There's no good answer to that except "It depends". It depends on how
and where you ride and how often you clean and lubricate the chain. If
you're a 140 lb breath of air with a fluid, high speed spinning style
or a 260 lb gorilla who never gets out of the 11-tooth sprocket makes a
difference, as it does if you ride on dry roads v. dusty, grit-laden
trails or in the wet a lot, and as it does if you painstakingly clean
and lube your chain after every ride v. a once-a-year oiling (whether
it needs it or not!).
I'm 160lbs, not a gorilla, ride on good roads in the dry (as far as
possible) and clean and lube my chain at least 6 times a year. My
chains last me at least several thousand miles, but I never ride them
until they are worn out, preferring to renew them before they have a
chance to do much harm to the sprockets. The best measure of chain
wear is the "stretch" that occurs over time. Again, Sheldon Brown has
words of wisdom:
"The standard way to measure chain wear is with a ruler or steel tape
measure. This can be done without removing the chain from the bicycle.
The normal technique is to measure a one-foot length, placing an inch
mark of the ruler exactly in the middle of one rivet, then looking at
the corresponding rivet 12 complete links away. On a new, unworn chain,
this rivet will also line up exactly with an inch mark. With a worn
chain, the rivet will be past the inch mark.
This gives a direct measurement of the wear to the chain, and an
indirect measurement of the wear to the sprockets:
If the rivet is less than 1/16" past the mark, all is well.
If the rivet is 1/16" past the mark, you should replace the chain, but
the sprockets are probably undamaged.
If the rivet is 1/8" past the mark, you have left it too long, and the
sprockets (at least the favorite ones) will be too badly worn. If you
replace a chain at the 1/8" point, without replacing the sprockets, it
may run OK and not skip, but the worn sprockets will cause the new
chain to wear much faster than it should, until it catches up with the
wear state of the sprockets.
If the rivet is past the 1/8" mark, a new chain will almost certainly
skip on the worn sprockets, especially the smaller ones."
Hope this helps.
Best wishes,
Nigel Grinter
Well-Spoken Wheels Inc.
(www.wellspokenwheels.com)