Bike shop business and high oil prices

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

$2.36 a Gallon? Honey, I Shrunk the SUV By Sharon Bernstein,
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

Mario Sanchez really wanted a big, American-made sport
utility vehicle to haul his children around in pride
and safety.

Then he did the math. And bought a Toyota 4Runner.

"It was the price of gas," the 31-year-old North Hills
resident said.

The high cost of gasoline — which averaged $2.36 per gallon
in Los Angeles County on Wednesday — priced him out of the
market for a bigger sport utility vehicle. With six
cylinders instead of eight, the smaller 4Runner could cost
Sanchez as much as $720 per year less than the Chevrolet
Tahoe or GMC Yukon he had wanted to buy.

As gas prices hit new records, there are signs that
motorists may be downsizing — at least a bit.

Sales of the largest SUVs dived last month from the previous
April, according to research firm Autodata Corp., which
tracks sales nationwide: Ford Expeditions dropped 34%,
Lincoln Navigators were down 25%, and Chevrolet Suburbans
drew 21% fewer buyers.

Overall SUV sales continue to climb, up 2.5% last month
over the previous April, largely due to the soaring
popularity of smaller, more fuel-efficient SUVs. Sales of
Saturn's Vue rose 59%, Chevrolet's Blazer jumped 55%, and
Ford's Escape rose 49%.

Car experts say it's too soon to conclude that high gas
prices will cut into sales of the largest SUVs over the long
run. And last month's drop-off might be explained, at least
in part, by a rise in sales in April 2003. But
transportation industry analysts say that if gas prices stay
high, the "bigger is better" mentality could give way to a
thriftier attitude.

"We expect to see a shift from big trucks to little trucks,
and from big cars to little cars," said Ron Tadross, an auto
industry analyst with Banc of America Securities.

--
Mike "Rocket J Squirrel" Elliott 71 VW Type 2 -- the
Wonderbus (AKA the Saunabus in summer) KG6RCR

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying bicycles
for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home and
ride the local bike trails rather than drive to distant
vacation destinations?

Unfortunately, demand for gas is relatively inelastic; as
the price goes up, demand drops very, very little. People
gripe about how much they're paying, but I have yet to see
an article that has shown this has put a dent in the barrels
of oil we're consuming on the highways. Rather, people are
simply spending money on gas that was previously going to
other things.

The best way to get people out of their cars (in America,
anyway) is for gas to be in short supply. Americans don't
like to be inconvenienced... if they have to wait in long
lines, *then* they might find ways to drive less. But gas
prices would probably have to hit some sort of symbolic
figure ($3/gallon? $4?) before people would actually drive a
lot less. They'll claim otherwise, of course, but the
reality is that Americans will forfeit their Starbucks Latte
and new bike fund in order to pay for higher gas prices.

Besides, in real terms, gas prices haven't kept up with
inflation over the years. Gas is either artificially cheap
now or was artificially expensive earlier. Market mechanisms
have been severely corrupted over the years; stable & cheap
oil is a national policy that dictates how our foreign
policy is played out. But, this is very much in jeopardy as
China makes increasing demands upon the world's raw
materials, and their economic power has the potential to
rearrange the playing field.

Now what was the question? Oh yes, how have higher gas
prices affected my business. So far, no noticeable affect.
People gripe about it, but few are talking about giving up
driving in favor of bike commuting. Unfortunately, this
being an election year, the practicality of bike commuting
has the potential of becoming lost in the rhetoric... bike
commuting is being seen more as a political statement 'round
these parts than as a reaction to the expense of driving.

--Mike Jacoubowsky Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying bicycles
for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home and
ride the local bike trails rather than drive to distant
vacation destinations?

All too true.

Don't worry, current estimates are that there remains about
50 years of fossil fuels left. Then it'll be mad max time...

--
--------------------------
Andre Charlebois AGC-PC support agc-pc.tripod.comagc-pc.tripod.comOpen ↗
BPE, MCSE4.0, CNA, A+

"Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction Bicycles"
<[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high
oil prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed
increased customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying
bicycles for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home
and ride the local bike trails rather than drive to
distant vacation destinations?

Unfortunately, demand for gas is relatively inelastic; as
the price goes

up,

Quoted message said:

demand drops very, very little. People gripe about how
much they're

paying,

Quoted message said:

but I have yet to see an article that has shown this has
put a dent in the barrels of oil we're consuming on the
highways. Rather, people are simply spending money on gas
that was previously going to other things.

