Weekend of Truth

Ryan Cousineau said:

Part I, the TT, has certainly been information-packed.

So, were the TTists saving themselves because the next two days are
stupidly hard mountain stages, or did Rasmussen really finish right
there with them in their own event? Because he's still wearing yellow,
and there's mountains between here and the next TT.

So can Chicken make more time in the next two days on the hard-TTing
riders behind him?

Last year Floyd proved that 7 minutes wasn't too much to make up. Now
Mayo can try to prove the same thing! But TTing worse than Rasmussen was
a bad start.

I think it's reasonable to guess that the top five are now the really
credible GC threats. It will take something spectacular for Kaschechkin
et al to start making up the 4+ minutes they face against Rasmussen, but
I think 3:30 is possible for Levi if it all comes right.

Of course, first he has to outride Cadel Evans, Klodi, his own teammate
who's sitting 3rd in GC!

Five riders. I think you can confine yourself to the top five now, but
really, the truth will come out by the end of Monday: someone's gonna
blow up in the mountains, maybe someone will go epic (though I bet the
peloton has learned from last year), and the result will be that the
favourites will be at the rest day knowing that there's just one more
set of mountains, and one more TT.

--
Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

I would think, Ryan, that if his head can handle all the extraneous
[censored] going on around him, that he has this one sewn up.

I'm the eternal optimist though and would love to see Vinokourov take
some mega time the next two days

--
Davey
-
"Tolerance is the virtue of men who no longer believe in anything."
-G.K. Chesterton

in message <[email hidden]>, Ryan Cousineau

(') said:

Part I, the TT, has certainly been information-packed.

So, were the TTists saving themselves because the next two days are
stupidly hard mountain stages, or did Rasmussen really finish right
there with them in their own event? Because he's still wearing yellow,
and there's mountains between here and the next TT.

So can Chicken make more time in the next two days on the hard-TTing
riders behind him?

This was a very odd TT because of heavy rain in the middle of the day.
Vino - who made the best time of all - tiptoed down the Cat 4 descent.
Rasmussen hit it later when it was much dryer. Yes, Rasmussen rode the TT
of his life, but the conditions helped him, as did the course. He's
unlikely to have help from either on the second TT, so he needs to grab at
least another couple of minutes in the mountains.

Quoted message said:

I think it's reasonable to guess that the top five are now the really
credible GC threats. It will take something spectacular for Kaschechkin
et al to start making up the 4+ minutes they face against Rasmussen, but
I think 3:30 is possible for Levi if it all comes right.

Oh, come on. Leipheimer wasn't a credible threat a fortnight ago, and he
isn't a credible threat now. If Disco want anything to take home this year
they need to throw their weight behind Contador.

But the team most likely to have a rider on the podium in Paris is still
Astana. In fact, I think Astana are more likely to have two men on the
podium than Disco (or Caisse d'Epargne or Ag2R or Euskaltel - Euskadi or
Saunier Duval or, sadly, CSC) are to have one. It's even beginning to look
possible that we might see Astana 1,2,3 on the podium in Paris, which
would surely make some kind of history.

Quoted message said:

Of course, first he has to outride Cadel Evans, Klodi, his own teammate
who's sitting 3rd in GC!

Five riders. I think you can confine yourself to the top five now, but
really, the truth will come out by the end of Monday: someone's gonna
blow up in the mountains, maybe someone will go epic (though I bet the
peloton has learned from last year), and the result will be that the
favourites will be at the rest day knowing that there's just one more
set of mountains, and one more TT.

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin, Evans,
Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador won't get
support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give him the
support he'd need. Leipheimer doesn't have the class. Sastre, who's the
one I'd most like to have seen win, hasn't yet shown he's got the killer
edge. Astarloza similarly. Vino, meantime, is back on form, and as
unpredictable and dangerous as ever.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Due to financial constraints, the light at the end of the tunnel
has been switched off.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>, Ryan Cousineau

(') said:

Part I, the TT, has certainly been information-packed.

So, were the TTists saving themselves because the next two days are
stupidly hard mountain stages, or did Rasmussen really finish right
there with them in their own event? Because he's still wearing yellow,
and there's mountains between here and the next TT.

So can Chicken make more time in the next two days on the hard-TTing
riders behind him?

