A number I'd like to know...



S

Sheldon Brown

Guest
I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.

Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.

How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
then be consumed?

Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
+----------------------------------------+
| Cyclists fare best when they act and |
| are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
| -- John Forester |
| http://www.johnforester.com/ |
+----------------------------------------+
Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
http://harriscyclery.com
Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com
 
"Sheldon Brown" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?
>
> Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
>
> Sheldon "Numbers" Brown


I would think you would need to remove "training" and "racing" miles. I
don't think most people will replace training on a bike with training in a
car. Maybe the number of commuter miles on a bicycle is more appropriate?

--
Pete Rissler
http://web1.greatbasin.net/~rissler/
http://www.tccycling.com
 
"Pete Rissler" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "Sheldon Brown" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> > advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> > a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
> >
> > Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> > bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> >
> > How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> > then be consumed?
> >
> > Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
> >
> > Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
>
>
> I would think you would need to remove "training" and "racing" miles. I
> don't think most people will replace training on a bike with training in a
> car. Maybe the number of commuter miles on a bicycle is more appropriate?
>
> --
> Pete Rissler
> http://web1.greatbasin.net/~rissler/
> http://www.tccycling.com
>
>
Pete,
I had the same immediate reaction (I'm sure most folks will). Wouldn't it
be great if training in a car would work! If you could count that, then
Robin Williams has climbed Alpe de Huez as fast as Lance has! ;-)

Bob C.
 
Sheldon Brown wrote:
:: I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
:: advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
:: a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
::
:: Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
:: bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
::
:: How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
:: then be consumed?
::
:: Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

In my case, zero. I don't ride my bike as a replacement for driving my car.
Bike riding, for me, is for fun and fitness.

So, likely, to get reasonable numbers, you'd have to look at those who
commute by bike, not recreational folks are racers.
 
"Pete Rissler" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "Sheldon Brown" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> > advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> > a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
> >
> > Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> > bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> >
> > How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> > then be consumed?
> >
> > Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
>
> I would think you would need to remove "training" and "racing" miles. I
> don't think most people will replace training on a bike with training in a
> car. Maybe the number of commuter miles on a bicycle is more appropriate?

Or general utility miles -- not just commuting, but running errands,
shopping, etc.

My first thought is that bicycle miles might not be replaced with automobile
miles. Before I took up bicycle commuting, I rode the bus to work. When I
don't ride, I still take the bus to work. It's just not a pleasant trip in a
car, and it costs $25 a day to park in my building. Similarly, if I weren't
riding to places like the post office or the drug store, I'd probably be
walking there -- so again, these are not replaced with automobile miles.

Another thought -- if I weren't riding my bike, then I might be driving to
the health club in the evenings. So maybe there'd be additional automobile
miles to get the same exercise? This would be true even for the training,
recreational, and event miles. Or would we all take up running instead?


Warm Regards,

Claire Petersky
please substitute yahoo for mousepotato to reply
Home of the meditative cyclist:
http://home.earthlink.net/~cpetersky/Welcome.htm
Personal page: http://www.geocities.com/cpetersky/
See the books I've set free at: http://bookcrossing.com/referral/Cpetersky
 
In article <[email protected]>,
Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:

> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?

.... an interesting question. I have, here on the shelf above me,
several USDOT, Census and DOE publications relating to transportation
issues, very up to date stuff.

I tried to synthesize the value:
#cyclecommutes X ave.cyclecommute.distance X ave.car.milage


It turns out to be difficult to get the cycle values. In fact, cycling
doesn't even show up, except as "fatalities: other".

from memory.

..max

--
the part of <[email protected]>
was played by maxwell monningh 8-p
 
In article <[email protected]>,
Max <[email protected]> wrote:

> I tried to synthesize the value:
> #cyclecommutes X ave.cyclecommute.distance X ave.car.milage

ahem.