The best way to get people out of their cars (in America,
anyway) is for

gas

Quoted message said:

to be in short supply. Americans don't like to be
inconvenienced... if

they

Quoted message said:

have to wait in long lines, *then* they might find ways to
drive less.

But

Quoted message said:

gas prices would probably have to hit some sort of
symbolic figure ($3/gallon? $4?) before people would
actually drive a lot less. They'll claim otherwise, of
course, but the reality is that Americans will forfeit
their Starbucks Latte and new bike fund in order to pay
for higher gas prices.

Besides, in real terms, gas prices haven't kept up with
inflation over the years. Gas is either artificially cheap
now or was artificially expensive earlier. Market
mechanisms have been severely corrupted over the years;
stable & cheap oil is a national policy that dictates how
our foreign

policy

Quoted message said:

is played out. But, this is very much in jeopardy as
China makes

increasing

Quoted message said:

demands upon the world's raw materials, and their economic
power has the potential to rearrange the playing field.

Now what was the question? Oh yes, how have higher gas
prices affected my business. So far, no noticeable affect.
People gripe about it, but few

are

Quoted message said:

talking about giving up driving in favor of bike
commuting.

Unfortunately,

Quoted message said:

this being an election year, the practicality of bike
commuting has the potential of becoming lost in the
rhetoric... bike commuting is being seen more as a
political statement 'round these parts than as a reaction
to the expense of driving.

--Mike Jacoubowsky Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high
oil prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed
increased customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying
bicycles for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home
and ride the local bike trails rather than drive to
distant vacation destinations?

On Fri, 28 May 2004 00:49:51 GMT, "Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction

Bicycles said:

Unfortunately, demand for gas is relatively inelastic; as
the price goes up, demand drops very, very little. People
gripe about how much they're paying, but I have yet to see
an article that has shown this has put a dent in the
barrels of oil we're consuming on the highways. Rather,
people are simply spending money on gas that was previously
going to other things.

The funny part comes after you do the math. Since the
biggest gas guzzlers are often the more expensive, heaviest,
highest horsepower vehicles, I find the driver of a $50,000
vehicle complaining about an extra $9 in the tank
entertaining. <G>

The real issue is diesel. Almost everything in the US gets
delivered by truck. The increased cost of diesel hits a
product several times before it gets to the final purchaser.

Barry

On Fri, 28 May 2004 00:58:09 GMT, "Andre" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

All too true.

Don't worry, current estimates are that there remains
about 50 years of fossil fuels left. Then it'll be mad
max time...

Of course they could stretch that out a lot further if they
start the alternative energy programs earlier.

It would only take about a decade to get more nuclear plants
on line and improve the transmission line infrastructure
enough to handle the additional load of electric vehicles.

Guess we will have to watch a few more Mad Max dry runs
before it is all over. CIA analysts apparantly believe that
most voting Americans will eventually prefer listening to
lineman for the county.

dsr-<< As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high
oil prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops? >><BR><BR>

Our biz has been growing for 5 years, but no spike due to
high oil prices, not in the 'republic'.

Peter Chisholm Vecchio's Bicicletteria 1833 Pearl St.
Boulder, CO, 80302
(303)440-3535 vecchios.comvecchios.comOpen ↗ "Ruote convenzionali
costruite eccezionalmente bene"

Mike J-<< The best way to get people out of their cars (in
America, anyway) is for gas to be in short supply.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

<BR><BR>

AND a safe way for people to get around on a bike, via bike
lanes. NOT multiuse paths but a 3 foot wide part of the road
for bicycles ONLY. A pet peeve of mine here in the republic
for a log time. Boulder pays lip service to alternative
forms of transportation but a conversation with the 'traffic
'engineer' shows she cares little about bicycles.

Peter Chisholm Vecchio's Bicicletteria 1833 Pearl St.
Boulder, CO, 80302
(303)440-3535 vecchios.comvecchios.comOpen ↗ "Ruote convenzionali
costruite eccezionalmente bene"

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by dsr
As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying bicycles
for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home and
ride the local bike trails rather than drive to distant
vacation destinations?

I think there is still a big mental hurdle in the US to get people to think of bikes as a realistic transportation alternative to cars. On the recent bike to work day, I did an informal survey at my company of 300 people and not one person rode a bike to work that day that didn't already commute by bike on a regular basis.

