Looking for Race Prediction Chart

I hate to be a smart ass but this sounds like about fifth
grade math. Your common distances are 5K 10K half-marathon
and marathon. You said assuming the same pace for all
events. Using that assumption you would multiply the 10K
time by .5 2.09677 and 4.19355 to predict the person's
time for the 5K half-marathon and marathon respectively.
This basic math runs standalone, you don't need to be
connected to the net, you don't even need a computer or
any other fancy [censored], a $1.95 calculator from Wal-Mart
will work fine and you could really get by with a #2
pencil and a piece of paper.

Mario:

Here's a little piece of the Gardner/Purdy tables. If you
can get the book, it also rates interval workouts by point
level, which is useful...you can even use your interval
workouts to predict race performance.

This was remarkably accurate for me and my friends. I was at
the 730 point level, and my times were within a few seconds
of the predictions.

runnersweb.compurdytbl.htmlOpen ↗

--Dan

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart that contains the
most common

race

Quoted message said:

distances from 5K to the marathon. Using such a chart, a
person could look up their best 10K time and then scanning
across the row, find all the

times

Quoted message said:

they could run at the other distances given they were
exactly as good at those other distances as the 10K.

I know there are a lot of calculators on the net that can
be used to calculate the predicted time for a given
distance. I need all the information in a chart format to
be able to present how the concept works

at

Quoted message said:

a marathon training seminar.

Alternatively, can someone recommend the best calculator
option that can

be

Quoted message said:

run standalone (that is, while not connected to the net)
that is not a browser/java based program.

Thanks, Mario

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart that contains the
most common race distances from 5K to the marathon. Using
such a chart, a person could look up their best 10K time
and then scanning across the row, find all the times they
could run at the other distances given they were exactly
as good at those other distances as the 10K.

I know there are a lot of calculators on the net that can
be used to calculate the predicted time for a given
distance. I need all the information in a chart format to
be able to present how the concept works at a marathon
training seminar.

Alternatively, can someone recommend the best calculator
option that can be run standalone (that is, while not
connected to the net) that is not a browser/java based
program.

Thanks, Mario

tinyurl.com34hazOpen ↗

Phil M.

In article said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart that contains the
most common race distances from 5K to the marathon. Using
such a chart, a person could look up their best 10K time
and then scanning across the row, find all the times they
could run at the other distances given they were exactly
as good at those other distances as the 10K.

I know there are a lot of calculators on the net that can
be used to calculate the predicted time for a given
distance. I need all the information in a chart format to
be able to present how the concept works at a marathon
training seminar.

Alternatively, can someone recommend the best calculator
option that can be run standalone (that is, while not
connected to the net) that is not a browser/java based
program.

I don't understand what your aversion to java is. I have a
program that computes Daniels vdot scores in java and
python. The formula for vdot is VO2 (distance*1000.0 / t ) /
percent_max(t) where
VO2(v) = J1 + J2 * v + J3 * v*v and

percent_max(t)=K1 + K2 * exp(K3 * t) + K4 *
exp(K5 * t)

K1 = 0.8 K2 = 0.1894393 K3 = -0.012778 K4 = 0.2989558 K5 =
-0.1932605 J1 = -4.60 J2 = 0.182258 J3 = 0.000104

To use this as a predictor, you need to either build a table
or invert the formula. My online version is
panix.compredict.htmlOpen ↗

I'd also suggest the WAVA tables. You can download them as a
spreadsheet here:

personal.rdg.ac.ukwavalOpen ↗
ookup.html

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart that contains the
most common race distances from 5K to the marathon. Using
such a chart, a person could look up their best 10K time
and then scanning across the row, find all the times they
could run at the other distances given they were exactly
as good at those other distances as the 10K.

I know there are a lot of calculators on the net that can
be used to calculate the predicted time for a given
distance. I need all the information in a chart format to
be able to present how the concept works at a marathon
training seminar.

Alternatively, can someone recommend the best calculator
option that can be run standalone (that is, while not
connected to the net) that is not a browser/java based
program.

Thanks, Mario

Try this:

cararuns.orgpacechart.htmlOpen ↗

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart

You'll lose.

No, it's a bit more complicated...the problem is what is how
fast a marathon can you run if your 10k time is, say 42:30
(answer: about 3:21). There is a formula, but it's a
logarithmic function, too messy to do on your normal
calculator.

