I'm wondering what your opinions are on Lance Armstrong if he didn't get cancer after the 1996 Tour. I wonder if he would have won in 1997 and 1998. Consider that Jan Ullrich won the Tour in 1997, and Lance would have been in his prime that year (2 months shy of his 26th birthday). Ullrich, on the other hand, was a couple of years younger and possibly not at his best Tour years. Also consider that Lance has beaten Jan every time they have goine head to head in the Tour de France.
The next year, 1998, was Pantani's win, Riis having won in 1996. Lance also beat Pantani every time they went at it together.
If Lance wins this year, in 2005, this scenario might have led to a 9 straight Tour de France champion streak.
I'm wondering what your opinions are on Lance Armstrong if he didn't get cancer after the 1996 Tour. I wonder if he would have won in 1997 and 1998. Consider that Jan Ullrich won the Tour in 1997, and Lance would have been in his prime that year (2 months shy of his 26th birthday). Ullrich, on the other hand, was a couple of years younger and possibly not at his best Tour years. Also consider that Lance has beaten Jan every time they have goine head to head in the Tour de France.
The next year, 1998, was Pantani's win, Riis having won in 1996. Lance also beat Pantani every time they went at it together.
If Lance wins this year, in 2005, this scenario might have led to a 9 straight Tour de France champion streak.
What do you think of that?
Given his weight and work ethic, I doubt there is any chance LA could have won in 96-98. He seems to agree. He's said multiple times that he never would have won the Tour without learning the lessons of fightng cancer.
I don't believe that LA would have won in 1997 or 1998.
The Telekom team of 1996/97 was exceptionally strong in that they had guys who literally dominated the 1996 (Telekom won GC, Points, White Jersey and and 1997 TDF (Telekom won GC, Points, White Jersey and Best Team). They also picked up wins in other races (Dauphine).
Pantani had been knocking on the door for overall winner of the TDF for the five years preceeding his TDF win in 1998. He was podium placed several times. Throw in the fact that Pantani missed 1996/7, it might well be argued that his terrible injuries in those years actually took away some of his climbing prowess subsequently.
No, I don't think LA would have won those years for the reasons mentioned above.
Moreover, I am not sure LA would have won in 1999 had Pantani not being banned a month before in the Giro. And if Zulle had not lost 6 minutes on a flat stage at the beginning of that TdF, LA would have felt much more pressure still.
Armstrong lost a lot of weight while undergoing chemotherapy. Without that weight loss Armstrong would have been incapable of winning the TDF.
Lance weighed in at a stunning 170 lbs this winter, during the offseason. This is how his weight was listed on Discovery's official website during the winter, and his picture was shown there too. That's about 6 kg that he's lost since then before the Tour this year. Frankly, I didn't think he'd make it this year. I had my doubts that Lance would be in top form this year, but I was wrong. He's as strong as he has been in past years.
This brings me to question the idea that he needed cancer to lose the weight. He didn't. That's a myth. He's lost 6 kg just this spring, focusing on training and diet. He would have been able to do this in winter of 1996/97, just as he has done now. I believe he would have been on form to win the Tour in 1997. He already had been warned before getting cancer by Eddy Merckx that he could win the Tour, but he had to lose weight. Eddy told him he wouldn't win if he continued to weigh in like a fullback.
Who would win a 21-day stage race, Lance Armstrong or Hurricane?
Bonus round: What if the Hurricane is named "Hurricane Lance"?
It would never happen. Nike had tried to sign Hurricane but the deal fell threw. The logistics are the problem here. When the race would hit the mountains it would be very difficult to bring the hay wagon up tp the feed station. The water trough ???? Just imagine that. And the race could not be held in France.... I may be wrong, but I was told that the French are fond of horse meat. My personal opinion is that Hurricane might be able to win Paris-Roubaix. And isn't Hurricane more of a cyclo-cross rider?
Lance weighed in at a stunning 170 lbs this winter, during the offseason. This is how his weight was listed on Discovery's official website during the winter, and his picture was shown there too. That's about 6 kg that he's lost since then before the Tour this year. Frankly, I didn't think he'd make it this year. I had my doubts that Lance would be in top form this year, but I was wrong. He's as strong as he has been in past years.
This brings me to question the idea that he needed cancer to lose the weight. He didn't. That's a myth. He's lost 6 kg just this spring, focusing on training and diet. He would have been able to do this in winter of 1996/97, just as he has done now. I believe he would have been on form to win the Tour in 1997. He already had been warned before getting cancer by Eddy Merckx that he could win the Tour, but he had to lose weight. Eddy told him he wouldn't win if he continued to weigh in like a fullback.
I don't think you can compare normal weight loss to the change in his physique after chemo and all that stuff. It is one thing to lose weight. Any of us can do that given motivation and a few months. It is another to change the natural physique of your body (i.e. break it all down to almost nothing, then build it back again in a different way than before). Granted I have no expertise in any medical or physiological field related to this, but it makes sense to me.
As for Lance, I do not think he would have won in 1997 and 1998. I think his fight with cancer gave him the perspective to focus on the Tour.
I think that's another myth--that cancer helped Armstrong win the Tour. Lance won the Tour by overcoming cancer, not by being aided by it. He won it in spite of having been weakened by it, not by being strengthened by it. I believe it strengthened his will, but it would be a big stretch to say that cancer strengthened his body. I believe that Lance had the hunger to win the Tour before he ever got cancer. That's what pushed Lance to come back from the disease. That's why he refused the form of chemotherapy that would have scarred his lungs and lessened his lung capacity, instead opting for the much more excruciatingly painful regime he endured. He wanted to win the Tour. He wasn't just beating cancer. His eyes were on the Tour all along.
the weight. He didn't. That's a myth. He's lost 6 kg just this spring, focusing on training and diet. He would have been able to do this in winter of 1996/97, just as he has done now. .
The weight he lost this spring is no doubt body fat. During chemotherapy Lance lost a lot of muscle mass (around 20 pounds of muscle). His powerful upper body turned into the wuss boy upper body of top climbers.
The weight he lost this spring is no doubt body fat. During chemotherapy Lance lost a lot of muscle mass (around 20 pounds of muscle). His powerful upper body turned into the wuss boy upper body of top climbers.
It wasn't body fat. You should have looked at the Discovery site. He was back to his old ways. When he gains weight, it's muscle, just the same as it always was. Actually, it doesn't take nearly as much calorie deficit to lose muscle as it does fat. The difference is something like 800 Calories to lose a pound of muscle and 3500 Calories to lose a pound of fat. That's why he was able to do it this year and why he would have been able to do it then too.
If he had the body he has today in 98 and maybe in 97, if not I don´t think so.
Certainly he wouldn't have won it at the weight he was pushing in the 1996 Tour. Also, Lance has an incredibly high ratio of slow twitch muscle fiber compared to the fast twitch favored by sprinters. I don't know how long it's been like that. There is scientific evidence to suggest that fast twitch can be converted to slow twitch. I don't know if that happened with Lance. His sports physicians probably know.