Although just over the last year or two it seems that some of the big bike companies have started marketing a few european-style commuter/utility bikes (e.g. Specialized Global, and Trek models), when I was shopping for a Breezer bike for my wife (excellently designed bikes, btw) at shops in the Bay Area they said that very few people looking for a bike are thinking of a bike as an alternative to driving a car, but rather as a "sport". Heard a lot of people complain about gas prices but never heard anyway say "maybe I'll ride a bike instead".

Quoted message said:

It would only take about a decade to get more nuclear
plants on line and improve the transmission line
infrastructure enough to handle the additional load of
electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles just aren't feasible with modern
technology. How about, instead, just not burning fossil
fuels for electric power generation; instead, use
[nuclear|solar|etc]. This frees up fossil fuels for internal
combustion power.

Of course, increased production and support of renewable
internal combustion fuels would be good too -- biodiesel,
ethanol, etc.
--
Rick Onanian

On 27 May 2004 15:21:48 EDT, [email hidden] may have said:

Noting in advance that this is entirely a US-centric
topic...

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

I'm not a shop owner, but the guy in my favorite lbs was
griping last weekend that gas price increases haven't made a
bit of difference in his sales so far.

Quoted message said:

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home and
ride the local bike trails rather than drive to distant
vacation destinations?

A source in the tourist industry reports that her bookings
for lodging in traditional drive-to destinations have
dropped a bit, and cancellations of such bookings made over
6 months ago have risen somewhat, but it's not a dramatic
change from last year. The US tourist industry has yet to
finish climbing out of the 911 doldrums in any event.

As for the second part of the question, the trails locally
have been no more congested than usual. This weekend,
they'll be mobbed regardless.

Approaching the gas price issue from another direction, auto
industry stats show that as usual, gas price increases are
shifting SUV sales toward the smaller units. Car sales
figures don't seem to be showing all that much of an impact.

As for commuting and overall urban bike usage as a
substitute for driving, until the public's perception is
that it's safe and convenient to ride a bike on the
streets in traffic, I doubt that there will be much of a
non-recreational shift to bikes. And, not surprisingly,
until that same public pays more attention to making the
streets safe for bikes, the attitudes about the safety of
riding a bike in traffic won't change. This is almost a
classic chicken/egg problem, though it may get some
impetus toward change if gas prices rise above US$3.50.
When it costs $40 to fill the tank on a small car, people
will cut back on driving.

--
My email address is antispammed; pull WEEDS if replying via
e-mail. Typoes are not a bug, they're a feature. Words
processed in a facility that contains nuts.

On Fri, 28 May 2004 09:45:25 -0400, Rick Onanian <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

It would only take about a decade to get more nuclear
plants on line and improve the transmission line
infrastructure enough to handle the additional load of
electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles just aren't feasible with modern
technology.

Swapable energy modules and renewable fuel cell technology
has been making a lot of headway in recent years. By the
time oil reserves start to dwindle it should be quite cost
effective. Most of the issues with alternate energy sources
for moving vehicles these days center around safety. You can
store potential energy quite efficiently in large amounts
but the trick is to make the storage method as safe as using
gasoline in case of a serious accident.

Quoted message said:

How about, instead, just not burning fossil fuels for
electric power generation; instead, use
[nuclear|solar|etc]. This frees up fossil fuels for
internal combustion power.

This would be the place to start since it is more efficient
to generate power in a large power station setting.

Quoted message said:

Of course, increased production and support of renewable
internal combustion fuels would be good too -- biodiesel,
ethanol, etc.

Could be a lot of different competing solutions. I read
somewhere that they were considering using electricity to
renew the working fluid in a fuel cell for electric powered
vehicles. Perhaps they will develop a safe hydrogen fuel for
IC engines that can be created by separating water using an
electrical process. There are even flywheel based systems
that are very efficient at storing energy.

Of course China had the right idea when most of the
population used bicycles to get around. It would be kind of
ironic if the US started building new bike trails and
putting bike lanes on our highways while China builds super
highways for their cars.

On Fri, 28 May 2004 09:45:25 -0400, Rick Onanian <[email hidden]>

may have said:

Quoted message said:

It would only take about a decade to get more nuclear
plants on line and improve the transmission line
infrastructure enough to handle the additional load of
electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles just aren't feasible with modern
technology. How about, instead, just not burning fossil
fuels for electric power generation; instead, use
[nuclear|solar|etc]. This frees up fossil fuels for
internal combustion power.