Purdy figured this out as part of his Ph. D. thesis, and
wrote a great little book with Gardner. The table I link to
in my earlier reply shows some of these relationships.

--Dan

"Bethowmuch" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:20040423001237.10667.00000107@mb-
m17.aol.com...

Quoted message said:

I hate to be a smart ass but this sounds like about fifth
grade math.

Your

Quoted message said:

common distances are 5K 10K half-marathon and marathon.
You said assuming

the

Quoted message said:

same pace for all events. Using that assumption you would
multiply the

10K

Quoted message said:

time by .5 2.09677 and 4.19355 to predict the person's
time for the 5K half-marathon and marathon respectively.
This basic math runs standalone,

you

Quoted message said:

don't need to be connected to the net, you don't even need
a computer or

any

Quoted message said:

other fancy [censored], a $1.95 calculator from Wal-Mart will
work fine and you

could

Quoted message said:

really get by with a #2 pencil and a piece of paper.

In article said:

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

I am looking for a race prediction chart that contains
the most common race distances from 5K to the marathon.
Using such a chart, a person could look up their best 10K
time and then scanning across the row, find all the times
they could run at the other distances given they were
exactly as good at those other distances as the 10K.

Quoted message said:

Try this:

cararuns.orgpacechart.htmlOpen ↗

If you try that, prepare to be disappointed if you don't
make your "predicted time".

5k 30:00 ... 30k 3:00:00

Paul

In article said:

I hate to be a smart ass

Good, because you're not being a "smart" anything.

Quoted message said:

but this sounds like about fifth grade math. Your

Or fifth grade reading comprehension.

Quoted message said:

common distances are 5K 10K half-marathon and marathon.
You said assuming the same pace for all events.

No, he said "given they were exactly as good at those other
distances as the 10K."

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

In article said:

cararuns.orgpacechart.htmlOpen ↗

That's not a prediction chart (despite the label), it's a
pace chart. The rows correspond to different paces, not
different levels of performance.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

Bethowmuch <[email hidden]> writes:

: You said assuming the same pace for all events.

No, dip. :-) He said assuming you were equally good at each
race. That does NOT mean the same page. Common wisdom is
that when you double your distance, you pace falls off by
10%. So, for example, given your 5K time, your 10K time is
2.2 times the 5K time, not twice, as your erroneous
calculations assume.

But that what you get for being a smart ass!

Larry

"Dan Stumpus" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Mario:

Here's a little piece of the Gardner/Purdy tables. If you
can get the book, it also rates interval workouts by point
level, which is

useful...you

Quoted message said:

can even use your interval workouts to predict race
performance.

This was remarkably accurate for me and my friends. I was
at the 730

point

Quoted message said:

level, and my times were within a few seconds of the
predictions.

runnersweb.compurdytbl.htmlOpen ↗

--Dan

Thanks Dan,

That is exactly the type of chart I was looking for. Now to
be really picky, does anyone know where I can find that type
of chart with more common race distances like the 15K and
half marathon?

Also, thanks to all the rest for their answers.

In case anyone in the audience will be in the
neighborhood, the marathon training seminar will presented
on April 28 in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario at the local YMCA
starting at 7 PM.

saultstryders.comsaultstryders.comOpen ↗

Thanks, Mario

[email hidden] (Bethowmuch) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

I hate to be a smart ass but this sounds like about fifth
grade math. Your common distances are 5K 10K half-
marathon and marathon. You said assuming the same pace
for all events.

Where did he say that?

Don't worry moron. You're not a smart ass. Not as
smart as I.

tkb

In article said:

"Dan Stumpus" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message -"]news:[email hidden]-
rthlink.net...

Quoted message said:

Mario:

Here's a little piece of the Gardner/Purdy tables. If you
can get the book, it also rates interval workouts by
point level, which is

useful...you

Quoted message said:

can even use your interval workouts to predict race
performance.

This was remarkably accurate for me and my friends. I was
at the 730

point

Quoted message said:

level, and my times were within a few seconds of the
predictions.

runnersweb.compurdytbl.htmlOpen ↗

--Dan

Thanks Dan,

That is exactly the type of chart I was looking for. Now
to be really picky, does anyone know where I can find that
type of chart with more common race distances like the 15K
and half marathon?

Also, thanks to all the rest for their answers.

