterone (chemically) identical?

Quoted message said:

If that's the case, then it was an interesting coincidence that Floyd
dropped the "hip problem" bombshell to the media on the rest day. Right
around stage 17. Hmm, stage 17 is the stage where they found the high
level of testosterone, right?

unless i'm mistaken and fwiw, he dropped the "bombshell" on the first
rest day (or before), july 10, right before stage 9.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2006/jul06/jul10news3

h

gds said:

Nancy2 said:

Quoted message said:

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Nah! Here is the calculation.
A Chance of winning without "help" =0.0%

B Chance of winning with "help" = some positive percentage

C Chance of getting caught = some positive percentage

As long as B-C is some positive number it will be greater than A

Additional factors in this calculation:

Tyler got a 2 year suspension. Landis will be out several months due to
the surgery -- and probably sub-par after that -- regardless of any
suspension. So, if he got a 2 year suspension, it really wouldn't be 2
years.

Even if Landis returns from surgery, he may be back in domestique
territory [I don't think Beloki has been on many podiums since his
return from his crash, but I may be wrong about that.]

Lifetime monetary value of being a TdF winner: $X,000,000
Lifetime monetary value of finishing 11th in the TdF: $X

This calculation creates a terrible temptation.

I so hope I'm wrong, and Landis is cleared!

gds said:

Nancy2 said:

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Nah! Here is the calculation.
A Chance of winning without "help" =0.0%

B Chance of winning with "help" = some positive percentage

C Chance of getting caught = some positive percentage

As long as B-C is some positive number it will be greater than A

Unfortunately, B-C has no sensible meaning.
This might still be wrong but seems more fitting:

B*(1-C)*w - C(1-B)*c - B*C*c

Where
w = profit of winning
c = loss of getting caught, without having won

Additionally there is the assumption that when getting caught in yellow
you lose the price money and the additional losses are equal to c.
Oh, and that B and C are independent.

Though one could still decide that even if the above is negative, that
it's worth taking the risk. After all, this what millions are doing
everyday with assurance policies, gambling etc.

Nancy2 said:

Quoted message said:

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

Could be. Part of the problem is the Pro Cycling has last all
credibility to the point that some people presume everyone is guilty,
some going even so far as to say that the enforcement of anti-doping
rules is the problem. When your sport has gotten to that point, it's
hard for people not to rush to judgement.

Preston

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Actually, evidence is that there is a lots of doping. They just try to
stay below the detection limit for for stuff like testosterone that we
all naturally have.

I suggest you read the book "Breaking the Chain".

Quoted message said:

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

If that's the case, then it was an interesting coincidence that Floyd
dropped the "hip problem" bombshell to the media on the rest day. Right
around stage 17. Hmm, stage 17 is the stage where they found the high
level of testosterone, right?

FYI, needing a hip replacement, as I currently do, does not mean you
can't do stuff. I am perfectly comfortable riding a bike, walking or
sitting for short periods. What I can't do is stand for a lengthy
period or sit without moving much for a lengthy period.

It's perfectly understandable that Landis could ride with a hip that
needed replacing much more easily than he could stand or walk or sit.

N.

in message <[email hidden]>, dwjones45

(') said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have
been the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the
pain his hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping
charges. let's hope it is nothing more than that.

Yet again, it's not high levels of testosterone, it's a 'pas naturelle'
ratio between testosterone and epitestosterone. So unless he went on one
hell of a bender on Wednesday night, he's got questions to answer.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; This email may contain confidential or otherwise privileged
;; information, though, quite frankly, if you're not the intended
;; recipient and you've got nothing better to do than read other
;; folks' emails then I'm glad to have brightened up your sad little
;; life a tiny bit.

dwjones45 said:

i had heard that the high levels of testosterone could very well have been
the result from a cortisone shot given to help floyd deal with the pain his
hip. if that is the case then he will cleared of any doping charges. let's
hope it is nothing more than that.

Do we know he got a cortisone shot that day? I hadn't heard that news...

Thanks,
~bob

Bob Dole said:

gds said:

Nancy2 said:

The guy would have to be completely nuts to try doping on this Tour,
and I don't think anyone has ever said that Landis is crazy. Nobody
would count on 72 bottles of water flushing all the bad stuff out.

N.

Nah! Here is the calculation.
A Chance of winning without "help" =0.0%

B Chance of winning with "help" = some positive percentage

C Chance of getting caught = some positive percentage

As long as B-C is some positive number it will be greater than A

Additional factors in this calculation:

Tyler got a 2 year suspension. Landis will be out several months due to
the surgery -- and probably sub-par after that -- regardless of any
suspension. So, if he got a 2 year suspension, it really wouldn't be 2
years.

Even if Landis returns from surgery, he may be back in domestique
territory [I don't think Beloki has been on many podiums since his
return from his crash, but I may be wrong about that.]

Lifetime monetary value of being a TdF winner: $X,000,000
Lifetime monetary value of finishing 11th in the TdF: $X

This calculation creates a terrible temptation.

I so hope I'm wrong, and Landis is cleared!

It would effectively be a four-year suspension though, wouldn't it?
Two year suspension from racing, then another two years that he
wouldn't be allowed on a ProTour team. That's a potential
career-ender, right there.

~bob