Unless there is a crash, is the GC over?

Hamilton is only 36 seconds behind (new timing for TTT) ........ that ain't squat.

And there is the 60 km ITT as the penultimate stage. Ullrich's forte there.

To think that is over is just assinine ....... obviously you know little to nothing about stage racing.

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

Either a mountain stage or the long ITT. Ullrich and other
GC contenders will be watching Lance closely in the
mountains to see if he has a bad day. If so (and if he's not
bluffing), they will attack hard. Lance sometimes has a bad
day, so it's possible (but not likely) that he will lose
some time in one of the mountain stages.

In the long ITT, Ullrich and Hamilton are both excellent,
but Lance is even better when he's in good form. Once again,
it's possible that Ullrich will gain significant time as he
did last year, but it's not likely.

Mike

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at
the moment.

Doh! I'm trying to work and watch at the same time - I mis-
heard the TTT results for the GC standings. He does not have
a minute. Of course what a big difference that makes in my
initial comments.

Quoted message said:

To think that is over is just assinine ....... obviously
you know little to nothing about stage racing.

Obviously you know little about grammar. I was asking
the question as to whether or not it's over (crashes
withstanding). Not making a statement that it is
indeed over.

Also, I already corrected myself on the GC standings.

But thanks for the enlightement anyway.

Super Fred timlambert @ mindspring . com said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Quoted message said:

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

Quoted message said:

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at
the moment.

Ullrich pulled back more time than this in the two TTs last
year. The times from Nantes might not be an accurate gauge
of ability since Ullrich was under pressure to take risks
and LANCE was under pressure to ride conservatively. But if
LANCE just follows wheels both Ullrich and Hamilton are in a
position to smoke him.

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more
than capable of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani
won nothing that year until he had gotten his butt kicked
often enough that Jan didn't have to watch him that closely.

This Tour will be close. My wife wants to spend Saturday the
24th in Geneva. I have informed her that there is a distinct
possibility that I will have to bail and go to Besancon to
see history be made.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> a écrit dans le message de
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at
the moment.

Yeah, it's over. Go on home. Nothing here to see.

Bob Schwartz said:

This Tour will be close.

But the podium is still Lance, Jan, and Tyler, probably in
that order. The losses of a healthy Vinokourov and Belocki
really dilutes the GC contending talent and makes for a less
exciting race. That, and the likes of Mayo and Moreau losing
so much time early. --dt

Quoted message said:

Ullrich was under pressure to take risks and LANCE was
under pressure to ride conservatively. But if LANCE just
follows wheels both Ullrich and Hamilton are in a position
to smoke him.

And how do you figure this? Posties have a much stronger
team so far and smoked all today. And since when doed LA
simply follow wheels? He appears in much better form than
last year. Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off.
Just watch the race unfold.

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more
than capable of riding away from the great climbers.
Pantani won nothing that year until he had gotten his butt
kicked often enough that Jan didn't have to watch him that
closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my grandmother
had wheels, she'd be a wagon. Jan has shown us very little,
except for his cheap words about no longer wanting to finish
2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF again. I just dont
think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the work. The old
days of riding into form are over.

Look, I want Lance to win, but I am not an LA apologist.
Every year we hear talk about how this is the year he can be
beat, and then he wins again. I am just tired of all the JU
apologists making excuses. Next thing we will be talking
about JU virtual TDF wins.

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in message
news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at
the moment.

After the 2003 TTT, Ullrich was 38 seconds down on
Armstrong. Hamilton was 1'44"down. This year Tyler is down
by 36" with Ullrich down by 55"

It's far from over. Between, the time bonuses and the 2'30"
maximum time loss, Leblanc has made it a more open race. Too
bad there aren't more mountains this year.

Brian P said:

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my
grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon. Jan has shown us
very little, except for his cheap words about no longer
wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF
again. I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont
do the work. The old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle
[censored] a week alone isn't enough.

Kyle Legate said:

Brian P said:

I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the
work. The old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle
[censored] a week alone isn't enough.

Oh I think it is very clear that the days of racing into
shape are long gone. I best technique seems to be *not*
racing into shape. That is, you spend some time away from
the dope tests so that you can do the sort of super-
intensive training that the needle [censored] allow you to do.
Give yourself some time for things to clear from your system
and you're good to go.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Brian P said:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich was under pressure to take risks and LANCE was
under pressure to ride conservatively. But if LANCE just
follows wheels both Ullrich and Hamilton are in a
position to smoke him.