In case anyone in the audience will be in the
neighborhood, the marathon training seminar will presented
on April 28 in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario at the local YMCA
starting at 7 PM.

At risk of repeating myself, the WAVA tables do include
these distances.

The Daniels charts are based on curves, so you can use them
for any distance but I wouldn't recommend using the Daniels
tables to predict marathon times, as Daniels' numbers don't
work very well beyond a 2hr duration.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

Mario:

If you can get ahold of one of Purdy's books (it was
reviewed back in '97) that would have the whole shebang,
including interval workouts and all standard metric and
running distances.

Do a search for Gardner Purdy running tables and you'll find
it out there.

--Dan

PS: Out here in California, I've never heard of a 15k! It's
5k/10k/half/whole/50k/50mile/100mile and various odd
distances.

"Mario" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Dan Stumpus" <[email hidden]> wrote in
message -"]news:[email hidden]-
rthlink.net...

Quoted message said:

Mario:

Here's a little piece of the Gardner/Purdy tables. If
you can get the book, it also rates interval workouts by
point level, which is

useful...you

Quoted message said:

can even use your interval workouts to predict race
performance.

This was remarkably accurate for me and my friends. I
was at the 730

point

Quoted message said:

level, and my times were within a few seconds of the
predictions.

runnersweb.compurdytbl.htmlOpen ↗

--Dan

Thanks Dan,

That is exactly the type of chart I was looking for. Now
to be really

picky,

Quoted message said:

does anyone know where I can find that type of chart with
more common race distances like the 15K and half marathon?

Also, thanks to all the rest for their answers.

In case anyone in the audience will be in the
neighborhood, the marathon training seminar will presented
on April 28 in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario

at

Quoted message said:

the local YMCA starting at 7 PM.

saultstryders.comsaultstryders.comOpen ↗

Thanks, Mario

"Donovan Rebbechi" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At risk of repeating myself, the WAVA tables do include
these distances.

The Daniels charts are based on curves, so you can use
them for any

distance

Quoted message said:

but I wouldn't recommend using the Daniels tables to
predict marathon

times, as

Quoted message said:

Daniels' numbers don't work very well beyond a 2hr
duration.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

Donovan,

I checked the WAVA tables and they were for age and gender
handicapping, not race prediction.

I will check again. I may have scanned too quickly.

Thanks, Mario

In article said:

"Donovan Rebbechi" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At risk of repeating myself, the WAVA tables do include
these distances.

The Daniels charts are based on curves, so you can use
them for any

distance

Quoted message said:

but I wouldn't recommend using the Daniels tables to
predict marathon

times, as

Quoted message said:

Daniels' numbers don't work very well beyond a 2hr
duration.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

Donovan,

I checked the WAVA tables and they were for age and gender
handicapping, not race prediction.

I will check again. I may have scanned too quickly.

You can use them for race prediction as well.

I have a WAVA based predictory online here:
panix.comwava.htmlOpen ↗

It's simple enough that I can explain how the predictor
works, so here goes:

It works as follows: for each distance, there's a "gold
standard" time, T. For each distance, there's an age
correction factor C. So if your time is t, your rating is

r = T/t * C

one can invert this formula -- if your desired rating is r,
then your required time is

t = T*C/r

You can predict a time, by computing the rating for one
performance and using the inversion formula above to get the
time at that rating for the other distance. So you time
predicted from a performance t1, at a distance with "gold
standard" time T1 correction factor C1, when the race is to
be run over distance with gold standard T2, correction
factor C2 is:

t2 = T2*C2/r1 = T2*C2/(T1/t1 * C1)

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

In article said:

Another dipshit ivy leaguer heard from. Some academics can
turn taking a [censored] into rocket science.

Look, there is more to predicting your marathon performance
than multiplying your 1 mile time by 26.2. If you don't
understand this, you are a moron.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗

Down boy! Why are you having a battle of wits with an
unarmed person?

Larry

Donovan Rebbechi <[email hidden]> writes:
: In article <[email hidden]>,
: Bethowmuch wrote:
:> Another dipshit ivy leaguer heard from. Some academics
:> can turn taking a [censored] into rocket science.

: Look, there is more to predicting your marathon
: performance than multiplying your 1 mile time by 26.2. If
: you don't understand this, you are a moron.

: Cheers,
: --
: Donovan Rebbechi pegasus.rutgers.edu~elflordOpen ↗