Where's Lance?

In article
<[email hidden]>,
[email hidden] says...

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"James Thomson" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

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A few flat stages are won by lucky breakaway riders who
time their escapes well, or whose chance of an overall
victory is deemed so slim that the peloton doesn't deign
to expend the energy required to chase them down.

Any

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attempt at a break by a major player would prompt an
immediate response from his rivals and their team mates,
so again, the big names sit tight in the peloton while
the small fry are allowed a little glory.

The mountain stages and time trials are where big gains
can be made. The aerodynamic advantage of the peloton
disappears, and large amounts of time can be gained and
lost. The climbing specialists and overall contenders
fight it out in the Alps and Pyrenees, while the
sprinters either pack their bags and head for the beach,
or straggle home inside the daily time limit to remain
in contention for the green jersey in Paris.

I believe the rule is that the last rider must finish each
day within 10 percent of that day's ride time of the
leader, thus a 5 hr. finish time for the stage win means
that the Lantern Rouge (red lantern, or last rider on the
train, or however it's spelled in French) must finish no
more then 30 minutes back.

The time cut actually varies, depending on the length,
difficulty, etc, of the stage, and it is not a hard-and-fast
rule anyway; they are not required to drop anybody if they
don't want to, no matter how far back he finishes.

....

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"Badger_South" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
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curt said:

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The TTT should be great. I think Hamilton is going to
be Lance's

biggest

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rival this year. Two Americans on the final podium is
not impossible. Ullrich is a threat but I don't think
he can hang on in the mountains,

and

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he's not a great descender. Should be a heck of a Tour,
for certain.

I feel Jan is the biggest competitor to Lance as Lance
himself believes.

I

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really don't feel Tyler is strong enough to really be a
contender...JMHO. Regardless, it was fun to watch today
and I feel it is really going to be

a

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great tour again.

Curt

Most recently the oddsmakers are putting Lance as the
favorite 1:1.6, with Ulrich ~ 2.6:1, and Tyler at
~12:1, FWIW.

-B

Cool. Those guys are usually pretty much on the mark.

Curt

Back up on the podium in yellow, that's where!

Bill "Big Blue Train was absolutely beautiful today" S.

curt said:

"Badger_South" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

curt said:

> The TTT should be great. I think Hamilton is going to
> be Lance's

biggest

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> rival this year. Two Americans on the final podium is
> not impossible. Ullrich is a threat but I don't think
> he can hang on in the mountains,

and

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> he's not a great descender. Should be a heck of a
> Tour, for certain.

I feel Jan is the biggest competitor to Lance as Lance
himself believes.

I

Quoted message said:

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really don't feel Tyler is strong enough to really be a
contender...JMHO. Regardless, it was fun to watch today
and I feel it is really going to be

a

Quoted message said:

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great tour again.

Curt

Most recently the oddsmakers are putting Lance as the
favorite 1:1.6, with Ulrich ~ 2.6:1, and Tyler at
~12:1, FWIW.

-B

Cool. Those guys are usually pretty much on the mark.

Curt

Here's a site which gives the odds as of Sunday w/ Lance -
0.73:1 Ullrich - 3.6:1 Tyler - 6.8:1 Heras - 31:1

readabet.com4980Open ↗

I have only a rudimentary understanding of betting and odds
(read:none) - heh, so if anyone cares to interpret any of
this stuff, feel free. ;-p

-B

In answer to the thread title question, it's way too early
to start either worrying or boasting. I'll follow each stage
but, barring a crash like Mayo's, it won't be *really*
"interesting" until they reach about stage 13 or so. IMO and
looking at the schedule and stage maps, Stage 13 should be
either the beginning or the beginning of the end for Lance's
rivals. Again IMO, Stage 19 could be THE deciding stage.
Personally, I'd like to see Lance win this Tour and then
retire. It happens so seldom in any sport- Miguel Indurain,
Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Jordan... need I go on?- that it
would be nice to see someone exit while still at or near the
top of their game.

