TdF--two man race?

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
very well for that young man.

I agree. I think he will do very well this year, and you never know what
will happen.

M.

Tom Kunich said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Michael" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a

close

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:

Final 8 from Last Year:

1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28

I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to

attack.

Quoted message said:

Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs

to

Quoted message said:

stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for

the

Quoted message said:

whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be

back

Quoted message said:

to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the

top

Quoted message said:

5.

IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino because
he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.

I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more on the order of 3-4
minutes. There will be some 20 seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau
de Beille, 30 seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe d'Huez
and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance retires from the European
peloton at the end of 2004 then perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if
Lance is there I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what you
hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark
at 7 Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record forever.

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

Quoted message said:

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

It might be Vino who ends as the T-mobile threat. Vino was third, Lance
will focus on Jan, and Jan's form is bad. Furthermore, Vino has been ok
in the early season...not bad, but he looks like a man ready to peak for
the tour...I would watch out and I will go out on a limb and say that he
has a better chance to "win" not finish second...i mean win than jan.

--

In article <[email hidden]>,

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Tom Schulenburg said:

Zubeldia and Mayo are
wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.

In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs, anyway.
In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
Hamilton).

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Basso and Moreau are not threats.

I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I have hope for
him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the Ardennes classics, but
we'll see how he does in Romandie. So far, so good.

Basso's still pretty young, and he does seem to be focusing on the Tour
a bit. I think he'll have a good TdF this year.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Leipheimer could be a darkhorse

Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to expect.
Can't be worse than last year though.

Well, he could crash before he even starts the race - that'd be worse. I
hope he has a good Tour.

--
tanx,
Howard

Q: Can we call it a quagmire yet?

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.

Not in my opinion. Heras cannot keep a steady high speed on a climb unless
it is very steep. You'll notice that in every climb that didn't have those
high pitches that he was riding at or off of the back of the climbers, often
unable to keep a steady pace and rocking back and forth on and off.

In a TT up such a climb where he doesn't have a group to pace him, I think
that he'll be far too slow on the lesser gradients to make up for it. L'Alpe
is too shallow for Heras anyway.

"Richard Adams" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino

because

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case demonstrating
just how strong the Posties really are.

Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Richard Adams" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino

because

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case

demonstrating

Quoted message said:

just how strong the Posties really are.

Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.

I agree with Jan not being able to dictate the pace on climbs (but Jan
didn't ride in 2002.) In 2001 I remember Jan having Vino and Livingston
with him in the mountains and they weren't able to drop Lance. I wouldn't
be surprised if Vino wasn't treated as a second "protected" rider by
T-Mobile (especially with Jan's condition in question) This would allow him
to attack, and force Postal to cover, while Jan just sits on chase looking
for opportunity to counter.

-T

"curt" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

Quoted message said:

I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk about Lance and
Jan as if they are the only two in the race.

That is merely *your* impression. Everyone knows there is a GC that ranks
every finisher.

Quoted message said:

I personally think Lance is on
his way out and someone will take him down this year or certainly the next
if he even competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he will
need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so many in a row as

it

Quoted message said:

is.

It is what it is.

Quoted message said:

As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and they most likely do
not want to see a record six from an American.

I see you are catching on...

Quoted message said:

I would suspect that most of
Europe would like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't blame
them to be honest.

Most? I doubt that. Lance has plenty of fans on both sides of the ocean.
Winning 6 is obviously unoprecedented and many people enjoy the excitement
that comes from seeing something that has never happened before. Still,
there are as many opinions as there are people so I would say you should
just let them speak for themselves.

Quoted message said:

This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking forward to it and
hope we have some decent coverage and don't have to put up with some

stupid

Quoted message said:

major network taking over on the last day and not even showing the race.

Who cares about the last day except those rare editions when it ends in an
ITT?

Quoted message said:

No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at other strong
riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's name mentioned, so he is
being looked at as a serious competitor.

Curt

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is that
with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a rider that
has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong (unless you
count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys are getting the
majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2 most consistent
riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the race are so low
that it is surprising some of the others can even stay motivated to pursue
GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).

I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more than a
longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are really
only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing yellow in
Paris.

Quoted message said:

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong
(unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys
are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2
most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the
race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even stay
motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more
than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are
really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing
yellow in Paris.

In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
Lance anything could happen.

--

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten

Armstrong

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

(unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these

guys

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2
most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even stay
motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more
than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there

are

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing
yellow in Paris.

In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
Lance anything could happen.

Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
wheels.

-T

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten

Armstrong

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

(unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these

guys

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the

2

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even

stay

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
I would love to think that there are other riders out there with

more

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there

are

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at

wearing

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

yellow in Paris.

In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
Lance anything could happen.

Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
wheels.

Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
lesser jersey holders I think.

"Howard Kveck" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

In article <[email hidden]>,

Ewoud Dronkert said:

Tom Schulenburg said:

Zubeldia and Mayo are
wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one

year

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.

In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs,

anyway.

Quoted message said:

In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
Hamilton).

You are right. In fact Mayo arrived to the TdF03 a bit in a downward state
of shape. He definitely had not prepared specifically for it. Let's not
forget he had won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (beating Tyler in the last TT!),
then he was second in LBL and finally he was the only one that could put
Lance into trouble during the (Dauphine?). I think people is exagerating his
TT "disability".

As much as I like the Euskaltel concept, I think the major handicap for Mayo
and Zubeldia is that they are in a team with amateurish direction and
management. And this is not likely to change, as the founder of foundation
that created the team is also the top manager (and it seems that the
sponsors are not ready to demand more professionality just yet).

