Quoted message said:Quoted message said:On Mon, 15 Oct 2007 07:11:59 GMT, Ryan Cousineau <[email hidden]>
wrote:
[snip]
Quoted message said:...this certainly makes the strong case that bicycle ownership was
limited by its sheer unaffordability. Same as cars, though to a lesser
degree. But in either case, did bikes stop selling because everyone who
could afford one had one? I was under the impression that cycling lost
much of its daredevil reputation once the safety took over.
> For all but the wealthiest, cars were simply fantasies. Again, when
> the bicycle boom was imploding in 1900, there were more ocean liners
> in the harbors than there were automobiles in the entire U.S.
>
> Some of our exaggerated notions of how prolific cars were come from
> Hollywood. It's much easier, quicker, and cheaper to fill a
> blocked-off street with a convenient collection of old cars than to
> fill the street with old horse-drawn wagons and coaches. This equine
> censorship extends far beyond 1900. For example, Hollywood "history"
> gives little hint that [censored]'s army in Europe and Russia depended
> heavily on horses. The first soldiers that Audie Murphy killed in 1943
> were Italian officers fleeing on horseback, and he tells of hundreds
> of horses in a German convoy, all killed by artillery in France.
I started researching horse usage in WW II. Instead, I ended up with
this:
http://www.45thdivision.org/Photo_Gallery/gallery_Hall.htm
[snip]
Quoted message said:I'm not going to pretend I want to pursue this deeply enough to get to
the bottom of the question of whether bicycles were too expensive to
expand to a wider audience or not. I do stubbornly suspect that the
question is a bit like asking whether the Mercedes S-Class would sell
better if it was the same price as a Honda Civic, and thus affordable to
almost any person likely to consider themselves middle class.
Perhaps yes, but then, it's priced like it is because it really cost
that much.
As a confirmed bike-nut (and a third-generation bike commuter (a label
which I'm sure would impress my Dutch relatives only if their
grandparents couldn't afford bicycles)), I totally understand why cars
became more popular than bicycles with such rapidity: faster, more
comfortable, easily enclosed against the elements, and with greater
range. What's not to like?
Dear Ryan,
The U.S. bicycle boom around 1900 exhibits most of the characteristics
of a fad--sorry, but it's hard to get around that. Wildly increasing
sales peaked and then dropped like a rock in a few years, along with
magazine and newspaper coverage.
The same fad explanation applies to the later U.S. bike boom a few
decades ago.
(I'm not saying that "Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds" has all the answers, but it applies a lot more than we bike
nuts would like to believe.)
Partly bicycles were expensive, partly everyone in the relatively
small group that wanted a bicycle had gotten one. We U.S. bike nuts
today can't understand why other people aren't enthusiasts. They can't
understand why any grown-up would throw a thousand bucks (or our time)
away on a kid's toy.
As for riding [censored]'s horse, it's a fun page, and the pictures show
that the U.S. was the first truly mechanized army. Everyone else still
had more horses than we realize. And tradition hung on pretty hard:
"West Point during World War II, by Tom Wicker."
"'When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7,1941,' Wicker
writes, 'the United States Military Academy was much like the Army of
which it was a proud part--outmoded and inadequate. The fancily
uniformed Corps of Cadets still trained on horseback three times a
week and had to learn how to load a 75 millimeter howitzer pack on
mules. Riding breeches still were a part of the required dress, not
to be discontinued until November 1942.'"
"But already big, and lasting, changes were in the works, and that is
the story Wicker tells. Motorized vehicles were substituted for
horses. 'Horsemanship' however was not altogether eliminated until
1947, when the last horses were 'withdrawn from the post.'"
http://www.kkpnyc.com/westpoint/westpoint_book_chapter.html
As far as I can tell, West Point never had bicycling classes.
:-)
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
From the free NYT archive for February 7, 1897, at the high point of
bicycle sales:
"Six or seven years ago it was believed that the bicycle had reached
the height of its popularity, and the numerous places where they were
in use at the rate of one to every hundred inhabitants was pointed to
as proof of the correctness of the assumption [], but the number has
steadly increased since that time , and to-day it would be difficult
to find a town where the proportion is not greater than this, and in
many cities it is claimed that there is one wheel to every ten
inhabitants."
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9E00E3D81F31E132A25754C0A9649C94669ED7CF
So the claim was that one person out of ten could bicycle in 1897. The
other nine walked, rode the trolley, took a train, rode a horse, or
sat in a coach behind a horse. The rate was unlikely to have risen,
since the bike boom collapsed over the next few years, with yearly
sales dropping over 80% from around 2 million bike in a country that
reached 80 million.
Another way to look at the bike boom is to see how it was shown in
literature.
For example, Conan Doyle wrote the bulk of the Sherlock Holmes stories
during the rise of the safety bicycle and the bike boom and collapse,
from 1887 to 1904. (There was more of Holmes, but only after a
decade-long hiatus.)
