[OT] James, you're on /.



On Wed, 24 Aug 2005 17:03:59 +0100,
Simon Brooke <[email protected]> wrote:
> in message <[email protected]>, Tim
> Woodall ('[email protected]') wrote:
>
>>
>> Where is likely to be the best place to have land/property[1] in the
>> time scale 0-60[2] years? We are seeing a lot of flooding recently.
>> Gales seem worse than I remember as a child.

>
> Portugal, a few miles in from the coast, and a hundred metres up (a place
> to which I've never been).
>

Sounds interesting - I'll have to get my partner to brush up her
portuguese (she lived in Brazil for a few years as a child) - and I'll
have to start learning too (something I've been considering for a while
as Brazil and China look like they might be the most exciting places for
computing once the European Patent Office gets its way)

>
> If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously


I'm inclined to think that it probably is but I thought that that
was likely to be affected by the decreasing pH and salinity of the
oceans. What sort of timescale are we worrying about here - I had sort
of assumed next century and I'm not going to live that long.

>
> Nevertheless I am going to stay put. This place may become a great deal
> less comfortable, with shorter, wetter winters and bitter winters.
> However, it is my home, and I don't particularly want to have to put
> down roots anywhere else. I may move into a more insulatable house.
> Also, once it becomes clear that western Europe is cooling sharply,
> people living in more favoured places are /not/ going to welcome new
> immigrants - so if you're going to go, go now.
>


I'd love to move but the $$$ now are (hopefully) going to give me more
options later. But if we are going to see tornados and house destroying
hurricanes then I'd like to have some stake in "safe" areas now

Tim.

--
God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = - @B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t,"
and there was light.

http://tjw.hn.org/ http://www.locofungus.btinternet.co.uk/
 
Simon Brooke wrote:
> in message <[email protected]>, Tim
> Woodall ('[email protected]') wrote:
>
> > On 23 Aug 2005 05:04:44 -0700,
> > James Annan <[email protected]> wrote:
> >>
> >> The question is whether you are prepared to bet on this summary being
> >> wrong. The answer still appears to be "no".
> >>

> >
> > Hijacking this thread slightly - I'm willing to bet on the "hotter"
> > side but in a slightly different way:
> >
> > Where is likely to be the best place to have land/property[1] in the
> > time scale 0-60[2] years? We are seeing a lot of flooding recently.
> > Gales seem worse than I remember as a child.

>
> Portugal, a few miles in from the coast, and a hundred metres up (a place
> to which I've never been).
>
> Reasoning?
>
> If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
> knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
> dramatically against a background of net global warming.


Rubbish.

NW Europe is likely to warm a bit less than the surrounding area.

James
 
in message <[email protected]>, James
Annan ('[email protected]') wrote:

>
> Simon Brooke wrote:
>> in message <[email protected]>, Tim
>> Woodall ('[email protected]') wrote:
>>
>> > On 23 Aug 2005 05:04:44 -0700,
>> > James Annan <[email protected]> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> The question is whether you are prepared to bet on this summary
>> >> being wrong. The answer still appears to be "no".
>> >>
>> >
>> > Hijacking this thread slightly - I'm willing to bet on the "hotter"
>> > side but in a slightly different way:
>> >
>> > Where is likely to be the best place to have land/property[1] in the
>> > time scale 0-60[2] years? We are seeing a lot of flooding recently.
>> > Gales seem worse than I remember as a child.

>>
>> Portugal, a few miles in from the coast, and a hundred metres up (a
>> place to which I've never been).
>>
>> Reasoning?
>>
>> If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
>> knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
>> dramatically against a background of net global warming.

>
> Rubbish.
>
> NW Europe is likely to warm a bit less than the surrounding area.


So when the Director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute says:

<blockquote
cite="http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html">
"Our current speculations about future climate and its impacts have
focused on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has
forecast gradual global warming of 1.4° to 5.8° Celsius over the next
century.

