Re: Hinault doubts Armstrong can win

Churchill said:

"brian roth" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

found at www.dallasnews.com

Hinault doubts Armstrong can win

Saturday's stage rolled past the birthplace of five-time Tour
champion Bernard Hinault, but the last Frenchman to win the Tour
doubts Armstrong will score the elusive sixth win.

"He has not looked that good this year, and everyone saw how he
struggled in the mountains last year, so I'd say his chances of
winning are only 50-50 at best," Hinault said.

Never mind that Armstrong posted his fastest-ever ascent of Mont
Ventoux this year in the Dauphine-Libere. Or that Armstrong did "OK"
in the mountains in the 2003 Tour- taking the Maillot Jaune on
Alpe-D'Huez, winning on Luz Ardiden by :40 over Mayo and Ullrich after
crashing... I guess "vulnerable" = "didn't win every mountain stage."

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Hinault presents prizes on the podium during the Tour. After
Armstrong's fifth victory last year, Hinault shook Armstrong's hand
and said, "Welcome to the club."

So far, Lance has rode the perfect race. Barring a crash or illness
he should win !!

Well, you have to take Hinault with a grain of salt. He doesn't like
to get beaten, even if he's not racing any more. But Hinault has a
point- the odds of getting through 6 Tours without a sick day, a
serious crash, or just "un jour sans" are tough. Armstrong is facing
a strong field of contenders this year, perhaps more so than in
previous years. The last week of the Tour is going to be *very*
intersting, I think.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Churchill said:

"brian roth" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

found at www.dallasnews.com

Hinault doubts Armstrong can win

Saturday's stage rolled past the birthplace of five-time Tour champion

Bernard

Quoted message said:

Hinault, but the last Frenchman to win the Tour doubts Armstrong will

score the

Quoted message said:

elusive sixth win.

"He has not looked that good this year, and everyone saw how he struggled

in

Quoted message said:

the mountains last year, so I'd say his chances of winning are only 50-50

at

Quoted message said:

best," Hinault said.

Hinault presents prizes on the podium during the Tour. After Armstrong's

fifth

Quoted message said:

victory last year, Hinault shook Armstrong's hand and said, "Welcome to

the

Quoted message said:

club."

So far, Lance has rode the perfect race. Barring a crash or illness he
should win !!

The perfect race? My, you're easily pleased.

--
tanx,
Howard

So far, so good, so what?

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

In article <[email hidden]>,

Tim McNamara said:

"Churchill" <[email hidden]> writes:

Well, you have to take Hinault with a grain of salt. He doesn't like
to get beaten, even if he's not racing any more. But Hinault has a
point- the odds of getting through 6 Tours without a sick day, a
serious crash, or just "un jour sans" are tough. Armstrong is facing
a strong field of contenders this year, perhaps more so than in
previous years. The last week of the Tour is going to be *very*
intersting, I think.

The odd's against of getting through 6 Tours without a sick day are high.

But once you have completed 5 and a bit, getting through the next 12
stages is a much easier proposition.

And unlike flipping coins where the previous 100+ tosses don't affect
the outcome of the next toss, you have to say that in this case having
survived 100+ tosses probably indicates that the probability is lower
for this rider than for a randommly selected rider..

(Stuart Lynne) said:

In article <[email hidden]>,

Tim McNamara said:

"Churchill" <[email hidden]> writes:

Well, you have to take Hinault with a grain of salt. He doesn't
like to get beaten, even if he's not racing any more. But Hinault
has a point- the odds of getting through 6 Tours without a sick day,
a serious crash, or just "un jour sans" are tough. Armstrong is
facing a strong field of contenders this year, perhaps more so than
in previous years. The last week of the Tour is going to be *very*
intersting, I think.

The odd's against of getting through 6 Tours without a sick day are
high.

But once you have completed 5 and a bit, getting through the next 12
stages is a much easier proposition.

And unlike flipping coins where the previous 100+ tosses don't
affect the outcome of the next toss, you have to say that in this
case having survived 100+ tosses probably indicates that the
probability is lower for this rider than for a randommly selected
rider..

Not really, because there are many more degrees of freedom in
something like this than in flipping a coin. Granted that no one
currently racing knows more about winning the Tour de France than
Lance Armstrong (in addition to Bruyneel, who knows more about winning
the Tour than any current DS), and he knows how to avoid many of the
problems that might affect a less experienced rider. But Ullrich has
a similar knowledge base, Hamilton has a good knowledge base athough
he's never one a grand tour, and Heras knows about winning grand
tours.

The odds are against Lance, jingoism aside. No five time winner of
the Tour has won it after the age of 31,and Armstrong is 32.
Armstrong has never had a serious injury in the Tour, and yet this
Tour has had more crashes than average and he's been down, what, twice
already IIRC. The odds of just having a bad day in the Tour increase
with the number of days in the Tour. And we don't yet know who has
what under the hood when the real GC race starts.

That said, I don't think anyone is better prepared for the Tour than
Armstrong. I don't think any team can control the controllable
variables better than US Postal. It's the uncontrollable variables
that are of concern. Luis Ocana crashed out of the Tour in the
Maillot Jaune, descending in the rain. Merckx was punched out of the
Tour by a rabid fan of (IIRC) Bernard Thevenet. Coppi lost a Tour due
to stomach problems, as did Gimondi. Too many degrees of freedom...

Tim McNamara said:

snip...
It's the uncontrollable variables that are of concern. Merckx was
punched out of the Tour by a rabid fan of (IIRC) Bernard Thevenet.
...snip

Are you nominating Lafferty as an uncontrollable variable ?