This was a very odd TT because of heavy rain in the middle of the day.
Vino - who made the best time of all - tiptoed down the Cat 4 descent.
Rasmussen hit it later when it was much dryer. Yes, Rasmussen rode the TT
of his life, but the conditions helped him, as did the course. He's
unlikely to have help from either on the second TT, so he needs to grab at
least another couple of minutes in the mountains.

Quoted message said:

I think it's reasonable to guess that the top five are now the really
credible GC threats. It will take something spectacular for Kaschechkin
et al to start making up the 4+ minutes they face against Rasmussen, but
I think 3:30 is possible for Levi if it all comes right.

Oh, come on. Leipheimer wasn't a credible threat a fortnight ago, and he
isn't a credible threat now. If Disco want anything to take home this year
they need to throw their weight behind Contador.

After an indifferent TT result (if you can call top-10 indifferent)
Leipheimer is 3:37 back. That's not even one bad stage, that's one bad
climb. or given Rasmussen's tendencies, maybe the more-likely one bad TT.

As much as anyone likes to talk about killer instinct, and whatever
else, what we've got now is a GC where all of the riders have survived
several days in the mountains, a TT, and a prologue, and not had any
other bad luck like being on the wrong side of a peloton split (bye bye
Alejandro...). They're all strong contendors. Even Chicken.

Quoted message said:

But the team most likely to have a rider on the podium in Paris is still
Astana. In fact, I think Astana are more likely to have two men on the
podium than Disco (or Caisse d'Epargne or Ag2R or Euskaltel - Euskadi or
Saunier Duval or, sadly, CSC) are to have one. It's even beginning to look
possible that we might see Astana 1,2,3 on the podium in Paris, which
would surely make some kind of history.

Yeah, it would make people recall that Gewiss podium sweep at the Fleche
Wallone in 1994.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Five riders. I think you can confine yourself to the top five now, but
really, the truth will come out by the end of Monday: someone's gonna
blow up in the mountains, maybe someone will go epic (though I bet the
peloton has learned from last year), and the result will be that the
favourites will be at the rest day knowing that there's just one more
set of mountains, and one more TT.

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin, Evans,
Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador won't get
support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give him the
support he'd need. Leipheimer doesn't have the class. Sastre, who's the
one I'd most like to have seen win, hasn't yet shown he's got the killer
edge. Astarloza similarly. Vino, meantime, is back on form, and as
unpredictable and dangerous as ever.

I don't think class or panache is the big problem for GC hopefuls now.
The big problem is the clock. Vino is unpredictable, dangerous, and
maybe my favourite rider. He is also 5:10 back, and surely as marked a
man as anyone in the peloton, possibly including Rasmussen (after all,
you expect Chicken to be there in the mountains; it's just a question of
how much you can take out of him in the TT...).

The race is utterly unpredictable at this point. Rasmussen must carve
some more time out of the top five or so GC hopefuls to have a chance at
victory. I hope that Astana and Disco are savvy enough to use their
multiple high-GC riders in a tactically interesting way. It would be
lovely to see some rider (I nominate Mayo) take a ridiculous Landisian
flyer over the mountains. Let's hope so.

But it's gonna be epic.

--
Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

Ryan Cousineau said:

multiple high-GC riders in a tactically interesting way. It would be
lovely to see some rider (I nominate Mayo) take a ridiculous Landisian
flyer over the mountains. Let's hope so.

Dumbass -

If that happens, it won't be Mayo.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

to give him the
support he'd need. Leipheimer doesn't have the class. Sastre, who's the
one I'd most like to have seen win, hasn't yet shown he's got the killer
edge.

I am still waiting for Sastre to hoist his colors.
Could be in August I will be waiting yet.

--
Michael Press

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Ryan Cousineau said:

The race is utterly unpredictable at this point.

Agreed. That is why I am going with

1. Kloden
2. Conquistadore
3. Sastre

--
Michael Press

Simon Brooke said:

This was a very odd TT because of heavy rain in the middle of the day.
Vino - who made the best time of all - tiptoed down the Cat 4 descent.
Rasmussen hit it later when it was much dryer. Yes, Rasmussen rode the TT
of his life, but the conditions helped him, as did the course.

I'l agree that the course was in his favour, but the conditions where
the same for everyone up there but Vinokurov and Kashekin. Rasmussen,
Evans and Contador all had wet roads/rain on the dangerrous first
decent and relativly dry road after the cat4 climb.

Quoted message said:

He's
unlikely to have help from either on the second TT, so he needs to grab at
least another couple of minutes in the mountains.