But Holmes never rides a bicycle anywhere. He takes hansom cabs or
trains and orders "four-wheelers" when it's too far to walk. Holmes
probably couldn't ride a bicycle any more than Watson could solve a
mystery. Doyle wasn't aware of hordes of Englishmen bicycling because
his keen powers of observation revealed that there weren't any hordes,
just a group of enthusiasts who wildly overestimated how appealing
bicycles are.
The only bicycles that I recall in the Holmes canon are the famous
ones in the "The Adventure of the Priory School", about which Holmes
makes all sorts of outlandish deductions--he can identify forty-two
kinds of bicycle tires from their tracks*, can spot the mark left by a
patch on a tire track, and can easily tell that the rider is standing
to sprint and weaving. Holmes knows that the "hind" wheel bears more
weight and therefore makes a deeper impression and claims to be able
to tell which way the tracks were heading, and so on.
Most of this bicycle expertise is implausible nonsense, of course,
like so much of Holmes's observation and deduction, flowing from
Doyle's pen rather than any local bike shop.
And Holmes obviously screws up the main point of the bicycle case.
As Frank Krygowski explains in his monograph "Thick-Headed Holmes and
the Dangerous Bicycle: A Plea for Mandatory Helmet Laws in
Literature," there's an obvious deduction to be drawn from the
following passage, and it ain't murder:
"Our search was not a very long one. The tracks of the tyre began to
curve fantastically upon the wet and shining path. Suddenly, as I
looked ahead, the gleam of metal caught my eye from amid the thick
gorse bushes. Out of them we dragged a bicycle, Palmer-tyred, one
pedal bent, and the whole front of it horribly smeared and slobbered
with blood. On the other side of the bushes a shoe was projecting. We
ran round, and there lay the unfortunate rider. He was a tall man,
full bearded, with spectacles, one glass of which had been knocked
out. The cause of his death was a frightful blow upon the head, which
had crushed in part of his skull."
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Adventure_of_the_Priory_School
Like the dog that did not bark in the night, the word "helmet" does
not appear in the story about bicycles.
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
* And Jobst wonders why bicycle manufacturers insist on tread
patterns! If they were all smooth, how could Holmes tell them apart?
This January 1901 article from the free NYT archive gives a good idea
of the collapse of the bike boom when compared to reality. It's pretty
much a reporter putting the best face on price-slashing, dropped
sponsorships, and the racing line dying:
"A significant feature in the present bicycle show at the Madison
Square Garden [basically Interbike 1901] is the small space occupied
by the racing whee. This is in marked contrast to the shows three
years ago and more, when the racer attracted a large part of the
bicycle interest. Almost every big firm then was employing
professional riders to use their machines and establish new records.
Scores of these worn and battered wheels were exhibited as trophies of
the track. Now scarcely one is to be seen. With the exception of the
one ridden by Floyd A. McFarland, when he won the recent six-day
bicycle race wtih Elkes, and the wheel upon which Charles M. Murphy
made his mile record of 57 4-5 seconds, scarcely a professional racer
is to be seen."
"Nearly every big concern, however, shows a racing machine, but
without exception they all admit that there is very little demand for
them."
"'The easy days of the professional cyclist are gone,' said one
salesman. 'Why, a professional can't hardly get a wheel now unless he
pays his money down like any other ordinary individual.'"
"The tendency of the year is runnig for strongly in favor of
comfortable, all-around roadsters. With their cushion frames, smaller
tubing, less clumsy tires, coaster brakes, and other modern appliances
for ease and lightness, the roadster of to-day is a model of neatenss
and durability, beside which the standard price one-hundred-dollar
wheel of three years ago [1898, near the height of the boom] appears
heavy and uncouth. The best racing machines may be purchased from $50
to $75, while well-made roadsters run from $25 to $50. One firm is
showing an excellent racer for $40, while its highest-priced chain
roadster is $35. The chainless [shaft-drive] wheels are higher, from
$60 to $75."
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=940CE3DC1330E132A25754C1A9679C946097D6CF
The article goes on with quotes about how the bikes are not being
cheapened but are actually improved and talks about the booming new
motorcycle market.
It's a good example of an ostensibly objective news article slanting
things furiously.
Prices had fallen from $100 to $25-$35, but that was still very
expensive, and the cheapest $25 bikes were about like the cheapest
bikes today--not what you really want.
With almost no demand, racing bikes were sitting unsold, and the
healthy professional racing circuit was collapsing, so the
manufacturers stopped sponsoring riders. When riders won't buy the new
model that Joe GoFast wins on, the fad is fading.
Prices were being slashed. The new bikes were indeed better, but the
customers just didn't care because they weren't buying bicycles.
As for the marvelous new motorcycle market "boom" . . . Well, it would
be three years--1901, 1902, 1903--before Harley-Davidson and Indian
sold a grand total of 6 motorcycles.
By then, the NYT had practically abandoned the regular bicycle
articles that filled its pages during the boom. "Outing" magazine,
which had been founded as a bike magazine (complete with poetry and
sheet music about cycling), did the same, dropping even its reduced
bicycle page.
Cheers,
Carl Fogel