Voeckler a dark horse threat?



A

AMG

Guest
Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
cushion.

Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?

Could be an interesting wrinkle...

AMG
 
"AMG" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:p[email protected]...
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.
>
> Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
>
> Could be an interesting wrinkle...
>
> AMG

Voeckler is going to win the Tour aided by his team, Cofidis and FdJeux. His
team mates and Cofidis riders are all looking for teams next year. A French
win will renew interest in sponsoring cycling in France and will go a long
way in fixing its image in France.

Lance lost the tour today.
 
>Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
>could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
>cushion.
>
>Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
>Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?


IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same level of
the big climbers.
Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be quite a
miracle.
He might be able to keep his jersey until the bottom of the Alps, then I don t
think so.
Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or other
big names take it.

Just my 2 cents.
 
"Shussbar" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> >Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> >could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> >cushion.
> >
> >Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> >Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
>
>
> IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
> Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same level of
> the big climbers.
> Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be quite a
> miracle.
> He might be able to keep his jersey until the bottom of the Alps, then I don t
> think so.
> Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or other
> big names take it.
>
> Just my 2 cents.

It seems so unlikely that Voeckler can hold on through the mountains.
Yes, sometimes the jersey makes the man, and he will be inspired the fans.

And yet -- too many mountains.

Mike
 
Shussbar wrote:

>
> Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or other
> big names take it.
>
> Just my 2 cents.

Well USPS obviously calculated this move as Lance hinted he didn't want
to keep the jersey after the TTT and the posties controlled the pack at
a somewhat leisurely pace yesterday. So what are the tactics? I wonder
if this puts Ullrich and co under more pressure than Lance because if
they want to win they will have to not only beat Lance but start by
chasing down Caser and Voeckler? So now that Mayo is too far down to be
a big threat is the idea to beat Ullrich on the ITT at the Alpe?
 
[email protected]ospam (Shussbar) wrote:

>>Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
>>could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
>>cushion.
>>
>>Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
>>Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
>
>
>IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
>Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same level of
>the big climbers.
>Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be quite a
>miracle.

This is also what they said about Chiappucci in 1990.
But then he finished 2nd and if it wasn't for him following a dumb strategy
in a mid-mountain stage, he would have taken the yellow jersey back home.
 
[email protected]ospam (Shussbar) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>
> IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
> Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same level of
> the big climbers.
> Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be quite a
> miracle.
> He might be able to keep his jersey until the bottom of the Alps, then I don t
> think so.
> Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or other
> big names take it.
>
> Just my 2 cents.

Also, getting this time advantage was not free, as those guys had to do
a lot of work on this breakaway. The last hour was done in a raging
headwind. I rode to Chartres twice and the wind over there can be
incredible, making it just as hard as riding in mountains.

-ilan
 
Am I missing something here? I read that Voeckler finished 5th in the
Classique des Alpes, in the same group as Mayo. I think Voeckler may have
a few days in yellow in the mountains.

"Ilan Vardi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> [email protected]ospam (Shussbar) wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> >
> > IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
> > Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same
level of
> > the big climbers.
> > Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be
quite a
> > miracle.
> > He might be able to keep his jersey until the bottom of the Alps, then I
don t
> > think so.
> > Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or
other
> > big names take it.
> >
> > Just my 2 cents.
>
> Also, getting this time advantage was not free, as those guys had to do
> a lot of work on this breakaway. The last hour was done in a raging
> headwind. I rode to Chartres twice and the wind over there can be
> incredible, making it just as hard as riding in mountains.
>
> -ilan
 
"David Off" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
news:[email protected]...
> Shussbar wrote:
>
> >
> > Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or
other
> > big names take it.
> >
> > Just my 2 cents.
>
> Well USPS obviously calculated this move as Lance hinted he didn't want
> to keep the jersey after the TTT and the posties controlled the pack at
> a somewhat leisurely pace yesterday. So what are the tactics? I wonder
> if this puts Ullrich and co under more pressure than Lance because if
> they want to win they will have to not only beat Lance but start by
> chasing down Caser and Voeckler? So now that Mayo is too far down to be
> a big threat is the idea to beat Ullrich on the ITT at the Alpe?

Before that. Armstrong will attack Ullrich in the Pyrenees on La Mongie and
Plateau de Beille.
 
"trg" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> "David Off" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
> news:[email protected]...
> > Shussbar wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or
> other
> > > big names take it.
> > >
> > > Just my 2 cents.
> >
> > Well USPS obviously calculated this move as Lance hinted he didn't want
> > to keep the jersey after the TTT and the posties controlled the pack at
> > a somewhat leisurely pace yesterday. So what are the tactics? I wonder
> > if this puts Ullrich and co under more pressure than Lance because if
> > they want to win they will have to not only beat Lance but start by
> > chasing down Caser and Voeckler? So now that Mayo is too far down to be
> > a big threat is the idea to beat Ullrich on the ITT at the Alpe?
>
> Before that. Armstrong will attack Ullrich in the Pyrenees on La Mongie and
> Plateau de Beille.