Current agritech is heavily reliant upon petrochem for
pesticides and certain fertilizers. You'll have to break
that loop as well.

Things will get very interesting as the demand for petroleum
in China continues to rise.

Quoted message said:

Of course, increased production and support of renewable
internal combustion fuels would be good too -- biodiesel,
ethanol, etc.

--
My email address is antispammed; pull WEEDS if replying via
e-mail. Typoes are not a bug, they're a feature. Words
processed in a facility that contains nuts.

Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction Bicycles said:

Unfortunately, demand for gas is relatively inelastic; as
the price goes up, demand drops very, very little. People
gripe about how much they're paying, but I have yet to see
an article that has shown this has put a dent in the
barrels of oil we're consuming on the highways.

Yep. I seem to recall that after the first gas crunch in the
1970s, people started switching from their big gas guzzlers
to smaller cars. But now 25-30 years later, SUVs and vans
seem to predominate. Go figure.

Quoted message said:

Besides, in real terms, gas prices haven't kept up with
inflation over the years. Gas is either artificially cheap
now or was artificially expensive earlier.

I don't know about that. I used to pay around 28 cents a
gallon when I started driving in 1968. Now I pay $2.28 a
gallon. Was the inflation rate really that high?

Art Harris

Quoted message said:

Swapable energy modules and renewable fuel cell technology
has been making a lot of headway in recent years.

That's good to hear. I've never been a big fan of battery-
powered electric, but I was excited about fuel cells maybe 7
or 8 years ago; but I was under the impression that fuel
cell tech had stalled.

Quoted message said:

Could be a lot of different competing solutions. I read
somewhere that they were considering using electricity to
renew the working fluid in a fuel cell for electric powered
vehicles. Perhaps they will develop a safe hydrogen fuel
for IC engines that can be created by separating water
using an electrical process.

Sounds cool.

Quoted message said:

There are even flywheel based systems that are very
efficient at storing energy.

I've never heard of such a thing. I can imagine current
technology making a flywheel feasible, but I can't imagine
it being feasible for powering a moving vehicle. I guess it
would have to spin up to incredible speeds to store enough
energy, as adding weight would be counterproductive.
--
Rick Onanian

On Fri, 28 May 2004 15:12:19 GMT, Harris

may have said:

... I used to pay around 28 cents a gallon when I started
driving in 1968. Now I pay $2.28 a gallon. Was the
inflation rate really that high?

Yes. I have a copy of a newspaper from 1969 here. The
inflation rates have indeed been of that magnitude. In 1967
dollars, today's buck is worth about a dime.

--
My email address is antispammed; pull WEEDS if replying via
e-mail. Typoes are not a bug, they're a feature. Words
processed in a facility that contains nuts.

On Fri, 28 May 2004 09:45:25 -0400, Rick Onanian <[email hidden]>

may have said:

Quoted message said:

It would only take about a decade to get more nuclear
plants on line and improve the transmission line
infrastructure enough to handle the additional load of
electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles just aren't feasible with modern
technology. How about, instead, just not burning fossil
fuels for electric power generation; instead, use
[nuclear|solar|etc]. This frees up fossil fuels for
internal combustion power.

Coal is used for the lion's share of US power generation. It
can be converted to gasoline (Shell had a demonstration
plant at one time which was capable of doing so), but that's
not an efficient process. Natural gas still fires a few
generating turbines, but not many; the stuff's become too
expensive for that. "Fuel oil" is also used in some areas,
but once again, it's more expensive than coal. As for
nuclear plants, along with the very long lead time to build
a fission plant, it also must be remembered that it takes
several years of continuous full output before a fission
plant returns the amount of energy used in its construction.
No functional fusion plant yet exists. The only existing
test facility which might have the capability to prove the
effectiveness of fusion technology has never been permitted
to operate at the power levels that would confirm that the
system even works at a useful level.

The power generation industry has an interesting future
coming up fast. So do the owners and users of lots of high-fuel-
consumption vehicles. At this point, I think there will be a
lot of fortunes changing as the oil runs out and the US
societal paradigm is forced into a new configuration.

--
My email address is antispammed; pull WEEDS if replying via
e-mail. Typoes are not a bug, they're a feature. Words
processed in a facility that contains nuts.

Werehatrack said:

Coal is used for the lion's share of US power generation.
It can be converted to gasoline (Shell had a demonstration
plant at one time which was capable of doing so), but
that's not an efficient process. Natural gas still fires a
few generating turbines, but not many; the stuff's become
too expensive for that.