Tom Schulenburg said:

That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck), But if past
performance is any indication of future results, I don't think you'll see
Lance or Jan crack. One of the things that impressed me last year (And
hopefuly I've learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off the pace and
ride tempo to the top. In both cases they limited their losses to a few
seconds. A less experienced rider would have tried to hang on until they
bonk.

True, but Things Happen that you can't expect. Last year, Beloki
crashed. In 1989, Pedro Delgado missed his prologue start time.

Actually, the best example to watch for is Indurain in '96. He was the
favorite, having won 5 consecutive tours, but he was also at the end of
his career. He cracked on a cold, rainy mountain stage, and as it
turned out, Riis was the stronger rider that year.

In the case of Armstrong, the real question is in how much he has left
in his career. I think he's now at the point where his most prominent
opponent may not necessarily be Ullrich, but his own advancing age.
Lance is still close enough to the top that he can still compete at the
top level, and win, but that isn't going to be much longer. If
Armstrong doesn't crack this year, the chances of doing so next year are
much higher.

The primary reason that Ullrich isn't quite facing the same problem is
mostly a matter of age, and that he's a couple of years younger than
Armstrong. However, given Ullrich's battles with his weight over his
career, he might be susceptible to cracking at an earlier age.

As we see Armstrong and Ullrich begin to reach the ends of their careers
at the top, it may be more productive to look for the identity of the
next Tour winner not in the guys who have challenged, come close, but
not quite made it to the top step of the podium, but guys who are
considerably younger. I will admit that I haven't followed the
competition for the young rider white jersey in recent years, but that
may be the more likely place to see who's going to be next.

Smith

Tom Kunich said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:O-
[email hidden]:OWykc.3716$7X1.2198@n-
ewssvr27.news.prodigy.com...

Quoted message said:

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:q-
[email hidden]:q_xkc.5681$k74.2470@fe13-
.usenetserver.com...

Quoted message said:

wrote:
> Of course they are looking at others. What you need to
> understand is that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has
> been competing with a rider that has never placed lower than
> second AND never beaten

Armstrong

Quoted message said:

> (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that
> these

guys

Quoted message said:

> are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also
> the

2

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2
> taking

the

Quoted message said:

> race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can
> even

stay

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> I would love to think that there are other riders out there with

more

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that
> there

are

Quoted message said:

> really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at

wearing

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> yellow in Paris.

In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that
weird things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have
also been injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again
with Jan and Lance anything could happen.

Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just
sucking wheels.

Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of
those lesser jersey holders I think.

First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated. Second, we don't just
remember them because of the jersey. Third, I was talking about finances
not memories. Fourth, the gc contenders who we are talking about can't
win jerseys other than KOM, which is not that prestigous or good for
sponsers. Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
wins. Vino and tyler for instance.

--

Tom Kunich said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
wheels.

Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
lesser jersey holders I think.

erm... that is what he said

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...
<SNIP>

Quoted message said:

First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated.

How many TdF's did Marco Pantani win? Bjarne Riis? Pedro Delgado? They are
in the record books, and remembered as champions.

<SNIP>

Quoted message said:

Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
wins. Vino and tyler for instance.

Vino is not a lesser name and was in the mix for the GC - Threatening to
take the Yellow Jersey. Tyler won his stage because he was not a threat to
the GC, and Euskatel was not capable of protecting their riders ahead of
him.

I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
than a fourth place finish.

-T

Tom Schulenburg said:

I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
than a fourth place finish.

I don't know that I agree with that. A fourth place GC finish can
establish a rider as a contender to win someday. Grand Tour victors
most often come from a fairly small group of possible winners. In
the case of the Tour de France it is almost unheard of for someone
to win with no prior Grand Tour top placings. Perhaps LANCE comes
close in 1999 although he had placed fourth in the prior year's
Vuelta. I think Fignon in 1983 might be the most recent example of
this.

It is the potential winners that draw the most attention. A good
illustration of the value of a potential winner is Berzin, who
was able to keep finding spots on teams well after it was clear
his career had dead ended, just on the possibility that he might
regain his form.

Another example is Levi Leipheimer. If he were nothing more than
a stage winner he might be back in the US riding for Noble House
like Marty Jemison. While a cynic might conclude that he owes his
spot on Rabobank to his pom pom waving wife, it is really because
of the 3rd place finish in the Vuelta that puts him on that
exclusive list.

Bob Schwartz
[email hidden]

"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Another example is Levi Leipheimer. If he were nothing more than
a stage winner he might be back in the US riding for Noble House
like Marty Jemison. While a cynic might conclude that he owes his
spot on Rabobank to his pom pom waving wife, it is really because
of the 3rd place finish in the Vuelta that puts him on that
exclusive list.

Yes, but had he finished 4th, I don't think it would have meant as much
without stage wins. If a team thought he could win stages in Grand Tours,
he'd find a team regardless of his GC placings. I think Teams and Sponsors
focus on the podium, the jersey's, and stage wins (not necessarily in that
order) - Just look at all the adds in bike magazines after the Tour that
tout riders who win stages - CSC sponsors played up Tyler's stage win (along
with 2 other team mates), Not his fourth place finish.

In most races, finishing fourth or lower means that you've been consistent,
not really contending for the GC. I agree with you that lower placed riders
may show promise for future races, but don't you think a team would risk
defending 4th or 5th place on GC for a chance at a stage win?

-T