Can Lance win the Ironman?



wolfix said:
http://ironmanexplorer.msn.com/article.aspx?aid=21&GT1=7337

I say yes...... He was a national contender as a teenager and he understands the determination.
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I say no.

His run always let him down as a triathlete according to one of his peers (there was a feature in one of the British bike mags about his tri exploits as part of a LA retrospective). Then there's the heat of Kona - LA admits he doesn't like extreme heat. Plus LA had to live the life of a lab rat to achieve what he achieved in le Tour. Faris al Sultan trains on Taco Bell and Coke and is studying for a Masters Degree in Arabic language and culture at the same time. And he's 27/28 years old. He's only going to get stronger while Armstorng would be playing catch up.

It would certainly be interesting to watch...as long as he didn't do it in Speedos!
 
Whats the drug testing like in the Ironman... I think he'll have a better chance of using EPO and not being detected in the Ironman than cycling....

artmichalek said:
He's lost a lot of upper body mass since then. It would take a lot of training for him to be fast in the water again. Might be interesting to see though.
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guncha said:
Lance is the Man Machiene not the Ironman!
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He said in an interview that THIS is the most often asked question.
He will never try because he always wanted to go out on top which he did in cycling.

His age is not bad for an Ironman contender, in fact just about perfect. Compare Dave Scott etc.

The volume of training he has done over the past seven years would put him at the very fittest aerobic endurance athlete in the world. Remember, compared to most triathletes, he is aerobic 6 days a week, four to 8 hours a day, 10 months a years. Quite an advantage in terms of preparing for an event which runs an hour or two longer than a typical tour stage. He does twenty of those every summer at race pace, triathletes dont.

His ability to peak for an event and to mentally ruin his opponents would place him as the top contender, so he would have that advantge as well.
He would bulk up immediately if he trained his swim and he was a very fast swimmer, almost always first out of the water. The swim would not be a problem.

His run was only relatively slow compared to the fastest runners in the world, but he hasnt run in many years.

On the other hand, he would have the fastest bike leg ever given his efficiency and would win the bike leg by such a margin he probably could win on that alone. He is after all the best time trialist in the world, so if Chann McCrae could kill the bike leg, imagine what the very best in the world could do.
He has said he might sneak into a marathon and try to break 2:15, does anyone here think that is slow?

Too bad we will never see him do it. But the very best coaches always said his cycling was a level above his swimming and running, and maybe two levels above the run.
 
bobke said:
He is after all the best time trialist in the world...
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That's subjective. He's never won the World TT Championship. Last time he competed at the Olympics he was third in the TT behind Ekimov and Ulrich. But then, none of these races were on courses nearly as long as the bike leg of the Ironman.
 
bobke said:
He has said he might sneak into a marathon and try to break 2:15, does anyone here think that is slow?
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If his hip joints are in as bad a shape as it says in 'Lance Armstrong's War' then he'll stay well clear of his running shoes.

But then again perhaps if enough people say he can't do it he might have a go just to prove us wrong.
 
bobke said:
He said in an interview that THIS is the most often asked question.
He will never try because he always wanted to go out on top which he did in cycling.

His age is not bad for an Ironman contender, in fact just about perfect. Compare Dave Scott etc.

The volume of training he has done over the past seven years would put him at the very fittest aerobic endurance athlete in the world. Remember, compared to most triathletes, he is aerobic 6 days a week, four to 8 hours a day, 10 months a years. Quite an advantage in terms of preparing for an event which runs an hour or two longer than a typical tour stage. He does twenty of those every summer at race pace, triathletes dont.

His ability to peak for an event and to mentally ruin his opponents would place him as the top contender, so he would have that advantge as well.
He would bulk up immediately if he trained his swim and he was a very fast swimmer, almost always first out of the water. The swim would not be a problem.

His run was only relatively slow compared to the fastest runners in the world, but he hasnt run in many years.

On the other hand, he would have the fastest bike leg ever given his efficiency and would win the bike leg by such a margin he probably could win on that alone. He is after all the best time trialist in the world, so if Chann McCrae could kill the bike leg, imagine what the very best in the world could do.
He has said he might sneak into a marathon and try to break 2:15, does anyone here think that is slow?

Too bad we will never see him do it. But the very best coaches always said his cycling was a level above his swimming and running, and maybe two levels above the run.
Click to expand...

No doubt he is fit but no fitter than a few dozen other athletes in the world who compete at the highest levels in triathlon. Training on a bike is much easier on the body than running. His volume of training when at his peak as a cyclist (time spent) would be less than most professional triathletes.

Armstrong has a great motor and he knows how to race outside his comfort zone but then so do many athletes who compete in ironman.

Maybe he needs to see how competitive he is in shorter races first.
 
mitosis said:
No doubt he is fit but no fitter than a few dozen other athletes in the world who compete at the highest levels in triathlon. Training on a bike is much easier on the body than running. His volume of training when at his peak as a cyclist (time spent) would be less than most professional triathletes.

Armstrong has a great motor and he knows how to race outside his comfort zone but then so do many athletes who compete in ironman.

Maybe he needs to see how competitive he is in shorter races first.
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He won the American Sprint distance triathlon at age 18, if thats what you mean about how he would do at shorter distances.
He WON it. Get it?

He will never race again. Story over.

How do you figure his time on a bike when at peak training is less than triathletes. Precisely because when he previews the TdF stages say on a mountain stage he may do 7-8 hours, repeated over the whole week on a training camp, in May. I think that volume of trainign is well beyond what most triathletes do. So yes, he is fitter than any endurance athlete in the world and I think 7, count them, 7 TdFs in a row proves that, but no matter, you wouldnt believe it anyhow.

