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UK and Europe
Published
22 July 2004
Last activity
27 July 2004
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Just zis Guy, you know?
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  1. <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    We are grateful to Annan for spotting the arithmetic error in the
    discussion section of our paper of trends in cyclist head injuries.[1]
    It would be a mistake, however, to allow a minor mistake in the
    discussion to divert attention from the main finding of the paper,
    which was that cyclist head injuries fell during a time of increased
    helmet wearing. Population level time trend studies are limited in the
    amount of inference that can be drawn directly from them, but they
    nonetheless remain a useful strand of information that reinforces the
    findings of the case-control studies[2] and other population
    studies[3] showing cycle helmets to be an effective health
    intervention.

    In response to the comments of Chapman,[4] the accident figures are
    difficult to interpret since any comparison between the crude injury
    rates of pedestrians and cyclists requires some denominator measure of
    how much of each activity takes place. Chapman makes some interesting
    observations about the high profile of cycling injuries, and it is
    indeed a shame that cycling is perceived as a dangerous activity, but
    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious. We would also like to point out that the assumption that
    those campaigning for cycle helmets are not cyclists themselves is
    completely unfounded; one of us (AC) is a highly experienced cycle
    tourist and commuter and a long- standing member of the London Cycling
    Campaign. We also both encourage our children to cycle – wearing
    helmets, of course!

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  2. Just zis Guy said:

    <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    We are grateful to Annan for spotting the arithmetic error in the
    discussion section of our paper of trends in cyclist head injuries.[1]
    It would be a mistake, however, to allow a minor mistake in the
    discussion to divert attention from the main finding of the paper,
    which was that cyclist head injuries fell during a time of increased
    helmet wearing.

    It's great, isn't it. "We were wrong, the data shows exactly the
    opposite of what we set out to prove but we'll keep on believing it anyway".

    James
    --
    If I have seen further than others, it is
    by treading on the toes of giants.
    http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/

  3. On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 06:23:29 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    It's great, isn't it. "We were wrong, the data shows exactly the
    opposite of what we set out to prove but we'll keep on believing it anyway".

    Quite. They are True Believers.

    I am trying to get hold of their reference 3 - it is bound to contain
    errors, since we know perfectly well that no mandatory helmet law has
    significantly reduced head injuries for any age group. My betting is
    that it's based on Scuffham.

    We do need to get something fdone about the Cochrane review, though...

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  4. On Thu, 22 Jul 2004 21:09:36 +0100 someone who may be "Just zis Guy,
    you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote this:-

    Quoted message said:

    <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    Quoted message said:

    Chapman makes some interesting
    observations about the high profile of cycling injuries, and it is
    indeed a shame that cycling is perceived as a dangerous activity, but
    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious.

    Do they provide any arguments to back up this assertion?

    Quoted message said:

    We would also like to point out that the assumption that
    those campaigning for cycle helmets are not cyclists themselves is
    completely unfounded;

    Was that an assertion Guy made? I suspect that he worded it slightly
    differently and this is a distortion.

    --
    David Hansen, Edinburgh | PGP email preferred-key number F566DA0E
    I will always explain revoked keys, unless the UK government
    prevents me using the RIP Act 2000.

  5. Just zis Guy said:


    I am trying to get hold of their reference 3

    You mean this?

    http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/110/5/e60

    Let me introduce you to www.google.com :-)

    James
    --
    If I have seen further than others, it is
    by treading on the toes of giants.
    http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/

  6. On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 06:48:03 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    You mean this?
    http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/110/5/e60
    Let me introduce you to www.google.com :-)

    D'oh! Didn't even think of that - last time I wanted something from
    Paediatrics it was a pay-per-download job, so I just asked my Usual
    Source :-)

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  7. On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 06:48:03 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/110/5/e60

    Still quoting TR&T 1989 as fact, which is a bad start...

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  8. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 06:48:03 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/110/5/e60

    Still quoting TR&T 1989 as fact, which is a bad start...

    Note also Dorothy Robinson's reply.

    A bit more surfing around found the following amusing article which
    also cites that paper:

    http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/9/2/99

    "Can we afford to exercise, given current injury rates?"
    Guest Editorial by R. J. Shephard

    "The alarming toll of head injuries among cyclists could also be
    almost halved if other legislatures were to follow the initiative of
    some Canadian provinces by making the wearing of cycle helmets
    compulsory."

    IMO, the title of Shephard's article alone indicates quite how fully
    IPOnline has its head up its [censored].

    So much for "it is
    indeed a shame that cycling is perceived as a dangerous activity, but
    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious." (from Shake and Vac's reply to our letters). If "alarming
    toll of head injuries among cyclists" is not fear-mongering from a
    helmet advocate, then I'm a banana.

    James

  9. Quoted message said:

    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious.

    That's a bit vague, isn't it. Surely you can't just dismiss someone's
    concerns in this way without some kind of explanation.

    Unless you have no intention of being taken seriously.

    d.

  10. On 23/7/04 10:41 am, in article [email hidden],

    davek said:
    Quoted message said:

    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious.