And how do you figure this? Posties have a much stronger
team so far and smoked all today. And since when doed LA
simply follow wheels? He appears in much better form than
last year. Dogging the Dauphine appears to have paid off.
Just watch the race unfold.

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride aggressively
in the mountains. If he doesn't pick up additional time
there he is vulnerable. And I appear to be the only one to
think that his gaining time there is not a given. But I
don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE
gain on Ullrich in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is more
than capable of riding away from the great climbers.
Pantani won nothing that year until he had gotten his
butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't have to watch
him that closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my
grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon. Jan has shown us
very little, except for his cheap words about no longer
wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the TDF
again. I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont
do the work. The old days of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this stage
of the Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run
in to the Tour has been incident free. No knee problems.
His tendency to gain weight has been addressed. No
imploding sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of the
HC stage races leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive tendencies
appear to be curbed. As you say, just watch the race unfold.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

In article <PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53>,
[email hidden] says...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far) Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the
team let anyone of significance completely ride away from
Lance in the flats? And will Lance let anyone of
signficance completely ride away in the mountains? I
suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at the
moment.

There is still a lot of racing left. Right now Lance is in a
great position to make history. We know he can TT. The real
question is can he climb like he has in years past? We won't
know for a few days.
-------------
Alex

"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Brian P said:

Quoted message said:

> > And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He
> > appears in much

better form

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

than last year. Dogging the Dauphine appears to have
paid off. Just watch the race

unfold.

Quoted message said:

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride
aggressively in the mountains. If he doesn't pick up
additional time there he is vulnerable. And I appear to be
the only one to think that his gaining time there is not a
given. But I don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE
gain on Ullrich in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is
more than capable of riding away from the great
climbers. Pantani won nothing that year until he had
gotten his butt kicked often enough that Jan didn't
have to watch him that closely.

Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my
grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon. Jan has shown
us very little, except for his cheap words about no
longer wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win
the TDF again. I just dont think he wants it bad enough.
He wont do the work. The old

days

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this
stage of the Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run in
to the Tour has been incident free. No knee problems. His
tendency to gain weight has been addressed. No imploding
sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of
the HC stage races leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive
tendencies appear to be curbed. As you say, just watch
the race unfold.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Apparently, with the rain it was probably a better idea for
Tmobile not to go all out just yet, but I hope he hasn't
lost too much time. Same thing in the prologue. One of his
teammates crashed and Ullrich was told not to take risks
with the slippery pavement and the curves.

I just wish LA would go away! It'snot just that he's won,
but everything is a lance-fest, even the coverage. ANd the
interviews with his girlfriend and the Lance Chronicles.
Why bother, the whole network is the lance chronicles. Not
hard to forget who is sponsoring his team, that's for
sure. THe tour has become the same thing every year it
seems, and the coverage is making it worse! I wish we got
Eurosport or France 2. Maybe it's dopey bu I keep
thinking, accch...another predictable tour. At least the
Giro, you never know who's going to win, that's why it's s
much more fun!

However, I was also curious so I went back and looked at
the results of the 1996 tour, when Indurain was going for
6. He and Riis were only a second apart, right up until
they got into the alps,which was stage 7, and that was when
poor Indurain had such a terrible time. Of course, the gap
here is somewhat bigger, but Riis was very patient and
didn't take all kinds of risks right off- he was very cool
and waited until he saw the signs of weakness. I don't
think it was just bonking, I think it was the pressure that
got to him.

On Wed, 7 Jul 2004 16:58:31 -0400, Marlene Blanshay <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Brian P said:

> > > And since when doed LA simply follow wheels? He
> > > appears in much

better form

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

than last year. Dogging the Dauphine appears to have
paid off. Just watch the race

unfold.

Quoted message said:

What I meant is that LANCE still needs to ride
aggressively in the mountains. If he doesn't pick up
additional time there he is vulnerable. And I appear to
be the only one to think that his gaining time there is
not a given. But I don't think it's a given.

Let me put it this way. How much time in total did LANCE
gain on Ullrich in the two TTs last year?

Quoted message said:

> If Jan has the form he had when he won in 1997 he is
> more than

capable

Quoted message said:

> of riding away from the great climbers. Pantani won
> nothing that year until he had gotten his butt kicked
> often enough that Jan didn't have to watch him that
> closely.
Reaching for 7 year old form...seriously? If my
grandmother had

wheels,

Quoted message said:

she'd be a wagon. Jan has shown us very little, except
for his cheap words about no

longer

Quoted message said:

wanting to finish 2nd, to beleive that he can win the
TDF again. I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He
wont do the work. The old

days

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

of riding into form are over.

