Peak oil

[dave]

vaudegiant wrote:
>>"The Economist" had a whole special issue on "peak oil". It very
>>thoroughly debunked the whole concept. Oil won't run out soon because
>>we already know we have lots of it.
>>
>>It is your classic media frenzy beat-up that serves only to titillate,
>>drive fear/greed and sell newspapers, sell advertising. In short it is
>>a total heap of ****.
>
>
> Well The Economist would say that, wouldn't they. I don't know of
> anyone who has said that oil will 'run out'. Peak oil is about oil
> becoming very, very expensive, nothing more.
>
>
>
>>It does not get replenished, replaced
>>
>>Well it does. It came from somewhere after all. It just takes a while
>>
>>Dave
>
>
> Please explain how substance that formed several hundreds of million
> years ago, in very particular geological circumstances, is being
> replaced as fast as we are using it?


Please explain where I use the words "as fast as we are using it"

Thats actually a point. Its a joke. Get it? As far as I know no
one knows exactly the circumstances that created oil but it took a long
time (some authorities said mere 'millions' of years) and is still
going on somewhere. At least that was what people were thinking when I
did chem.

I get all huffy when people edit what I said. And to misquote, "you
wouldnt like me when I get huffy. An apology would be really nice.

Dave

 

[Mike]

AndrewJ wrote:
> Supply and demand still apply.

Of course. Nobody says the oil will stop flowing. But even if supply
levels out, it could be a disaster.

> So either you won't work or
> you will find another job closer to home, or you'll take the train.

And if millions of people do this 'overnight' (e.g. a few years), we
could be talking major economic effects. How long will it take to
build a rail infrastructure? To move millions of people from sprawling
suburbs to apartments?

Look at it this way: how much less oil are we using since petrol prices
doubled from 70c to $1.40? None at all! How many times must prices
double before usage halves? $5/L ? Demand is not very elastic.
So all those houses in the mortgage belt plummet in value. Negative
equity, bankruptcies, ...
Will it happen? I know that economic projections are very difficult,
and "common sense" isn't much help.

> oil gets scarcer, it gets more expensive, but it may actually last a
> very long time.

infinite actually, as you can synthesize it. Its a question of cost.

> Or, how evil is a car? Is it just a totem for satan, or is it the very

Cars aren't evil. SUVs are evil. And GMH more so, if the new Commode is
bigger and heavier than the last.

 

[Tamyka Bell]

Theo Bekkers wrote:
>
> "ritcho" wrote
>
> > There is? I look forward to steam-powered air travel!
>
> The Warp-Drive is coming soon.

Who needs steam-power, we have teleportation. Granted, it's just
photons... but it can't be too hard to turn yourself into just photons,
can it?

Tam

 

[AndrewJ]

Most places on the planet will adapt quite well to very expensive fuel.
After all, they were built before cheap petrol became available.
Consider the larger cities such as Tokyo, Paris. Very little of their
viability is linked to oil.

Then consider larger American cities, and Australian cities. With
petrol prices of $10 per litre, all major Australian cities may grind
to a halt.

So, in the nature of karma, as the price of oil rises, then rises, then
rises some more, there will be winners and losers. Peak oil may be a
myth, but you would have to say that the average Australia city
becomes completely non-viable without cheap fuel. Australian cities
(and the Australian economy - remember the tyranny of distance?) may be
very big losers in this process.

Time to start doubling (tripling?) the public transport infrastructure,
with multi-level bicycle parking at every train station.

On the bright side, in the future we will have Nepean Highway with
three bicycle lanes, and one poorly defined car lane at the far left.
At every intersection the cars have to wait extra long at their special
lane, and there are etags charging them $5 per kilometer to fund the
public transport. When they get to a roundabout, there is no car lane.

Who knows, it may well come to pass....



Mike wrote:
> AndrewJ wrote:
> > Supply and demand still apply.
>
> Of course. Nobody says the oil will stop flowing. But even if supply
> levels out, it could be a disaster.
>
> > So either you won't work or
> > you will find another job closer to home, or you'll take the train.
>
> And if millions of people do this 'overnight' (e.g. a few years), we
> could be talking major economic effects. How long will it take to
> build a rail infrastructure? To move millions of people from sprawling
> suburbs to apartments?
>
> Look at it this way: how much less oil are we using since petrol prices
> doubled from 70c to $1.40? None at all! How many times must prices
> double before usage halves? $5/L ? Demand is not very elastic.
> So all those houses in the mortgage belt plummet in value. Negative
> equity, bankruptcies, ...
> Will it happen? I know that economic projections are very difficult,
> and "common sense" isn't much help.
>
> > oil gets scarcer, it gets more expensive, but it may actually last a
> > very long time.
>
> infinite actually, as you can synthesize it. Its a question of cost.
>
> > Or, how evil is a car? Is it just a totem for satan, or is it the very
>
> Cars aren't evil. SUVs are evil. And GMH more so, if the new Commode is
> bigger and heavier than the last.