    That's a bit vague, isn't it. Surely you can't just dismiss someone's
    concerns in this way without some kind of explanation.

    Unless you have no intention of being taken seriously.

    It only takes a few examples to show that people do promote helmets through
    fear..

    "courage for your head', The infamous skull campaign etc.

    Any surveys on how people perceive cycling?

    ...d

  11. Just zis Guy said:

    <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    We are grateful to Annan for spotting the arithmetic error in the
    discussion section of our paper of trends in cyclist head injuries.[1]
    It would be a mistake, however, to allow a minor mistake in the
    discussion to divert attention from the main finding of the paper,
    which was that cyclist head injuries fell during a time of increased
    helmet wearing. Population level time trend studies are limited in the
    amount of inference that can be drawn directly from them, but they
    nonetheless remain a useful strand of information that reinforces the
    findings of the case-control studies[2] and other population
    studies[3] showing cycle helmets to be an effective health
    intervention.

    In response to the comments of Chapman,[4] the accident figures are
    difficult to interpret since any comparison between the crude injury
    rates of pedestrians and cyclists requires some denominator measure of
    how much of each activity takes place. Chapman makes some interesting
    observations about the high profile of cycling injuries, and it is
    indeed a shame that cycling is perceived as a dangerous activity, but
    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious. We would also like to point out that the assumption that
    those campaigning for cycle helmets are not cyclists themselves is
    completely unfounded; one of us (AC) is a highly experienced cycle
    tourist and commuter and a long- standing member of the London Cycling
    Campaign. We also both encourage our children to cycle – wearing
    helmets, of course!

    Guy

    So who wants to do the reply to the reply pointing out how worrying it
    is that supposedly experienced statisticians who now agree that their
    data cannot show a causal link, then suggest the correlation is causal
    anyway. One of the worst cases of "Never mind the evidence, I know the
    answer" I've come across.

    One might point out that cycling head injuries fell during a time of
    increasing cheap airline travel, expansion of the Asian economies and
    other irrelevant increasing factors during that period. What they have
    failed to show is that it is anything other than coincidence.

    Tony

  12. Tony Raven said:

    So who wants to do the reply to the reply pointing out how worrying it
    is that supposedly experienced statisticians who now agree that their
    data cannot show a causal link, then suggest the correlation is causal
    anyway. One of the worst cases of "Never mind the evidence, I know
    the answer" I've come across.

    Well put - I think you've just volunteered :-)

    Quoted message said:

    One might point out that cycling head injuries fell during a time of
    increasing cheap airline travel, expansion of the Asian economies and
    other irrelevant increasing factors during that period. What they
    have failed to show is that it is anything other than coincidence.

    Correct. They have also used the classic Liddite techniques of repudiation
    and misrepresentation. Misrepresenttaion in that I did not say that *all*
    Liddites are non-cyclists, and repudiation in the case of the suggestion of
    fearmongering. A quick visit to cyclesense should prove them wrong here!

    Apparently there is an additional critique on the way.

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

  13. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    We are grateful to Annan for spotting the arithmetic error in the
    discussion section of our paper of trends in cyclist head injuries.[1]
    It would be a mistake, however, to allow a minor mistake in the
    discussion to divert attention from the main finding of the paper,
    which was that cyclist head injuries fell during a time of increased
    helmet wearing. Population level time trend studies are limited in the
    amount of inference that can be drawn directly from them, but they
    nonetheless remain a useful strand of information that reinforces the
    findings of the case-control studies[2] and other population
    studies[3] showing cycle helmets to be an effective health
    intervention.

    In response to the comments of Chapman,[4] the accident figures are
    difficult to interpret since any comparison between the crude injury
    rates of pedestrians and cyclists requires some denominator measure of
    how much of each activity takes place. Chapman makes some interesting
    observations about the high profile of cycling injuries, and it is
    indeed a shame that cycling is perceived as a dangerous activity, but
    to suggest that advocates of cycle helmets promote this fear is
    fallacious. We would also like to point out that the assumption that
    those campaigning for cycle helmets are not cyclists themselves is
    completely unfounded; one of us (AC) is a highly experienced cycle
    tourist and commuter and a long- standing member of the London Cycling
    Campaign. We also both encourage our children to cycle - wearing
    helmets, of course!

    I came across a quote the other day, in a [censored] Francis novel! "entrenched
    views are never changed by the facts" but he didn't attribute it and I can't
    find it in any of my quotes books. But it seems more than slightly
    apposite.

    I have just had a letter from my MP, who has been slightly less than
    enthusiastic about opposing Fat Eric et al, but his letter says that he will
    now oppose any such measure! I will be replying thanking him v much and
    asking if he can get public funding of the Swamp Monster withdrawn and a
    proper review of cycle helmet effectiveness done.
    --
    cheers

    Rich

  14. Reply to burt

    Quoted message said:

    I came across a quote the other day, in a [censored] Francis novel! "entrenched
    views are never changed by the facts" but he didn't attribute it and I can't
    find it in any of my quotes books.