"It is prudent to superimpose on this forecast the potential for abrupt
climate change induced by thermohaline shutdown. Such a change could
cool down selective areas of the globe by 3° to 5° Celsius, while
simultaneously causing drought in many parts of the world. These climate
changes would occur quickly, even as other regions continue to warm
slowly.

"[...]Such a scenario could quickly and markedly cool the North Atlantic
region, causing disruptions in global economic activity."
</blockquote>

he's just wrong, is he? It must be comforting to be so certain (and yes,
I do acknowledge that you are an expert in this area and I am not).

--
[email protected] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/


... a mild, inoffensive sadist...
 
On 24 Aug 2005 13:56:05 -0700,
James Annan <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
>> knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
>> dramatically against a background of net global warming.

>
> Rubbish.
>
> NW Europe is likely to warm a bit less than the surrounding area.
>

It's amazing that what you would think of as reputable sources can still
manage to totally distort the issue in the interests of "journalism" :-(

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/05mar_arctic.htm

If the Great Conveyor Belt suddenly stops, the cause might not matter.
Europeans will have other things on their minds--like how to grow crops
in snow. Now is the time to find out, while it's merely a chilling
possibility.


But then given James' reply above I searched a bit more and found this:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=159


Tim.


--
God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = - @B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t,"
and there was light.

http://tjw.hn.org/ http://www.locofungus.btinternet.co.uk/
 
On Wed, 24 Aug 2005 22:28:23 +0100, Simon Brooke
<[email protected]> wrote:

>in message <[email protected]>, James
>Annan ('[email protected]') wrote:
>
>>
>> Simon Brooke wrote:
>>> in message <[email protected]>, Tim
>>> Woodall ('[email protected]') wrote:
>>>
>>> > On 23 Aug 2005 05:04:44 -0700,
>>> > James Annan <[email protected]> wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >> The question is whether you are prepared to bet on this summary
>>> >> being wrong. The answer still appears to be "no".
>>> >>
>>> >
>>> > Hijacking this thread slightly - I'm willing to bet on the "hotter"
>>> > side but in a slightly different way:
>>> >
>>> > Where is likely to be the best place to have land/property[1] in the
>>> > time scale 0-60[2] years? We are seeing a lot of flooding recently.
>>> > Gales seem worse than I remember as a child.
>>>
>>> Portugal, a few miles in from the coast, and a hundred metres up (a
>>> place to which I've never been).
>>>
>>> Reasoning?
>>>
>>> If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
>>> knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
>>> dramatically against a background of net global warming.

>>
>> Rubbish.
>>
>> NW Europe is likely to warm a bit less than the surrounding area.

>
>So when the Director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute says:
>
><blockquote
>cite="http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html">
>"Our current speculations about future climate and its impacts have
>focused on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has
>forecast gradual global warming of 1.4° to 5.8° Celsius over the next
>century.
>
>"It is prudent to superimpose on this forecast the potential for abrupt
>climate change induced by thermohaline shutdown. Such a change could
>cool down selective areas of the globe by 3° to 5° Celsius, while
>simultaneously causing drought in many parts of the world. These climate
>changes would occur quickly, even as other regions continue to warm
>slowly.


But if we leave our fridge and freezer doors open we should be
o.k.,yes ?
 
Simon Brooke wrote:

> in message <[email protected]>, James
> Annan ('[email protected]') wrote:
>
>
>>Simon Brooke wrote:
>>
>>>in message <[email protected]>, Tim
>>>Woodall ('[email protected]') wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>On 23 Aug 2005 05:04:44 -0700,
>>>> James Annan <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>The question is whether you are prepared to bet on this summary
>>>>>being wrong. The answer still appears to be "no".
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Hijacking this thread slightly - I'm willing to bet on the "hotter"
>>>>side but in a slightly different way:
>>>>
>>>>Where is likely to be the best place to have land/property[1] in the
>>>>time scale 0-60[2] years? We are seeing a lot of flooding recently.
>>>>Gales seem worse than I remember as a child.
>>>
>>>Portugal, a few miles in from the coast, and a hundred metres up (a
>>>place to which I've never been).
>>>
>>>Reasoning?
>>>
>>>If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
>>>knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
>>>dramatically against a background of net global warming.