 

[Tamyka Bell]

AndrewJ wrote:
>
> Most places on the planet will adapt quite well to very expensive fuel.
> After all, they were built before cheap petrol became available.
> Consider the larger cities such as Tokyo, Paris. Very little of their
> viability is linked to oil.
>
> Then consider larger American cities, and Australian cities. With
> petrol prices of $10 per litre, all major Australian cities may grind
> to a halt.
>
> So, in the nature of karma, as the price of oil rises, then rises, then
> rises some more, there will be winners and losers. Peak oil may be a
> myth, but you would have to say that the average Australia city
> becomes completely non-viable without cheap fuel. Australian cities
> (and the Australian economy - remember the tyranny of distance?) may be
> very big losers in this process.
>
> Time to start doubling (tripling?) the public transport infrastructure,
> with multi-level bicycle parking at every train station.
>
> On the bright side, in the future we will have Nepean Highway with
> three bicycle lanes, and one poorly defined car lane at the far left.
> At every intersection the cars have to wait extra long at their special
> lane, and there are etags charging them $5 per kilometer to fund the
> public transport. When they get to a roundabout, there is no car lane.
>
> Who knows, it may well come to pass....

I like your planet, can I come live there?

Tam

 

[AndrewJ]

Ah, you gotta dream

Tamyka Bell wrote:
> AndrewJ wrote:
> >
> > Most places on the planet will adapt quite well to very expensive fuel.
> > After all, they were built before cheap petrol became available.
> > Consider the larger cities such as Tokyo, Paris. Very little of their
> > viability is linked to oil.
> >
> > Then consider larger American cities, and Australian cities. With
> > petrol prices of $10 per litre, all major Australian cities may grind
> > to a halt.
> >
> > So, in the nature of karma, as the price of oil rises, then rises, then
> > rises some more, there will be winners and losers. Peak oil may be a
> > myth, but you would have to say that the average Australia city
> > becomes completely non-viable without cheap fuel. Australian cities
> > (and the Australian economy - remember the tyranny of distance?) may be
> > very big losers in this process.
> >
> > Time to start doubling (tripling?) the public transport infrastructure,
> > with multi-level bicycle parking at every train station.
> >
> > On the bright side, in the future we will have Nepean Highway with
> > three bicycle lanes, and one poorly defined car lane at the far left.
> > At every intersection the cars have to wait extra long at their special
> > lane, and there are etags charging them $5 per kilometer to fund the
> > public transport. When they get to a roundabout, there is no car lane.
> >
> > Who knows, it may well come to pass....
>
> I like your planet, can I come live there?
>
> Tam

 

[dave]

Tamyka Bell wrote:
> Theo Bekkers wrote:
>
>>"ritcho" wrote
>>
>>
>>>There is? I look forward to steam-powered air travel!
>>
>>The Warp-Drive is coming soon.
>
>
> Who needs steam-power, we have teleportation. Granted, it's just
> photons... but it can't be too hard to turn yourself into just photons,
> can it?
>
> Tam


probably not impossible. Vaporising onself would have to turn some %
into photons. Now turning onself back from photons I suspect that
bits the tricky bit

Dave

 

[Donga]

cfsmtb wrote:

> There's a few loony tunes predicting the end is nigh, we're all gonna
> be rooned or something. What scares me is that PO has finally hit the
> mainstream media and the fuggin' spammers have caught on. We *are*
> stuffed.

Bored too.
:O

 

[TimC]

On 2006-07-26, Mike (aka Bruce)
was almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea:
> AndrewJ wrote:
>> oil gets scarcer, it gets more expensive, but it may actually last a
>> very long time.
>
> infinite actually, as you can synthesize it. Its a question of cost.

And energy.

It's not a fuel crisis, people. It's an energy crisis.

--
TimC
> As you know, Linus took the word the penguins kept saying over and
> over again, rot13'ed it, and used that as the name of his OS.
So, who's going to record this .au file:
"Hello, my name is Yvahf Gbeinyqf, and I pronounce yvahk, yvahk."
-- Anthony de Boer && Michel Buijsman in ASR

 

[giantvaude]

Please explain where I use the words "as fast as we are using it"

Thats actually a point. Its a joke. Get it? As far as I know no
one knows exactly the circumstances that created oil but it took a long
time (some authorities said mere 'millions' of years) and is still
going on somewhere. At least that was what people were thinking when I
did chem.

I get all huffy when people edit what I said. And to misquote, "you
wouldnt like me when I get huffy. An apology would be really nice.

Dave

Please accept my most humble of apologies. And please explain what the statement "...and is still going on somewhere", means. Are you suggesting that oil is still being formed and thus peak oil won't occur????


Pat

 

[dave]

giantvaude wrote:
>>
>>Please explain where I use the words "as fast as we are using it"
>>
>>Thats actually a point. Its a joke. Get it? As far as I know no
>>one knows exactly the circumstances that created oil but it took a long
>>time (some authorities said mere 'millions' of years) and is still
>>going on somewhere. At least that was what people were thinking when I
>>did chem.
>>
>>I get all huffy when people edit what I said. And to misquote, "you
>>wouldnt like me when I get huffy. An apology would be really nice.
>>
>>Dave
>
> Please accept my most humble of apologies. And please explain what the
> statement "...and is still going on somewhere", means. Are you
> suggesting that oil is still being formed and thus peak oil won't
> occur????
>

I am suggesting that oil is still being formed. Of course it is.
Somewhere.

Just not (Try and follow me here ) as fast as we are using it.
(By a few billion times)


So I suspect that peak oil will actually occur. Or possibly has.

Clear?

Dave