Will Ullrich Podium in Paris?

i hope so, and maybe kloden too, i would be very happy if basso and csc were out of podium

He's got a chance at the podium but has to work a little harder now to get 3rd!

GO LANCE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gntlmn said:

I am going to say that he will. This is a bit of a long shot, but Ullrich is really coming into his own now. The power and drive are back. He is time trialing very well now, and there is a long TT on Saturday. I think he may bring back the 2:52 spread between him and Kloden on Saturday. I don't think Kloden can TT nearly as well as Ullrich. He finished 40 seconds ahead of Kloden today, but uphills are not Jan's specialty. The gap will be much greater in Ullrich's favor on Saturday.

mareblu said:

He's got a chance at the podium but has to work a little harder now to get 3rd!

GO LANCE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My prediction is that Kloden will overtake Basso and Ulrich will take fourth place behind Basso.

David_Zen said:

My prediction is that Kloden will overtake Basso and Ulrich will take fourth place behind Basso.

In view of the gaps, I'd say that prediction is very reasonable. Jan may have dug a hole too deep to climb out of. I do have a strong feeling he will take a big dent out of his time gap though.

gntlmn said:

I am going to say that he will. This is a bit of a long shot, but Ullrich is really coming into his own now. The power and drive are back. He is time trialing very well now, and there is a long TT on Saturday. I think he may bring back the 2:52 spread between him and Kloden on Saturday. I don't think Kloden can TT nearly as well as Ullrich. He finished 40 seconds ahead of Kloden today, but uphills are not Jan's specialty. The gap will be much greater in Ullrich's favor on Saturday.

Is "podium" French for "fall on my butt" just kidding. I disagree that Ullrich's speciality is not uphill.He is not pure climber of course but the pure climbers don't always do that well either. I have watched him for years and think he shows a very well rounded talent for climbing and flats and especially gradual, grueling ,grinds uphill. His style is definitely different from others but he gets the job done. . Still an Armstrong fan but I will give credit for good performances.

jhuskey said:

Is "podium" French for "fall on my butt" just kidding. I disagree that Ullrich's speciality is not uphill.He is not pure climber of course but the pure climbers don't always do that well either. I have watched him for years and think he shows a very well rounded talent for climbing and flats and especially gradual, grueling ,grinds uphill. His style is definitely different from others but he gets the job done. . Still an Armstrong fan but I will give credit for good performances.

Mainly what I wanted to emphasize is that he does well in the mountains, but he is much better on the flats. I think he will do better against all but Lance on the last time trial, which is a long 36 mile one on Saturday.

gntlmn said:

I am going to say that he will. This is a bit of a long shot, but Ullrich is really coming into his own now. The power and drive are back. He is time trialing very well now, and there is a long TT on Saturday. I think he may bring back the 2:52 spread between him and Kloden on Saturday. I don't think Kloden can TT nearly as well as Ullrich. He finished 40 seconds ahead of Kloden today, but uphills are not Jan's specialty. The gap will be much greater in Ullrich's favor on Saturday.

>>>>

Lance will win in Paris. I think Ullrich was driven today by the annoyance of always having to be number two.

But seriously, everyone was saying he's beaten, and I think he wanted to show he's not. But ultimately I think Lance will win overall. Determination to prove that a cancer survivor (esp one as bad off as he once was) can do this is a hard driving force to beat.

gntlmn said:

Mainly what I wanted to emphasize is that he does well in the mountains, but he is much better on the flats. I think he will do better against all but Lance on the last time trial, which is a long 36 mile one on Saturday.

Don't forget about guys like McEwen and Zabel. They would still like to make a showing and can handle that type terrain.

jhuskey said:

Don't forget about guys like McEwen and Zabel. They would still like to make a showing and can handle that type terrain.

Yeah, they would if it were a flat, regular stage. But I was pretty much limiting the Jan advantage to the TT on Saturday. It may not be enough for Jan though.

As for the other stages, I'm pretty sure the mountaintop finish stages are done. So the climbers don't have the advantage anymore at the ends. As you say, it may be McEwen, Zabel, et al fighting it out.

gntlmn said:

Yeah, they would if it were a flat, regular stage. But I was pretty much limiting the Jan advantage to the TT on Saturday. It may not be enough for Jan though.