I don't think Armstrong will attack. Ullrich must attack because of the time
differential, and Armstrong will counterattack and will probably put a little
more time in him.

Hamilton has had trouble keeping up the last few years. I wonder what he
has in the tank this year. He could be real trouble for Armstrong if he has
a brilliant day. He usually has at least one.

M.
 
"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>
> This is also what they said about Chiappucci in 1990.
> But then he finished 2nd and if it wasn't for him following a dumb
strategy
> in a mid-mountain stage, he would have taken the yellow jersey back home.
>

Does that make a virtual first win for 'Pooch', or a vitual two time winner
of Lemond?
 
AMG <[email protected]@nowhere.net>...
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.
> Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?

Actually his chances are as close to zero as one can
imagine, but probably 1000 times greater than McEwen's.

Voeckler could not possibly win. He needs a strong team to get
over the mountains victorious. If he WERE a threat then you
know Postal would've reeled him in yesterday.
>
> Could be an interesting wrinkle...
>
> AMG
 
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.

My respect for Abt has now gone out with the wash...


-Ken
 
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.

Sam Abt should quote me: (or study up and gain more Tour knowledge by
being Maso's understudy for a couple years)

"I do not see anyone beating Lance based on form, knowledge,
desire, conditioning, team, experience, maturity, or road skills."

-Ken, 2004.
 
"Carl Sundquist" <[email protected]> wrote:

>"Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>
>> This is also what they said about Chiappucci in 1990.
>> But then he finished 2nd and if it wasn't for him following a dumb
>strategy
>> in a mid-mountain stage, he would have taken the yellow jersey back home.
>>
>
>Does that make a virtual first win for 'Pooch', or a vitual two time winner
>of Lemond?

The first. Greg did all he had to do, el diablo screwed up.
 
Carl Sundquist wrote:
> "Davide Tosi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>
>>This is also what they said about Chiappucci in 1990.
>>But then he finished 2nd and if it wasn't for him following a dumb
>>strategy in a mid-mountain stage, he would have taken the yellow
>>jersey back home.
>
> Does that make a virtual first win for 'Pooch', or a vitual two time winner
> of Lemond?

1990 is considered by some as Indurain first virtual win. He only lost time, 10
minutes, in Alpe d'Huez after pulling hard for Delgado up and down Glandon, and
in the flat towards Bourg d'Oisans. Delgado failed that day and in the Pyrinees
soon became clear who should have been the team leader.

Jenko
 
"K. J. Papai" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> > Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> > could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> > cushion.
>
> Sam Abt should quote me: (or study up and gain more Tour knowledge by
> being Maso's understudy for a couple years)
>
> "I do not see anyone beating Lance based on form, knowledge,
> desire, conditioning, team, experience, maturity, or road skills."
>
> -Ken, 2004.

Well, I hope you are wrong.

Ultimately, someone is going to have to step up to become the next young
superstar. Not like Mayo et all, I am thinking more along the lines of
Jan.He could have won his first tour, and won his second. Why not a 24 year
old Frenchie with a decent palmares? I think this kid shows some promise. He
climbs well.

Last year he lost 5 minutes to Lance on stage 19. If he can get to the last
TT this year also on stage 19 with 4-5 minutes intact.... this years course
is up and down - alot.

I think it would be great to have a tour like 96. As I recall, most experts
were claiming that Mig would win it easy.

Lance winning all the time is boring. Its time for him to chase some
classics.
 
AMG wrote ...
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.
>
> Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?

Most likely he is not a real threat to win it, but I'd say he is a
fairly good bet for a top-ten finish, maybe even near the podium.

The best recent precedent is Andrei Kivilev in 2001. The Kazakh (RIP)
was a solid climber, in very good form (but certainly no star), who
got away in a long breakaway. He had 12-14 minutes over the GC
favorites (including Lance and Jan) when the race hit the mountains,
and held on for fourth in Paris. Francois Simon - also from that
breakaway, but not with much climbing chops - finished sixth in the
final GC (though he had about a 25-minute advantage and the yellow
jersey). I believe Simon rode for the same director that Voeckler
does, so the thought must surely be on some minds.

Of course, it is possible that Voeckler has huge talent that will be
revealed when the race hits the mountains. If this is the case, the
rest of them are in big trouble. Voeckler did win three good races in
just a bit more than a month preceding the Tour. Young riders
sometimes can come out of the woodwork like that - just look at
Cunego.

JMS
 
David Off wrote:

> chasing down Caser and Voeckler? So now that Mayo is too far down to be
> a big threat is the idea to beat Ullrich on the ITT at the Alpe?

Mayo is still a threat if he takes one of the stages in the Pyrenees by
a couple of minutes and then takes 2 mins at the uphill TT.
 
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