#cyclecommutes X ave.cyclecommute.distance / ave.car.milage


..max
too little coffee+too little sleep = stupid.

--
the part of <[email protected]>
was played by maxwell monningh 8-p
 
Pete Rissler <[email protected]> wrote:
>"Sheldon Brown" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
>>bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>>How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
>>then be consumed?
>I would think you would need to remove "training" and "racing" miles.

Not necessarily; some of those might be replaced by driving to the gym.

I think "mile for mile" is a fair exchange; it also, frex, doesn't take
into account the tendency for cagers to choose to live further from work.
--
David Damerell <[email protected]> flcl?
 
In article <[email protected]>,
Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:

> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?
>
> Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
>
> Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
> +----------------------------------------+
> | Cyclists fare best when they act and |
> | are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
> | -- John Forester |
> | http://www.johnforester.com/ |
> +----------------------------------------+
> Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
> Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
> http://harriscyclery.com
> Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
> http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com

In my case, my gas consumption would go down. I live in a lousy
location for biking, and have to drive if I want a decent ride.

Overall, my estimate is overall change in gas consumption would be
insignificant.
 
Mark Heiple <[email protected]> writes:

> In article <[email protected]>,
> Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> > advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> > a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
> >
> > Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> > bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> >
> > How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> > then be consumed?
> >
> > Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
> >
> > Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
> > +----------------------------------------+
> > | Cyclists fare best when they act and |
> > | are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
> > | -- John Forester |
> > | http://www.johnforester.com/ |
> > +----------------------------------------+
> > Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
> > Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
> > http://harriscyclery.com
> > Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
> > http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com
>
> In my case, my gas consumption would go down. I live in a lousy
> location for biking, and have to drive if I want a decent ride.

What about it makes it unsuitable for biking?
 
Mark Heiple <[email protected]> writes:

> In article <[email protected]>,
> Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> > advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> > a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
> >
> > Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> > bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> >
> > How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> > then be consumed?
> >
> > Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
> >
> > Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
> > +----------------------------------------+
> > | Cyclists fare best when they act and |
> > | are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
> > | -- John Forester |
> > | http://www.johnforester.com/ |
> > +----------------------------------------+
> > Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
> > Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
> > http://harriscyclery.com
> > Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
> > http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com
>
> In my case, my gas consumption would go down. I live in a lousy
> location for biking, and have to drive if I want a decent ride.

What about it makes it unsuitable for biking?
 
Sheldon Brown wrote:
> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?
>
> Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

It's really only tangentially related, but I've noticed that I use 1/2
to 2/3 as much gas when I'm commuting by bike semi-regularly. That
comes out to saving 1/3 - 1/2 gallons of gas per day, or 120-180 gallons
per year.

Pat "Obviously YMMV" Lamb
 
In article <[email protected]>,
Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:
>I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
>advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
>a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
>Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
>bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
>How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
>then be consumed?
>
>Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

Probably not. And it's even messier -- at least in areas where auto
traffic exceeds the rated carrying capacity of the roads. If all those
bike commuting/shopping trips were replaced by car trips, there would
probably be even more extensive & prolonged traffic tie-ups on roads.
Even with the present cost of gas, the waste of people's time -- along
with the attendant blood pressure increase -- would probably be more
costly to many drivers. Especially to (current) bike riders!

It would also cost 'way more to those who would have to buy, insure, and
maintain another motor vehicle.

So it would be an interesting and partially useful statistic to have,
but it would be incomplete.

-frank
--
 
29 Sep 2004 13:35:07 -0500, <[email protected]>,
Jim Smith <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> In my case, my gas consumption would go down. I live in a lousy
>> location for biking, and have to drive if I want a decent ride.
>
>What about it makes it unsuitable for biking?