>>
>>Rubbish.
>>
>>NW Europe is likely to warm a bit less than the surrounding area.

>
>
> So when the Director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute says:
>
> <blockquote
> cite="http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html">
> "Our current speculations about future climate and its impacts have
> focused on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has
> forecast gradual global warming of 1.4° to 5.8° Celsius over the next
> century.
>
> "It is prudent to superimpose on this forecast the potential for abrupt
> climate change induced by thermohaline shutdown. Such a change could
> cool down selective areas of the globe by 3° to 5° Celsius, while
> simultaneously causing drought in many parts of the world. These climate
> changes would occur quickly, even as other regions continue to warm
> slowly.
>
> "[...]Such a scenario could quickly and markedly cool the North Atlantic
> region, causing disruptions in global economic activity."
> </blockquote>
>
> he's just wrong, is he?


Note the two "could"s in that, and a "potential".

Compare and contrast with your:

"If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
knowledgable people believe that it is) North-west Europe will cool
dramatically against a background of net global warming."

It is difficult to absolutely rule out just about anything, and
decisions as to the probability are rather subjective, but it is
important to distinguish between the "we cannot rule it out, and so
should consider the possibility" and "we think this (or something close
to it) is likely to happen".

However, I'm not trying to place the blame entirely on your shoulders
for this. Some scientists do seem to focus on the more exciting aspects
of their results, and of course the journalists love it too. Plus, there
is of course room for genuine differences of opinion.

But I'm quite sure that very few experts think that a rapid circulation
shut-down is likely in the next few decades. It was proposed a few years
ago as an interesting hypothesis, and investigated, and basically
debunked. The likely gradual slow-down of the THC does have some
consenquences for regional climate and so is worthy of further research,
but nothing catastrophic is likely.

Here's a quick pointer towards the current state of knowledge, which
(IMO) did not turn up any major surprises:

http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/08/new-thc-paper.html

James
--
James Annan
see web pages for email
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/
 
James Annan wrote:
>
> Compare and contrast with your:
>
> "If the Atlantic Conveyor hypothesis is correct (and seriously
> knowledgable people believe that it is)


Wasn't the whole Atlantic Conveyor thing shot out of the water by a
bunch of Argentinians over 20 years ago?

I thought we'd heard the last of it.
 
Ernest wrote:
>
> But this week you are spoiling my New Scientist with your theories.;o)
>


Wot, this bit?

"Stopping the slaughter of innocent pedestrians

* 27 August 2005
* Mick Hamer
* Magazine issue 2514

Cars could be re-engineered to make them safer for pedestrians. But will
car owners be willing to pay?

TODAY a series of collisions will kill 50 pedestrians on the roads of
the developed world. If this were a terrorist attack it would be
headline news. But you will never hear about most of these victims - it
is just a normal day on the roads.

Cars are increasingly being fitted with high-tech safety features such
as anti-skid brakes and adaptive cruise control. But almost all these
devices protect drivers and passengers rather than the most vulnerable
road users - pedestrians.

Convincing car buyers to shell out on devices to protect themselves and
their passengers can be difficult enough, says Robert LaGuerra of
technology consultancy ABI Research in Oyster Bay, New York. Persuading
them to spend money to protect others is even more difficult.

"Surveys show that motorists are more likely to spend money on an
advanced audio system than on technology to save their own lives.
Pedestrian safety ..."


--
Tony

"I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
Anon
 
"Tony Raven" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Ernest wrote:
>>
>> But this week you are spoiling my New Scientist with your theories.;o)
>>

>
> Wot, this bit?
>


No in Soundbites.

I haven't got to page Mike Hamer on p 22 yet.