It is common in newspapers to read that natural gas is the
fuel of choice for new plants, and that coal plants are
being replaced by gas.

A quick googling produces this, fwiw:
fe.doe.govpowersystemsOpen ↗ :Virtually all
projections show coal continuing to supply around :half of
the nation's electricity for the next 20 years while natural
:gas is expected to dominate fuel choices for new power
plants in the :foreseeable future.

Personally, I'm a fan of solar on every roof, which could
make suburban single-family homes produce as much as they
use, and provide a portion of what's used in more dense
settings; but people won't make the investment, even now
that the "it's ugly" argument is invalidated (there are now
photovoltaic products that look like regular roofing
materials).
--
Rick Onanian

On Fri, 28 May 2004 11:42:31 -0400, Rick Onanian <[email hidden]>

may have said:

Quoted message said:

Swapable energy modules and renewable fuel cell technology
has been making a lot of headway in recent years.

That's good to hear. I've never been a big fan of battery-
powered electric, but I was excited about fuel cells maybe
7 or 8 years ago; but I was under the impression that fuel
cell tech had stalled.

Tech didn't stall, but the idiots at Popular Mechanics
stopped getting interviews and press releases from the
people doing the research when the car companies began to
express a real interest. Fuel cells are no longer a toy, and
NASA is no longer the only place where development is making
progress. There are still economies of scale to achieve in
production before they'll be affordable for mid-price and
entry-level vehicles, but Honda is making some fuel cell
vehicles for sale now.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Could be a lot of different competing solutions. I read
somewhere that they were considering using electricity to
renew the working fluid in a fuel cell for electric
powered vehicles. Perhaps they will develop a safe
hydrogen fuel for IC engines that can be created by
separating water using an electrical process.

Sounds cool.

Hydrogen as an IC engine fuel presents materials problems
that are expensive to address. The big issue is that you
really can't use iron in the combustion chamber if you want
the engine to last very long. Suitable materials exist but
they're difficult to use and expensive to work with. Fuel
cells hold more promise in my opinion.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

There are even flywheel based systems that are very
efficient at storing energy.

I've never heard of such a thing. I can imagine current
technology making a flywheel feasible, but I can't imagine
it being feasible for powering a moving vehicle.

There are certain serious problems with flywheel systems for
moving vehicles. Flywheels make sense for stationary storage
in some applications, though.

--
My email address is antispammed; pull WEEDS if replying via
e-mail. Typoes are not a bug, they're a feature. Words
processed in a facility that contains nuts.

"Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction Bicycles" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

As OPEC is seen riding the early summer crest of high oil
prices, have any of you bike shop guys noticed increased
customer traffic in your shops?

Are you getting any new customers that are buying
bicycles for commuting in addition to recreation?

Do you think some customers have decided to stay home and
ride the local bike trails rather than drive to distant
vacation destinations?

Unfortunately, demand for gas is relatively inelastic; as
the price goes up, demand drops very, very little. People
gripe about how much they're paying, but I have yet to see
an article that has shown this has put a dent in the
barrels of oil we're consuming on the highways. Rather,
people are simply spending money on gas that was
previously going to other things.

Not if you correct gasoline prices for inflation, as was
pointed out in one of the NPR financial programs earlier
this week. The number is higher, yes, but the corrected
price of gasoline is lower than it was 20 years ago. You're
quite right, though, that demand is indeed inelastic.

Quoted message said:

Besides, in real terms, gas prices haven't kept up with
inflation over the years. Gas is either artificially cheap
now or was artificially expensive earlier. Market
mechanisms have been severely corrupted over the years;
stable & cheap oil is a national policy that dictates how
our foreign policy is played out. But, this is very much
in jeopardy as China makes increasing demands upon the
world's raw materials, and their economic power has the
potential to rearrange the playing field.

*Will* rearrange the playing field profoundly. China will
become the dominant world economic power and, with that,
probably the world's dominant military power. Unless the
Bush Administration decides this is economic terrorism and
nukes them first.

Quoted message said:

Now what was the question? Oh yes, how have higher gas
prices affected my business. So far, no noticeable affect.
People gripe about it, but few are talking about giving up
driving in favor of bike commuting.

I szee more bike commuters locally (Minneapolis/St. Paul)
but that has been steadily on the increase for the past 10
years, at least to casual observation, and has little or
nothing to do with gas prices.