I suspect it's a loose bladder or weak sphincter.
Any ride is decent compared to being caged.
--
zk
 
Sheldon Brown wrote:

> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?
>
> Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

I have an estimate, reasonable or not. For the USA:

- Estimated annual cycling distance: 15-21 billion/year
- Estimated vehicle fuel consumption: 20.5 miles/vehicle-gallon
- Estimated vehicle occupancy: 1.6 (passengers/vehicle)

So high estimate for gallons of gasoline required to replace cycling:

(21 billion miles/year) / [ (20.5 mph) * (1.6 passengers) ]

640 million gallons per year

--
terry morse Palo Alto, CA http://bike.terrymorse.com/
 
"Sheldon Brown" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?
>
> Anybody have a reasonable estimate?

http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/survey/commuter.htm
http://www.ti.org/commutingnumbers.html
http://www.bicyclecoalition.org/presentations/bicyclesbythenumbers.ppt
http://www.bikeleague.org/educenter/hr1265.htm
http://www.reddirtpedalers.com/WheelIssues/DisplayReprint.asp?id=182
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/c2kbr-33.pdf

The 2000 census estimates about half a million bike commuters (.4%), they
don't give distance, only commute time. If you take their numbers, and
estimate 5 miles each way, that's 5M mi/day, at say 18 mpg, you'd have a
little less than 300K gal/day. The US consumes around 400M gal/day.

Auto commuters probably travel perhaps twice the distance, with about 100M
commuting vehicles/day, so that's 2B mi/day, which says commuting burns
about 1/4 the total gasoline consumption, which agrees pretty well with the
bike non-consumption estimate. The net is, that if all bike commuters
started driving, gas consumption would go up 0.1% perhaps.
 
Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote in news:415AD8A2.2050200
@sheldonbrown.com:

> I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
>
> Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
> How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> then be consumed?

do cyclists drive SUVs, or would they be riding motorbikes (I'm thinking of
a certain lugged stem-builder here) instead?

--
to email me, run my email address through /usr/bin/caesar
(or rotate by -4)
 
On Wed, 29 Sep 2004 11:45:38 -0400, Sheldon Brown
<[email protected]> wrote:


>Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
>bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
>
>How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
>then be consumed?

Why do you hate America so much?

JT

PS - I'm joking.

****************************
Remove "remove" to reply
Visit http://www.jt10000.com
****************************
 
In article <[email protected]>,
John Forrest Tomlinson <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Wed, 29 Sep 2004 11:45:38 -0400, Sheldon Brown
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
> >Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> >bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> >
> >How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> >then be consumed?
>
> Why do you hate America so much?
>
> JT
>
> PS - I'm joking.


No you're not, you Neanderthal. :)
 
In article <[email protected]>,
Jim Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

> Mark Heiple <[email protected]> writes:
>
> > In article <[email protected]>,
> > Sheldon Brown <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > > I'm thinking there is a number that might be useful to cycling
> > > advocates, but I don't have the data to calculate it or even to make
> > > a reasonable estimate...but maybe someone on the list does.
> > >
> > > Suppose that bicycles were totally banned, and that every mile of
> > > bicycle travel was then replaced by an automobile trip.
> > >
> > > How many additional gallons of gasoline per day or per year would
> > > then be consumed?
> > >
> > > Anybody have a reasonable estimate?
> > >
> > > Sheldon "Numbers" Brown
> > > +----------------------------------------+
> > > | Cyclists fare best when they act and |
> > > | are treated as drivers of vehicles. |
> > > | -- John Forester |
> > > | http://www.johnforester.com/ |
> > > +----------------------------------------+
> > > Harris Cyclery, West Newton, Massachusetts
> > > Phone 617-244-9772 FAX 617-244-1041
> > > http://harriscyclery.com
> > > Hard-to-find parts shipped Worldwide
> > > http://captainbike.com http://sheldonbrown.com
> >
> > In my case, my gas consumption would go down. I live in a lousy
> > location for biking, and have to drive if I want a decent ride.
>
> What about it makes it unsuitable for biking?

Lousy, urban, narrow, broken up roads, with heavy traffic.
 
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