Indurain redux?

"Bob Martin" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

in 508895 20060621 204800 Dan Connelly <d_j_c_o_n_n_e_l@i_e_e_e.o_r_g>

Quoted message said:

gym.gravity said:

T Ruth wrote:
>> Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other
>> out of
>> the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.
> I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
> are out of the race. But not likely.

I'm going to bookmark these posts.

The logic was flawed. He doesn't need to out time trial Ullrich, just
gain more
time on climbs than Ullrich gains in time trials, and gain more time in
time trials
than Basso gains in mountains.

But it won't happen. He might get second, but Basso is a rock solid lock
for
first.

Dan

I predict Landis will not be in the top 6.

And I'm guessing he's 4th.

My guess is that Basso will try to win TT's and try and make a early
decisive attack in the first mountains. As for Ullrich his best chance
might be to win the early TT's and try to burn Basso out on the flat
stages. This scenario is rather unlikely since Basso is a balanced
rider with a strong team. The only other scenario for Ullrich is to
play other teams against Basso in the mountains.

yeahyeah said:

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>, Scott
([email hidden]'😉 wrote:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

Stage 11's finish is 13km at a lowly 5.5% - I don't think that's going
to be steep enough for Basso to get much of an advantage.
Stage 15, might not be as decisive either if things go like 2003
Alpe d'Huez match ups:
2003: Basso 1:24 faster than Ullrich
2004: (ITT) Ullrich 1:22 faster than Basso

Stage 16 will be hard for Ullrich, but the finishing climb is 18.4 @6%
- not as steep as Plateau de Beille in 2004 where Ullrich lost 2:42,
and similar to Courchevel where Ulle held Basso to 1:12 in 2005.

I'm betting on Ullrich using the two long TT's to put time into the
rest, and holding his own in the mountains, limiting his losses to less
than a minute on these 3 stages and taking the yellow into Paris. I'm
betting on Basso having one catastrophic TT where he loses 2+ minutes
(but not as bad as the 6' he lost in '03).

Finally, bumbles bounce. This year the first real mountains don't come
until stage 10. Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash. The man went
through the back window of a car and finished on the podium of the
tour. Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

Quoted message said:

The fact is, in July, Ullrich has been a damn good climber for a
Sausage Creature.

That is what is so amusing about it all. The last 7 years there has
been ONE rider who was consistently better in climbs: Lance. Basso is
on the upswing and he fits the bill as better climber too. But then?

Rasmussen? He had a good year, but the years before he didn't
CONSISTENTLY finish near Jan
Mancebo? No way
Leipheimer? *giggle*
Hamilton? Nope, many stages where he lost to Jan.

I guess all these guys are even fatter than Jan^^

Quoted message said:

That doesn't mean he will win, but it means
somebody has to be a top-of-the-line climber _and_ not lose much
in the time trials to compete with Der Wurstjunge.

The only person that comes to mind is Basso. All the other competitor
have never proven to be better (consistent!) climbers than Jan. Of
course, there are the dark horses and there might be a new star that
stands up, but statistically it will be Basso vs. Jan.

And I think Basso will win 🙁

Simon Brooke said:

Exactly, that's what I believe. Someone who's a great climber but a so-so
time trialler is always going to beat someone who is a great time
trialler but a so-so climber on general classification, because the time
you tend to lose when things go wrong is so much higher in the
mountains.

Tell that to the Chicken...

h squared said:

dumbass, for my lameass joke to work, we need to spell it "huge".
anyway, even though it was lame and only two people could possibly get
it

I thought you were channeling Divine Brown.

--
E. Dronkert

"Donald Munro" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

Sorry, my mental facilities are not at their peak late at night after I
receive my 2 pints of hyper-oxygenated blood -

Try http://www.thebigox.com/

"yeahyeah" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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Quoted message said:

Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

That is an interesting possibility. Savoldelli certainly is favored by this
Tour course and George and he could be co-leaders in truth.

Donald Munro said:

Quoted message said:

Sorry, my mental facilities are not at their peak late at night after I
receive my 2 pints of hyper-oxygenated blood -

Carl Sundquist said:

Try http://www.thebigox.com/

Don't tell pound about this, or oxygen will be added to the banned list.