Voeckler a dark horse threat?

[Mike Jacoubowsky]

> Mayo is still a threat if he takes one of the stages in the Pyrenees by
> a couple of minutes and then takes 2 mins at the uphill TT.

If you're comparing Ventoux to Alpe d'Huez, you have to consider that
Ventoux takes nearly twice as long to climb, so it may be fair to say that a
similar effort *might* give Mayo a minute on Lance on d'Huez, but not the
two he gained on Ventoux in the Dauphine.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReactionBicycles.com

 

[Ilan Vardi]

AMG <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> cushion.
>
> Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
>
> Could be an interesting wrinkle...

Check out the 1990 Tour in which Chiappucci had a 10 minute
head start on Lemond. If I am not mistaken, Chiappucci had
just won best climber at the Giro and won the best climber
jersey in the Tour the following year. Moreover, Lemond was
probably not as strong in the climbs as Armstrong will be
this year.

-ilan

 

[Sonarrat]

[email protected] (JMS) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> AMG wrote ...
> > Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> > could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> > cushion.
> >
> > Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> > Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
>
> Most likely he is not a real threat to win it, but I'd say he is a
> fairly good bet for a top-ten finish, maybe even near the podium.
>
> The best recent precedent is Andrei Kivilev in 2001. The Kazakh (RIP)
> was a solid climber, in very good form (but certainly no star), who
> got away in a long breakaway. He had 12-14 minutes over the GC
> favorites (including Lance and Jan) when the race hit the mountains,
> and held on for fourth in Paris. Francois Simon - also from that
> breakaway, but not with much climbing chops - finished sixth in the
> final GC (though he had about a 25-minute advantage and the yellow
> jersey). I believe Simon rode for the same director that Voeckler
> does, so the thought must surely be on some minds.
>
> Of course, it is possible that Voeckler has huge talent that will be
> revealed when the race hits the mountains. If this is the case, the
> rest of them are in big trouble. Voeckler did win three good races in
> just a bit more than a month preceding the Tour. Young riders
> sometimes can come out of the woodwork like that - just look at
> Cunego.

I would expect Sandy Casar to do better than Voeckler. Comparing
their two resumes, there's simply no question about it - Casar already
has a 13th place in the Giro to his name. It's too early to make rash
predictions, but it is possible that the defining moment of the Tour
was letting Casar get away.

-Sonarrat.

 

[Ronde Champ]

[email protected] (Ilan Vardi) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> AMG <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> > Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> > could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> > cushion.
> >
> > Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> > Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
> >
> > Could be an interesting wrinkle...
>
> -ilan

Hey,

2003 Tour de France final classification:
#119th Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 3.28.18 back

That is 3.5 hours back in the final GC in the TdF 2003. This year he
might stay within an hour. That is giving him a TON of credit. I'll
probably look like a jackass on that one when he is 2 hours back July
25, 2004.

Thanks,
Ronde Champ

 

[B. Lafferty]

"Ronde Champ" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> [email protected] (Ilan Vardi) wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> > AMG <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> > > Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> > > could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2
minute
> > > cushion.
> > >
> > > Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> > > Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new
risk?
> > >
> > > Could be an interesting wrinkle...
> >
> > -ilan
>
> Hey,
>
> 2003 Tour de France final classification:
> #119th Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 3.28.18 back
>
> That is 3.5 hours back in the final GC in the TdF 2003. This year he
> might stay within an hour. That is giving him a TON of credit. I'll
> probably look like a jackass on that one when he is 2 hours back July
> 25, 2004.
>
> Thanks,
> Ronde Champ

Miguel Indurain:
1986 DNF
1987 97th 2h53'11"
1988 47th 1h03'15"

Ya never know

 

[Ronde Champ]

[email protected] (Ronde Champ) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> [email protected] (Ilan Vardi) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> > AMG <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> > > Abt (NY Times) suggests that Voeckler, who is actually a good climber,
> > > could possibly pose a threat to LA, given that he now has a 9-1/2 minute
> > > cushion.
> > >
> > > Do the experienced tour-watchers think this is a far-fetched idea?
> > > Apparently Lance isn't worried... or he just waking up to this new risk?
> > >
> > > Could be an interesting wrinkle...
> >
> > -ilan
>
> Hey,
>
> 2003 Tour de France final classification:
> #119th Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 3.28.18 back
>
> That is 3.5 hours back in the final GC in the TdF 2003. This year he
> might stay within an hour. That is giving him a TON of credit. I'll
> probably look like a jackass on that one when he is 2 hours back July
> 25, 2004.
>
> Thanks,
> Ronde Champ


Now What??? Stage 13......

 

[Isidor Gunsberg]

"Bob" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<m3xHc.54551$WB5.2466@pd7tw2no>...
> Am I missing something here? I read that Voeckler finished 5th in the
> Classique des Alpes, in the same group as Mayo. I think Voeckler may have
> a few days in yellow in the mountains.

Good prediction! After the Pyrenees, Voeckler still hold the Yellow
Jersey, albeit by a slim margin. Probably, Armstrong would have
preferred to be in Yellow now....

Samuel Abt may not have been as far off base as people originally
thought.

It's unlikely that Voeckler will be able to hold up in the Alps.
But when you consider the big names that have already cracked, he can
still hope for a Top 10 finish. Voeckler has been dropping about 4-5
minutes to Armstrong, per mountain stage. With 4 mountain stages left,
things could get kind of tough for him.

Of course, Armstrong is more concerned about finding a way to shed
Ivan Basso, but the odds are in favor of him doing just that.
Obviously, he can't reckon on beating Basso, just because a stage has
a summit finish....


>
> "Ilan Vardi" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > [email protected]ospam (Shussbar) wrote in message
> news:<[email protected]>...
> > >
> > > IMHO it would be quite a miracle.
> > > Even if Voeckler is not Cipolllini in mountain, he is not on the same
> level of
> > > the big climbers.
> > > Then, the is the 2 ITT, where he will lose time as well. So it will be
> quite a
> > > miracle.
> > > He might be able to keep his jersey until the bottom of the Alps, then I
> don t
> > > think so.
> > > Casar, if he keeps his form, could be in yellow too, before a lance or
> other
> > > big names take it.
> > >
> > > Just my 2 cents.
> >
> > Also, getting this time advantage was not free, as those guys had to do
> > a lot of work on this breakaway. The last hour was done in a raging
> > headwind. I rode to Chartres twice and the wind over there can be
> > incredible, making it just as hard as riding in mountains.
> >
> > -ilan