    It may be unfair to the authors of the report, but somewhere in the
    back of my mind is a quote along the lines of "It is difficult to
    persuade somebody of something, when his salary depends on his
    believing the opposite".

    --
    Mark, UK.
    We hope to hear him swear, we love to hear him squeak,
    We like to see him biting fingers in his horny beak.

  15. in message <[email hidden]>, Tony Raven

    (') said:

    One might point out that cycling head injuries fell during a time of
    increasing cheap airline travel, expansion of the Asian economies and
    other irrelevant increasing factors during that period.  What they
    have failed to show is that it is anything other than coincidence.

    Don't be silly, the Asian economies were expanding because of all the
    cycle h*lm*ts they were selling.

    --
    [email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

    ;; It appears that /dev/null is a conforming XSL processor.

  16. On Thu, 22 Jul 2004 22:31:39 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 06:23:29 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    It's great, isn't it. "We were wrong, the data shows exactly the
    opposite of what we set out to prove but we'll keep on believing it anyway".

    Quite. They are True Believers.

    I am trying to get hold of their reference 3 - it is bound to contain
    errors, since we know perfectly well that no mandatory helmet law has
    significantly reduced head injuries for any age group. My betting is
    that it's based on Scuffham.

    We do need to get something fdone about the Cochrane review, though...

    Is that the one Alastair Darling's informing Governmet policy r.
    helmets? (he refers to a 'Road Safety ResearchReport Number 30'😉

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  17. On Fri, 23 Jul 2004 12:34:39 +0100, Tony Raven <[email hidden]>
    wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:
    Just zis Guy said:

    <url:http://ip.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/9/3/266>

    We are grateful to Annan for spotting the arithmetic error in the
    discussion section of our paper of trends in cyclist head injuries.[1]
    It would be a mistake, however, to allow a minor mistake in the
    discussion to divert attention from the main finding of the paper,


    ....

    Quoted message said:

    So who wants to do the reply to the reply pointing out how worrying it
    is that supposedly experienced statisticians who now agree that their
    data cannot show a causal link, then suggest the correlation is causal
    anyway. One of the worst cases of "Never mind the evidence, I know the
    answer" I've come across.

    They seem to feel their analysis' 'minor mistake' does not bear on
    whether their findings show a causal link or not. I'm assuming Annan,
    Chapman et al do.

    I think this discrepancy between views certainly needs aired.

    If only I could be bothered re-reading everything to decide which
    group's correct...

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

  18. Gawnsoft said:
    Quoted message said:

    We do need to get something fdone about the Cochrane review,
    though...

    Quoted message said:

    Is that the one Alastair Darling's informing Governmet policy r.
    helmets? (he refers to a 'Road Safety ResearchReport Number 30'😉

    No, the Cochrane review is written by the Usual Suspects (TR&T). RR30 has
    already been watered down a bit; that was an "independent" review written by
    Towner et. al. - five of the listed authors are linked through a course run
    by the Child Accident Prevention Trust, and the lead author was already
    declared pro-helmet before starting. So it's the political definition of
    "independent", not the one in everyday usage :-)

    --
    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

  19. Gawnsoft said:

    They seem to feel their analysis' 'minor mistake' does not bear on
    whether their findings show a causal link or not. I'm assuming Annan,
    Chapman et al do.

    I think this discrepancy between views certainly needs aired.

    They appear to be claiming that the correlation between more helmets and
    fewer head injuries is evidence to show helmet effectiveness, even
    though a cursory examination of the numbers shows that other factors
    must be responsible for the vast majority of the drop in head injury
    rate. It's a crassly incompetent argument, and I am tempted to reply to
    their reply...

    Quoted message said:

    If only I could be bothered re-reading everything to decide which
    group's correct...

    That's easy, just assume that I am correct. Works for me ;-)

    James
    --
    If I have seen further than others, it is
    by treading on the toes of giants.
    http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/

  20. On Mon, 26 Jul 2004 20:26:36 +0900, James Annan
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:
    Gawnsoft said:

    They seem to feel their analysis' 'minor mistake' does not bear on
    whether their findings show a causal link or not. I'm assuming Annan,
    Chapman et al do.

    I think this discrepancy between views certainly needs aired.

    They appear to be claiming that the correlation between more helmets and
    fewer head injuries is evidence to show helmet effectiveness, even
    though a cursory examination of the numbers shows that other factors
    must be responsible for the vast majority of the drop in head injury
    rate. It's a crassly incompetent argument, and I am tempted to reply to
    their reply...

    Quoted message said:

    If only I could be bothered re-reading everything to decide which
    group's correct...

    That's easy, just assume that I am correct. Works for me ;-)

    Funnily enough, I do. But I like to base any arguments I propose on
    more than assumption. :-)

    --
    Cheers,
    Euan
    Gawnsoft: http://www.gawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: http://html.dnsalias.net:1122
    Smalltalk links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk) http://html.dnsalias.net/gawnsoft/smalltalk

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