And what exactly are you expecting to be shown by this
stage of the Tour?

What is different for Ullrich this year is that his run
in to the Tour has been incident free. No knee problems.
His tendency to gain weight has been addressed. No
imploding sponsor.

When was the last time his Tour prep looked like that?

When was the last time he had a decent result in one of
the HC stage races leading into the Tour?

What happened in the Tour that year?

He's got a stronger team. His self-destructive tendencies
appear to be curbed. As you say, just watch the race
unfold.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden]

Apparently, with the rain it was probably a better idea
for Tmobile not to go all out just yet, but I hope he
hasn't lost too much time. Same thing in the prologue. One
of his teammates crashed and Ullrich was told not to take
risks with the slippery pavement and the curves.

I just wish LA would go away! It'snot just that he's won,
but everything is a lance-fest, even the coverage. ANd the
interviews with his girlfriend and the Lance Chronicles.
Why bother, the whole network is the lance chronicles. Not
hard to forget who is sponsoring his team, that's for
sure. THe tour has become the same thing every year it
seems, and the coverage is making it worse! I wish we got
Eurosport or France 2. Maybe it's dopey bu I keep
thinking, accch...another predictable tour. At least the
Giro, you never know who's going to win, that's why it's s
much more fun!

However, I was also curious so I went back and looked at
the results of the 1996 tour, when Indurain was going for
6. He and Riis were only a second apart, right up until
they got into the alps,which was stage 7, and that was
when poor Indurain had such a terrible time. Of course,
the gap here is somewhat bigger, but Riis was very patient
and didn't take all kinds of risks right off- he was very
cool and waited until he saw the signs of weakness. I
don't think it was just bonking, I think it was the
pressure that got to him.

But Indurain was overweight and out of shape (relatively
speaking -- he'd still kick my butt). Lance isn't (or
doesn't seem to be).

--
Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

The fat lady is not even in the country yet...

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in
message news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all stages
so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team let
anyone of significance completely ride away from Lance in
the flats? And will Lance let anyone of signficance
completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at
the moment.

Agreed. Though I am rooting for LA (not "routing" as
suggested in another thread), this TDF is far from over.
Mayo, being as far down as he is at the moment, will likely
take some huge chances in the mountains. Hamilton and
Ullrich have shown good form thus far as well (though their
teams are not as strong as Postal) so my bet is that it will
still be a very interesting race yet....

Mike C

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

The fat lady is not even in the country yet...

"Super Fred" <timlambert @ mindspring . com> wrote in
message news:PCUGc.40834$XM6.23052@attbi_s53...

Quoted message said:

Given that...
- Lance has a minute ahead
- Lance is obviously in great form (shown by the ITT)
- The team is obviously in great form (shown by all
stages so far)

Sure the mountains are yet to come, but will the team
let anyone of significance completely ride away from
Lance in the flats? And will Lance let anyone of
signficance completely ride away in the mountains?

I suppose the above outlines the obvious USPS strategy.
Maybe it will be harder to pull off than it looks at the
moment.

Quoted message said:

This Tour will be close. My wife wants to spend Saturday
the 24th in Geneva. I have informed her that there is a
distinct possibility that I will have to bail and go to
Besancon to see history be made.

I just checked the SNCF website; getting to Besancon doesn't
look to be a problem, but leaving does. You might have to do
some very creative routing to get out of town if you want to
leave after the final rider finishes.

On the other hand, there are earlier options (such as a
train leaving around
16:40 if I recall correctly) that would allow you to see
the last rider leave, but you wouldn't be able to see
him finish.

Cost is about 60 euros, and the tickets are refundable. If
you're seriously entertaining the possibility of seeing the
final TT, I'd order up tickets quickly. My experience in
Macon two years ago was that *nothing* will be available as
you near the date of the race.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Bob Schwartz

BKyle Legate said:

Brian P said:

I just dont think he wants it bad enough. He wont do the
work. The old days of riding into form are over.

How else is a rider going to do it? A couple of needle
[censored] a week alone isn't enough.

Oh I think it is very clear that the days of racing into
shape are long gone. I best technique seems to be *not*
racing into shape. That is, you spend some time away from
the dope tests so that you can do the sort of super-
intensive training that the needle [censored] allow you to do.
Give yourself some time for things to clear from your system
and you're good to go.

Bob Schwartz [email hidden] [/B]

I can not do anything else but agree

*Lemond*
*Dekker after dispension*
*Ulrich after kneeproblems*
etc. etc. etc.

Yeah I imply Lance is taking.... but to be just as fair, so are the others, so I do not care *shrug*