He's got enough time to Contador, Leipheimer, Kasheckin, Sastre,
Astarloza and Vinokurov. He needs to gain a minutte or two to Evans and
Kloeden in order to stay ahead after the second TT..

Quoted message said:

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin, Evans,
Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador won't get
support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give him the
support he'd need. Leipheimer doesn't have the class. Sastre, who's the
one I'd most like to have seen win, hasn't yet shown he's got the killer
edge. Astarloza similarly. Vino, meantime, is back on form, and as
unpredictable and dangerous as ever.

I'd say the top 5 will be among Rasmussen, Kloeden, Evans, Contador
and Sastre. Among those i predict that Evans is the most likly to go all
the way and Sastre the least likly to hit the podium. Kloeden could
still get tangled up in teamorders, and Kachekin most certainly will,
especially after Vinokruv's great TT - Remember Astana is all about
Vinokurov, he's got the money and the Protour licence, Marc Biver is
just another Vino workbee. Regarding Leipheimer, he just doesn't what
it takes to crack the top 5.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Ryan Cousineau said:

The race is utterly unpredictable at this point.

Agreed. That is why I am going with

1. Kloden
2. Conquistadore
3. Sastre

Don't count VINO out yet

--
Davey Crockett - No 4Q to Reply

On Sun, 22 Jul 2007 04:38:48 GMT, Michael Press <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin, Evans,
Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador won't get
support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give him the
support he'd need.

You are out on a limb there. Bruyneel is not a total
[censored], and Contador is very, very strong. Hincapie and
Leipheimer will do what they are told. Against all odds
Disco has a team.

Good call and proved by Stage 14. And Popo certainly earned his
salary, eh?

On Jul 21, 11:23 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

especially after Vinokruv's great TT - Remember Astana is all about
Vinokurov, he's got the money and the Protour licence, Marc Biver is
just another Vino workbee. Regarding Leipheimer, he just doesn't what
it takes to crack the top 5.

Dumbass -

Why would you say that? He's gotten 6th before in the past.

The thing he's not really capable of is winning (unless he got very,
very lucky).

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

Kurgan Gringioni said:

On Jul 21, 11:23 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>
wrote:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

especially after Vinokruv's great TT - Remember Astana is all about
Vinokurov, he's got the money and the Protour licence, Marc Biver is
just another Vino workbee. Regarding Leipheimer, he just doesn't what
it takes to crack the top 5.

Dumbass -

Quoted message said:

Why would you say that? He's gotten 6th before in the past.

Being 6th doesen't mean you can get 5th or better, just ask Iban Mayo.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

in message <[email hidden]>,

Michael Press (') said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin,
Evans, Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador
won't get support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give
him the support he'd need.

You are out on a limb there. Bruyneel is not a total
[censored], and Contador is very, very strong. Hincapie and
Leipheimer will do what they are told. Against all odds
Disco has a team.

Yeah, well, I was deliberately going out on a limb; it's fun to nail your
colours to the mast and see how many stay flying. Vino's cooked today -
I've been saying for a fortnight that you can't ignore him, but, at
34'12", you can now. That does, however, make Astana's tactics easier, and
so I'll hold on to my prediction that they'll finish on the podium. Unless
he crashes tomorrow or Wednesday, Rasmussen will finish on the podium.

And the last place on the podium? Yup, probably Contador.

Has anyone noticed that the irrepressible Mauricio Soler is just 12th on
GC, with two mountain stages to go? No, I'm not suggesting he can finish
on the podium, but for a rookie from a wildcard team that's one heck of a
performance! And offering water to the Chicken on the last climb was
style.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; Our modern industrial economy takes a mountain covered with trees,
;; lakes, running streams and transforms it into a mountain of junk,
;; garbage, slime pits, and debris. -- Edward Abbey

Simon Brooke said:

Has anyone noticed that the irrepressible Mauricio Soler is just 12th on
GC, with two mountain stages to go? No, I'm not suggesting he can finish
on the podium, but for a rookie from a wildcard team that's one heck of a
performance! And offering water to the Chicken on the last climb was
style.

Was that courtesy or gestural trash talking? Liggett seemed to think
it was a courtesy, I was laughing because it looked like he was giving
Ras a razzing. "Here, old man, have a drink. You look tired and it's
a long climb."

R

On Jul 22, 12:31 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Kurgan Gringioni said:

On Jul 21, 11:23 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

especially after Vinokruv's great TT - Remember Astana is all about
Vinokurov, he's got the money and the Protour licence, Marc Biver is
just another Vino workbee. Regarding Leipheimer, he just doesn't what
it takes to crack the top 5.

