Re: Good News For Armstrong

"Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Do you think Armstrong and the others will go along with such testing?

Given the serious questions that have been raised about the EPO test, only
a fool would submit to any testing that wasn't required of them.

Andy Coggan (who is thankful to be off USADA's radar)

Well, we've been around a few times on that one. As to being required,
recall that Armstrong has stated that his urine should be stored and tested
by new technology as it develops. IIRC, the UCI warned that samples were
being frozen for possible future testing. Given that the samples are the
property of the UCI, the riders may not have any choice in the matter.

Any positives found now would probably not lead to a sanction. We'd simply
know many more of the peloton liars. Six positives in 1999 + the
revelations of former employees and teammates with more to come. I wonder
who the other 35 or so from 1999 are. And then there's 1998..........

B. Lafferty said:

Any positives found now would probably not lead to a sanction. We'd simply
know many more of the peloton liars. Six positives in 1999 + the
revelations of former employees and teammates with more to come. I wonder
who the other 35 or so from 1999 are. And then there's 1998..........

Seriously? Does somebody have a freezer full of vintage 1998 urine
somewhere?

"Tim Lines" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

B. Lafferty said:

Any positives found now would probably not lead to a sanction. We'd
simply know many more of the peloton liars. Six positives in 1999 + the
revelations of former employees and teammates with more to come. I
wonder who the other 35 or so from 1999 are. And then there's
1998..........

Seriously? Does somebody have a freezer full of vintage 1998 urine
somewhere?

Apparently so, and it was a very good vintage from initial samplings.

Andy,

As every single test in existence has false positives, why aren't you
arguing for every other test to be thrown out also? Should we also stop
doing pregnancy tests, HIV tests, cancer detection tests, all PED
detection tests just in case 1 in every 1000 of those positive results
is a false positive?

You don't think a false positive HIV or cancer test could stuff you
around majorly?

What about false positives with every single other PED test?

D. Ferguson,

Is Beke's career ruined? He was able to show it was a false +ve. Sure
he had a bad few months but his career is not ruined.

The numbers of false +ve's is very, very low.

The numbers of false -ve's is far, far higher (eg David Millar).

Asking for a test that has no false +ve's is asking for no tests to be
done. Is this how we clean up drugs in sports like cycling?

"Andy Coggan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Do you think Armstrong and the others will go along with such testing?

Given the serious questions that have been raised about the EPO test, only
a fool would submit to any testing that wasn't required of them.

Armstrong has no choice, nor do any of the other riders:

See:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2005/sep05/sep26news4 article on
the French Sports Minister.

"Patricio Carlos" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

D. Ferguson,

Is Beke's career ruined? He was able to show it was a false +ve. Sure
he had a bad few months but his career is not ruined.

The numbers of false +ve's is very, very low.

The numbers of false -ve's is far, far higher (eg David Millar).

Asking for a test that has no false +ve's is asking for no tests to be
done. Is this how we clean up drugs in sports like cycling?

Be careful! You're being too logical for rbr.

On 25 Sep 2005 20:56:12 -0700, "Patricio Carlos" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

You don't think a false positive HIV or cancer test could stuff you
around majorly?

What about false positives with every single other PED test?

Dumbass

Does that information go directly to the whole world or is it private?

Is it a test that can be repeated an indefinite number of times?

"Patricio Carlos" <[email hidden]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

D. Ferguson,

Is Beke's career ruined? He was able to show it was a false +ve. Sure
he had a bad few months but his career is not ruined.

Stupid argument. The main problem of false positives isn't necessarily the
ones we eventually detect (although that's no walk in the park for someone
falsely accused), it's the false positives we don't detect. BTW, you're'
being very cavalier with someone else's career and life. Ask Beke what the
false positive meant to him.

Quoted message said:

The numbers of false +ve's is very, very low.

Please show us the science behind this before you expect us to treat it as
anything but a statement of faith.

Quoted message said:

The numbers of false -ve's is far, far higher (eg David Millar).

Again, show us the science behind this before you expect us to treat it as
anything but a statement of faith. We have no way of knowing that David
Millar was a false negative since the test is only good testing for the
presence of rEPO during a short window. If Millar tested negative outside of
that window, then it was a true negative.

"D. Ferguson" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On Mon, 26 Sep 2005 13:00:45 GMT, "B. Lafferty" <[email hidden]>

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Beke's situation would not fall into the category of false
positives which weren't proven wrong.

Really?!

Quoted message said:

Most would not be so lucky.

How do you know this?

You would argue that most people who have a false positive drug test
in professional cycling would be able to prove that theirs was a false
positive?

They should have that opportunity and they do.

Well I guess you missed the point D. Ferguson,

The reason for mentioning other tests was to remind people that testing
is not this perfect world "only true +ve's & true -ve's thing". It was
not a comparison of effect on career etc. People who demand only
PED-detection tests that have no false +ve's obviously don't know what
they're talking about.