As for the other stages, I'm pretty sure the mountaintop finish stages are done. So the climbers don't have the advantage anymore at the ends. As you say, it may be McEwen, Zabel, et al fighting it out.

I think Jan will obviously take time out of Basso and Kloden in the final TT, but he still needs some time before then to assure a podium finish. I expect he is going to attack again tomorrow probably on the Madelaine, and push the top riders forward like yesterday's stage, splitting the peloton. I may be wrong, but I just don't think Jan is ready to leave it all to the final TT. To pull back a 2nd place finish would be a true triumph from his poor performance in the Pyrenees, and its not out of the qestion. He will know that the top men are going to be tired from today and I just think he is going to give it his all. I hope he does because it sure makes for more exciting racing rather than just peloton pacing.

davidbod said:

I think Jan will obviously take time out of Basso and Kloden in the final TT, but he still needs some time before then to assure a podium finish. I expect he is going to attack again tomorrow probably on the Madelaine, and push the top riders forward like yesterday's stage, splitting the peloton. I may be wrong, but I just don't think Jan is ready to leave it all to the final TT. To pull back a 2nd place finish would be a true triumph from his poor performance in the Pyrenees, and its not out of the qestion. He will know that the top men are going to be tired from today and I just think he is going to give it his all. I hope he does because it sure makes for more exciting racing rather than just peloton pacing.

Now you see what kind of bold statement I'm making about Jan, assuming no changes in the top 3 on GC before Saturday. This prediction, that Jan will podium in Paris, means he will take a 2:52 chunk out of Kloden on Saturday. He seems to be getting stronger every day. I think he may be able to do it. If the team attacks Basso before Saturday, it may not help Jan because he may be forced to domestique for Kloden, since Kloden has a higher current standing on GC. If this happens, then Jan will not podium. I don't think that a major breakaway will be allowed from Kloden/Ullrich. They're too close to the top for that. So any time gains before Saturday will be very limited.

gntlmn said:

Now you see what kind of bold statement I'm making about Jan, assuming no changes in the top 3 on GC before Saturday. This prediction, that Jan will podium in Paris, means he will take a 2:52 chunk out of Kloden on Saturday. He seems to be getting stronger every day. I think he may be able to do it. If the team attacks Basso before Saturday, it may not help Jan because he may be forced to domestique for Kloden, since Kloden has a higher current standing on GC. If this happens, then Jan will not podium. I don't think that a major breakaway will be allowed from Kloden/Ullrich. They're too close to the top for that. So any time gains before Saturday will be very limited.

That's kind of my theory as well. I doubt either USPS or (especially) CSC wouldn't work very hard to track down any significant breakaway today, since Lance won't want to give up time to anyone even remotely close in case of disaster on the ITT, and CSC won't want to lose Basso's podium spot if they can help it. I'm guessing JU will try to break, but if his lead gets out over 2 minutes, CSC will definitely up the tempo and USPS will be happy to go along for the ride if not help drive themselves to protect the yellow.

Unfortunately for Jan, I think he's just out of luck this year unless he decides to turn on his teammate. Of course, if he tries, it will be pretty fun to watch :-D

Basso's in trouble. JU has a meaningful chance of taking third.

musette said:

Basso's in trouble. JU has a meaningful chance of taking third.

Check out Stage 18 on the other thread. That might be the chance they need before the TT on Saturday to make up the rest of the time in addition to what they gain on Sat.

gntlmn said:

I am going to say that he will. This is a bit of a long shot, but Ullrich is really coming into his own now. The power and drive are back. He is time trialing very well now, and there is a long TT on Saturday. I think he may bring back the 2:52 spread between him and Kloden on Saturday. I don't think Kloden can TT nearly as well as Ullrich. He finished 40 seconds ahead of Kloden today, but uphills are not Jan's specialty. The gap will be much greater in Ullrich's favor on Saturday.

xxdsd

gntlmn said:

I am going to say that he will. This is a bit of a long shot, but Ullrich is really coming into his own now. The power and drive are back. He is time trialing very well now, and there is a long TT on Saturday. I think he may bring back the 2:52 spread between him and Kloden on Saturday. I don't think Kloden can TT nearly as well as Ullrich. He finished 40 seconds ahead of Kloden today, but uphills are not Jan's specialty. The gap will be much greater in Ullrich's favor on Saturday.

ddff