Regards, Bob Hunt

Hunrobe said:

In answer to the thread title question, it's way too early
to start either worrying or boasting. I'll follow each
stage but, barring a crash like Mayo's, it won't be
*really* "interesting" until they reach about stage 13 or
so. IMO and looking at the schedule and stage maps, Stage
13 should be either the beginning or the beginning of the
end for Lance's rivals. Again IMO, Stage 19 could be THE
deciding stage. Personally, I'd like to see Lance win this
Tour and then retire. It happens so seldom in any sport-
Miguel Indurain, Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Jordan... need
I go on?- that it would be nice to see someone exit while
still at or near the top of their game.

Won't happen, though, due to the new Discovery Channel
sponsorship deal. Maybe next year?

Bill "don't know enough about racing to comment on first
paragraph (but sure sounds right-on)" S.

Badger_South <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

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The announcers were just talking about Lance hanging in
like 8th place to stay out of trouble and stuff, and I
don't see him in any of the stages, except for the 2nd
place in the Prologue. Yet they're talking about this as a
winning strategy.

How can he do this. Uh, I'm pretty clueless about how they
score and get "points" and stuff, so if there's a FAQ for
TdF dummies, a pointer perhaps?

Do you have to win a certain number of stages, or do you
just hang back and then get a time lead in the mountains
or something?

Sorry for the possibly dumb questions on this... ;-)

-B

You've got a lot of good, informative answers. By now, if
you have followed all week, you will have seen a great set
of tactical moves, and a big strategic alliance, in stage 3.
Lots of tactical maneuvering to get to the front of the pack
before the cobbles, and Hincapie/Ekimov did a great job of
pulling LA into that lead position as the main peleton
entered that segment. The big strategic move came as the
peleton split in that section, leaving many riders including
one of the favored contenders, Iban Mayo, in the rear. With
the possibility of opening up a time gap between a team
leader and a major rival you saw USPS, Phonak, T-Mobile,
etc. turn up the tempo in the front section of the peleton.
Cooperation to put a rival at a disadvantage.

The more subtle strategy of the week was to position USPS as
the top team before stage 4; that gave them 21st position
(last) in the team time trial. Important as they then had
info on the status of the course and how all their rivals
were faring, and could adjust appropriately. You will see
the results of that strategy, and todays TTT results,
mirrored in the current individual standings.

- rick

(Rick Warner) said:

You've got a lot of good, informative answers. By now, if
you have followed all week, you will have seen a great set
of tactical moves, and a big strategic alliance, in stage
3. Lots of tactical maneuvering to get to the front of the
pack before the cobbles, and Hincapie/Ekimov did a great
job of pulling LA into that lead position as the main
peleton entered that segment. The big strategic move came
as the peleton split in that section, leaving many riders
including one of the favored contenders, Iban Mayo, in the
rear. With the possibility of opening up a time gap between
a team leader and a major rival you saw USPS, Phonak, T-
Mobile, etc. turn up the tempo in the front section of the
peleton. Cooperation to put a rival at a disadvantage.

The more subtle strategy of the week was to position USPS
as the top team before stage 4; that gave them 21st
position (last) in the team time trial. Important as they
then had info on the status of the course and how all their
rivals were faring, and could adjust appropriately. You
will see the results of that strategy, and todays TTT
results, mirrored in the current individual standings.

- rick

I'll be on the lookout for these. Unfortunately, I don't
get the OLN feed until the 11th. I've been trying to keep
up with the daily broadcasts web sound broadcasts and
streaming vids.

Can you elaborate just a teensy bit more on the big
strategic move for those of us following along the hard way?
I assume it was to take advantage of the cautiousness in the
cobblestone section? (The USPS strat is pretty self-
explanatory.)

Thanks for the heads up on these, Rick. I'm in serious envy
of those with video, until Sunday, I'm afraid.

-B