But if you want to talk about effects on careers, what about the
effects on careers of those athletes who couldn't make it because they
didn't want to dope? What about the effects on the lives of those
athletes & their families when they die young from doping products they
felt forced to take to be able to compete?

Patricio Carlos said:

Well I guess you missed the point D. Ferguson,

The reason for mentioning other tests was to remind people that testing
is not this perfect world "only true +ve's & true -ve's thing". It was
not a comparison of effect on career etc. People who demand only
PED-detection tests that have no false +ve's obviously don't know what
they're talking about.

I bet there are studies of the false positive rate of
pregnancy, HIV, etc tests and maybe even of the causes
of false positives on these tests. If [censored] Pound would admit
that doing such a study on his tests was worthwhile, he might
have some credibility.

Quoted message said:

But if you want to talk about effects on careers, what about the
effects on careers of those athletes who couldn't make it because they
didn't want to dope? What about the effects on the lives of those
athletes & their families when they die young from doping products they
felt forced to take to be able to compete?

Dumbass,

Asking WADA to live up to standards of fairness is not excusing
doping. Even a guilty man can be framed.

<[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Patricio Carlos said:

Well I guess you missed the point D. Ferguson,

The reason for mentioning other tests was to remind people that testing
is not this perfect world "only true +ve's & true -ve's thing". It was
not a comparison of effect on career etc. People who demand only
PED-detection tests that have no false +ve's obviously don't know what
they're talking about.

I bet there are studies of the false positive rate of
pregnancy, HIV, etc tests and maybe even of the causes
of false positives on these tests. If [censored] Pound would admit
that doing such a study on his tests was worthwhile, he might
have some credibility.

Quoted message said:

But if you want to talk about effects on careers, what about the
effects on careers of those athletes who couldn't make it because they
didn't want to dope? What about the effects on the lives of those
athletes & their families when they die young from doping products they
felt forced to take to be able to compete?

Dumbass,

Asking WADA to live up to standards of fairness is not excusing
doping. Even a guilty man can be framed.

As a prosecutor once told a jury, "We don't indict innocent people."

Studies of the rates of false +ve's are all well and good but the rate
changes depending on who is being tested. For example - a +ve pregnancy
test on a male is pretty much guaranteed to be false +ve. A +ve HIV
test on a 90 yo nun is much, much more likely to be a false +ve than a
+ve result on a Nairobi prostitute. Yet the sensitivity & specificity
of the test are identical regardless of who it is being tested upon. It
is affected by the pre-test probability in the subject being tested. So
there is generally no standard rate of false +ve's for a test.

Quoted message said:

From WADA's website, they did ~4229 urine tests for Epo in 2003 and got

28 +ve. Some reasons for false +ve's are known from the Beke situation:
exertion-induced loss of alpha 1 ACT & bacterial contamination of the
sample due to improper storage. Both of these are relatively easy to
test for even in a stored sample so someone unlucky enough to be
falsely +ve can prove these without much difficulty.

So for an elite athlete competing at the highest level, which is more
likely (a) doping like maybe 90% of the peloton as Benjo believes or
(b) a rare renal condition plus improper storage of the urine specimen
in a very unlucky athlete? The chances of (b) are very slim, especially
if they've tested +ve on, say, 6 occasions.

Many studies have been/are being done regarding rEpo detection. From a
PubMed search, you can see some of these:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Display&dopt=pubmed_pubmed&from_uid=15228161
Just because you & I don't know the sensitivity, specificity & positive
predictive value doesn't mean that hasn't been studied.

jmt said:

Quoted message said:

Being an Ape is its own reward...

(I'm not silly, you're silly);

jmt

B. Lafferty said:

Whatever.

Whatever happened to snores and hugs ?

"Donald Munro" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

jmt said:

Quoted message said:

Being an Ape is its own reward...

(I'm not silly, you're silly);

jmt

B. Lafferty said:

Whatever.

Whatever happened to snores and hugs ?

A wide awake hug for you....Hug.

jmt said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> Being an Ape is its own reward...

B. Lafferty said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Whatever.

Donald Munro said:

Quoted message said:

Whatever happened to snores and hugs ?

B. Lafferty said:

A wide awake hug for you....Hug.

Time to cut back on those caffeine suppositories.

"Donald Munro" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

jmt said:

Quoted message said:

>> Being an Ape is its own reward...

B. Lafferty said:

Quoted message said:

> Whatever.

Donald Munro said:

Quoted message said:

Whatever happened to snores and hugs ?

B. Lafferty said:

A wide awake hug for you....Hug.

Time to cut back on those caffeine suppositories.

Yeah, they're nowhere near as good as French roast.