So ask any triathlte who has won Ironman what they think of Lance. Ask Dave Scott or Mark Allen. remember, he was shadowing them and chasing them at close range in shorter triathlons when THEY were at their peak and he was 16 and 17 years old.
Think about it. Can you think of ny male endurance sports where that kind of talent has decalred itself recently, besides Greg Lemond.
 
bobke said:
He won the American Sprint distance triathlon at age 18, if thats what you mean about how he would do at shorter distances.
He WON it. Get it?

He will never race again. Story over.

How do you figure his time on a bike when at peak training is less than triathletes. Precisely because when he previews the TdF stages say on a mountain stage he may do 7-8 hours, repeated over the whole week on a training camp, in May. I think that volume of trainign is well beyond what most triathletes do. So yes, he is fitter than any endurance athlete in the world and I think 7, count them, 7 TdFs in a row proves that, but no matter, you wouldnt believe it anyhow.

So ask any triathlte who has won Ironman what they think of Lance. Ask Dave Scott or Mark Allen. remember, he was shadowing them and chasing them at close range in shorter triathlons when THEY were at their peak and he was 16 and 17 years old.
Think about it. Can you think of ny male endurance sports where that kind of talent has decalred itself recently, besides Greg Lemond.
Click to expand...

I'm fully aware of his record in triathlon. Unfortunately it stops about 18 years ago.

There is no doubting his potential but 18 years is a long time between drinks.

I'm not saying he wouldn't do all right in tris, just that he has a lot of catching up to do.

7-8 hours a day training is nothing for elite trithletes. The fact that they include running in that training puts them ahead of cyclists.

As for being fitter than any endurance athlete in the world - you just demonstrated you have no idea what you are talking about.

He might be one of the most gifted athletes in the world but there are hundreds of people, maybe thousands across the world who are as fit or fitter. :rolleyes:
 
I am not sure whether Lance would win, I am also not sure how fast he would run a marathon, a topic that has also been debated. I guess on either feat, it would depend on whether he wanted to train all out or act like a weekend warrior and do it for fun.

I am totally interested in seeing both of these happen. I get a major kick out of Jalabert running New York. Regardless of how hard he trained, I would be interested to see how he would do in both of these. The triathlon community feels Lance owes them one ironman because he left them so long ago to focus on cycling. Just for old times' sake.

Ok, that aside, how would he do??? A guy named Steve Larsen who was a great mt. biker, and solid American road cyclist switched over to triathlon and just retired. He trained by doing road cycling races around the US in between Ironman events. He was an average swimmer, absolutely crushed on the bike, and was an average runner. He spent almost no time running or swimming. He lead basically every race off the bike and managed to win his first ironman... then didn't win again. He started cycling with Lance in that colorado scene years ago so he has serious bike talent. He was head and shoulders above everyone in triathlon on the bike. One year at Wildflower (a very tough half ironman bike course that draws the best in the world), he was 2 miles per hour ahead of the second fastest bike leg in the race. Of course, he was run down by about four guys. Anyway, makes it seem that it would be interesting to see the gap Lance could open up on the bike leg regardless of how he ran or swam.

Just speculation..... for now.
 
That's too funny - once a triathelete always a triathelete.

Now, back to real cycling news...
 
bobke said:
He said in an interview that THIS is the most often asked question.
His run was only relatively slow compared to the fastest runners in the world, but he hasnt run in many years.

On the other hand, he would have the fastest bike leg ever given his efficiency and would win the bike leg by such a margin he probably could win on that alone. He is after all the best time trialist in the world, so if Chann McCrae could kill the bike leg, imagine what the very best in the world could do.
He has said he might sneak into a marathon and try to break 2:15, does anyone here think that is slow?

Too bad we will never see him do it. But the very best coaches always said his cycling was a level above his swimming and running, and maybe two levels above the run.
Click to expand...

If Lance was to do the bike leg of a triathlon exactly the same way as he does a TT in the TdF he probably wouldn't be able to finish. The TdF and ironman competitions are very different beasts. In a TdF TT the goal is to go all out expending the maximum amount of energy to get yourself to the finish (something Lance was very good at). In an Ironman, while you definetly need to go fast in the bike leg, you also need to make sure you save enough energy for the 42km run part that comes right after. Like I said, a very different beast.
 
He has the genetic background to win the event

If I was the coach in charge of helping him, I would put him away from the bike for at least one year. Running regiment only, with technical swimming.

Only then, would I know about his real chances of winning Kona.

On the bike, he doesn't have to develop anything, he is already over the level of the top triathletes. That is why I would put him away from biking for at least a year.

I guess that is all I got to say about it, until he actually calls me, so we can try it.:D
 
A athlete is an athlete. If he is smart enough to win the TDF 7 times and smart enough to win the World's , he would be able to figure out the bike leg of a tri..... I honestly believe he would be a contender, but I think age would hold him back from winning. 5 years ago , I would bet money on him. Today, he is running out of time.
 
wolfix said:
A athlete is an athlete. If he is smart enough to win the TDF 7 times and smart enough to win the World's , he would be able to figure out the bike leg of a tri..... I honestly believe he would be a contender, but I think age would hold him back from winning. 5 years ago , I would bet money on him. Today, he is running out of time.
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I agree. Because IMO, 3 years would be required, two years running/swimming, and one year of triathlon specific preparation.
 
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