Vivian said:I don't really pay much attention to statistics. In my
job, I'm a slave to stats, and I know for a fact, at
least in my case, they don't show the reality, not 100%
at least.
Just dismissing statistics is pretty daft though. If you
/really/ think otherwise, ask yourself how casinos manage to
make consistent profits.
Quoted message said:At work (an investment bank in Canary Wharf), many times
when I get on the lift with other people, suit on, helmet
in my hand, and people tell me "you cycle to work? you're
so brave!". Brave???? Most of the people I talk to are
amazed that I have the "courage" to cycle in London. Why?
they think it's dangerous. They don't think that cycling
is dangerous per se, they think that traffic in this city
is dangerous.
Or, in other words, they are using gut reactions /instead/
of looking at statistics. If you look at the data you'll see
that they're wrong and can point them specifically at the
numbers that say so.
Quoted message said:etc, etc. And that's what my point is: traffic, at least
in London, can be a bit dangerous sometimes (they don't
seem to know what indicators are for here!), and wearing a
helmet can protect your head if you go through a
windscreen or you go over a car and land head first on the
pavement!
It *might*, but there is no evidence it will make the
difference between a potentially lethal injury and not. They
are simply not designed to whitstand the sort of forces that
will put you through a windscreen. And if you fly over a car
you will probably not land directly on your head anyway. If
helmets were really much use in these circumstances then
we'd see lower KSI rates for helmet wearers, but we don't.
Quoted message said:I wear a helmet, it doesn't bother me. I honestly don't
care if they are make it compulsory or not, it won't
change my life at all. But I just can't get into my head
that some kid that wants to ride a bike would be put off
it because he/she has to wear a helmet. Maybe I'm too
naive, right?
You may wish to say it's statistics, and thus you don't
believe it, but whatever the reason for it happening, it
*has happened* everywhere it's been tried. That's a fact.
Nobody foresaw a reason /why/ it would happen, but it did.
Then when it was tried somewhere else, same happened. And
then the next place. Do you see a pattern emerging? Why do
you feel the UK is different and will be exempt from such
a pattern.
As for "it won't change my life at all", you should be aware
that it is practically a universal view, held by supporters
of both "gut feeling" as well as people looking at stats,
that greater cycling numbers equates to more safety for
cyclists through lower accident rates. If the numbers go
down, as they will do if the UK followed a pattern like the
one already demonstrated in every place helmet compulsion
has been introduced, then the converse is also true. i.e.,
you will be more likely to be in an accident. That could
well change your life, possibly by ending it.
Quoted message said:When I said in my original post that we should trust
people more, what I meant is that we should trust that
people would see the benefits of cycling (health,
environment) regardless of whether they have to wear a
helmet or not.
In the UK at the present time? Again we have historical
precedent as a very reliable guide. Such a thing certainly
isn't going to happen overnight.
Quoted message said:I'm going to bed now. Goodnight. Vivian
-------
"We learned more from a three minute record than we ever
learned in school". No Surrender
I learned more at school about statistics, probability and
risk than I learned about it from music. You may think
"trusting your feelings" is a sound basis for public health
policy but I don't. Historical precedent and hard data from
testing helmets and finding their very serious limitations
counts for more to my mind.
Pete.
--
Peter Clinch University of Dundee Tel 44 1382 660111 ext.
33637 Medical Physics, Ninewells Hospital Fax 44 1382 640177
Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK net [email hidden]
dundee.ac.uk~pjclinchOpen ↗