Quoted message said:

Dumbass -
Why would you say that? He's gotten 6th before in the past.

Being 6th doesen't mean you can get 5th or better, just ask Iban Mayo.

Dumbass -

Ya it does. Look at where he is now.

I'm not a fan of Mr. Gunn either.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

RicodJour said:

Simon Brooke said:

Has anyone noticed that the irrepressible Mauricio Soler is just 12th on
GC, with two mountain stages to go? No, I'm not suggesting he can finish
on the podium, but for a rookie from a wildcard team that's one heck of a
performance! And offering water to the Chicken on the last climb was
style.

Was that courtesy or gestural trash talking? Liggett seemed to think
it was a courtesy, I was laughing because it looked like he was giving
Ras a razzing. "Here, old man, have a drink. You look tired and it's
a long climb."

R

"Hey Gino. If you're going to Suck my Wheel all day, at least give me
"some of your Water"

http://azurservers.com/rbr/water.jpg

--
Davey Crockett - No 4Q to Reply
-
Avoid the Gates of Hell. Use Linux

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Doug Taylor said:

On Sun, 22 Jul 2007 04:38:48 GMT, Michael Press <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Simon Brooke said:

Well, as far as I can see, those five riders are Kloden, Kashechkin, Evans,
Rasmussen, Vinokourov. Not necessarily in that order. Contador won't get
support, and in any case his team isn't strong enough to give him the
support he'd need.

You are out on a limb there. Bruyneel is not a total
[censored], and Contador is very, very strong. Hincapie and
Leipheimer will do what they are told. Against all odds
Disco has a team.

Good call and proved by Stage 14. And Popo certainly earned his
salary, eh?

Yes; he appears to be happy in his job.

--
Michael Press

Kurgan Gringioni said:

On Jul 22, 12:31 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Kurgan Gringioni said:

On Jul 21, 11:23 pm, Morten Reippuert Knudsen<[email hidden]>
wrote:
> especially after Vinokruv's great TT - Remember Astana is all about
> Vinokurov, he's got the money and the Protour licence, Marc Biver is
> just another Vino workbee. Regarding Leipheimer, he just doesn't what
> it takes to crack the top 5.

Quoted message said:

Dumbass -
Why would you say that? He's gotten 6th before in the past.

Being 6th doesen't mean you can get 5th or better, just ask Iban Mayo.

Quoted message said:

Dumbass -

(Unfortynatly i can't titulate you as smartass)

Quoted message said:

Ya it does. Look at where he is now.

Paris isn't due until next sunday, he will slip behind Sastre and
Kloeden.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.

RicodJour schreef:

Quoted message said:

Simon Brooke said:

And offering water to the Chicken on the last climb was style.

it looked like he was giving Ras a razzing. "Here, old man, have a
drink. You look tired and it's a long climb."

"Here, have some water. Can I have the climber's jersey now?"

--
E. Dronkert

In article <[email hidden]>,

Davey Crockett said:

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Ryan Cousineau said:

The race is utterly unpredictable at this point.

Agreed. That is why I am going with

1. Kloden
2. Conquistadore
3. Sastre

Don't count VINO out yet

30 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 34.12

I think it's interesting that both Rasmussen and Contador are leading
other classifications.

In the case of Contador, Young Rider is virtually locked up now. Soler
can't win it, Contador can only lose it.

In the Mountains class, Rasmussen is in a fight to the finish. If he
concentrated on the competition, I think he could easily swat Soler
away. But if he did, it would jeopardize his chances at GC. OTOH, he
could give all for yellow and still lose.

The dilemma may come down to whether second on GC is more valuable than
the spotted jersey.

And who is in second on Young Rider? Soler, the only serious challenger
for the spots.

If nothing else, the rise of these two suggests that a changing of the
guard may arrive in the next year or two, if not this year: it's
conceivable that the MJ and the spots could be won by young riders this
year.

I started digging up the previous winner of both Young Rider and GC.

Clever fans already know that was 1997:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Tour_de_France

Ullrich wins both. And in a nice symmetry, Virenque wins Mountains and
finishes second in GC. And who finished second in Mountains?

Ullrich, of course!

This was also one of what was once supposed to be six straight Zabel
victories in the Points classification. We now know he has won only
five, and possibly fewer than that.

--
Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos